NH-SEN 2020: Put a Cork in it

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

What counties do you guys see Shaheen winning? I see her sweeping all of them except Belknap, tbh.

Probably not Carroll or Coos.   I think those two are mostly gone, it doesn't matter much though.

Rockingham will be close most likely.  

Not only did Hassan almost win Coos in 2016, but so did Van Ostern. Its still winnable for the Democrats. It did not even vote a full single point to the right of the state in the latter case. Shaheen also took over 62% of the vote there in 2014.

[IceSpear]

Without Sununu it's hard to see Shaheen losing. She's likely to outperform the Democratic nominee by at least a few points, which in NH should almost certainly be enough barring a red wave. Likely D.

[free my dawg]

So, quick post-Sununu candidate profile:

Corky Messner: Generic Carpetbagging Businessman™. Retired army vet, most famous for working alongside part of the Chipotle staff while he was on their general counsel. At least would self-fund enough to make it competitive. The only problem is his lack of residency. Messner is much closer to Scott Brown than Maura Sullivan, at least owning property here, but he has only lived here for a year. He's very likely to get in, hiring staff and doing tours and stuff.

Overall, he seems like he could make things at least competitive if 2020's the right year. He's got the ability to self-fund and seems closer to Generic R than Offensive R. The only problem is:

Bill O'Brien: Former Speaker of the House and arch-conservative. Most famous for alienating a large amount of the House, failing (yet again) to pass RTW despite a supermajority, and turning his supermajority into a minority in one cycle. He actually failed to take back the Speakership in 2014 after the sane wing of the party struck a deal with Democrats to elect one of theirs (Shawn Jasper) as speaker. After a quixotic exploration of a primary run against Kelly Ayotte, he retired.

Despite his flaws, O'Brien still has a strong following in the party, and I think he'll win the primary. You also have another candidate:

Donald Bolduc: Recently retired brigadier general. Has made a lot of waves in the veteran community for advocating for veterans with PTSD. Was worried about attracting fundraisers, but is in. Has secured establishment support.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu also needs to be defeated for reelection, Dems don't want him to run against Hassan.

[SnowLabrador]

Sununu also needs to be defeated for reelection, Dems don't want him to run against Hassan.

As someone who lives just south of New Hampshire, I'm not optimistic about that. New England is the land of ridiculously popular Republican governors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu also needs to be defeated for reelection, Dems don't want him to run against Hassan.

As someone who lives just south of New Hampshire, I'm not optimistic about that. New England is the land of ridiculously popular Republican governors.

Molly Kelly came from 15 points down, to rally to lose by 7 points, when Sununu was favored in 2018. With Shaheen winning, Molly Kelly or Marchard  can repeat this. As election time nears: NH tends to get close. Ayotte was favored too, and lost narrowly to Hassen in a presidential year. Dems in 2020, presidential year can duplicate Hassan's underdog victory over Ayotte.

[Politician]

Watch SNJC still screech "NH is a tossup" even if O'Brien wins the nomination.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/nhpr/status/1143194930476724224

Bolduc is in. He seems to have attracted the support of the national establishment as well. He generally seems to toe the party line on issues, except he opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest.

O'Brien is already taking shots at him and Messner - I apparently missed this in June - so that leads more credence to him running for Senate as well. I still think the primary leans towards him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan is more than Shaheen

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/nhpr/status/1143194930476724224

Bolduc is in. He seems to have attracted the support of the national establishment as well. He generally seems to toe the party line on issues, except he opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest.

O'Brien is already taking shots at him and Messner - I apparently missed this in June - so that leads more credence to him running for Senate as well. I still think the primary leans towards him.

Seems like a solid GOP candidate, no Sununu ofc though, and as a consequence of that reality, I say Shaheen fortunately survives by 4-5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GoP arent winning NH in a presidential year

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Let's just say that two Dons will be winning in New Hampshire on November 2020 rather than just one!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's just say that two Dons will be winning in New Hampshire on November 2020 rather than just one!

Wow that's so clever, did you come up with that one all on your own?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Let's just say that two Dons will be winning in New Hampshire on November 2020 rather than just one!

Wow that's so clever, did you come up with that one all on your own?

Thank you. And yes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's just say that two Dons will be winning in New Hampshire on November 2020 rather than just one!

Wow that's so clever, did you come up with that one all on your own?

Thank you. And yes.

Very nice.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm very skeptical that a candidate opposed to rape and incest exceptions for abortion can win in New Hampshire. Don't even see that being a successful primary platform there, all else equal.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I'm very skeptical that a candidate opposed to rape and incest exceptions for abortion can win in New Hampshire. Don't even see that being a successful primary platform there, all else equal.

Yeah, if he wins the primary this moves to Safe D. it will not be close despite what certain concern trolls in this thread will say.

[Jon Tester]

I'm getting Allan Weh vibes from this guy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Shaheen by 6 or 7.

[free my dawg]

I see NYCMM hasn't lost a step.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only Ayotte or a Sununu can beat Shaheen

[SnowLabrador]

Only Ayotte or a Sununu can beat Shaheen

I really don't think Ayotte will run.

[S019]

Watch SNJC Politician still screech "NH IA is a tossup" even if O'Brien Greenfield wins the nomination.

FTFY


To clarify, O'Brien would underperform Trump badly, he is a far-right nut, and Shaheen would wash the floor with him, Lean/Likely D with O'Brien

[free my dawg]

Watch SNJC Politician still screech "NH IA is a tossup" even if O'Brien Greenfield wins the nomination.

FTFY


To clarify, O'Brien would underperform Trump badly, he is a far-right nut, and Shaheen would wash the floor with him, Lean/Likely D with O'Brien

The problem isn't that he's a far-right nut. The second-in-command in the House is a birther who makes O'Brien look sane by comparison, and has been generally fine despite making national news for saying Hillary should be shot. Hell, I'd venture as far as to say that a less offensive Trumpist would have beaten Hassan in 2016.

The problem is that O'Brien is a loser.

[Politician]

O'Brien is officially in.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Former-House-Speaker-O-Brien-seeking-US-Senate-seat-27206768