LA-LJR (D): Edwards +28 1st round, +20 vs. Abraham/+28 vs. Rispone H2H

[ON Progressive]

First round:
John Bel Edwards (D) 45
Ralph Abraham (R) 17
Eddie Rispone (R) 4

Head-to-head:
John Bel Edwards (D) 47
Ralph Abraham (R) 27

John Bel Edwards (D) 47
Eddie Rispone (R) 19

https://www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2019/01/28/poll-gov-edwards-has-big-lead-abraham-rispone-still-unknown/2699530002/

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

With this being an internal, I'll stick with lean D.

[UncleSam]

Kind of surprised an internal has him at only 47, but they probably just didn’t push undecided voters much.

[Politician]

Likely R. Polarization, and Louisiana is inelastic.

[LimoLiberal]

Likely R bordering on Safe R. Below 50 in your own poll? DOA.

[Xing]

It's pretty clear that popular governors tend to get re-elected. I don't see how that contradicts the reality of high polarization at the federal level.

[ON Progressive]

Likely R bordering on Safe R. Below 50 in your own poll? DOA.

This isn't a campaign internal, it's an internal for some Dem leaning charter school advocacy group (yuck).

[Alabama_Indy10]

With this being an internal, I'll stick with lean D.

[Politician]

Likely R bordering on Safe R. Below 50 in your own poll? DOA.

Limo continues to defy parody.

[DaWN]

Clear Lean D race is Lean D.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

POLAAAAARIZAAATION
INELASTTTTIIICC DEEEEEP SOUUUTH
TRRRUMMMPP RAALLLIIEEESS

If the deep south is not inelastic, why did Jones only defeat Moore by 2%?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Likely R bordering on Safe R. Below 50 in your own poll? DOA.

For once I'm in agreement with you. It's difficult to see how he wins the runoff with how inelastic southern whites are. But people here seriously think Hood has a chance to win as a Democrat in f***ing MS of all places, so I'm not surprised that people here think it leans D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This looks like a Manchin ish scenario. Starts with big lead, but consistently around 50 if not a tad lower. This will tighten as the undecideds inevitably break GOP, and polarization makes it even closer, and it will be within 5 points either way. Tossup, but tilt D with gun to my head.

[Del Tachi]

Likely D, as it has been all along

Popular governors don't lose reelection in off-off-cycle elections where all the media/fundraising attention will be going to 2020 anyway

[ElectionsGuy]

Edwards is definitely favored but I find it hard to believe below 30% will go Republican, even at this early stage. I think this is a name recognition thing right now more than anything.

[MT Treasurer]

POLAAAAARIZAAATION
INELASTTTTIIICC DEEEEEP SOUUUTH
TRRRUMMMPP RAALLLIIEEESS

If the deep south is not inelastic, why did Jones only defeat Moore by 2%?

If the Deep South was as inelastic as people are making it out to be, Jones and JBE would have never won their respective races. MD was considered the most inelastic blue state in the country before Hogan won by 12 points in a Democratic tsunami even as the state elected a Democratic Senator by 35 points. Popular governors tend to win reelection, as simple as that, and JBE is a pretty good fit for Louisiana. Trump's rallies and endorsements will have about the same impact in MS/KY/LA that they had in WV in 2018. This race is basically Likely D, closer to Lean D than Safe D, and there’s no way JBE isn’t the favorite here, especially in an off-off-year where Democrats are far more motivated than Republicans.

[President Johnson]

It's what Lou Barletta would say: #55percentdontwantedwards

All kidding aside, I think JBE is fine. Lean/likely Democratic.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd love to hear Technocracy Timmy's take on this. Not being cynical lol I just wonder what he thinks because he's pretty pessimistic about dem chances in Louisiana

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'd love to hear Technocracy Timmy's take on this. Not being cynical lol I just wonder what he thinks because he's pretty pessimistic about dem chances in Louisiana

An internal 9 months out suggests that JBE will win so hard that the Republican’s best chances is to Get 27% in a state like Louisiana where even David Vitter got 44%?

Sounds like an incredible poll. Can’t wait for Senator Bredesen.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Likely R. Polarization, and Louisiana is inelastic.

Bill Clinton/Edwin Edwards 2020! They will sweep the south 1992 style. #Populism.

[Lachi]

if he this near 50 when the undecided figure is that high, you would think he'd be in a pretty good position.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Him being under 50 is the key to this. Early in the cycle, there's always a cohort on the other side who refuses to answer one of the H2H matchups because they believe it will not occur, and that cohort gets recorded as Undecided. They come home in the end.

[LoneStarDem]

JBE will win reelection very easily without a runoff with 57%. The big question is whether LA Dems can win some of the down-ballot statewide offices & gain seats in the LA State Legislature ?