If Vermont became a Canadian province

[King of Kensington]

...how would it vote in federal elections?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Liberal


It would be a solid Progressive Conservative province  all the way till the merger (even winning VT in 1993) then go Liberal in 2004 and become a solidly Liberal province from then on forward

[King of Kensington]

A province of Vermont would get 5 or 6 electoral constituencies.

[Former President tack50]

From my very limited understanding of Canadian politics I imagine it would be very similar to the Maritime provinces and thus pretty much safe Liberal?

Alternatively, if it joined Canada very early on, it might simply be part of Quebec and thus vote pretty much the same as rural Quebec?

[Tintrlvr]

Definitely Liberal in the rural areas. I could see Burlington and Brattleboro voting NDP, though. Historically PC until the 90s, of course.

[Continential]

The Bloc could have a presence as there would be more French people.

[Tintrlvr]

A province of Vermont would get 5 or 6 electoral constituencies.

They'd probably have way more unless they were admitted tomorrow because of the historical rules around allocation that result in, e.g., the Maritimes being way over-represented. My guess is around 10 seats but possibly more.

[Tintrlvr]

Definitely Liberal in the rural areas. I could see Burlington and Brattleboro voting NDP, though. Historically PC until the 90s, of course.

I drew a six-district Vermont but can't upload the map at work. Anyway:

Connecticut Valley: Likely Lib (over NDP) (alternate name: Brattleboro--Springfield)
Green Mountains: Likely Lib (over Con) (alternate name: Rutland--Bennington)
Montpelier--Middlebury: Lean Lib (over NDP)*
Burlington: Lean NDP (over Lib)
Champlain: Likely Lib (over Con)**
Northeast Kingdom: Lean Lib (over Con)***

*This is kind of a leftovers district after the other obvious combinations are put together so no good regional name
**This is the remaining Burlington suburbs and points north along Lake Champlain
***I didn't undersize this district, but in Canada this district would probably be a lot smaller than the others (and Burlington and Champlain would probably be oversized) and might be a toss-up or even Lean Con as a result

[Antonio the Sixth]

A province of Vermont would get 5 or 6 electoral constituencies.

They'd probably have way more unless they were admitted tomorrow because of the historical rules around allocation that result in, e.g., the Maritimes being way over-represented. My guess is around 10 seats but possibly more.

Based on the population/seat ratios of NS, NB and NFL (PEI excluded since it's way smaller), Vermont should have anywhere between 7 and 9 seats. 8 seems about right.

[MaxQue]

See Eastern Townships, except language, they are very similar.

[Tintrlvr]

A province of Vermont would get 5 or 6 electoral constituencies.

They'd probably have way more unless they were admitted tomorrow because of the historical rules around allocation that result in, e.g., the Maritimes being way over-represented. My guess is around 10 seats but possibly more.

Based on the population/seat ratios of NS, NB and NFL (PEI excluded since it's way smaller), Vermont should have anywhere between 7 and 9 seats. 8 seems about right.

I'd agree but Vermont had a much higher population in the 19th century relative to its population today than NB/NS did (e.g., NS and NB had about a third of their modern populations in 1861, but Vermont had about half of its modern population in 1860).

Wikipedia doesn't have pre-Confederation data for Newfoundland but anyway it's a bit different since it didn't join Canada until the 1940s.

[Intell]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

[King of Kensington]

What happens in 2011?

[Tintrlvr]

What happens in 2011?

On my map:

Connecticut Valley: Lib hold (narrowly over NDP in a close three-way race)
Green Mountains: Con GAIN from Lib (was very marginal in 2008 but Cons get a huge swing to them in 2011 to make it the most Con seat in Vermont)
Montpelier--Middlebury: NDP GAIN from Lib (Libs fall to third)
Burlington: NDP hold
Champlain: Con GAIN from Lib (the shock result, very narrow margin, NDP surprisingly strong)
Northeast Kingdom: Con hold (was Con GAIN from Lib in 2006 or 2008)

Basically, a near wipe-out for the Libs, and I might be generous to have them holding Connecticut Valley.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

BQ does not compete outside Québec - that's in the name. It's a provincial party, not a linguistic one. There are numerous French minorities is almost all Canadian Provinces, but BQ doesn't care about them.

[Intell]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

BQ does not compete outside Québec - that's in the name. It's a provincial party, not a linguistic one. There are numerous French minorities is almost all Canadian Provinces, but BQ doesn't care about them.

Then Safe Liberal, with even stronger safe liberal in french areas, with NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

BQ does not compete outside Québec - that's in the name. It's a provincial party, not a linguistic one. There are numerous French minorities is almost all Canadian Provinces, but BQ doesn't care about them.

Then Safe Liberal, with even stronger safe liberal in french areas, with NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

Do you think Vermont would have been an old Progressive Conservative stronghold

[Intell]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

BQ does not compete outside Québec - that's in the name. It's a provincial party, not a linguistic one. There are numerous French minorities is almost all Canadian Provinces, but BQ doesn't care about them.

Then Safe Liberal, with even stronger safe liberal in french areas, with NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

Do you think Vermont would have been an old Progressive Conservative stronghold

No.

[DC Al Fine]

I think we're understating the Tories here, quite dramatically in some cases. Rural Anglo areas tend to vote Tory. We can put in a fudge factor for it's progressiveness/similarity to the Maritimes, but let's not forget this is a place that Donald Trump got 30% in. That's astronomical by Canadian standards. My guess is that it would be swingy, and that the NDP/Greens would overperform compared to say rural southern Ontario or the rural Maritimes.

See Eastern Townships, except language, they are very similar.

That's a very big "except"

[Gass3268]

Could there be any effect of being surrounded on three sides by a foreign country that could alter their political view points?

[DC Al Fine]

Safe Liberal. With BQ presence in french areas and NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

BQ does not compete outside Québec - that's in the name. It's a provincial party, not a linguistic one. There are numerous French minorities is almost all Canadian Provinces, but BQ doesn't care about them.

Then Safe Liberal, with even stronger safe liberal in french areas, with NDP being quite strong in Franklin/Grand Isle/Chittenden Counties.

Do you think Vermont would have been an old Progressive Conservative stronghold

No.

Why?

Could there be any effect of being surrounded on three sides by a foreign country that could alter their political view points?

Good point hadn't thought of that.