CT-GOV 2022: Why I think a CT GOPer will win

[Suburbia]

Connecticut has it's third consecutive Democratic gubernatorial term in Ned Lamont, the liberal darling in 2006 against centrist Joseph I. Lieberman.

All this decade (the 2010s), Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont won close elections.

In 2010, Malloy beat blue-blood Northeasterner Tom Foley by 0.5 points. In 2014, Malloy beat Foley again by 2 points, and in 2018 Lamont beat Stefanowski by 3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election

I can see Lamont losing because of the tax issue, remember MA votes R occasionally for governor, I can see it in 2022.

[Continential]

I knew that this was a bronz thread since I read the title

[Not Me, Us]

Maybe if it's a dem midterm, but if Trump wins reelection, then there's no chance.

[Xing]

Maybe if it's a dem midterm, but if Trump wins reelection, then there's no chance.

And I'd say his approvals would have to be at Malloy levels for the race to be competitive.

[choclatechip45]

It will depend if the CT GOP learns anything from losing in 2018. Right now it doesn't seem like they have. If they run a candidate who is socially liberal and denounces trumpism (if he's still president) they might be able to win. I think they fact Republicans lost seats in the state house and state senate is a big warning sign for Republicans and it might be harder for them to win in the future.

[UncleSam]

Definitely possible with the right candidate regardless of who is president, but also unlikely regardless of who is president. Kind of like KS for Dems.

[Free Bird]

It will depend if the CT GOP learns anything from losing in 2018. Right now it doesn't seem like they have. If they run a candidate who is socially liberal and denounces trumpism (if he's still president) they might be able to win. I think they fact Republicans lost seats in the state house and state senate is a big warning sign for Republicans and it might be harder for them to win in the future.

Can confirm they recognize Trump hate in their previous rich burb base as a problem. Romano also strongly hinted he hated that a conservative ticket won the primary in the first place and would prefer a runoff system to get the real pulse of the primary base, which he thinks is still Rell-esque.

As for OP, it really does depend on the candidate, if Ned runs, if he's unpopular if he does, and who's President. With the stuff the GA is proposing I could see a lot of people who voted Dem the last 3 times maybe finally snapping if all the right conditions are met.

[ON Progressive]

You people really did learn nothing from 2010, 2014, or 2018.

Connecticut is not going Republican. Full stop.

[MT Treasurer]

You people really did learn nothing from 2010, 2014, or 2018.

Connecticut is not going Republican. Full stop.

This. But remember, this is the forum where people unironically believe that VA is still a swing state and that IA is more likely to flip than AZ in 2020 (for both SEN and PRES).

[Progressive Pessimist]

You people really did learn nothing from 2010, 2014, or 2018.

Connecticut is not going Republican. Full stop.

[choclatechip45]

It will depend if the CT GOP learns anything from losing in 2018. Right now it doesn't seem like they have. If they run a candidate who is socially liberal and denounces trumpism (if he's still president) they might be able to win. I think they fact Republicans lost seats in the state house and state senate is a big warning sign for Republicans and it might be harder for them to win in the future.

Can confirm they recognize Trump hate in their previous rich burb base as a problem. Romano also strongly hinted he hated that a conservative ticket won the primary in the first place and would prefer a runoff system to get the real pulse of the primary base, which he thinks is still Rell-esque.

As for OP, it really does depend on the candidate, if Ned runs, if he's unpopular if he does, and who's President. With the stuff the GA is proposing I could see a lot of people who voted Dem the last 3 times maybe finally snapping if all the right conditions are met.

Romano did a web series with Carl Higbie and now the Greenwich GOP just invited him to do a series on Civil discourse. The guy was too racist for the Trump Administration.  I wouldn't be surprised if the CT GOP pushes Higbie to run again for 4th district or statewide in the future. It's kind of amazing Romano is still the CT GOP chairman after a disatorius midterm since he is the one who decided on the strategy to be closely aligned to Trump. They were expected to pick up seats in the state house and state senate.

[Free Bird]

It will depend if the CT GOP learns anything from losing in 2018. Right now it doesn't seem like they have. If they run a candidate who is socially liberal and denounces trumpism (if he's still president) they might be able to win. I think they fact Republicans lost seats in the state house and state senate is a big warning sign for Republicans and it might be harder for them to win in the future.

Can confirm they recognize Trump hate in their previous rich burb base as a problem. Romano also strongly hinted he hated that a conservative ticket won the primary in the first place and would prefer a runoff system to get the real pulse of the primary base, which he thinks is still Rell-esque.

As for OP, it really does depend on the candidate, if Ned runs, if he's unpopular if he does, and who's President. With the stuff the GA is proposing I could see a lot of people who voted Dem the last 3 times maybe finally snapping if all the right conditions are met.

Romano did a web series with Carl Higbie and now the Greenwich GOP just invited him to do a series on Civil discourse. The guy was too racist for the Trump Administration.  I wouldn't be surprised if the CT GOP pushes Higbie to run again for 4th district or statewide in the future. It's kind of amazing Romano is still the CT GOP chairman after a disatorius midterm since he is the one who decided on the strategy to be closely aligned to Trump. They were expected to pick up seats in the state house and state senate.

He did mention he wasn't sure that he would run for another term

[Free Bird]

You people really did learn nothing from 2010, 2014, or 2018.

Connecticut is not going Republican. Full stop.

2010 and 2014 were close enough to warrant reason to believe. I've learned from my mistakes in 2018 and I can say that I know my state with particular confidence now. None of them were blowouts, nor was a good candidate ever nominated or a proper ground game implemented to match Chris Murphy's emerging machine. We haven't seen what happens when everything goes right for the state party, and the day they lose when everything does go right for them from the getgo and after they do everything in their own power right is the day I lose hope. Until then, sit the  down.

[wesmoorenerd]

If Trump wins reelection, Lamont becomes Malloy levels of unpopular, and the CTGOP nominates someone palatable?

Maaaybe.

[adrac]

the real pulse of the primary base, which he thinks is still Rell-esque.

Good luck with that.

[smoltchanov]

Theoretically possible. But practically - unlikely (and i am anything, but Lamont's fan). Even in New England "base" (which usually dictates candidate's choice in partisan and rather low turnout primaries, and even more so - at conventions) becomes more pro-Trump, not less (look, for example, at state party chairman election in Massachusetts, where ultra-right wing defeated former state House member was able to beat Baker-supported moderate). It seems, that "sane" Republicans practically abandoned their party, becoming either Democrats (with much better career perspectives) or Independents.  Mirror image of situation in white areas of rural South......

[choclatechip45]

It will depend if the CT GOP learns anything from losing in 2018. Right now it doesn't seem like they have. If they run a candidate who is socially liberal and denounces trumpism (if he's still president) they might be able to win. I think they fact Republicans lost seats in the state house and state senate is a big warning sign for Republicans and it might be harder for them to win in the future.

Can confirm they recognize Trump hate in their previous rich burb base as a problem. Romano also strongly hinted he hated that a conservative ticket won the primary in the first place and would prefer a runoff system to get the real pulse of the primary base, which he thinks is still Rell-esque.

As for OP, it really does depend on the candidate, if Ned runs, if he's unpopular if he does, and who's President. With the stuff the GA is proposing I could see a lot of people who voted Dem the last 3 times maybe finally snapping if all the right conditions are met.

Romano did a web series with Carl Higbie and now the Greenwich GOP just invited him to do a series on Civil discourse. The guy was too racist for the Trump Administration.  I wouldn't be surprised if the CT GOP pushes Higbie to run again for 4th district or statewide in the future. It's kind of amazing Romano is still the CT GOP chairman after a disatorius midterm since he is the one who decided on the strategy to be closely aligned to Trump. They were expected to pick up seats in the state house and state senate.

He did mention he wasn't sure that he would run for another term

I guess he was waiting for his 13k bonus to state his plans.

[Sir Mohamed]

I've not been following CT closely in 2018, but at some point Lamont sounded as if he was just serving one term.

[smoltchanov]

I've not been following CT closely in 2018, but at some point Lamont sounded as if he was just serving one term.

IMHO - rather weak candidate, and potentially - a weak governor too. But against conservative Stefanowski "D" letter after name was enough, despite all this and abysmal Malloy's ratings...

[Intell]

Entirely possible, it is CT and they love moderate republicans there.

[smoltchanov]

Entirely possible, it is CT and they love moderate republicans there.

The problem is: Republican "base" hates them more, then even Democrats. The same problem exist in Democratic party too, but - slightly less acute...

[President Johnson]

I've not been following CT closely in 2018, but at some point Lamont sounded as if he was just serving one term.

IMHO - rather weak candidate, and potentially - a weak governor too. But against conservative Stefanowski "D" letter after name was enough, despite all this and abysmal Malloy's ratings...

I think Lamont will run again and easily win reelection. Regardless of who is the president. If he retires, Susan Bysiewicz would have the best shot to become governor.

[smoltchanov]

I've not been following CT closely in 2018, but at some point Lamont sounded as if he was just serving one term.

IMHO - rather weak candidate, and potentially - a weak governor too. But against conservative Stefanowski "D" letter after name was enough, despite all this and abysmal Malloy's ratings...

I think Lamont will run again and easily win reelection. Regardless of who is the president. If he retires, Susan Bysiewicz would have the best shot to become governor.

May be. But mostly because Republicans now tend to run a conservative idiots even in New England (2018 candidate in Maine, and primary challenges to Baker in MA and Scott in VT are proofs), Jodi Rell-type candidate would have very good chances of beating Lamont, but rather low - to be nominated.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP underestimating Ned Lamont again
 CT is competetive, but tilts Dem

[Woody]

You people really did learn nothing from 2010, 2014, or 2018.

Connecticut is not going Republican. Full stop.

This. But remember, this is the forum where people unironically believe that VA is still a swing state and that IA is more likely to flip than AZ in 2020 (for both SEN and PRES).

LMAO Lamont only won by 3 points a midterm year, not to mention the fact that he didn't get a majority of the vote. Stefanowski was not even that moderate, if he had been a little more moderate he would have most likely won. If Lamont is anywhere near Malloy's approval he will most likely end up with the same fate as Tom Corbett.