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  Canadian by-elections, 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2019  (Read 6525 times)
Lord Halifax
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« on: January 29, 2019, 05:13:42 pm »

For discussion of all Canadian by-elections (federal and provincial) in 2019. In the interest of clarity they should be in a separate thread and not in the one for 2018.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2019, 11:32:51 am »

Ottawa city council votes to hold a by-election in Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward (for April 15) to fill the vacancy of outgoing councillor Tobi Nussbaum, who has been appointed as the CEO of the National Capital Commission.

Nussbaum was a centre-left Liberal, who first won the seat in 2014, defeating former regional chair Peter Clark, a conservative who had only won in 2010 due to a massive vote split with 26% of the vote.

The ward is one of the city's "urban" wards, so it could be won by a progressive, though it typically votes Liberal on a provincial and federal level. It includes the very wealthy Rockcliffe Park neighbourhood, but it doesn't have a very large population.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2019, 04:24:41 pm »

I know it was discussed in the other forum, but today is Nanaimo by-election in BC.  This could be critical since if the NDP hold it, then they will likely last through this year, but if the BC Liberals pick it up possibility of a spring election.  Greens have already warned if NDP loses this, they will withdraw support although Weaver has made threats before only to pull back.  Notwithstanding Mainstreet's poll, I still think the NDP has a slight edge based on the history of the riding.  But the BC Liberals could pull off an upset for two reasons:

1.  By-elections typically tend to have low turnouts and those angry at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with the job they are doing.
2.  By-elections skew heavily towards older voters who most polls show BC Liberals on a provincewide basis are leading while younger voters where NDP has a strong lead tend to be less likely to show up in by-elections as opposed to general elections.

I think if this were a general election, I am pretty sure it would go NDP as by-elections take on different dynamics and although the NDP has angered some, they haven't had any major screw ups and most who strongly dislike them probably never voted NDP to begin with and never would.  Amongst the 40% who voted for them in May 2017, I get the impression most of them are pretty happy with how they've governed, while most of the 40% who voted BC Liberal are not and Greens are a mix.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2019, 11:03:40 pm »

Had John Turmel run in the Nanaimo byelection, he would have won. Sad
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Adam T
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2019, 11:43:40 pm »

First two polls reporting

Lib 92
NDP 79
Green 13
Conservative 6
Other 2
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2019, 11:46:52 pm »

3 polls

Lib 164
NDP 132
Green 21
Conservative 9
Other 3
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Adam T
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2019, 11:53:03 pm »

4 polls

Lib 202
NDP 176
Green 28
Conservative 11
Other 3
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Adam T
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2019, 11:55:40 pm »

5 polls

Lib 236
NDP 261
Green 35
Conservative 14
Other 5
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Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2019, 11:59:12 pm »

7 polls

Lib 289
NDP 398
Green 58
Conservative 17
Other 7
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Adam T
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2019, 12:03:20 am »

11 polls

Lib: 414
NDP: 644
Green: 96
Con: 25
Libertarian: 23
Van Isle: 7
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trebor204
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2019, 12:04:54 am »

The Libertarian candidate got 22 votes in the last 4 polls, only got 1 vote in the first 7 polls.
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Adam T
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2019, 12:05:32 am »

14 polls

Lib: 579
NDP: 875
Green: 131
Conservative: 33
Other: 32
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Adam T
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2019, 12:07:51 am »

16 polls

Lib: 728
NDP: 995
Green: 165
Con: 38
Other: 32
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Adam T
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« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2019, 12:10:57 am »

22 polls

Lib: 1,260
NDP: 1,475
Green: 221
Con: 61
Libertarian: 29
Van Isle: 9
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Adam T
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« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2019, 12:14:25 am »

26 polls

Lib: 1,706
NDP: 1,880
Green: 284
Con: 72
Libertarian: 32
Van Isle: 11
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Adam T
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« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2019, 12:17:10 am »

31 polls
Lib: 1,971
NDP: 2,321
Green: 360
Conservative: 87
Libertarian: 33
Van Isle: 11
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Adam T
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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2019, 12:20:06 am »

33 polls

Liberal: 2,023
NDP: 2,426
Green: 380
Conservative: 92
Libertarian: 35
Van Isle: 12
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Adam T
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2019, 12:22:54 am »

40 polls

Liberal: 2,392
NDP: 3,077
Green: 473
Conservative: 111
Libertarian: 38
Van Isle: 18
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Adam T
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« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2019, 12:26:08 am »

43 polls

Liberal: 2,717
NDP: 3,495
Green: 526
Conservative: 122
Libertarian: 40
Van Isle: 18
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Adam T
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« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2019, 12:29:11 am »

46 polls

Liberal: 3,080
NDP: 3,838
Green: 573
Conservative: 133
Libertarian: 45
Van Isle: 23
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2019, 12:32:38 am »

51 polls

Liberal: 3,353
NDP: 4,180
Green: 608
Conservative: 147
Libertarian: 46
Van Isle: 25
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Make Politics Boring Again
exnaderite
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2019, 12:35:51 am »

Looks like much of the green support tactically voted NDP.
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Adam T
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2019, 12:35:58 am »

53 polls

Liberal: 3,510
NDP: 4,366
Green: 629
Conservative: 165
Libertarian: 47
Van Isle: 27
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Adam T
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2019, 12:38:29 am »

58 polls

Liberal: 3,844
NDP: 4,780
Green: 696
Conservative: 178
Libertarian 53
Van Isle: 35

Van Isle Party momentum!
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2019, 12:41:02 am »

60 polls

Liberal: 4,120
NDP: 5,054
Green: 741
Conservative: 185
Libertarian: 57
Van Isle: 40
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