Canadian by-elections, 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2019  (Read 22292 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #125 on: February 25, 2019, 11:00:10 PM »
York-Simcoe 90 polls
Conservative 51-31-7.5

Outremont 104 polls
Liberal 42.5-26-13-9-7

Burnaby South 60 polls
NDP 39-26.5-21.5-11.5
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #126 on: February 25, 2019, 11:02:25 PM »
York-Simcoe 95 polls
Conservative 51-31-7

Burnaby South 65 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #127 on: February 25, 2019, 11:05:26 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2019, 11:09:04 PM by 136or142 »
York-Simcoe 100/136 polls
Conservative 51-31-7 John Turmel 48 votes!
Turnout so far 11,163/83,179 registered voters (13.42%)

Outremont 110/170 polls
Liberal 43-26-13-9-7
Turnout so far 7,344 of 70,414 registered voters (10.43%)

Burnaby South 70/196 polls
NDP 38-26.5-22-11
Turnout so far 5,371 of 76,204 registered voters (7.05%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #128 on: February 25, 2019, 11:10:01 PM »
Burnaby South 75 polls
NDP 39-26-22-11
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trebor204
TREBOR204
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« Reply #129 on: February 25, 2019, 11:10:10 PM »
CBC projects Jagmeet Singh to win Burnaby South
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #130 on: February 25, 2019, 11:12:15 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2019, 11:15:18 PM by 136or142 »
Burnaby South 80 polls
NDP 39-26-22-11
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #131 on: February 25, 2019, 11:17:17 PM »
Outremont 115 polls
Liberal 43-26-13-9-6.5

Burnaby South 85 polls
NDP 38.5-27-22-11
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mileslunn
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« Reply #132 on: February 25, 2019, 11:17:35 PM »
So far I would say things are largely turning out as expected.

Liberals: Fairly decent showing.  Up in Outremont, down a bit in York-Simcoe but still north of 30% and usually when Liberals get above 30% there they form government.  Burnaby South underperforming a bit.

Conservatives: Not horrible, but not the kind of numbers that would suggest they are on their way to forming government.  Getting just north of 50% in York-Simcoe so similar to 2015 although surprisingly it is the minor PC Party not People's Party who is splitting the vote.  Outremont getting trashed as expected.  Burnaby South also doing poorly although with People's Party having a well known candidate that seems to be eating into them unlike other two ridings.

NDP: Actually not too bad a night.  Winning Burnaby South by an increased margin and in Outremont still a solid second and over 25% so not totally cratering.  Getting trashed in York-Simcoe as expected.

Bloc Quebecois: No bump, but Outremont not exactly a BQ friendly.

Green Party: A fairly decent night as double digits in Outremont so showing some support there.

People's Party: Getting trashed in York-Simcoe and Outremont so doesn't look like a major threat for vote splitting.  Doing reasonably well in Burnaby South, but could be due to high profile candidate so not sure enough to create a wave for them.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #133 on: February 25, 2019, 11:19:35 PM »
Burnaby South 90 polls
NDP 39-27-22-11
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #134 on: February 25, 2019, 11:22:41 PM »
York-Simcoe 105 polls
Conservative 52-31-7

Burnaby South 100/196 polls (just over half way)
NDP 38-27-22-11
8,657 registered voters of 76,204 so far (11.36%)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #135 on: February 25, 2019, 11:23:36 PM »
Burnaby South 105 polls
NDP 38-27-22-11
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #136 on: February 25, 2019, 11:27:32 PM »
Burnaby South 120 polls
NDP 38-26-22-12
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #137 on: February 25, 2019, 11:29:29 PM »
Burnaby South 125 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11.5
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #138 on: February 25, 2019, 11:32:46 PM »
Outremont 120 polls
Liberal 42-26-13.5-10

Burnaby South 130 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11.5
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #139 on: February 25, 2019, 11:35:15 PM »
York-Simcoe 109 polls
Conservative 53-30-7

Outremont 125 polls
Liberal 42-27-13-10

Burnaby South 135 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #140 on: February 25, 2019, 11:37:30 PM »
Burnaby South 140 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11

Which will be the first to finish reporting?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #141 on: February 25, 2019, 11:39:37 PM »
Outremont 130 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 145 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11
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Poirot
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« Reply #142 on: February 25, 2019, 11:41:09 PM »
Quote from: 136or142 on February 25, 2019, 11:37:30 PM
Burnaby South 140 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11

Which will be the first to finish reporting?

I will guess Burnaby, start last finish first
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #143 on: February 25, 2019, 11:42:13 PM »
York Simcoe 115 polls
Conservative 53-30-7

Outremont 135 polls
Liberal 41-28-13-10-6

Burnaby South 150 polls
NDP 38-26-22.5-11
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trebor204
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« Reply #144 on: February 25, 2019, 11:42:38 PM »
Quote from: 136or142 on February 25, 2019, 11:39:37 PM
Outremont 130 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 145 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11

Burnaby starting counting 30 minutes later than the other 2 ridings but have more polls reporting, however they do have 196 polls vs 136/170.
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adma
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« Reply #145 on: February 25, 2019, 11:44:02 PM »
Quote from: mileslunn on February 25, 2019, 11:17:35 PM

Liberals: Fairly decent showing.  Up in Outremont, down a bit in York-Simcoe but still north of 30% and usually when Liberals get above 30% there they form government.  Burnaby South underperforming a bit.

I'd say *Outremont* is more the underperformance--at least relative to post-Mulcair expectations.  While given how much was invested in Jagmeet, as well as the candidate switcheroo and the division in the non-Jagmeet vote, BS was sort of what could be expected...
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adma
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« Reply #146 on: February 25, 2019, 11:46:05 PM »
And at this moment, NDP + Green *is* ahead of the Libs in Outremont (whether that'll hold, I don't know)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #147 on: February 25, 2019, 11:48:08 PM »
Outremont 145 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 155 polls
NDP 38-26-22.5-11.5
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #148 on: February 25, 2019, 11:52:40 PM »
Burnaby South 160 polls
NDP 38-25.5-23-11.5
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #149 on: February 25, 2019, 11:53:54 PM »
Outremont 150 polls
Liberal 41.5-2713-10-6

Burnaby South 165 polls
NDP 38-26-23-11
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