Who would win Ohio?
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Poll
Question: Who would win Ohio?
#1
Donald Trump		  
#2
Sherrod Brown		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Who would win Ohio?  (Read 1300 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: January 31, 2019, 10:21:23 AM »
?
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History505
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2019, 10:37:03 AM »
Brown.
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Politician
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2019, 10:38:52 AM »
Trump by 50 because muh 2016 trends and muh New Missouri!

Seriously, Brown by 2 or so.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2019, 10:40:04 AM »
Really depends on how Brown campaigns. Running for Senate and leaning on statewide issues won't work when he's trying to appeal to voters in, e.g., Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire (not to mention national donors) as a Presidential candidate.

All things considered I'd put odds at 4-1 that Trump would win this state.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2019, 10:41:29 AM »
Brown with less than 50%.  Ohio is a Republican-leaning state (and was before Obama or Trump or any other special "realigning" character), but Brown is a good fit and Trump would be losing nationally by a decent margin, IMO.
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Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2019, 10:46:58 AM »
Come on.  Romney lost big in Massachusetts in 2012.  Al Gore couldn't even win his home state in 2000 when the country was far less polarized.  Trump would obviously win Ohio.  It's delusional to think otherwise.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2019, 10:48:51 AM »
Quote from: jeb_arlo on January 31, 2019, 10:46:58 AM
Come on.  Romney lost big in Massachusetts in 2012.  Al Gore couldn't even win his home state in 2000 when the country was far less polarized.  Trump would obviously win Ohio.  It's delusional to think otherwise.

I don't think those are comparable examples, so I will gladly own the "delusional" label.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2019, 10:52:51 AM »
Quote from: Clinton Klobuchar Smith Walz Schultz voter on January 31, 2019, 10:40:04 AM
Really depends on how Brown campaigns. Running for Senate and leaning on statewide issues won't work when he's trying to appeal to voters in, e.g., Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire (not to mention national donors) as a Presidential candidate.

All things considered I'd put odds at 4-1 that Trump would win this state.

I think this is fair - Brown is still competitive in OH because he has been successful in divorcing himself from the national party, which would not be possible if he is the nominee. It of course depends on what issues become most important/the national environment, but in a 'neutral' year I would put it at Tossup/Tilt R,  with better odds for Brown than you give but still favoring Trump.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2019, 10:55:01 AM »
Quote from: Karpatsky on January 31, 2019, 10:52:51 AM
I think this is fair - Brown is still competitive in OH because he has been successful in divorcing himself from the national party, which would not be possible if he is the nominee. It of course depends on what issues become most important/the national environment, but in a 'neutral' year I would put it at Tossup/Tilt R,  with better odds for Brown than you give but still favoring Trump.

This!  You nailed it, Karpatsky.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2019, 10:55:48 AM »
Quote from: jeb_arlo on January 31, 2019, 10:46:58 AM
Come on.  Romney lost big in Massachusetts in 2012.  Al Gore couldn't even win his home state in 2000 when the country was far less polarized.  Trump would obviously win Ohio.  It's delusional to think otherwise.

Brown won Ohio 3 months ago. Romney hadn’t won Massachusetts for 10 years, Gore also hadn’t won in Tennessee for 10 years. Perhaps Trump would win Ohio against Brown, but it’s hardly “delusional” to think otherwise.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2019, 10:59:00 AM »

Is it really necessary to explain the difference between running as an incumbent Senator and running as the national Democratic party's candidate for president?
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Coldstream
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2019, 11:04:22 AM »
Quote from: jeb_arlo on January 31, 2019, 10:59:00 AM

Is it really necessary to explain the difference between running as an incumbent Senator and running as the national Democratic party's candidate for president?

You’re assuming he’d 1. campaign differently and 2. People in Ohio would care and not simply vote for the guy they know best. Trump didn’t win Ohio by such a huge margin, and is not so popular that he’s safe there. I’m not even saying you’re wrong, and in fact I think Trump probably would win, just that it’s ridiculous to act like it’s a sure thing either way.
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Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2019, 11:12:28 AM »
Quote from: Coldstream on January 31, 2019, 11:04:22 AM
You’re assuming he’d 1. campaign differently and 2. People in Ohio would care and not simply vote for the guy they know best. Trump didn’t win Ohio by such a huge margin, and is not so popular that he’s safe there. I’m not even saying you’re wrong, and in fact I think Trump probably would win, just that it’s ridiculous to act like it’s a sure thing either way.

Okay, I'll grant that I'm overstating my case.  I'm just appalled that so many here seem to think Brown would be a shoe-in.  My God, what self-delusion on this forum.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2019, 12:16:05 PM »
I don’t really buy that OH is going to vote 10+ points to the right of IA like this forum seems to believe, but Trump would definitely be favored to win the state even against Brown. As a presidential candidate, he’d obviously lose a lot of his crossover appeal for reasons already mentioned above. Lean R.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2019, 12:31:58 PM »
Likely R. Trump wins 53-46.
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mgop
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« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2019, 12:35:36 PM »
trump. sorry losers.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2019, 12:35:46 PM »
DJIA >= 25,000 -> Trump
DJIA < 25,000 -> Brown
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History505
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2019, 12:42:41 PM »
Talking into the mirror again I see.
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andjey
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« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2019, 12:56:11 PM »
Quote from: 2016 Trends are permanent on January 31, 2019, 10:38:52 AM
Trump by 50 because muh 2016 trends and muh New Missouri!

Seriously, Brown by 2 or so.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2019, 12:57:09 PM »
51-47 Trump
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2019, 02:44:01 PM »
Brown would make it closer than most Democrats, but in a close race, Trump would probably narrowly win it. Brown could carry Ohio if he's having a great night overall.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2019, 03:11:21 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 03:17:11 PM by olowakandi »
I think OHIO will vote Left in 2020 along with Iowa



Harris/Heinrich 343
Trump/Pence 195
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Big Abraham
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2019, 03:28:08 PM »
Yeah, Brown. He's one of the few prospective Democratic nominees who I can see actually winning the state
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2019, 03:51:46 PM »
Brown would win--would be close.  It would add to the 279 electoral votes he wins (Hillary's total plus PA, WI, and MI).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2019, 08:47:31 PM »
I'm really not sure, it would be extremely close either way though.
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