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  New Zealand political discussion thread
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Author Topic: New Zealand political discussion thread  (Read 597 times)
Pericles
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« on: February 01, 2019, 04:26:42 am »

This thread is where Atlas can discuss New Zealand politics and important developments in it. 2019 looks like a dramatic year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this would be a 'year of delivery' for her government(https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110251271/jacinda-ardern-says-2019-year-of-delivery-for-government), and it's hard to argue with that. "Ardern singled out climate change, housing, mental health, and the recommendations of the tax working group as key areas of focus." The government is however in trouble with its promises on housing, its Kiwibuild program is set to only complete 300 homes in its first year, short of the target of 1000 homes, with 100,000 homes being the target over the course of 10 years. In the next week the Tax Working Group will deliver its recommendations, and it is expected to recommend a controversial capital gains tax-which some consider a political liability for Labour. The opposition National Party sought to get out ahead of the tax debate by proposing to adjust tax brackets every 3 years based on inflation and Treasury recommendations to avoid 'bracket creep', though this proposal has been criticized as both unaffordable and having little impact on the cost of living. National has also had its own troubles with the ongoing Jami Lee-Ross scandal, which is a complicated story deserving at least one full post of its own and which has seen many acts of stupidity on the National Party side. There is some speculation that National leader Simon Bridges-who has very poor personal approval ratings-will be unseated as National Party leader. Despite this and Jacinda's popularity, the National Party's party vote appears to still be above 40%, but probably not enough to form a government and there has been very little polling in New Zealand lately. Of course the election isn't this year and given how quickly the political situation changed at the last election the outcome in 2020 cannot be predicted for certain.
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ethanhenare1
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2019, 01:04:42 am »

Most Recent Poll by Newshub doesn't look too good for National or Bridges. (I've only just started posting on this forum so I can't post links yet it seems but I've included the most notable info.)

National: 41.6%
Labour: 47.6%
NZFirst: 2.9%
Green: 5.1%

Preferred PM:
Ardern: 41.8%
Bridges: 5.0%
Collins: 6.2%

NZ First once again falls below the 5% mark required to enter government and the greens are on the very edge.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2019, 05:23:00 pm »

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group
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Gravelanche
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2019, 03:31:06 pm »

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

Does Bridges even contest the next election or does National try to make a play to change things up?
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Mike88
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2019, 03:45:22 pm »

First polls after the Christchurch shootings:

1 News Colmar Brunton poll(compared with the February poll)

48% Labour (+3)
40% National (-2)
  6% Green (nc)
  4% NSF (+1)
  1% ACT (nc)
  1% Others (nc)

Business NZ Reid Research poll (compared with the February poll)

49.6% Labour (+2.1)
41.3% National (-0.3)
  3.9% Green (-1.2)
  2.3% NZF (-0.6)
  2.9% Others
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2019, 04:29:41 pm »

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

Does Bridges even contest the next election or does National try to make a play to change things up?

Bridges' leadership certainly looks like it is in jeopardy. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/04/national-mps-speaking-out-against-leader-simon-bridges.html
Img

Judith Collins, the current Housing spokesperson for National, looks like the biggest threat to Bridges. She would be a risk for National but perhaps one worth taking given they are down 8 points against Labour and losing by a landslide once the coalition partners are added in. Collins has already drawn even with Bridges in the preferred Prime Minister polls. However given Collins is a polarizing figure a Scott Morrison scenario where someone sneaks up through the middle is possible, Rodney MP Mark Mitchell would be my bet for that role (Mitchell ran for the leadership in February 2018 and he said he dropped out on the day of the ballot, however on that day leaks came of him dropping out and he denied it at the time so Bridges may have committed dirty tricks and he tried to cover up for him to save the party face).
National may still be reluctant to change leaders given they don't want to go through the merry-go round of leadership changes and division that Labour experienced from 2008-2017. Their polling doesn't seem that bad given they're still in the 40s, which is much higher than Labour polled in Opposition or even higher than what Labour got in the last election. However their hopes of forming government seem to be fading given that Labour has surged ahead of them and they aren't in the high 40s where they'd probably need to be to form government on their own. Bridges hasn't performed very well-in his latest blunder after the Christchurch shooting National's petition on their website against joining the UN Migration Pact was deleted, which Bridges first attributed to routine website changes weeks before and when it was clear that wasn't true he blamed "an emotional junior staffer" despite the fact the person who deleted it was someone who had worked for the party for 6 years. Bridges hasn't quite escaped the Jami Lee Ross scandal with Ross still on the backbenches as an Independent and he is now being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office. It's not unheard of for leaders to come back from deep unpopularity, Helen Clark had 2% for preferred PM in 1996 and polled in the teens yet ran a strong campaign and came close behind National and then won the next election comfortably. However it seems unlikely that Bridges will be able to connect with the public and he'll probably not be leader by the next election at the way things are going.
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Lok
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2019, 07:45:17 pm »

Reaction to the Reid Research poll: wew lad
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