New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

This thread is where Atlas can discuss New Zealand politics and important developments in it. 2019 looks like a dramatic year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this would be a 'year of delivery' for her government(https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110251271/jacinda-ardern-says-2019-year-of-delivery-for-government), and it's hard to argue with that. "Ardern singled out climate change, housing, mental health, and the recommendations of the tax working group as key areas of focus." The government is however in trouble with its promises on housing, its Kiwibuild program is set to only complete 300 homes in its first year, short of the target of 1000 homes, with 100,000 homes being the target over the course of 10 years. In the next week the Tax Working Group will deliver its recommendations, and it is expected to recommend a controversial capital gains tax-which some consider a political liability for Labour. The opposition National Party sought to get out ahead of the tax debate by proposing to adjust tax brackets every 3 years based on inflation and Treasury recommendations to avoid 'bracket creep', though this proposal has been criticized as both unaffordable and having little impact on the cost of living. National has also had its own troubles with the ongoing Jami Lee-Ross scandal, which is a complicated story deserving at least one full post of its own and which has seen many acts of stupidity on the National Party side. There is some speculation that National leader Simon Bridges-who has very poor personal approval ratings-will be unseated as National Party leader. Despite this and Jacinda's popularity, the National Party's party vote appears to still be above 40%, but probably not enough to form a government and there has been very little polling in New Zealand lately. Of course the election isn't this year and given how quickly the political situation changed at the last election the outcome in 2020 cannot be predicted for certain.

[ethanhenare1]

Most Recent Poll by Newshub doesn't look too good for National or Bridges. (I've only just started posting on this forum so I can't post links yet it seems but I've included the most notable info.)

National: 41.6%
Labour: 47.6%
NZFirst: 2.9%
Green: 5.1%

Preferred PM:
Ardern: 41.8%
Bridges: 5.0%
Collins: 6.2%

NZ First once again falls below the 5% mark required to enter government and the greens are on the very edge.

[Pericles]

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

[Sestak]

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

Does Bridges even contest the next election or does National try to make a play to change things up?

[Mike88]

First polls after the Christchurch shootings:

1 News Colmar Brunton poll(compared with the February poll)

48% Labour (+3)
40% National (-2)
  6% Green (nc)
  4% NSF (+1)
  1% ACT (nc)
  1% Others (nc)

Business NZ Reid Research poll (compared with the February poll)

49.6% Labour (+2.1)
41.3% National (-0.3)
  3.9% Green (-1.2)
  2.3% NZF (-0.6)
  2.9% Others

[Pericles]

After a contentious public debate Jacinda Ardern had ruled out introducing a capital gains tax. Winston Peters' opposition as well as polling showing strong public opposition to the proposed tax appear to have been major factors in the decision, as Jacinda said there was "no mandate" for a CGT (yet ruled out getting a mandate for a CGT at the next election). Simon Bridges is probably done now that his last hope for some momentum has been eliminated, but it shows a disappointing lack of courage from the government at a time when their political capital is the highest.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/112099876/live-capital-gains-tax-ruled-out-by-government-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-tax-working-group

Does Bridges even contest the next election or does National try to make a play to change things up?

Bridges' leadership certainly looks like it is in jeopardy. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/04/national-mps-speaking-out-against-leader-simon-bridges.html

Judith Collins, the current Housing spokesperson for National, looks like the biggest threat to Bridges. She would be a risk for National but perhaps one worth taking given they are down 8 points against Labour and losing by a landslide once the coalition partners are added in. Collins has already drawn even with Bridges in the preferred Prime Minister polls. However given Collins is a polarizing figure a Scott Morrison scenario where someone sneaks up through the middle is possible, Rodney MP Mark Mitchell would be my bet for that role (Mitchell ran for the leadership in February 2018 and he said he dropped out on the day of the ballot, however on that day leaks came of him dropping out and he denied it at the time so Bridges may have committed dirty tricks and he tried to cover up for him to save the party face).
National may still be reluctant to change leaders given they don't want to go through the merry-go round of leadership changes and division that Labour experienced from 2008-2017. Their polling doesn't seem that bad given they're still in the 40s, which is much higher than Labour polled in Opposition or even higher than what Labour got in the last election. However their hopes of forming government seem to be fading given that Labour has surged ahead of them and they aren't in the high 40s where they'd probably need to be to form government on their own. Bridges hasn't performed very well-in his latest blunder after the Christchurch shooting National's petition on their website against joining the UN Migration Pact was deleted, which Bridges first attributed to routine website changes weeks before and when it was clear that wasn't true he blamed "an emotional junior staffer" despite the fact the person who deleted it was someone who had worked for the party for 6 years. Bridges hasn't quite escaped the Jami Lee Ross scandal with Ross still on the backbenches as an Independent and he is now being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office. It's not unheard of for leaders to come back from deep unpopularity, Helen Clark had 2% for preferred PM in 1996 and polled in the teens yet ran a strong campaign and came close behind National and then won the next election comfortably. However it seems unlikely that Bridges will be able to connect with the public and he'll probably not be leader by the next election at the way things are going.

[Lachi]

Reaction to the Reid Research poll: wew lad

[Pericles]

A 'binding' referendum on cannabis legalization will be held along with the 2020 election-I say 'binding' as while the government calls it a binding referendum the vote will be on a draft bill but that bill won't automatically come into effect with a Yes vote, parliament would need to then pass the bill. That is better than a lot of the other possibilities (eg a referendum on just decriminalization or a referendum without a bill clearly outlining the legal status of cannabis for a Yes vote), however it is not ideal as the bill could be amended and watered down after a Yes vote. All parties in government have promised to enact the draft bill if there is a Yes vote, but National refuses yet to make that promise. The proposals overall seem pretty good and I'd definitely vote Yes, though I am a bit unsure as to why the age is at 20 (given New Zealand's drinking age is 18 and the proposed laws for cannabis would be stricter than for alcohol, this could have the effect of boosting arguments that cannabis is something uniquely dangerous). It does look like this will result in a Yes vote, though I don't want to say such an outcome is certain until it happens.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112513203/cannabis-law-will-not-be-passed-ahead-of-referendum-would-set-age-at-20

The 2020 cannabis referendum will be a simple yes/no question on a piece of draft law that had not yet passed, Justice Minister Andrew Little says.

This means a future Government would have to actually enact a law change if voted for, meaning it is not binding, although Little is describing it as such.

If the public endorsed the legislation it would:

Legalise personal use and purchase at age 20
Only allow sale at a licensed premises
Only allow consumption at a licensed premises or private property
Would allow limited home-growing
Ban all advertising for cannabis products

The government seemed to rule out a referendum on changes to MMP which had been a possibility, ruling out 'government-initiated' referenda makes it uncertain as to whether there could still be a referendum on euthanasia reform as that is a member's bill so I think it could still go to a public vote, this may be necessary to pass the bill given NZ First seems to have made their support for that reform conditional on it going to a referendum, and the upcoming vote on the bill in a few weeks looks to be a close one with a genuinely uncertain outcome(https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112369026/euthanasia-bill-has-decent-but-not-certain-chance-of-surviving-second-reading).

[Pericles]

NZ today saw the introduction of the government's 'Wellbeing budget' which shifts government focus to increasing wellbeing and measures of wellbeing not just a sole focus on GDP. The biggest winner of the budget was mental health-an area in dire need of increased funding-with a boost of nearly $2 billion.

Budget 2019 - dubbed the Wellbeing Budget - has been announced, revealing billions of dollars in funding for mental health, families, KiwiRail and infrastructure for schools and hospitals.

What stands out?

The Government is investing $1.9 billion in improving mental health services - something it heavily foreshadowed ahead of the Wellbeing Budget's release.

That includes a $455 million package to offer frontline services for 325,000 people who need mental health support before they experience major problems.

It's also injecting a significant amount of money into trying to improve families' wellbeing through a $1.1 billion investment in child poverty reduction.

The Budget sets aside $256.6 million in operational funding to provide a payment of $150 per student to decile 1-7 state and state-integrated schools that "agree not to request donations from parents". 

That's on top of the Government's recent announcement that the $76.60 NCEA fees that families pay every year would be scrapped.

To help beneficiaries, $320.2 million over four years has been set aside to index benefits to average wage increases. Currently, benefits are indexed to the Consumer Price Index.

The Government already announced earlier this month it would allocate more than $200 million over four years to respond to recommendations to improve the welfare system.

KiwiRail is another big winner in Budget 2019 - a boost of over $1 billion in funding for the programme to support its redevelopment.

Much ot that will go on buying new wagons and upgrading existing tracks, with $35 million to investigate purchasing new Cook Strait ferries.

Schools will get $1.2 billion over 10 years to support school property investment. That compares to $1.7 billion for hospitals and facilities over two years - $850 million each year.

The Government's said one of its five Budget priorities is to lift Māori opportunities, and that includes an $80 million for Whanau Ora over four years.

New Zealand's spy agencies will get a $50 million boost, with $11 million in operating funding for the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS), and $39 million for the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB).

The Government has also increased the rolling four-year capital allowance announced in December 2018 and will now spend another $1.7 billion to total $14.8 billion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/05/budget-2019-billions-of-dollars-for-mental-health-children-beneficiaries-and-trains.amp.html

There was some drama over the last few days as the National Party leaked a Treasury budget documents ahead of Budget Day. This led to accusations that National hacked Treasury while Simon Bridges accused the government of smearing National and demanded the Finance Minister's resignation. It seems the leak was ultimately not due to hacking but human error as the documents could be accessed on the Treasury website. This probably will lead to someone's resignation bit National doesn't look great either with their leaks and juvenile attempts to score political points. The situation regarding the leak still isn't fully clear at this point.

[ethanhenare1]

Two very different poll results from One News and Newshub today.

One News Poll
Labour - 42% (down 6%)
National - 44% (up 4%)
Green - 6% (no change)
NZ First 5% (up 1%)

Newshub Poll
Labour - 50.8% (up 3.3%)
National - 37.4% (down 4.2%)
Green - 6.2% (up 1.1%)
NZ First - 2.8% (down 0.1%)

[ethanhenare1]

Preferred PM also contrasting.

One News
Ardern: 45% (down 6%)
Bridges: 5% (no change)
Collins: 6% (up 1%)
Peters: 5 (no change)

Newshub
Ardern:  49%  (up 7.2%)
Bridges: 4.2% (down 1.1%)
Collins: 7.1% (up 0.9%)

Newshub also polled performance for the two major party leaders
Ardern: 72.5% well, 15.6% poorly
Bridges: 17.4% well, 56% poorly

The preferred pm polls are a mixed message in terms of how well Ardern is doing but are bad news either way for Bridges and definitely good news either way for Collins.

[ethanhenare1]

Another interesting data point from Newshub relates to National's leaking of the budget.

When asked "Was National right to seek out and release Budget details before Budget Day?"
32.6% of all voters said yes
55.4% said no
12% weren't sure

And when specifically National voters were asked the same question
57.2% said yes
32.3% said no
10.5% weren't sure

Considering the fact the Budget was found quite easily via a fault in the Treasury's site rather than a hack as first speculated, I'm surprised how unpopular its leaking was with even a third of National's voters being against it. This may explain in part why Newhub's data didn't show a drop in Labour's numbers but doesn't really explain why One New's poll does.

[Pericles]

It's weird that the two polls have such diverging narratives, I'm more inclined to believe the Newshub one myself, particularly because they were the most accurate in 2017 (Colmar Brunton had similar numbers in their final poll but they went from showing multiple Labour leads to showing a 9-point National lead). The average of the two polls is Labour 46.4%, National 40.7%, Greens 6.1%, NZ First 3.9%, so Simon Bridges may have gotten lucky with the Colmar Brunton poll as otherwise he'd be in the dreaded 30s, but Judith Collins getting ahead of him is a bad sign for him.

With the budget leak, it seemed like a bunch of pointless theatrics given the budget was going to be published a few days afterwards anyway and just an attempt by National to try and make Labour look bad. It's a bit similar to the expenses saga in which people put way too much importance on a leak of something that was going to be released anyway. 

[ethanhenare1]

It's weird that the two polls have such diverging narratives, I'm more inclined to believe the Newshub one myself, particularly because they were the most accurate in 2017 (Colmar Brunton had similar numbers in their final poll but they went from showing multiple Labour leads to showing a 9-point National lead). The average of the two polls is Labour 46.4%, National 40.7%, Greens 6.1%, NZ First 3.9%, so Simon Bridges may have gotten lucky with the Colmar Brunton poll as otherwise he'd be in the dreaded 30s, but Judith Collins getting ahead of him is a bad sign for him.

With the budget leak, it seemed like a bunch of pointless theatrics given the budget was going to be published a few days afterwards anyway and just an attempt by National to try and make Labour look bad. It's a bit similar to the expenses saga in which people put way too much importance on a leak of something that was going to be released anyway. 

Yeah, I'd probably agree that the Newshub poll holds a bit more weight. As for why the difference occurred, the only thing I can think of is that the Newshub poll was taken 30 May – 7 Jun whereas the One news one was 4–8 Jun, but I can't really see any reason why Labour's numbers would have been lower in those last few days than in the rest so idk. From the looks of it though, the Budget scandal either didn't have a negative impact on Labour at all (possibly even impacting National more) or if it did then the effect wasn't massive.

[Pericles]

It's weird that the two polls have such diverging narratives, I'm more inclined to believe the Newshub one myself, particularly because they were the most accurate in 2017 (Colmar Brunton had similar numbers in their final poll but they went from showing multiple Labour leads to showing a 9-point National lead). The average of the two polls is Labour 46.4%, National 40.7%, Greens 6.1%, NZ First 3.9%, so Simon Bridges may have gotten lucky with the Colmar Brunton poll as otherwise he'd be in the dreaded 30s, but Judith Collins getting ahead of him is a bad sign for him.

With the budget leak, it seemed like a bunch of pointless theatrics given the budget was going to be published a few days afterwards anyway and just an attempt by National to try and make Labour look bad. It's a bit similar to the expenses saga in which people put way too much importance on a leak of something that was going to be released anyway. 

Yeah, I'd probably agree that the Newshub poll holds a bit more weight. As for why the difference occurred, the only thing I can think of is that the Newshub poll was taken 30 May – 7 Jun whereas the One news one was 4–8 Jun, but I can't really see any reason why Labour's numbers would have been lower in those last few days than in the rest so idk. From the looks of it though, the Budget scandal either didn't have a negative impact on Labour at all (possibly even impacting National more) or if it did then the effect wasn't massive.

Well for a few of those days the narrative was going around in the media that the Treasury was hacked and National was involved, and now that has been disproven the government, or at least the Treasury, look worse while National don't look like they've been doing dirty tricks (or at least less, National probably has been doing some other dirty tricks). That still doesn't pass as a plausible explanation for such a huge difference, and the confusing thing too is that the trends are way different in the polls with Newshub showing National losing 4.2% and Labour gaining 3.3% while Colmar Brunton showing National gaining 4% and Labour losing 6%. So usually when polls differ you can tell how things are going by the direction of the trend, but not this time. One of them is probably an outlier, but given how rare polling is in NZ it will be a long time, if ever, until we know which one was the outlier.

[ethanhenare1]

More poll data from both One News and Newshub, both on the topic of 2020's cannabis legalisation referendum

One News Poll on Legalisation
For: 39%
Against: 52%
Don't Know: 8%
Would not vote: 1%

Newshub Poll on Legalisation
For: 41.7%
Against: 48%
Don't Know: 10.4%

Green voters are much more likely to vote yes, National voters are much more likely to vote no, and Both Labour and NZFirst and closer to the centre with Labour voters leaning towards yes and NZFirst voters leaning towards no.

Definitely a swing towards unfavourability of legalisation from the last poll in may which had 52% being for and 29% being against.

[Lachi]

I think the best thing to do here is to take the average of the 2 polls, which would turn into

Labour: 46.4    (60)
National: 40.7  (52)
Greens: 6.1     (
NZF: 3.9         (0)
ACT : 0.9        (1, electorate seat)

[Pericles]

The End of Life Choice bill, a member's bill (by ACT Party leader David Seymour, who is of course not in government) to legalize euthanasia passed its second reading 70-50.

33 Labour MPs voted for the bill, including leader Jacinda Ardern, while 13 did not. 18 National MPs voted for the bill, while 37 - including leader Simon Bridges - did not.

The bill in its current form would allow someone with a terminal illness that is likely to kill them within six months, or a "grievous and irremediable medical condition", the option of requesting assisted dying.

The bill will likely be further amended to limit euthanasia only to the terminally ill and to allow a public referendum in 2020 on the bill (in order to maintain NZ First's support). From the first reading to the second reading 9 MPs switched their votes from yes to no while 3 MPs (including potential National Party leadership contender Judith Collins) switched their votes from no to yes. The committee of the whole house stage may now take several months before the bill's third reading-the final parliamentary vote on it-but the odds look good but not safe for it to pass.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/113795416/euthanasia-bill-passes-second-reading

At the bottom of the article there is a full list of which MPs voted yes and no on the bill and their party.

[Pericles]

This week, the government announced that it has a $7.5 billion budget surplus (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/116405734/massive-75-billion-surplus-shows-room-for-tax-cuts-and-spending).

This seems to be a sign that Labour is managing the economy well (the myth that "Labour can't manage the economy" never had much evidence behind it though). Growth may be slowing a bit, but New Zealand's economy still growing pretty well and is doing nicely compared to other countries, and unemployment has also been falling to the lowest levels in over a decade. The National Party likes to point to business confidence being low to say the economy is doing badly, but these surveys are more of an indication as to whether National or Labour is in government than on how the actual economy is doing, business confidence surged in the GFC because National became the government instead of Labour at the same time.

There is some debate as to what should be done with the surplus. National Party leader Simon Bridges has said that this shows the government is "over-taxing" (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/if-youve-got-7-5-billion-surplus-you-over-taxing-bridges-calls-government-after-opening-books). Related to this is that when Labour got into government it repealed the tax cuts National instituted (the tax cuts were never implemented, so National saying that voters would get a tax hike in the last election was arguably deceptive), which benefited upper income earners, and used that to fund its Families Package. There have been suggestions that economic stimulus is needed due to international economic uncertainty. Finance Minister Grant Robertson does sound open to this. There are also a lot of social problems that need addressing like healthcare, education (there have been several teachers and nurses strikes recently which emphasize this), housing and welfare benefits also could be increased. I personally think these are higher priorities than tax cuts and these issues do really need to be addressed.

[Pericles]

Most of the results for New Zealand's local body elections have been announced, there are still some special votes to count.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-body-elections/116401573/local-body-elections-2019-whos-in-and-whos-out-in-your-local-government
In Wellington, the capital city, which is usually reliably Labour, the Labour candidate and incumbent Mayor Justin Lester is currently behind Andy Foster by 715 votes, with 5,563 votes still to be counted (those types of votes tend to lean left, so the race hasn't been called). Foster has run and lost for mayor twice before, he has described himself as a 'blue green' (so a person with center-right views who is also an environmentalist), and this time was well-financed with the backing of Peter Jackson.
In Auckland, incumbent Phil Goff won in a landslide over challenger John Tamihere (whose campaign was described as populist). Goff has been in politics a long time, having been in parliament in the 1980s and leader of the Labour Party from 2008 to 2011.
New Zealand has its first ever Green Party mayor, Aaron Hawkins in Dunedin, which is interesting. In Invercargill, incumbent Tim Shadbolt, who has been mayor there since 1993, won another term, and incumbent Lianne Dalziel (who's affiliated with the Labour Party) was also re-elected. Turnout was relatively low, seems to be around 40%, and it's unclear whether it increased or decreased from in 2016. There does seem to be a bit more diversity and youth in local government. Another notable result is that the youngest mayor ever in New Zealand, Campbell Barry, was elected, defeating a long-time incumbent in Lower Hutt. He is also a member of the Labour Party.
Overall, with the exception of Wellington, this seems to be a good result for the left. However, local elections aren't super partisan like say midterm elections in the US, and most candidates aren't affiliated with a political party, though the Labour Party is the biggest on having candidates be affiliated with the party (the National Party, as far as I know, did not officially run any candidates in the local elections)

[Pericles]

Update: The Wellington results have been updated, and now there are only 1,700 special votes left to count. Andy Foster leads by a 503-vote margin with 26,707 votes to 26,204 for Justin Lester. Turnout was also down in this race, falling from 45% in 2016 to around 40% this time. The race has been called for Foster.

[ethanhenare1]

Despite having very positive polls for Labour recently, today's Newshub Reid Research poll is quite the opposite.

National: 43.9% (Up 6.5)
Labour: 41.6% (Down 9.2)
Greens: 6.3% (Up 0.1)
NZ First: 4.0% (Up 1.2)
Act: 1.4% (Up 0.6)
Top: 1.1% (Up 1)
Maori: 0.7% (Up 0.2)

On the bright side for Labour, this would still not be enough for National to govern. Labour would receive 54 seats, and the Greens would receive 8, giving them a majority of 62. NZFirst is still below the threshold (but getting closer). National would get 56 seats with Act receiving for the first time I've seen in polling for a while, a high enough percentage to earn a second seat (Assuming he wins the Epsom electorate again). 

Ardern's personal polling also took a drop, with it falling 10.6 points from their last poll down to 38.4%. She's still by far the highest polling candidate with National leader Simon Bridges at 6.7% (rising 2.5) and National MP Judith Collins at 5.2% (dropping 1.9).

These dops have been blamed largely on the recent Labour staffer sexual assault controversy, the general failures of Kiwibuild (National has really been hitting them hard on this). And criticisms over the government handling of Ihumatao, which may have worsened Arden's and Labour's standing with some Maori voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

weren't the government planning on reducing the threshold to 4% and abolishing that stupid "coat-tailing" rule anyway?

[ethanhenare1]

weren't the government planning on reducing the threshold to 4% and abolishing that stupid "coat-tailing" rule anyway?

Back in March Green MP Golriz Ghahraman introduced the Strengthening Democracy Members Bill which among other things included those two reforms. If this bill were implemented it would come into effect by the 2023 election but it so far hasn't been passed or even introduced to the house and to be honest I don't think I've really heard anything about it since it was announced. It's likely that the Greens are still trying to get support for the bill from Labour and NZFirst behind the scenes (I know Winston Peters is strongly against the bill). Either way, it won't be coming into effect in the upcoming election. Which is in my opinion unfortunate as they're in my view, good reforms.

[Pericles]

Yeah Winston's position seems ironic, I heard him in a speech say "if you can't get 5% you're no darn good", especially given he's fallen below 5% twice and could well do so again in 2020.