Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019
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Author Topic: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019  (Read 7216 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #75 on: March 03, 2019, 04:46:38 PM »

With 435 precincts in, one seat has shifted from Reform to EKRE: Reform at 34, EKRE at 20 now.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #76 on: March 03, 2019, 04:49:08 PM »

Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (Center) says that his party will "do its utmost" to be part of the next coalition.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #77 on: March 03, 2019, 04:52:07 PM »

Remaining precincts:

6 in Tallinn
4 in the Reform stronghold outside Tallinn
2 in the part of the Southeast where EKRE are leading Reform by 4 votes
2 in Tartu City
1 in Tartu County
1 in the part of the Northeast where Center don't do well
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bigic
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« Reply #78 on: March 03, 2019, 04:53:39 PM »

Ratas has 2 options - a grand coalition with Reform (likely) or a coalition including EKRE (very unlikely, and probably excluded by Centre)
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DavidB.
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« Reply #79 on: March 03, 2019, 04:54:46 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2019, 05:08:15 PM by DavidB. »

Ratas has 2 options - a grand coalition with Reform (likely) or a coalition including EKRE (very unlikely, and probably excluded by Centre)
If Reform exclude EKRE, Center definitely would. EKRE's positions on Russian minority issues are Reform's positions but on steroids. I really think that if one of the two biggest parties would start considering governing with EKRE it would be Reform.

Ratas does have two options: a grand coalition with Reform or the opposition.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #80 on: March 03, 2019, 04:58:51 PM »

Three of Tallinn's precincts have come in and EKRE's 20th seat has now become Center's 26th, leaving them only one seat down from 2015 at 22.7%. Wonder whether Reform, EKRE or Center will ultimately get it. I think it will be Reform or EKRE given the outstanding precincts.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #81 on: March 03, 2019, 05:07:23 PM »

EKRE leader Mart Helme now talking about Center-EKRE-Isamaa, who would have a comfortable majority. Hard to see how that would not be suicide for both Center and EKRE. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact wasn't a success, guys... and you should know!
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DavidB.
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« Reply #82 on: March 03, 2019, 05:36:24 PM »

Everything is in.

Reform 28.8% (+1.1%) - 34 seats (+4)
Center 23% (-1.7%) - 26 seats (-1)
EKRE 17.8% (+9.7%) - 19 seats (+12)
Pro Patria 11.4% (-2.3%) - 12 seats (-2)
SDE 9.8% (-5.4%) - 10 seats (-5)

EE200 4.5% (new) - 0 seats
Greens 1.8% (+0.9%) - 0 seats
Richness of Life 1.2% (new)
Free Party 1.2% (-7.5%) 0 seats (-8 seats)
-

No center-left majority anymore, Reform (who seem to have a very effective vote distribution, gaining 4 seats with only +1.1%) hold the balance of power. Strong result for Reform, Isamaa and especially EKRE: good.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #83 on: March 04, 2019, 02:32:39 AM »

In which universe Estonia had left wing majority.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #84 on: March 04, 2019, 07:45:40 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2019, 08:38:03 AM by DavidB. »

Ruuben Kaalep, the leader of EKRE's alt-right youth organization Blue Awakening which was expelled from the ECR youth organization, was elected in Tartu City with 566 votes. Another EKRE candidate, Indrek Särg, received 2,221 votes in the same district but was not elected due to his lower position on the EKRE list and is angry about this. Kaalep says he agrees but "seeks to change the electoral system from within parliament" and does not give up his seat.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #85 on: March 05, 2019, 11:43:33 AM »

https://news.postimees.ee/6537206/kaja-kallas-our-first-choice-is-a-government-with-isamaa-and-sde

Kaja Kallas: "our first choice is a government with Isamaa and SDE"
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #86 on: March 05, 2019, 11:48:42 AM »


the reasonable and most likely option given SDE's support of center right governments in the past.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #87 on: March 05, 2019, 12:04:06 PM »

and as I always do, if it was a fully national proportional system instead of constituency proportional.

+ and - Compared to actual result


Reform: 29 (-5)
Centre: 23 (-3)
Conservative People's: 18 (-1)
Pro Patria: 12 (+/- 0)
Social Democrats: 10 (+/- 0)
Estonia 200: 5 (+5)
Greens: 2 (+2)
Richness of Life: 1 (+1)
Estonian Free Party: 1 (+1)

Incoming Government (K-I-SDE): 45, 6 short of majority

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bigic
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« Reply #88 on: March 06, 2019, 08:45:22 AM »

Reform Party chose to begin talks with the Centre Party.
https://news.err.ee/917068/reform-to-begin-coalition-talks-with-centre-party
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Diouf
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« Reply #89 on: March 09, 2019, 05:44:25 AM »

Centre rejects Reform's offer to begin coalition talks

"The board of the Centre Party, which was the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election and received an invitation on Wednesday from the election-winning Reform Party, opted to turn down the offer.

Addressing the press following the board's meeting on Friday, Centre chairman and outgoing Prime Minister Jüri Ratas said that it was differences of opinion when it came to tax matters that ended up being the red line. Mr Ratas said that under such conditions, the Centre Party could not launch coalition talks with Reform.Kadri Simson added that the conditions set by the Reform Party were too ultimatum-like. "We received input that it would only be possible to enter talks [with them] only if the resulting government were to begin implementing the Reform Party's programme," she added. According to Jaanus Karilaid, Reform's planned tax reform would not allow for Centre's planned extraordinary pension hike."

Kallas: Reform to approach Isamaa, Social Democrats next

"Following the rejection of the Centre Party, the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election, of the election-winning Reform Party's invitation to launch coalition talks, the board of the Reform Party decided on Friday to approach the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa next.

"The board of our party decided to propose launching coalition talks with the Social Democrats and Isamaa," Ms Kallas said, addressing the press following the Reform Party board meeting on Friday afternoon. "Just as I told [Centre chairman] Jüri Ratas, this cooperation would be on equal terms between equal partners, and it is our good will to form a functioning government for Estonia that could solve the challenges facing Estonia and offer people a better future."

https://news.err.ee/918142/centre-rejects-reform-s-offer-to-begin-coalition-talks
https://news.err.ee/918169/kallas-reform-to-approach-isamaa-social-democrats-next
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bigic
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« Reply #90 on: March 11, 2019, 06:12:51 AM »

Not exactly expected

https://news.err.ee/918712/centre-board-announces-decision-to-begin-coalition-talks-with-isamaa-ekre
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DavidB.
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« Reply #91 on: March 11, 2019, 11:39:50 AM »

EKRE and Isamaa have approved. Coalition talks will start.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2019, 04:10:04 AM »

I wonder how EKRE voters will react on cooperating with main political arm of Russian minority in Estonia? Question of russian language in education probably will be some major obstacle in coalition talks.
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bigic
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« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2019, 04:59:16 AM »


Raimond Kaljulaid resigns from the Centre Party's board - he is one of four members who voted against talks with EKRE.
https://news.err.ee/918972/raimond-kaljulaid-quits-centre-board-over-party-talks-with-ekre
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Diouf
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« Reply #94 on: March 15, 2019, 09:35:38 AM »

Kantar Emor poll for Postimees suggests that Centre and Isamaa voters are not that happy with the proposed coalition with EKRE, particularly the Russian Centre voters.

Among all voters, Reform-Isamaa-SDE is on 30%, Reform-Centre on 29% and Centre-EKRE-Isamaa on 24%. EKRE voters of course massively support the latter, but the newspaper write that Centre and  Isamaa voters prefer the other option with them in without stipulating the exact shares.

Citizens of other nationalities clearly prefer a coalition between Center and Reform (44 percent), wile only 8 percent of non-Estonian-speakers support a Center-EKRE-Isamaa union. Centre falls from 23 to 19 %, and is down from 67% to 48.9% support among Russian-speakers. These voters mainly seem to go to SDE and Estonia 200. The latter is at 7.3% in this poll, i.e. above the threshold.

ERR report that Centre, EKRE and Isamaa have reached agreement on culture, sport and youth work in a potential coalition. I guess those are probably not the most controversial areas, but it shows progress and puts pressure on Reform.

https://news.postimees.ee/6545414/poll-voters-prefer-other-coalitions
https://news.err.ee/920493/centre-isamaa-ekre-reach-agreement-on-sports-culture-youth-work
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Diouf
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« Reply #95 on: March 19, 2019, 03:46:14 AM »

Toom: Centre vote on EKRE, Isamaa talks first that ran along ethnic lines

The Centre MEP Yana Toom says that the vote to start negotiations with EKRE and Isamaa in the party board was the first to run along ethic lines with the "Russian wing" being voted down.

"[EKRE] isn't a party I would want to be with in a coalition," Ms Toom said. "That's just how it is. I don't think that the voters would forgive me if I did." She added that if this comes up again in a board meeting, she will likely vote against such a coalition.

"Perhaps we've got a miracle in store and Helme and Seeder suddenly say that there won't be a changeover to 100% Estonian-speaking education, and that everyone with a grey passport will be made a citizen," she joked. "Then I'd tell myself, okay Toom, perhaps this is a deal with the devil, but at least we get a few things done we've been fighting for."

https://news.err.ee/920779/toom-centre-vote-on-ekre-isamaa-talks-first-that-ran-along-ethnic-lines
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Diouf
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« Reply #96 on: March 27, 2019, 12:17:56 PM »

Kaja Kallas says she's willing to give up PM spot to form coalition with the Centre Party. However, former Prime Minister and current EU Commissioner Andrus Ansip said that such a move would be illogical, and that the Reform party should instead be willing to compromise on their proposal to make €500 a month tax free for everyone. This was one of Kallas' ultimate demands, and one reason why the Centre Party left negotiations, but Ansip says that it's too expensive and an obvious place to give way.

https://news.err.ee/923938/kallas-would-consider-leaving-position-of-prime-minister-to-ratas
https://news.err.ee/923991/ansip-wouldn-t-offer-ratas-prime-minister-but-compromise-on-tax-instead
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bigic
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« Reply #97 on: April 04, 2019, 01:01:20 PM »

https://news.err.ee/926616/polluaas-seeder-kallas-elected-riigikogu-president-vice-presidents
55 votes for the proposed coalition's candidates for president and first vice-president of the parlament. The three parties (Centre, EKRE, Isamaa) have 57 MPs between them - one of them abstained and one of them voted with the opposition.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #98 on: April 06, 2019, 07:06:04 AM »

The coalition agreement should be presented today and someone in EKRE will chair parliament. What an unlikely (yet great) outcome of the election this is.
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #99 on: April 08, 2019, 01:08:15 PM »

https://news.err.ee/927689/gallery-centre-ekre-isamaa-coalition-deal-signed-into-being
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