Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs? (user search)
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  Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs?  (Read 7000 times)
lfromnj
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« on: November 25, 2019, 12:57:43 PM »
« edited: November 25, 2019, 01:04:06 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

Yes and no
2016 trends are clearly white voters flipping. The strongest swings are in the rich white areas. Now minorities provided a base but white voters going from 75-25 R to 60 40 R was the major fact that flipped areas like Tx 7th.
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lfromnj
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Posts: 19,368


« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 07:01:43 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

Considering how well Cox/Ducey/Abbott etc performed in the same "trending away" suburbs, it seems clear imo that the big change is political and not generational.

Or Mitt Romney in 2012, for that matter. The kinds of swings we saw in Orange County, CA or Mason County, WV can’t be explained generational turnover alone, unless you’re being deliberately obtuse.

DARIEN CT
+26 Bush 04 Standard TAX CUTS
+9 Mccain 08, PANIC WE NEED SOCIALIZED LOSSES FOR OUR BANKS
2012 + 32 Romney BARACK HUSSEIN OBUMMER PASSED DODD FRANK, cut my dividend by 0.5%. +
2016 +11 Clinton, ORANGE MAN BAD.
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