Hypothetical: Northam's Scandalous Photo is Released One Week Before the Primary

[libertpaulian]

What's the result?

Enough time for Perriello to win?

[Adam Griffin]

Northam netted a quarter of his total statewide margin of victory out of the core NoVa area (Fairfax, Loudon & PWC + cities) during just early voting alone; 45% of the total statewide EV in 2017. He also netted another 10k or so out of the Hampton Roads area during the same time period.

Excluding any other baked in EV, Perriello would need to win 53% of everything else to have a chance. In reality and given how the race shaped up (including during EV), he'd probably have needed closer to 60% of the late EV and ED vote. Doubtful he could pull it off.

[Badger]

I disagree with Adam. This would be poisoned in a Democratic primary. We would have Governor Perillo

[libertpaulian]

Oh, and another twist to my OP: He gives the same (or very similar) "Moonwalk" press conference shortly after the release.

[lfromnj]

Inb4 hofoid says neoliberal subarban  romney clintons wouldn't vote for #populist Y on Obamacare Periello against double bush Northam.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fantasizing about what would've happened if the Gillespie campaign had its act together isn't going to give the Republicans control of the Governor's office.

[RINO Tom]

Inb4 hofoid says neoliberal subarban  romney clintons wouldn't vote for #populist Y on Obamacare Periello against double bush Northam.

Nitpicking, but NOVA isn't exactly Romney-Clinton country, haha ... they're just Democrats.

[Del Tachi]

Northam netted a quarter of his total statewide margin of victory out of the core NoVa area (Fairfax, Loudon & PWC + cities) during just early voting alone; 45% of the total statewide EV in 2017. He also netted another 10k or so out of the Hampton Roads area during the same time period.

Excluding any other baked in EV, Perriello would need to win 53% of everything else to have a chance. In reality and given how the race shaped up (including during EV), he'd probably have needed closer to 60% of the late EV and ED vote. Doubtful he could pull it off.

Agree.  Big reason why EV should be restricted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Perriello would win.

[Figueira]

Northam netted a quarter of his total statewide margin of victory out of the core NoVa area (Fairfax, Loudon & PWC + cities) during just early voting alone; 45% of the total statewide EV in 2017. He also netted another 10k or so out of the Hampton Roads area during the same time period.

Excluding any other baked in EV, Perriello would need to win 53% of everything else to have a chance. In reality and given how the race shaped up (including during EV), he'd probably have needed closer to 60% of the late EV and ED vote. Doubtful he could pull it off.

Agree.  Big reason why EV should be restricted.

I'd say it's a reason why, on a personal level, it's a wiser decision to wait until election day if you can, but I don't see why it means early voting in general is bad. The odds of such a scandal appearing at the last minute is pretty slim.