What if: Napoleon wins but France sees a reversal of fortune?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

By what POD could we see a world where we have a napoleonic french empire dominating Europe for a minimum of 50 years(it can collapse in 1848 at earliest) but by 2007 have declined/fallen to the point where some other continental European power has displaced France as the leading power? What I'm talking about is a dual-wave reversal of fortune(first OTL's outcome of a napoleonic loss is reversed then the victorious outcome is reversed by other factors decades later) The only restrictions are no ASBs along with no mass nuclear wars. Have at it! Bonus points if the power isn't Germany, Russia, Russia or Austria-Hungary.

[Verily]

For this timeline, we go back a few years. In 1762, Empress Elizabeth of Russia lives three months longer, long enough to conclude a treaty ending the continental theater of the Seven Years War and dissolving the Kingdom of Prussia.

Fast forward a few decades. Napoleon's armies have crushed the disorganized German forces in less than a year. In a last-ditch attempt to salvage some of Germany, Austria-Hungary and Bavaria attack Napoleon's forces in the rear. Enraged at the treachery, Napoleon moves against them. Munich falls after just five weeks, and Vienna falls three months thereafter. He sets up an independent Hungarian state while reorganizing the German-speaking territories into a variety of  suzerain states.

After the sudden and complete destruction of the great power of Austria-Hungary, Emperor Alexander I Russia concludes an alliance with Napoleon by which the two states pledge to complete a long-term goal of Russian foreign policy: the destruction of the Ottoman Empire and the revival of the Byzantine Empire. In this goal, both nations are opposed by the British, but the British are unable to assist the Ottomans sufficiently; in 1809, the city of Constantinople falls to besieging French and Russian forces.

Against the wishes of Napoleon, Prince Nicholas of Russia, younger brother of Alexander I (and real-history Nicholas I of Russia) is proclaimed Emperor of the Romans at Constantinople on May 17, 1809. Napoleon is unhappy with the choice, but does not want immediate war with Russia, preferring to consolidate his gains in Europe and deal with a revolt in the German states.

Elsewhere, the Peninsular War ends with the complete occupation of Portugal in late 1810, though pro-Portuguese and Spanish guerillas survive in some areas. After putting down the revolt in the German territories by 1811, Napoleon annexes the Rhine Confederation to France and reestablishes the Kingdom of Poland to watch over eastern Germany, against the express wishes of the Russians. All the while, sea battles are ongoing between the French and British, but little changes.

The reestablishment of Poland and the choice of Byzantine Emperor lead to war between the French and the Russians in 1813. French, Polish and Hungarian forces meet the Russians and Byzantines at Sofia in early 1814, where the Russo-Byzantine alliance is defeated and retreats to Constantinople. In secret, Napoleon sends emissaries to the remnants of the Ottomans, with whom he is still officially at war, offering an alliance against the Russians. The Ottomans agree, and, with renewed vigor, launch an assault across the Caucasus at Russia in the summer of 1814. The Russians are forced to withdraw some of their soldiers from the front with the French, but do not anticipate the Franco-Ottoman alliance.

In January of 1815, Napoleon sweeps down on Constantinople. Initially, the city defies him, but three days later a vast Ottoman force, including many of those who participated in the feint in the Caucasus appears from the east. The people of Constantinople, fearing reoccupation by the Turks, rise up against Emperor Nicholas, who rallies his guards and surrenders the city to Napoleon before the crowds can drag him down and kill him. Napoleon kills Nicholas anyway and occupies the city. The Ottoman force is somewhat surprised by these developments and asks Napoleon for the city to be turned over to them; Napoleon refuses and destroys most of the remnants of the Ottoman army in a pitched battle at Chrysopolis.

Napoleon then appoints a prominent local member of the Phanariotes, the Greek elite of the city, as Emperor, and he is crowned Alexius VI of the Romans. However, Alexius VI is also forced to swear homage and fealty to Napoleon, and loyalty to the French crown.

Thereafter, the Russians conclude peace with the French and their allies, surrendering vast quantities of territory to the Kingdom of Poland as well as the Crimea to the restored Byzantine Empire. The Russian Emperor, defeated and now without an heir, retreats inward. Upon his death in 1825, Russia undergoes a violent and bloody twelve-year war of succession that retards its ability to catch up to the rest of Europe; Napoleon does not intervene because he sees the hinterlands of Russia as irrelevant.

The British, unable to break the power of Napoleon on land, finally conclude a peace with him in 1820. France surrenders some overseas territory that is seen of little consequence, and Britain acknowledges Napoleon as Emperor of France.

In the years thereafter, the Bonapartes rule over an immense empire that is increasingly unstable. Client states in Poland, Hungary, Denmark, southern Italy and Catalonia prove only mildly effective at keeping down peoples less obliged to France than they.

In 1849, a massive revolt in Iberia nearly drives out the French, and Emperor Napoleon II is forced to annex Catalonia completely to France and institute permanent martial law in the peninsula. Sensing an opportunity, the British land a force at Porto, now controlled by the rebels, and declare war on France. Additionally, they send envoys to some of the French client states that are particularly discontent with French rule, particularly Poland and Byzantium, both of which resented French efforts to prevent them from interfering in the War of Russian Succession. The three states agree to a war against France.

By 1850, things have gone from bad to worse in Iberia. Less capable a leader than his father, Napoleon II is unable to quell the rebellion, which has instead spread throughout Portugal and Castile and has even gained a foothold in largely pro-French Aragon. The French are unable to cut off British supplies by sea to the rebels. However, the worst is yet to come; in June of 1850, the Poles and Byzantines declare war against France; the Byzantines invade French territory in the Balkans as well as the Kingdom of Sicily, which surrenders almost immediately; the Poles occupy the German states. Denmark, which has managed friendly relations with Poland in recent years, declares neutrality, and Hungary, seeing its neighbors in revolt, allies with them against France. [Note that, by this time, none of the rulers are the same rulers who were initially allied with Napoleon I.]

Fighting in Iberia, Italy and Germany proves too much for the French Empire, which crumbles as quickly as it was formed. By 1851, the Byzantines control all of Italy to Milan, which is under siege, and the Poles have reached the Rhine River. French loyalists on the peninsula are surrounded in Barcelona and a few smaller cities south of the Pyrenees. Unable to keep his empire together, Napoleon II signs the Treaty of Cologne, surrendering Italy to the Byzantines and much of eastern Germany to the Poles; he retains the old Rhine Confederation. War continues in Iberia until 1853, when the Treaty of Rome acknowledges French control of Catalonia while the rest of Spain and Portugal becomes the united Kingdom of Iberia (which shortly thereafter falls apart into Portugal and Spain).

The Poles, Hungarians and Byzantines divide up the other French territories surrendered, but conflicts over who gets what lead to another war in which the Byzantines and Poles attack the Hungarians. The Hungarians are defeated in a short war, and Hungary is reduced to a rump state while Poland gains control of Bohemia and the Byzantines gain control of most of the Balkans. A small, independent Austria is established as a buffer states between Byzantium and Poland.

In this timeline, by 1855, the major powers in Europe are the French, the British, and the Byzantines. The Poles control large swathes of territory but are weak, and will not be able to long survive a series of German revolts. Russia is still rebuilding from its calamitous civil war and will not be a major player for some time yet. As we have seen, Prussia was stillborn in 1762 and Austria-Hungary has been utterly obliterated.

I don't have more creative juices to do this past 1855, sorry.

[J. J.]

In this scenario, I would expect Sweden to be the major power.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Too much handwaving between the dissolution of the Kingdom in Prussia and the Napoleonic Era for my taste.  Assuming Ducal Prussia gets pulled back into the Polish orbit after the Seven Years War, we might not see a Partition of Poland.  Enabling Poland to be a string Napoleonic ally only to have a falling out with France once Napoleon II takes over after his father's death.  If I get inspired, I may fill out my own handwaving with details.

[Verily]

Too much handwaving between the dissolution of the Kingdom in Prussia and the Napoleonic Era for my taste.  Assuming Ducal Prussia gets pulled back into the Polish orbit after the Seven Years War, we might not see a Partition of Poland.  Enabling Poland to be a string Napoleonic ally only to have a falling out with France once Napoleon II takes over after his father's death.  If I get inspired, I may fill out my own handwaving with details.

Yes, I was just trying to get straight to the chase. Still, I think Poland was doomed by that point anyway; a lack of Prussia wouldn't have stopped Catherine. The idea is that Poland develops even more animosity with Russia than usual (as would be expected if the main drivers behind the partitions were the Russians), and French attempts at being "diplomatic" only manage to irritate the Poles.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But would either Austria or Russia trust the other enough to agree to a two way split of Poland?  A three-way split is doable because no one is getting a majority of the spoils.  With just Austria and Poland, both would have reasons to keep Poland alive as a buffer state

[Verily]

But would either Austria or Russia trust the other enough to agree to a two way split of Poland?  A three-way split is doable because no one is getting a majority of the spoils.  With just Austria and Poland, both would have reasons to keep Poland alive as a buffer state

Perhaps, but the Second Partition was only two ways, so you may be overestimating the reluctance. In any case, even if a bloated and weak Poland survives into the Napoleonic Era, it clearly becomes a part of Napoleon's empire, and later recreating the kingdom more efficiently on Russia's doorstep and to oversee the Germans seems like a classic Napoleonic move.

By the way, the ultimate "winner" in this scenario is the Byzantine Empire (called in this timeline the Greek Empire), though they will weaken somewhat after their peak in 1855. So, too, will the French and the British (the latter largely from colonial mishaps, which I haven't described much in the timeline above but which have plagued Britain since it attempted to seize most of former Spain's colonial territories after the end of the Peninsular War, resulting in heavy warfare between those who support the British, those who support the French-supported Spanish, and those who want independence all across Latin America).

[ag]

One major bummer.  Actually, a series of them, referring to the Russian dynastic succession.

At the time of Napoleonic wars Nicholas would not have been considered either a natural heir to Alexander, or a likely candidate for the throne in Constantinople. The second brother in the family (just a bit younger than Alexander) was Constantine, named so expressly as a manifestation of the Russian claim to Roman (Bysantine) throne.  Constantine was believed to be the heir to the throne up until Alexander's death in 1825. In truth, he had abdicated a few years previous, due to a marriage to a Catholic Polish woman (he was the Viceroy of Poland at the time). However, this abdiction was not public at the time of Alexander's death and this uncertainty at the moment of succession was exploited during the Decembrist revolt (much of the country did automatically take oath to Constantine.  In fact, Constantine's abdication had been such a closely guarded secret that even Nicholas himself first took the oath to his brother, despite himself being nominated as heir in Alexander's will (it's likely that even he didn't know he was to inherit the throne).

(a nice detail: some of the officers at the hart of the Decembrist uprising in 1825 are known to have told their subordinate soldiers that they were fighting for Constantine and Constitution - apparently, some soldiers believed that Constitution was Constantine's wife, the new Empress ) - against the usurper Nicholas. In any case, the rebellion occurred at the moment when most of the army was under the oath to Constantine, not to Nicholas!)

Now, in this alternative timeline Constantine is not the Polish Viceroy, so he is unlikely to be married to a Polish woman and has no reason to abdicate (in any case, it's all too early for this to happen). Furthermore, he had been groomed, at least in part, to be precisely the  Roman Emperor in Constantinople, and he is the natural candidate for that throne. This  leaves Nicholas the legitimate successor in Russia and, actually, even simplifies the Russian succession in 1825. Back n 1809 Constantine is an adult, around 30 years old. Nicholas is a 13-year old minor - not a  very appropriate candidate for the dangerous Bysantine throne.

Finally, even if Constantine did reject all crowns and Nicholas has to be sent to Constantinople, there is also the youngest brother, Michael (27 years old in 1825, and still with another 24 years of life left in him in the real timeline) who would be available to take over from Alexander in 1825. And even if smthg went wrong with Michael, there were still a whole bunch of their sisters, whose male children, though minors at the time, would, most likely, be eligible heirs as well.