The United States versus Richard M. Nixon

[J. J.]

This is great!  I can't wait to see where it will turn.

These parts are pure fiction.

T'ai Chi (though the master is real and contemporary, but not Jin).

The tax return (I have no idea).

Nixon's health is pretty much what happened; his doctor is the father of Dan Lungren, former Attorney General of CA.

The Ray Kroc charge was taken from the HJC.

[wbecker]

j.j.,

this is quite interesting. as a history/government teacher, i am able to say that this is more than able to happen in real life. fine job.

-wbecker

[J. J.]

j.j.,

this is quite interesting. as a history/government teacher, i am able to say that this is more than able to happen in real life. fine job.

-wbecker

I'm formerly a local government official, and I'm actually old enough to remember some of this.  I'm quite fortunate in that my father's cousin very strongly resembled Archie Bunker. 

The T'ai Chi will become very important in 1978, though I promise that Nixon will not be in a remake of Enter the Dragon.   I'll write more tomorrow.

[ATFFL]

SO we have many more years of this timeline?

Awesome!

[J. J.]

SO we have many more years of this timeline?

Awesome!

In our time line, Nixon did an interview with David Frost in 1978.  He might do the same one in this one.

Ah, you might not like the result.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 3-31-1975
Event Description:  At 9:00 PM EST, Easter Monday, Richard Nixon delivers what becomes as “The Resurrection Speech,” from Blair House.   If anything, it’s better than the Checker’s speech.

The tag political line is, “I’m not a quitter.  I am a fighter.”  It’s repeated several times.

One line is, “The President is not above the law, but no citizen is below it.  I will, in a few weeks, place myself in the hands of justice, just like any other citizen.  It is not appropriate here for me to offer a defense for my actions, but it will be offered and it will be strong.  I can understand why some people may feel that some of my actions were inappropriate, or even illegal, but they will be explained.  I’m a fighter, not a quitter and the forum in which I now fight is the Federal Court.

The last line is, “As you all know, this fight has taken a toll on me, both physically and emotionally.  I have suffered both from phlebitis and depression, but such the toll of this mighty struggle.  I‘m not a quitter, I’m a fighter, but you all have helped in my struggle with your well wishes and your prayers.  I thank you, and may God bless all of you, may God Bless America and all Americans.”

Event Date: 4-1-1975
Event Description:   The Press on the speech is excellent.  Man on the street commentaries praise Nixon.  A quote from a Baton Rouge attorney and registered Democrat, is included in an AP story on public reaction.  "That was the most magnificent political speech I've ever heard," says James Carville.

Event Date: 4-2-1975
Event Description:   Bush confirmed after stating, under oath, that he would not run for President or Vice President in 1976.  His bookThe Free Market is published.  It has blurbs from Ford, Frederick Hayek, and Milton Freidman.

Event Date: 4-3-1975
Event Description:   Gallop poll shows that Nixon’s positives are at 66%, 28% unfavorable.  Ford has slipped below 50%, due to the deteriorating situation in South Vietnam, and a slumping economy.

Event Date: 4-4-1975
Event Description:   Ford asks Congress for aid to South Vietnam; it is refused.

Event Date: 4-5-1975
Event Description:   Garment travels to Lewisburg, PA to inverveiw Liddy.  He knows what Liddy will say and pursuades him to testify.

Event Date: 4-8-1975
Event Description:  Liddy deposed by Garment.  He will testify that he never briefed Nixon on anything regarding the burglaries.

[J. J.]

I won't post on this until tomorrow, at least.  I have to research April-June, 1975.  I will that Saigon falls during this period.

[Max Power]

I won't post on this until tomorrow, at least.  I have to research April-June, 1975.  I will that Saigon falls during this period.

It sounds good! It's been great so far!!

[J. J.]

Event Date: 4-9-1975

Jaworksi asks Sam Dash, attorney to the HJC and Fred Thompson, an aide to Sen. Howard Baker (R-TN) to join his staff for the hearing.  They agree.

They agree that most of pre break-in charges rest on Dean's testimony.

Event Date: 4-10-1975
Event Description:  Harris poll reports Ford has 41% favorable, to 51% unfavorable job approval rating.


Event Date: 4-21-1975
Event Description:  Garment moves to subpoena, Gordon C. Strachan, an aide to Haldeman and  S. Harrison Dogole, President of Globe Security Systems, who's on Nixon's "Enemies List."

The Dogole request prompts questions from both the judge and Jaworski.   "This information is needed to support the testimony of one of our witnesses, G. Gordon Liddy." 

Event Date: 4-22-1975
Event Description:  Levi confirmed as Attorney General.

Dash meets with Dean.  Dean is shaken with the news that both Dogole and Strachan.  He starts answering questions with, “I refuse to answer the question on the grounds it might tend to incriminate me.”

Event Date: 4-23-1975
Event Description:  Ford gives a speech announcing that American involvement in South Vietnam is over.

Event Date: 4-24-1975
Event Description:  Jaworski meats with Dash and Thompson.  Dean has dried up and Liddy, "The Sphinx" in Jaworski's terms, will start talking.
 Liddy will appear as a witness for Nixon and Garment will be calling Gordon C. Strachan, an aide to Haldeman.

Dash:  What’s Strachan status?
Jaworski:  Indicted, but the case is not strong.  He might be filing to have them dropped, and he’ll get them.
Thompson:  Has he been deposed?
Jaworski:  He’s taking the Fifth.
Thompson:  Dean pleads the Fifth; Libby testifies and contradicts him; Strachan takes the Fifth.  I’d believe Libby in that case.
Jaworski:  It’s not only that, but they’ve subpoenaed Larry O’Brien, and some of their records.  And what are doing with Dogole?

Event Date: 4-30-1975
Event Description:   Saigon falls. 

Event Date: 5-1-1975
Event Description:   Several conservative newspapers run editorials to the effect that “Nixon would not have let this happen,”  which is a direct quote from The Manchester Union Leader the NH newspaper of William Loeb.

Event Date: 5-5-1975
Event Description:   Strachan files a petition to have the charges dismissed.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 5-7-1975
Event Description:   Gallup Poll results:

Do you approve of the job Gerald Ford is doing as President?

37% Favorable, 59% Unfavorable

What is your opinion of Richard Nixon?

61% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable.

Do you believe that Richard Nixon is guilty of some or all of the charges he is facing?

48% yes,  41% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he resign?

45% yes, 48% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he be impeached?

43% yes, 47% no.

Event Date: 5-12-1975
Event Description:   Thompson goes to Allenwood to attempt to interview Liddy.  Liddy laughs in face and says, “What are you going to do, put me in jail?”

Event Date: 5-15-1975
Event Description:   Jaworski interviews Strachan, or rather attempts to.  Strachan pleads the Fifth.  Jaworski offers to have the charges dropped.  Strachan who has filed a petition to gets them dropped, says no.

Thompson attempts to get Dean to open up; he threatens contempt of court.  Dean agrees, only if he gets immunity.  He adds, cryptically, “You might not want me to testify.”

 Mayagüez incident

Event Date: 5-16-1975
Event Description:  The press on the Mayagüez incident is oddly bad.  It is considered to be a botched attempt, due to the casualties.

Event Date: 5-17-1975
Event Description:   Jaworski, Dash, and Thompson meet, and go over their options.

Jaworski sums up the situation:

1.  Liddy, who has nothing left to lose, will testify as a defense witness.

2.  Dean will plead the Fifth.

3.  Strachan, will plead the Fifth.

If Liddy says anything about Dean or Strachan, it will, in effect be supported by their silence.

He concludes: “We only have Liddy.  Liddy!  Fred, he laughed in your face, we can’t turn him.

Thompson:  We only have two choices.  Get Dean or Strachan to tell us what’s happening.

A number of conservative papers follow the "We need Nixon back, NOW!" line.  Even the moderate Pittsburgh Press joins the line, stating "There has been enough time to try this case."

Event Date: 5-19-1975
Event Description:   Jaworski asks for a two week delay.  Though Garment opposes this, it is granted.  The trial will begin on June 16.

He offers both Dean and Strachan limited use immunity.  Dean accepts. Strachan says no, he wants full immunity.

Event Date: 5-20-1975
Event Description:   Dean gives the full story.  His wife’s former roommate was running a prostitution ring out their shared apartment.  The Democrats, using legal means and Globe Security, got the information.  The burglary, in part, was to get that information back.  Strachan knew about the break-in and Liddy knows the whole story.  Strachan might have told Haldeman, but he would be the only link.

Former Georgia Governor James E. “Jimmy” Carter announces his bid for the Democratic nomination for president.

Event Date: 5-30-1975
Event Description:  Jaworski meets with Strachan again and offers to have the charges dropped.  Strachan says no.  He wants full immunity. 

Event Date: 6-4-1975
Event Description:  Jaworski meets with Attorney General Levi about an offer of full immunity to Strachan; Jaworski will only do this is the charges are against Strachan are dropped.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 6-9-1975
Event Description:   Jury selection is very slow.  The judge delays the trial until July 8; Garment objects, but is overruled.

Event Date: 6-10-1975
Event Description:   The charges against Strachan are dropped; Jaworski files a brief in opposition, but the evidence it way too weak.

Event Date: 6-11-1975
Event Description:   Jaworski calls Garment, and tells him that Strachan will be offered immunity (he’s a defense witness).  Garment responds with, “What makes you think Strachan is talking to us? I will be deposing him, if he’s talking.”

Gallup Poll:

Event Description:   Gallup Poll results:

Do you approve of the job Gerald Ford is doing as President?

31% Favorable, 61% Unfavorable

What is your opinion of Richard Nixon?

60% Favorable, 28% Unfavorable.

Do you believe that Richard Nixon is guilty of some or all of the charges he is facing?

47% yes,  41% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he resign?

42% yes, 49% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he be impeached?

41% yes, 51% no.

Who would you prefer to see as President, Richard Nixon or Gerald Ford?

Nixon 55%  Ford 32%

Event Date: 6-13-1975
Event Description:    Strachan deposed.  It goes until 6/16.  What comes out is:

1.  Haldeman and Ehrlichman authorized the illegal activities of the Plumbers, without telling Nixon in advance; he, Strachan, was aware of it.  Neither Haldeman , Ehrlichman nor the tapes gave any indication

2.  Dean authorized the Watergate break-in, primarily for the purposes stated.  Haldeman and Ehrlichman did not know when they first briefed Nixon.

3.  Haldeman and Ehrlichman did not suggest “hush money,” they were looking at money for a defense.

Jaworski is devastated.  Garment is elated.

Event Date: 6-17-1975
Event Description:  All three networks were preparing retrospectives when the news broke at 1:37 PM. 

One count of conspiracy (the first),  Conspiracy to Commit Burglary and Other Crimes, both counts of Burglary,

What’s left are:

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Jaworski says to the Press afterward, “There just isn’t legitimate evidence to try Richard Nixon on these charges.  There will be no appeal."

That night Johnny Carson starts his monologue with, “Tomorrow is the 170th anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo, and today Leon Jaworski met his.”

Event Date: 6-18-1975
Event Description:  Five jurors empaneled to date.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 6-19-1975
Event Description:   Jaworski now surveys the situation.  The case is weak, Liddy will talk, Nixon’s approval is soaring.  He’d hoped to that by this point Nixon would be facing most of the original charges.  Perhaps it’s time to plea bargain.

After consulting with Dash and Thompson, he will make the following offer.

1.  Nixon resigns.

2.  Nixon pleads nolo contendre and gets a suspended sentence with no fine.

That evening, he meets with Garment, who will recommend against it, but will pass it to Nixon.

Event Date: 6-19-1975
Event Description:   Nixon formally rejects the offer.  Garment tell Jaworski, “He laughed at it.”  One more juror selected.

Event Date: 6-20-1975
Event Description:   Two jurors selected, eight total.

Event Date: 6-22-1975
Event Description:  The Sunday talk shows have numerous former Nixon staffers complaining about the, “Travesty of justice.”  Pat Buchannan on Issues and Answers calls on Ford to pardon Nixon.

For the other side, there are Rep. Rodino, Wrangle, and Sen. Bentson.  Bentson again criticizes the Senate for not moving on with the impeachment trial, and declares that “Nixon is guilty, no matter what the courts say.”

The Free Market hits number one on the NYT best seller list.  If will remain there until the first week in October.

Event Date: 6-23-1975
Event Description:   Ford announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.  He notes, “President Nixon cannot, constitutionally, run in 1976, whatever the result of this trial.”  James Baker, an Undersecretary of Commerce, will chair the campaign.

Another Juror selected.

Event Date: 6-24-1975
Event Description:  Two more Jurors selected.

Event Date: 6-25-1975
Event Description: 

Gallup Poll results:

Do you approve of the job Gerald Ford is doing as President?

33% Favorable, 58% Unfavorable

What is your opinion of Richard Nixon?

65% Favorable, 25% Unfavorable.

Do you believe that Richard Nixon is guilty of some or all of the charges he is facing?

39% yes,  55% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he resign?

44% yes, 46% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he be impeached?

38% yes, 55% no.

Who would you prefer to see as President, Richard Nixon or Gerald Ford?

Nixon 55%  Ford 32%

Another juror selected.  Jaworsky ask for a one day break.

Event Date: 6-26-1975
Event Description:  8:00 AM.  Jaworski, Thompson and Dash again consult.   They agree to offer Nixon another deal.  Nolo contendre, suspended sentence, and Nixon does not have to resign.  Thompson notes that he could still be impeached.  Jaworski notes that he could be even if he’s found guilty and he says something that has been unspoken between these men until now, “Even if Nixon is convicted, I doubt if the sentence can be imposed upon him.  He’s trying to run out the clock.”

At 11:30 AM Jaworski calls Garment and makes the offer.  At 4:30 PM Garment responds with, “You better get you ducks in a row; we’re going to trial.”

At 7:00 PM, “the Troika,” as they’ve become known meet again.  They develop a strategy of not fighting out side issues, especially jury selections.  If it doesn’t matter, don’t delay.

Event Date: 6-27-1975
Event Description:  As a result of the new strategy, the remaining jurors and two alternates are selected.

Event Date: 6-29-1975
Event Description:  Sen. Church pens an op ed piece in the Washington Post on how the Senate can procede without regard to the result of the trial.

Event Date: 6-30-1975
Event Description:  Bentson announces his bid for the presidency.

A have dozen technical expects on audio taping are qualified as expert witnesses by the defense.  Jaworski offers minimal objections.

[J. J.]

How is this going so far? 

[The Duke]

How is this going so far? 

A+

[dazzleman]

Very interesting J.J.

The fall of Saigon angle is interesting.  In the years after the fall, Nixon repeatedly implied that he would have prevented it from happening had he still been in office.  He never says what he actually would have done, but the implication is that he would have resumed B-52 bombing of North Vietnam in defiance of congressional opposition and prohibitions against Indochina military activity that he himself signed in June 1973.

I wonder what might have happened differently had Ford been the acting president only, and Nixon officially the president and recovering politically, at the time the Vietnam crisis came to a head in early 1975.

[J. J.]

I'm trying to keep a lot of this as close to what really happened.

Strachan really was indicted and had the charges dropped on 6/10/75.  He had the potential of being a central figure.

Bentson really ran for president in 1976.

The part about Dean's wife's roommate has is been claimed books, Liddy currently claims that.  Dean, in fact sued Liddy over it, and lost in court.

The fall of Saigon is one of the numerous things that outraged the GOP right against Ford.

Bush really did write a letter, in early August, calling on Nixon to resign.

Most importantly, Griffin Bell, who in our time line was Carter's first Attorney General, does hold that a sitting President can be tried in court for criminal charges, and testified to such during Clinton's impeachment.

I'm trying to create a credible scenario.

[dazzleman]

I'm trying to keep a lot of this as close to what really happened.

Strachan really was indicted and had the charges dropped on 6/10/75.  He had the potential of being a central figure.

Bentson really ran for president in 1976.

The part about Dean's wife's roommate has is been claimed books, Liddy currently claims that.  Dean, in fact sued Liddy over it, and lost in court.

The fall of Saigon is one of the numerous things that outraged the GOP right against Ford.

Bush really did write a letter, in early August, calling on Nixon to resign.

Most importantly, Griffin Bell, who in our time line was Carter's first Attorney General, does hold that a sitting President can be tried in court for criminal charges, and testified to such during Clinton's impeachment.

I'm trying to create a credible scenario.

I understand.  But that what's make alternative history so difficult.  A small change can have an effect that can ripple through everything.

I happen to think that a lot of what Nixon says about Vietnam is simply bravado and cheap talk.  When he had the power as president, he let the situation slide, and the situation had severely deteriorated before he turned it over to Ford in August 1974.  By that time, it was too late for a different outcome, in my opinion.  Still, it would be interesting to consider the possibility of a politically revitalized Nixon defying the congressional bans on Indochina bombing.  I do know that even in 1975, the North Vietnamese sufficiently feared renewed US bombing to move large numbers of people out of their major cities before they undertook their 1975 offensive.

[J. J.]

I doubt if Nixon would have had the political will to aid South Vietnam, even if in 1975 he had survived Watergate.  This is just basically the same event, but the political effect is different.

The right is saying, "Nixon wouldn't have let this happen," but he probably would have.

[dazzleman]

I doubt if Nixon would have had the political will to aid South Vietnam, even if in 1975 he had survived Watergate.  This is just basically the same event, but the political effect is different.

The right is saying, "Nixon wouldn't have let this happen," but he probably would have.

I agree.  I don't think he would have had a choice.

But the fall of Saigon did cost Ford.  Reagan never discussed it directly in his 1976 run, but what else could he have been referring to when he lamented the "collapse of American will" and the "retreat of American power"?

[J. J.]

I doubt if Nixon would have had the political will to aid South Vietnam, even if in 1975 he had survived Watergate.  This is just basically the same event, but the political effect is different.

The right is saying, "Nixon wouldn't have let this happen," but he probably would have.

I agree.  I don't think he would have had a choice.

But the fall of Saigon did cost Ford.  Reagan never discussed it directly in his 1976 run, but what else could he have been referring to when he lamented the "collapse of American will" and the "retreat of American power"?

In this time line, you will see this theme exploited, more so than in OTL.  I'm planning on running this through the 1976 election, with a reference to 1978.

[dazzleman]

I doubt if Nixon would have had the political will to aid South Vietnam, even if in 1975 he had survived Watergate.  This is just basically the same event, but the political effect is different.

The right is saying, "Nixon wouldn't have let this happen," but he probably would have.

I agree.  I don't think he would have had a choice.

But the fall of Saigon did cost Ford.  Reagan never discussed it directly in his 1976 run, but what else could he have been referring to when he lamented the "collapse of American will" and the "retreat of American power"?

In this time line, you will see this theme exploited, more so than in OTL.  I'm planning on running this through the 1976 election, with a reference to 1978.

I look forward to seeing it.  Very interesting and good work, J.J.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 7-1-1975
Event Description:  Former California Governor Ronald Reagan announces his second bid for the Republican nomination for President.


Event Date: 7-8-1975
Event Description:  Jaworski’s opening statement.  He outlines the case.

1.  The Committee to Re-Elect the President (CRP), engaged in activities that were illegal and were for the specific purpose of  helping Nixon get re-elected.  Jaworski says that “Mr. Nixon knew or had reason to believe and should have known about these actions.”

He includes a massive series of charts showing the “flow of information to Nixon,” all of which passes through Haldeman and Ehrlichman and most of which passes through Magruder and Strachan first.

2.  Nixon conspired with Haldeman,  Ehrlichman, and Dean to (1.) destroying documentary evidence, (2.) concealing the existence of documentary evidence, (3.) promising executive clemency and paying money and causing money to be paid.  Here, Jaworski cites:

1.  The missing 181/2 minutes of tape, and the removal and destruction of evidence from burglar E Howard Hunt’s safe.

2.  Nixon’s refusal to turn over the tapes.

3.  Payments to the Watergate burglars and an offer to Magruder of clemency given through Colson.

The opening statement concluded late on July 9.  The opening statement for the defense will be offered on the next day.


Event Date: 7-10-1975
Event Description:  The defense’s rebuttal. 

“The President had reason to believe and should have known about these actions” Garment begins, rhetorically.  He rattles of some statistics about the size of the campaign staff and then the White House staff, and the civilian Federal government workforce.  “Do any of you really think that one man should know every detail of each one does each day?   President Nixon had no idea that these things were being done in his name!  And, evidence will be produced for that fact.”

He continues on to hit the prosecution’s arguments point by point.  The Links, will stop mostly at Dean, but will include Haldeman.  He concludes that, “There was a ‘Berlin Wall’ surrounding the President on the ‘dirty tricks’ of the campaign.  That ‘Berlin Wall’ kept the information from the President.”

His defense for the obstruction was fairly short.

1.  The tape was accidentally erased; Garment will offer proof

2.  The refusal was based on Nixon’s attempt to quash the subpoena for the taped, “and there is nothing illegal in that.”

3.  Nixon did not offer anything other than paying for a legal defense; Colson suggested the pardon to Haldeman, who was non-committal.

He then moves to have the part of the obstruction on Nixon appealing the subpoena be removed.  The judge concurs.

Event Date: 7-12-1975
Event Description: 
Hunt is the first witness.  He testifies in line with his previous testimony before the Ervin committee and his own trial.  Garment does not even cross examine him.  Same with McCord, the second witness.

[J. J.]

Event Date: 7-15-1975
Event Description: 

Fred LaRue, the “Bagman,” is called to testify.  On short direct testimony he admits to delivering money to the burglars. 

On cross, re-direct, re-cross, which lasts until the 17th, he states repeatedly that the purpose was for attorney fees, not to “buy anyone off.”  He further states that the order came from a meeting from Mitchell and Dean and that he only heard about it after the break –in.

Event Date: 7-18-75
Event Description:  Former Attorney General and Chairman of CRP, John Mitchell is the next to testify.  He testifies that there were conversations about the payouts with Dean,  Magruder, Liddy and Strachan, but not Haldeman,  Ehrlichman, or Nixon. 

He specifically states

His testimony continues through 7/22/75

Gallup Poll results:

Do you approve of the job Gerald Ford is doing as President?

33% Favorable, 57% Unfavorable

What is your opinion of Richard Nixon?

66% Favorable, 25% Unfavorable.

Do you believe that Richard Nixon is guilty of some or all of the charges he is facing?

38% yes,  54% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he resign?

40% yes, 48% no.

If Richard Nixon is found guilty of any of the allegation he is currently charged with, should he be impeached?

37% yes, 57% no.

Who would you prefer to see as President, Richard Nixon or Gerald Ford?

Nixon 57%  Ford 30%

Event Date: 7-23-75
Event Description:  Magruder testifies.  He claims that he heard Nixon, in a phone call, order the break-in.  He also testifies that he did not inform the President about the breaking, but had spoken to Dean regarding it.

On cross, he admits to passing the room when he heard “part of the conversation.”  He believes that Mitchell and LaRue were present.

Jaworski recalls both Mitchell and LaRue, who remember the call and testify that this was not the conversation.  The call was to Dean. 

Jaworski was bluffing, hoping that Magruder was right, and knowing that Dean did not get the call.  It did not work.

Event Date: 7-24-75
Event Description:  Dean, the star witness, is called.  Over the next three days, Dean testifies.  He admits to authorizing Watergate and only telling Strachan after the first break-in.  His first mention of it to Nixon was after the break-in.  He never told Nixon that he authorized it.  Nixon, at the defense table, shakes his head slightly.

He does mention the discussion of money, but, on cross, admits that they never discussed clemency; the money could have referred to payment of legal fees.   He also, when confronted with the transcripts, admits that Nixon never suggested perjury or suggested how anyone should plead.

Garment:  When you said “That there was cancer growing near the presidency,” did you mean that the cancer was the President?”

Dean:  No.

Garment:  Did you feel, at that point, as an attorney, that President Nixon had obstructed justice or induced anyone to commit perjury?

Dean:  Ah, no, or I wouldn’t have said it.


Dean also states that he was not the recipient of the call Magruder heard; he further states that it was impossible as the idea for the break-in was his.

[dazzleman]

J.J., I do have to say that having lived through that time (as did you -- we are exactly the same age), I find such a sharp recovery of Nixon's political fortunes pretty implausible.

[J. J.]

J.J., I do have to say that having lived through that time (as did you -- we are exactly the same age), I find such a sharp recovery of Nixon's political fortunes pretty implausible.

Well, there are a couple of things.  First of all, in OTL Nixon had about 30% support, so that's the base.

Second, it's not sharp.  It bottomed out in 11/74; it's been building since then.

Third, Nixon, in office, got sick; in OTL, Nixon was out by that time.  A lot of this is sympathy.  The American public is saying to itself, "Maybe we came close to hounding Nixon to death."

Fourth, Watergate, in the public mind was largely that Nixon ordered a burglary.  That was a very understandable criminal action.  Those charges were dropped and there is an admission that he did not know about it.  The charges left are a bit more abstract.  It looks to the American public that he violated the technicalities, but not the substance, of the law.

Fifth, people are comparing Nixon to Ford, and Nixon wins this comparison.  It is the idea that "Nixon might be a crook, but he's a competent crook.  Ford's a Boy Scout (actually an Eagle Scout), but he's incompentent."

Sixth, Nixon started this fight an ill man, well below any expectation of success.  He's the underdog fighting against the odds.  The fight helps him.

I'm suggesting that a combination of all of these things came together to boost his numbers, over an 8-9 month period.