2016 if Gary Johnson does better

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Say Johnson manages to avoid the Aleppo gaffe and continues to poll as well as he did in the summer to the point where he's included in the debates and comes off looking likable next to Hillary and Trump. With greater name recognition then OTL the Access Hollywood tape followed by the reopening of the Hillary e-mail investigation allow him to surge in the last two weeks of the race. What effect does it have on the outcome?

[KaiserDave]

Johnson probably gets Perot '96 numbers, maybe even hits double digits. Helps Trump along the line in some states, maybe New Mexico or Colorado.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Johnson probably gets Perot '96 numbers, maybe even hits double digits. Helps Trump along the line in some states, maybe New Mexico or Colorado.

It'd help Hillary in other places as well. I think he drew votes from both parties.

[DPKdebator]

Johnson probably gets Perot '96 numbers, maybe even hits double digits. Helps Trump along the line in some states, maybe New Mexico or Colorado.

It'd help Hillary in other places as well. I think he drew votes from both parties.

Most likely- I think ultimately the effect of Gary getting 10% is a wash.

[Agonized-Statism]

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM) / Fmr. Governor Bill Weld (L-MA)

I doubt his numbers improve significantly, but if he gets to Perot margins, we probably see Trump carry some western states but Clinton win more eastern ones. This map is a narrower Trump victory.