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January 28, 2020, 09:25:08 am
News: 2020 Mock/Endorsements for Presidential Primaries are now open.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  2020 Primary maps
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Author Topic: 2020 Primary maps  (Read 2187 times)
Sorenroy
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« Reply #25 on: January 15, 2020, 02:08:10 pm »



State Winners:
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 43.7%
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 37.1%


Thanks to Horatii for the formatting. I updated my prediction yesterday and honestly I think it's too much of a Biden blowout. I had an overly complex equation to find a result so it wasn't just based on my own opinion, but it lead to a Biden consolidation that just won't happen in the real world. Some opposition candidate will end up coming forward and winning a few states, even if Biden becomes the clear winner.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2020, 02:28:14 am »



State Winners:
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 43.0%
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 39.2%


I decided to go back and update my prediction given Sanders's continued climb in the polls. I think it gives Sanders a little too much of an edge in some states, especially those with large Hispanic constituencies, but the map is much more in line with what I think the race might actually look like. Again, this is based on a rough equation I put together, which is why it doesn't match my exact thinking.

I've noticed that my predictions seem to swing wildly whenever I update them. My first was one of the most Warren-favoring on Atlas (back near the height of her polling), my second, posted almost two weeks ago, was one of the most Biden, and my current one (above) is one of the most Sanders. I doubt that bodes well for the accuracy of my predictions this year.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2020, 04:30:49 am »
« Edited: January 27, 2020, 04:36:52 am by Interlocutor »




Not getting into specific margins.

I'm most iffy about Illinois & New York. However, I'll go bold and say Bernie eeks past both
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Laki
Lakigigar
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« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2020, 05:20:21 am »



Maybe IL and Pa flip too.
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