2020 Primary maps

[Sorenroy]

State Winners:
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 43.7%
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 37.1%

Thanks to Horatii for the formatting. I updated my prediction yesterday and honestly I think it's too much of a Biden blowout. I had an overly complex equation to find a result so it wasn't just based on my own opinion, but it lead to a Biden consolidation that just won't happen in the real world. Some opposition candidate will end up coming forward and winning a few states, even if Biden becomes the clear winner.

[Sorenroy]

State Winners:
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 43.0%
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 39.2%

I decided to go back and update my prediction given Sanders's continued climb in the polls. I think it gives Sanders a little too much of an edge in some states, especially those with large Hispanic constituencies, but the map is much more in line with what I think the race might actually look like. Again, this is based on a rough equation I put together, which is why it doesn't match my exact thinking.

I've noticed that my predictions seem to swing wildly whenever I update them. My first was one of the most Warren-favoring on Atlas (back near the height of her polling), my second, posted almost two weeks ago, was one of the most Biden, and my current one (above) is one of the most Sanders. I doubt that bodes well for the accuracy of my predictions this year.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not getting into specific margins.

I'm most iffy about Illinois & New York. However, I'll go bold and say Bernie eeks past both

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Maybe IL and Pa flip too.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biggest surprise TX.

Bellwether states: IL, OK, NY, OH, MI, PA and TX

[Sorenroy]

Delegate Winners:
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 41.8% (1,972)
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 42.2% (1,965)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) - (29)
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) - (13)

With less than a day left before Iowa, I entered the last of the polls recorded by 538 and updated my model/prediction one last time. Horribly, it threw this back at me: a brokered convention where Biden and Sanders are locked into a fierce competition that leads to a devastating delegate/popular vote split. I can only imagine how insane the convention would get if this were the actual result, as the split and narrowness of the result would likely allow the few remaining Superdelegates to choose Biden on a second ballot.

[Sorenroy]

State Winners:
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) - 42.9%
Vice President Joe Biden (DE) - 39.6%

I'm not quite ready to give up on Biden being the main moderate contender yet, but I do think that Sanders has taken the clear lead. The map is also probably too favorable to both candidates, as strong Buttigieg showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, plus Bloomberg's strength in later states, probably mean that the field stays divided for longer. My Atlas New Hampshire prediction is locked into >30% Sanders, but I just don't see his room for growth in such a crowded field. Would love to be proved wrong, but with five candidates potentially hitting double digits, and decent Yang + Gabbard campaigns, where does the extra couple of percents come from to push him over that threshold?