Who Will Win MN SD 11 Special GE 2019?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

One of the first exciting elections of the new year. I know that I will be watching this over whatever state of the union stuff is going on. That said, I wish Walz had not picked the guy from this senate seat, totally unnecessary. I think Jason Rarick (R) will beat Stu Lourey 52-48 in the senate district. I think partisanship prevails.

Edit 1: I learned there is a third party candidate, so I am now revising my guess to 51-46 Rarick.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In regards to "partisanship", this is a Walz/Smith district. And the special election environment of last year had no reason to change now.

I'm going to predict a hold.

[Politician]

Rarick because I'm a pessimist.

[smoltchanov]

Rarick because I'm a pessimist.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lourey 53-47. Special election turnout + native Dem strength should help him here.

[Zaybay]

Gonna go with Lourey on this one.

[lfromnj]

damn this district had a large swing

Two parts

A is the industrial WWC duluth burbs(think macomb county not orange county)
B is farm country
In 2016 part A was won by Clinton by 2 points but Part B was won by Trump by 30 points!
In 2012 Obama won Part A by 26 points and Romney won Part B by 4 points.
Infact dems held the part B house seat until 2014(and obviously still hold part A)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

damn this district had a large swing

Two parts

A is the industrial WWC duluth burbs(macomb like not orange county)
B is farm country
In 2016 part A was won by Clinton by 2 points but Part B was won by Trump by 30 points!
In 2012 Obama won Part A by 26 points and Romney won Part B by 4 points.
Infact dems held the part B house seat until 2014(and obviously still hold part A)

So, who do you wins tonight?

[lfromnj]

damn this district had a large swing

Two parts

A is the industrial WWC duluth burbs(macomb like not orange county)
B is farm country
In 2016 part A was won by Clinton by 2 points but Part B was won by Trump by 30 points!
In 2012 Obama won Part A by 26 points and Romney won Part B by 4 points.
Infact dems held the part B house seat until 2014(and obviously still hold part A)

So, who do you wins tonight?

Going with the D in any reasonable special election
However the one downside for D's is Minnesota still has decent turnout in a lot of elections.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So it begins.

[Canis]

So it begins.

No now it ends.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Walz, my god, why. Was it that hard to just pick someone from a safe seat?

[Woody]

Lourey got slaughtered.

[Virginiá]

Lourey got slaughtered.

lol what

6% win is a comfortable win but it's far from "slaughtered"

learn words or something mate

[smoltchanov]

So it begins.

No now it ends.

Imho - it neither begins, nor ends. Democratic problems in rural and blue-collar areas will continue for considerable time, as well as "suburban realignment". May be 15-20 years from now the word "ends" becomes applicable..

[ElectionsGuy]

Lourey 53-47. Special election turnout + native Dem strength should help him here.

Nope. Good luck to Democrats trying to get these areas "back to normal".

[DINGO Joe]

Pine and Kannabec are both in the bottom ten in Minnesota for college education rates, both below 15% , so the great divide continues.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Walz, my god, why. Was it that hard to just pick someone from a safe seat?

[Canis]

So it begins.

No now it ends.

Imho - it neither begins, nor ends. Democratic problems in rural and blue-collar areas will continue for considerable time, as well as "suburban realignment". May be 15-20 years from now the word "ends" becomes applicable..

This was a reference to this sir
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aO_CsqfBAo

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I guessed 51-46 Rarick. It was 52-46 Rarick. Not bad, not bad at all.