Top 10 2018 Democratic Pickups

[progressive85]

These are the Republican incumbents from 2016 that won with less than 55% of the vote.  In parenthesis is their percentage of the vote.

[jamestroll]

Please keep in mind that individual districts will have different circumstances, and some Republican incumbents that won over 60% could be in trouble if they had a serious challenger. I shall not predict individual house races right now.

Edit: and of course a bunch of the people who listed might and probably will win.

But I must say the Democrats have a better chance at the house and local/state governments than the Senate in 2018.

[Heisenberg]

Please keep in mind that individual districts will have different circumstances, and some Republican incumbents that won over 60% could be in trouble if they had a serious challenger. I shall not predict individual house races right now.

Edit: and of course a bunch of the people who listed might and probably will win.

But I must say the Democrats have a better chance at the house and local/state governments than the Senate in 2018.

Basically this. There were many, many Republicans who won comfortably in 2004 that lost in 2006. Some, like Ann Wagner, are just strong incumbents whose seats are WAY more vulnerable if open. Some of the people on this list may cross 60%, or may even luck out and run unopposed. You just never now this early.
But I did vote for
Jeff Denham
Darrell Issa
Mike Coffman
Will Hurd
Barbara Comstock

Did not choose any others, but I think that 2018 will see some "surprises" from both sides. Tom Price's seat (GA-06) will have a special (assuming he gets confirmed) and that will be one to watch, Trump only narrowly won the seat despite Romney winning it comfortably just four years earlier.

[Young Conservative]

Please keep in mind that individual districts will have different circumstances, and some Republican incumbents that won over 60% could be in trouble if they had a serious challenger. I shall not predict individual house races right now.

Edit: and of course a bunch of the people who listed might and probably will win.

But I must say the Democrats have a better chance at the house and local/state governments than the Senate in 2018.

Basically this. There were many, many Republicans who won comfortably in 2004 that lost in 2006. Some, like Ann Wagner, are just strong incumbents whose seats are WAY more vulnerable if open. Some of the people on this list may cross 60%, or may even luck out and run unopposed. You just never now this early.
But I did vote for
Jeff Denham
Darrell Issa
Mike Coffman
Will Hurd
Barbara Comstock

Did not choose any others, but I think that 2018 will see some "surprises" from both sides. Tom Price's seat (GA-06) will have a special (assuming he gets confirmed) and that will be one to watch, Trump only narrowly won the seat despite Romney winning it comfortably just four years earlier.

I think most of these suburban districts will still vote generic R over Generic D despite voting HRC over DJT. It will be interesting to see if I'm correct though. Also, we will have to see which districts have the current incumbent still running. I could see Mia Love and DEFINETLY Comstock running for higher office in 2018, making their seats more vulnerable.

[JGibson]

Don Young
Jeff Denham
Darrell Issa
Mike Coffman
Carlos Curbelo
Mike Bost
Jason Lewis
Will Hurd
Barbara Comstock

[KingSweden]

I would not be surprised if Issa retired, honestly.

House seats are tough to call but I think Democrats win 10-15 seats. Not enough to regain the Chamber, of course, but enough to make a dent.

[progressive85]

If the last two days are any indicator of this Republican government, I think the Democrats could actually have a wave election like 2006.

[KingSweden]

Some thought (bear with me, I'm on mobile):

We saw the difference in 2004 and 2006. We also saw what happened to many longtime Democrats in 2010-14, which decimated the bench nationwide. I think Democrats are better positioned to rebound in the Midwest short term than in the South, personally.

I think we ignore Rod Blum at our peril. Vernon was a bust, sure, but with Teump's numbers I don't think he was losing this year, period. Rob Hogg is in this district - if he wanted to give it a shot rather than run for Gov, I'd consider him the best candidate (or Tyler Olson, but I think he could have statewide potential)

There are other candidates in suburban seats who could be top targets. Roskam and Hultgren deserve top tier opponents for no other reason than the suburbs aren't Trump country. Same with districts in Michigan, especially if Whitmer keeps looking strong.

Others have touched on the CA districts but in Washington there are Beutler and Reichert at minimum who should no longer get free rides. Tim Leavitt's time may be now. Indeed, mayors should be the first line of recruits since they have records of "getting stuff done" and are where the D party's talent lies. Jim Gray against Andy Barr? Could be a sleeper.

My point is that there are a LOT of districts where if Democrats give two craps they could compete.

[JerryArkansas]

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Carlos Curbelo have to be some of the top targets.  They now sit in districts with D+5 and 6 respectively.  They deserve no free rides.

[arjavrawal]

Curbelo was a target last cycle until Joe Garcia was nominated. If Taddeo runs again, she can probably win. Ros-Lehtinen is quite bearable and very much a moderate by today's standards.

Here in my home state of California, I'd say the targets remain pretty much the same -- Democrats will likely target the 49th, the 21st, the 25th, and the 10th.

[smoltchanov]

Curbelo was a target last cycle until Joe Garcia was nominated. If Taddeo runs again, she can probably win. Ros-Lehtinen is quite bearable and very much a moderate by today's standards.

Curbello is relatively moderate too. And Taddeo lost 3 or 4 races in a row IIRC, so i don't see her as a very strong candidate...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Please keep in mind that individual districts will have different circumstances, and some Republican incumbents that won over 60% could be in trouble if they had a serious challenger. I shall not predict individual house races right now.

Edit: and of course a bunch of the people who listed might and probably will win.

But I must say the Democrats have a better chance at the house and local/state governments than the Senate in 2018.

Basically this. There were many, many Republicans who won comfortably in 2004 that lost in 2006. Some, like Ann Wagner, are just strong incumbents whose seats are WAY more vulnerable if open. Some of the people on this list may cross 60%, or may even luck out and run unopposed. You just never now this early.
But I did vote for
Jeff Denham
Darrell Issa
Mike Coffman
Will Hurd
Barbara Comstock

Did not choose any others, but I think that 2018 will see some "surprises" from both sides. Tom Price's seat (GA-06) will have a special (assuming he gets confirmed) and that will be one to watch, Trump only narrowly won the seat despite Romney winning it comfortably just four years earlier.

I think most of these suburban districts will still vote generic R over Generic D despite voting HRC over DJT. It will be interesting to see if I'm correct though. Also, we will have to see which districts have the current incumbent still running. I could see Mia Love and DEFINETLY Comstock running for higher office in 2018, making their seats more vulnerable.

Or maybe nearly all of them will vote generic D, and both those incumbents are vulnerable in their current seats and run for reelection and lose, real interesante. 

[here2view]

Interesting that Hurd got the 2nd most votes in this poll, yet the Democrats still took the House with him winning in November.