Thai general election - March 24, 2019: Sound and fury, signifying nothing

[Simfan34]

to be edited

but unsure if the mushrooms in the risotto I had for dinner were not actually hallucinogenic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is a new Thaksinite party reforming for the occasion, or has the country plunged fully into sham democracy?

[Simfan34]

Is a new Thaksinite party reforming for the occasion, or has the country plunged fully into sham democracy?

Both. I think. Once I'm sure I'm not imagining this latest news I'll update the OP with proper background.

[Oryxslayer]

The generals have promised to restore democracy and hold elections for a while now, albeit shackled under the new constitution that allows the generals to retain some say from the barracks. So we will see just how flawed this democracy really is.

Interestingly Princess Ubolratana is standing as a PM candidate, the first time a royal has done this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interestingly Princess Ubolratana is standing as a PM candidate, the first time a royal has done this.

Versatile woman. After winning a gold medal in sailing in the 1967 Southeast Asian Games, she graduated from MIT and UCLA and lived roughly 30 years in the United States... most of that time with her American husband and their three children in San Diego. After her divorce, she returned to Thailand and eventually started a acting career:

[jaichind]

I am surprised that Pheu Tha will be allowed to run.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Apparently Ubolratana is 67? (!!!)

This is real life trolling I tell you.

[Simfan34]

Vajiralongkorn has issued a decree denouncing his sister's candidature as inappropriate, unconstitutional, and grossly incongruent with the principles of constitutional monarchy.

He's not at all wrong, but this news broke just after I had a conversation with an old professor and a Thai diplomat friend in  which we all agreed that there's no way Ubolratana could be doing this without her brother's express consent.

Either way the Rubicon has been crossed.

[PSOL]

I am surprised that Pheu Tha will be allowed to run.

Thailand is heavily interconnected as an emerging market to Europe and the US. Cracking down on democracy will actually affect the elite, unlike the Khashoggi incident to the Saudis. The situation isn’t favorable enough to go full dictatorship.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following the King's decree, Ubolratana's party has withdrawn her candidacy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/09/thai-princess-running-for-pm-says-she-wants-country-moving-forward

[Simfan34]

We're a week away!

[jaichind]

So the 4 parties in the running are

Pheu Thai -  pro-Thaksin populist
Democrat Party- anti-Thaksin and pro-establishment
Palang Pracharath - pro-Junta
Future Forward - Center-Left Progressive

The polls have Pheu Thai ahead with a small lead but it does not look like any party will form a majority. Most likely a  Democrat Party and Palang Pracharath post-election coalition government but that is a wild guess.   What Pheu Thai  has to hope for is that pro-Thaksin voters in the rural North are afraid to tell pollsters their preferences but come out in large numbers election day to vote Pheu Thai to sweep the North.

[jaichind]

This election will elect 500 members of the lower house.  The PM will be selected by a joint sitting of the 500 elected members and a 250 member Senate (almost all of which are appointed by the ruling junta.)  So Palang Pracharath needs to win somewhere above 1/4 of the 500 seats up for election to be able to re-elect Prayut  as PM.

It really depends but I am not sure  Palang Pracharath can get to 125 seats.  In rural areas Pheu Thai  and allies will sweep the district seats and in urban areas I think it will be a multi-cornered fight between the various parties.  What will help Palang Pracharath is the PR seats are 150 out of 500 instead of 125 in 2011 elections.  Palang Pracharath should be able to get around 40 PR seats right there.  Then it is about somehow getting 90 seats out of the FPTP seats.  I suspect Palang Pracharath will not get there but in such a situation the anti-Thaksin but somewhat negative on the junta  Democrat Party should then hold the balance of power as there is very little chance the anti-junta parties Pheu Thai and allies plus Future Forward  can win 3/4 of the 500 seats for a majority.

So net result is some sort of deal between Prayut and Democrat Party for Prayut to continue as PM with some power sharing with  Democrat Party.   Democrat Party leader and ex-PM Abhisit Vejjajiva might even make a comeback to become PM again with junat support.

[Famous Mortimer]

This election will elect 500 members of the lower house.  The PM will be selected by a joint sitting of the 500 elected members and a 250 member Senate (almost all of which are appointed by the ruling junta.)  So Palang Pracharath needs to win somewhere above 1/4 of the 500 seats up for election to be able to re-elect Prayut  as PM.

It really depends but I am not sure  Palang Pracharath can get to 125 seats.  In rural areas Pheu Thai  and allies will sweep the district seats and in urban areas I think it will be a multi-cornered fight between the various parties.  What will help Palang Pracharath is the PR seats are 150 out of 500 instead of 125 in 2011 elections.  Palang Pracharath should be able to get around 40 PR seats right there.  Then it is about somehow getting 90 seats out of the FPTP seats.  I suspect Palang Pracharath will not get there but in such a situation the anti-Thaksin but somewhat negative on the junta  Democrat Party should then hold the balance of power as there is very little chance the anti-junta parties Pheu Thai and allies plus Future Forward  can win 3/4 of the 500 seats for a majority.

So net result is some sort of deal between Prayut and Democrat Party for Prayut to continue as PM with some power sharing with  Democrat Party.   Democrat Party leader and ex-PM Abhisit Vejjajiva might even make a comeback to become PM again with junat support.

Abhisit Vejjajiva as PM would kill Palang Pracharath support in the next election.

[Simfan34]

The whole point is to transform the junta into an electoral regime. This is how several regimes have operated in Thailand before, and the NCPO is in fact unusual in having persisted for so long without elections. This was the MO of Prem-ocracy in the 1980s, Kriangsak (briefly) in the late 70s, and Thanom from 1969 until his autocoup two years later. (Suchinda also attempted it until he was forced out in the 1993 uprising.)

The reason for continual postponement has been the inability of the junta to eradicate the Thaksin movement as a meaningful political force. The junta has run out of excuses to put off the election any further, so they're being held now; plus, the King appears to be of the view, for whatever reason, that they need to be held (when the coronation date was announced, there was talk of pushing them back again until after the coronation, but the palace was subsequently very clear in specifying they wanted elections to be held before the coronation).

Anyway, for that reason it is highly unlikely Abhisit will be returning to power. Furthermore, while he   has made clear his opposition to Prayuth's return to power, this is not at all a view uniform amongst Democrat Party members. Many of them will probably end up voting for Prayuth anyways. Abhisit will quit the leadership if/when this happens. Most of the smaller parties are rent-a-vote clientelistic outfits, so they will naturally gravitate to whoever appears most likely to form a government (aside from, say, the "Liberal" Party, a rather transparently police-oriented outfit, or the quasi-socialist Commoners' Party). It is quite perverse, but Pheu Thai may end up theoretically being able to form a majority coalition in the lower house (PT+FF+minor) but still be shut out of power. But again, that's precisely the point. What is not the point, but will certainly be the case, is built-in instability-- this political system virtually guarantees it.

If I had make a "prediction", it would be something like this (MoE: 5%)

Pheu Thai: 35%
Palang Pracharaj: 20%
Democrat: 15%
Future Forward: 10%
Other: 20%

[bigic]

Is there any chance of Democrats ruling in a government that includes or is supported by Pheu Thai? Or the animosity between them is just too deep?

[Simfan34]

Is there any chance of Democrats ruling in a government that includes or is supported by Pheu Thai? Or the animosity between them is just too deep?

There was talk about a anti-junta grand alliance in 2017, but nothing came of it. There are certainly more Democrats that would prefer joining a Palang Pracharaj government than Pheu Thai one.

[jaichind]

Is there any chance of Democrats ruling in a government that includes or is supported by Pheu Thai? Or the animosity between them is just too deep?

Very unlikely.  The Democrats I think are not huge fans of the junta but key factions within the party view the Thaksin crowd as their main enemy.  This actually have a lot to do with different factional battles within the Royal but is too complex for me to comprehend.

[LoneStarDem]

Big question is whether Thai PM Prayut Chan-o-cha gets elected to stay in office for awhile ?

[jaichind]

Voting over. It seems turnout is well over 80%

Two sets of exit polls (out of 500 seats): 

One has it at Palang Pracharath with 135-140 and Pheu Thai with 120-135 
The other has it at Pheu Thai with 163 and  Palang Pracharath  with 96

One way or another it seems  Palang Pracharath should have enough to either form a government by itself with the 250 member pro-junta Senate or form one with Democrat party which I assume would have to come aboard eventually.

[jaichind]

Government controlled Thai PBS has vote share projections of

Palang Pracharath  25.9%
Pheu Thai              25.6%
Future Forward      20.5%
Democrat Party      15.1%

Palang Pracharath ahead in Bangkok and Central Thailand
Pheu Thai ahead in in North Thailand (as expected)
Democrat Party ahead in Western Thailand
Furture Foward ahead in Southern Thailand

In Bangkok  Palang Pracharath is well ahead and should sweep the seats there.  In Central Thailand it is neck-to-neck between Palang Pracharath and Pheu Thai.  In Southern Thailand it is neck-to-neck between Future Forward and Palang Pracharath(make sense as Thaksin forces have always been weak here).  In Northern Thailand it is Pheu Thai well ahead.  In Western Thailand it is Democrat Party somewhat ahead of Palang Pracharath.

If these projections are true then if Palang Pracharath can hold its lead over Pheu Thai in Central Thailand it should be in a strong position to form the government. 

[jaichind]

With some initial results in with a bias toward Central Thailand which most likely is around 10% of the vote the seat projections are

Pheu Thai                  163
Palang Pracharath      128
Bhumjaithai Party        78  (Center-Right populist - historically allied with Pheu Thai or Democrat)
Future Forward            55
Democratic Party         25
Chartthaipattana Party 11  (Center-Right populist - historically allied with Pheu Thai)

Bhumjaithai Party seems to be doing much better than expected.  It seems a good part of the Democrat vote went over to Palang Pracharath to stop Pheu Thai.  On the other hand these votes have a bias toward Central Thailand where Bhumjaithai Party is historically strong.

[jaichind]

Latest projection ...

Pheu Thai                  142
Palang Pracharath      135
Future Forward            72
Bhumjaithai Party        62  (Center-Right populist - historically allied with Pheu Thai or Democrat)
Democratic Party         33
Chartthaipattana Party 11  (Center-Right populist - historically allied with Pheu Thai)

Count going in the Palang Pracharath direction ...

[jaichind]

These projection seems to be with 82% of the vote counted (unofficially).  If so it seems Palang Pracharath  did it in its go to win enough seats to form the government.

[Simfan34]

Palang Pracharaj is quickly catching up to Pheu Thai, but these results don't quite suggest that.

Pheu Thai Palang Pracharaj Future Forward Bhumjaithai Democrat

174 140 57 64 47

82% in.