Predict the next 5 Presidents of the United States (user search)
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Author Topic: Predict the next 5 Presidents of the United States  (Read 18424 times)
dw93
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« on: February 10, 2019, 05:31:40 AM »

2020:

An early 90's or early 2000's style recession breaks out between now and election day 2020 and the Mueller investigation concludes with dirt on Trump, but none that's damaging enough to trigger impeachment.

Senator Bernard Sanders / Senator Kamala Harris (Democratic): 285 EV, 50.1% PV
President Donald Trump / Vice President Mike Pence (Republican): 253 EV, 45.5% PV



2024:
President Sanders suffers a mild stroke after the 2022 midterms which sees a narrow Republican takeover of the House and a net gain of 1 seat in the Senate for the Democrats, upping their majority there to 51 seats. Sanders announces just two days after his 2023 State of the Union Address that he will not seek or accept another term for President. Vice President Kamala Harris runs unopposed for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tom Cotton, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley seek the Republican nomination. Pence narrowly clenches the nomination, choosing Senator Tim Scott as his running mate. With a recovered economy and Peace abroad, Vice President Harris and her running mate Senator Jeff Merkley defeat Pence and Scott:



The Democrats retake the House, while the Senate goes back to being split.

2028:
The Economy continues to grow through President Harris's term in office, though tensions increase with Russia. After a 25 year presence in the Country, the United States withdrew the last of its troops from Afghanistan and Harris manages to build on the Green New Deal plan implemented by President Sanders and builds on the Criminal Justice reform passed by President Trump. Despite this, Republicans managed to retake both houses of Congress during the 2026 midterms and so begins gridlock. Despite the gridlock and party fatigue after 8 years of Democrats in the White House, the state of the economy ensure President Harris and Vice President Merkley a re election victory over Republican nominee, Senator Tom Cotton and Florida Senator Rick Scott :



Republicans maintain both houses of Congress despite a Harris win.

2032:
Recession breaks out in the Summer of 2030 and the midterms that fall give the GOP its largest Congressional Majorities since the 2014 midterms. Outside of nominating a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor, Harris spends her entire second term gridlock. Despite easing tensions with Russia, a weak economy and fears of China's ever growing economic and military strength give the Republican nominee Wisconsin Governor and Former House Speaker Paul Ryan and Running mate Senator Elise Stefanik victory in the Presidential election, over Democratic Texas Governor Beto O'Rourke and Senator Gretchen Whitmer:



2036:
Despite his failed attempt to fully privatize Medicare and Social Security and the biggest Democratic midterm Victory since 1974 taking place in 2034, giving them control of Congress, the economy started to show signs or recovery by 2035 and President Ryan successfully worked with the international community to curtail China's Military strength while also brokering the US Chinese Fair trade deal of 2036. He also worked with a Democratic Congress to give tax credits to Businesses who made the full switch to renewable energy. With this, President Ryan sailed to Re election over Senator Gavin Newsom and his running mate, Obscure D from North Carolina:



The Democrats narrowly keep both houses of Congress.

2040:

The economy continues to grow in President Ryan's second term with little international instability. The Democrats only make minimal gains in the 2038 midterms. With the economy at it's peak, VP Stefanik defeats obscure Democratic Senator from Arizona and their running mate from the Rust Belt:



The Democrats keep control of the House, the Senate is split.

2044:

Proxy wars in the Middle East cause Oil Prices to soar and the economy sees its worst downturn since 2008 when the economic bubble of the mid to late Ryan years burst. International instability, war, and a shot economy give the Democrats their largest Presidential victory and Congressional majority, since the Johnson Landslide of 1964:














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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,874
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2019, 08:02:58 PM »

For reference, for the last 5 presidents this would be (guessing from 1988):

1. Sitting Vice President
2. Governor of Arkansas
3. Failed congressional candidate, son of sitting VP
4. Harvard Law school student
5. Real estate mogul

For the 5 before that (guessing from 1962):

1. Sitting Vice President
2. Former vice president
3. U.S. representative
4. Peanut farmer
5. Actor

3. was a sitting VP (from 1973-1974)
4. was the former Governor of Georgia (term was 1971-1975)
5. was the former Governor of California (terms were 1967-1975)
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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,874
United States


« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2020, 11:14:11 PM »

Predictions:

At least one of the next five Presidents will be female.

At least one of the next five Presidents will not be white.

At least two of the next five Presidents will be Democrats.

At least two of the next five Presidents will be Republicans.

How many of them will serve two terms?
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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,874
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2020, 07:16:19 PM »

Time for a Post Election Update:

Joe Biden (Democratic): 2021-2022*
Kamala Harris (Democratic): 2022-2029

Midwestern or Sunbelt Governor (Republican): 2029-2033
Senator from the Sunbelt (Democratic): 2033-2041
Incumbent VP (Democratic): 2041-2045
Midwestern Governor (Republican): 2045-2053**

*= Resigns due to health complications caused from stress of gridlock
**= First Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win Re election

House Control from 2021-2053
Democratic: 2021-2023
Republican: 2023-2031
Democratic: 2031-2035
Republican: 2035-2041
Democratic: 2041-2043
Republican: 2043-2047
Democratic: 2047-2049
Republican: 2049-2051
Democratic: 2051-2053

Senate Control from 2021-2053
Republican: 2021-2023
Democratic: 2023-2027*
Republican: 2027-2031
Democratic: 2031-2039
Republican: 2039-2041
Democratic: 2041-2043*
Republican: 2043-2051
Democratic: 2051-2053

*= Tie broken by Democratic VP from 2025-2027, and again from 2041-2043

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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,874
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2020, 11:29:04 PM »


In the case of my most recent addition, I only had one one-term Republican, and I factored in the business cycle in my list.
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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,874
United States


« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2020, 11:45:13 PM »


In the case of my most recent addition, I only had one one-term Republican, and I factored in the business cycle in my list.
Oh I see does the business cycle also explain the predominantly Democratic presidents?

Yup, they caught the good end of it, as has been the case for most of the last 50 years. Carter was the only Democrat in that time frame that caught the bad end of the business cycle.
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dw93
DWL
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*****
Posts: 4,874
United States


« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2020, 01:13:56 PM »


In the case of my most recent addition, I only had one one-term Republican, and I factored in the business cycle in my list.
Oh I see does the business cycle also explain the predominantly Democratic presidents?

Yup, they caught the good end of it, as has been the case for most of the last 50 years. Carter was the only Democrat in that time frame that caught the bad end of the business cycle.
Interesting, so let’s say hypothetically, Republicans somehow win 2024, but then lose 2028. This would be very good for them in the 2030s and 2040s?


It would be outside of the 2030 senate races where they’ll likely be maxed out.
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