You Are The NRCC, How To Take Back The House?
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  You Are The NRCC, How To Take Back The House?
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Author Topic: You Are The NRCC, How To Take Back The House?  (Read 3204 times)
QAnonKelly
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« Reply #25 on: February 15, 2019, 11:28:57 PM »

The only way to take back the house is to dump Trump which ain’t happening
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here2view
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« Reply #26 on: February 16, 2019, 12:01:30 PM »

Much like the Obama presidency, I think (not guaranteeing anything of course) the House is gone for them for as long as Trump remains president. By that measure, the earliest Republicans could get it back would be 2022 if Trump loses, and 2026 if he wins.

By then demographics and district lines will have changed, so the answer to this question will be different in 3-7 years than it is now. However, for the time being I agree with what most posters have stated for specific seats to target.
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S019
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« Reply #27 on: February 16, 2019, 12:58:33 PM »

But there are districts which the GOP will do better in during a presidential year (NJ 3, NJ 11, NY 11 and 22, NH 1, ME 2, IL 14 and 17, MI 8 and 11, MN 7, IA 1 and 3 (maybe 2), OK 5, SC 1, NM 2, AZ 1, and CA 48 (which has a strong down ballot R lean) come to mind. Many of these districts are still R downballot and especially those that vote for the Dem candidate may be willing to check their power. Others were just flukes (ME 2, SC 1, OK 5, NY 11, NY 22). The GOP taking the majority is unlikely, but they could pick up several of these seats and narrow the Democratic majority.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2019, 07:51:44 PM »

The only way to take back the house is to dump Trump which ain’t happening
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2019, 08:33:53 PM »

But there are districts which the GOP will do better in during a presidential year (NJ 3, NJ 11, NY 11 and 22, NH 1, ME 2, IL 14 and 17, MI 8 and 11, MN 7, IA 1 and 3 (maybe 2), OK 5, SC 1, NM 2, AZ 1, and CA 48 (which has a strong down ballot R lean) come to mind. Many of these districts are still R downballot and especially those that vote for the Dem candidate may be willing to check their power. Others were just flukes (ME 2, SC 1, OK 5, NY 11, NY 22). The GOP taking the majority is unlikely, but they could pick up several of these seats and narrow the Democratic majority.

LOL NJ-11 is gone. And MI-11 and CA-48 probably are too.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2019, 01:05:22 PM »

It's going to take a long-term approach that includes vilification of liberalism, and eventually throwing huge money at any semi-fascist who promises to toe the line of pure plutocracy while pretending to be moderate. Cooperate with front groups like FreedomWorks!, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, and the like who do the dirty work of smear campaigns.

That worked in 2010, and that is the best hope for Republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2019, 04:51:15 PM »

Dems will do better in the rust belt than Clinton and no blue state district probably wont flip.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #32 on: February 18, 2019, 06:15:30 PM »

Target the following people
-AZ: O’Halleran
-CA: Harder, Hill, Cisneros, Porter, Rouda
-CT: Courtney, Hayes
-FL: Murphy, Crist, Murcasel-Powell
-GA: Bishop, McBath
-IA: All three Dems
-IL: Underwood, Bustos
-KS: Davids
-ME: Golden
-MI: Kildee, Slotkin
-MN: Craig, Peterson
-NJ: Van Drew, Kim
-NH: Both Seats
-NM: Torres Small
-NV: Lee, Horsford
-NY: Rose, SP Maloney, Delgado, Brindisi
-OH: Ryan
-OR: Schrader, DeFazio
-PA: Wild, Cartwright
-RI: Langevin
-SC: Cunningham
-TX: Fletcher, Allred
-UT: McAdams
-VA: Luria, Spanberger
-WI: Kind
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #33 on: February 18, 2019, 10:59:01 PM »

Target the following people
-AZ: O’Halleran
-CA: Harder, Hill, Cisneros, Porter, Rouda
-CT: Courtney, Hayes
-FL: Murphy, Crist, Murcasel-Powell
-GA: Bishop, McBath
-IA: All three Dems
-IL: Underwood, Bustos
-KS: Davids
-ME: Golden
-MI: Kildee, Slotkin
-MN: Craig, Peterson
-NJ: Van Drew, Kim
-NH: Both Seats
-NM: Torres Small
-NV: Lee, Horsford
-NY: Rose, SP Maloney, Delgado, Brindisi
-OH: Ryan
-OR: Schrader, DeFazio
-PA: Wild, Cartwright
-RI: Langevin
-SC: Cunningham
-TX: Fletcher, Allred
-UT: McAdams
-VA: Luria, Spanberger
-WI: Kind

Like a dozen of those people are pretty safe for 2020 under current lines, but ok.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #34 on: February 18, 2019, 11:38:43 PM »

Target the following people
-AZ: O’Halleran
-CA: Harder, Hill, Cisneros, Porter, Rouda
-CT: Courtney, Hayes
-FL: Murphy, Crist, Murcasel-Powell
-GA: Bishop, McBath
-IA: All three Dems
-IL: Underwood, Bustos
-KS: Davids
-ME: Golden
-MI: Kildee, Slotkin
-MN: Craig, Peterson
-NJ: Van Drew, Kim
-NH: Both Seats
-NM: Torres Small
-NV: Lee, Horsford
-NY: Rose, SP Maloney, Delgado, Brindisi
-OH: Ryan
-OR: Schrader, DeFazio
-PA: Wild, Cartwright
-RI: Langevin
-SC: Cunningham
-TX: Fletcher, Allred
-UT: McAdams
-VA: Luria, Spanberger
-WI: Kind
I'd cut TX-32 and add MI-11 but other then that this is a good list
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« Reply #35 on: February 19, 2019, 08:33:31 AM »

Target the following people
-AZ: O’Halleran
-CA: Harder, Hill, Cisneros, Porter, Rouda
-CT: Courtney, Hayes
-FL: Murphy, Crist, Murcasel-Powell
-GA: Bishop, McBath
-IA: All three Dems
-IL: Underwood, Bustos
-KS: Davids
-ME: Golden
-MI: Kildee, Slotkin
-MN: Craig, Peterson
-NJ: Van Drew, Kim
-NH: Both Seats
-NM: Torres Small
-NV: Lee, Horsford
-NY: Rose, SP Maloney, Delgado, Brindisi
-OH: Ryan
-OR: Schrader, DeFazio
-PA: Wild, Cartwright
-RI: Langevin
-SC: Cunningham
-TX: Fletcher, Allred
-UT: McAdams
-VA: Luria, Spanberger
-WI: Kind
lol
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beesley
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« Reply #36 on: February 19, 2019, 09:56:22 AM »

Target the following people
-AZ: O’Halleran
-CA: Harder, Hill, Cisneros, Porter, Rouda
-CT: Courtney, Hayes
-FL: Murphy, Crist, Murcasel-Powell
-GA: Bishop, McBath
-IA: All three Dems
-IL: Underwood, Bustos
-KS: Davids
-ME: Golden
-MI: Kildee, Slotkin
-MN: Craig, Peterson
-NJ: Van Drew, Kim
-NH: Both Seats
-NM: Torres Small
-NV: Lee, Horsford
-NY: Rose, SP Maloney, Delgado, Brindisi
-OH: Ryan
-OR: Schrader, DeFazio
-PA: Wild, Cartwright
-RI: Langevin
-SC: Cunningham
-TX: Fletcher, Allred
-UT: McAdams
-VA: Luria, Spanberger
-WI: Kind
lol

Perhaps, but when you consider in 2018 the NRCC were targeting Ed Perlmutter, Denny Heck and Tom Suozzi this seems awfully tame in comparison. Still, Bishop? Langevin?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: February 19, 2019, 03:04:59 PM »



House delegation


I really dont see Trump and McCarthy penetrating the blue wall
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2019, 05:38:05 PM »

Targets should be :

IA 1st
IA 3rd
IL 14th
ME 2nd
MI 8th
MN 7th
NJ 2nd
NJ 3rd
NM 2nd
NY 11th
NY 19th
NY 22nd
OK 5th
PA 8th
UT 4th
SC 1st
VA 2nd
VA 7th
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VPH
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« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2019, 05:42:58 PM »

It won't happen in 2020, so the strategy has to be geared more for 2022 or 2024.

1.) Target the historically Dem, GOP-trending districts. This would be like CT-05, MA-09, MI-05, IA-02, WI-03

2.) Take back some of the losses from 2018, maybe even in 2020, like NY-22, UT-04, NY-19, ME-02, NM-02, OK-05.

3.) Play defense in marginal suburban seats like PA-01, NE-02, NY-01, NY-02 and start to defend some of the suburban seats that are trending Dem over time like IN-05, WI-06, NC-13, NC-02
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2019, 06:56:04 PM »

UT, OK, and SC are gone for sure but blue state freshman are gonna win
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lfromnj
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« Reply #41 on: February 20, 2019, 09:02:09 AM »

Win the roughly dozen low hanging fruit in seats Trump will easily win:
OK-05
MN-07
SC-01
UT-04
ME-02
NM-02
NY-22
NY-11
NY-19
NJ-03
PA-08

Pick up a chunk of GOP-leaning swing seats with non-entrenched Dem incumbents:
IA-01
NH-01
NJ-02
VA-07
VA-02
AZ-01
IA-03
IL-14
MI-08
MN-02

Seriously challenge Dem incumbents in right-trending seats that have yet to be seriously challenged:
WI-03
IA-02
IL-17
OH-09 or whatever Tim Ryan’s seat is


Oh 13th and lol no Tim Ryans seat wont be competetive in 2020 unless he retires and even then its a big if

Its such a D sink even Clinton won it by 7 points
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lfromnj
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« Reply #42 on: February 20, 2019, 12:31:07 PM »

Win the roughly dozen low hanging fruit in seats Trump will easily win:
OK-05
MN-07
SC-01
UT-04
ME-02
NM-02
NY-22
NY-11
NY-19
NJ-03
PA-08

Pick up a chunk of GOP-leaning swing seats with non-entrenched Dem incumbents:
IA-01
NH-01
NJ-02
VA-07
VA-02
AZ-01
IA-03
IL-14
MI-08
MN-02

Seriously challenge Dem incumbents in right-trending seats that have yet to be seriously challenged:
WI-03
IA-02
IL-17
OH-09 or whatever Tim Ryan’s seat is


Oh 13th and lol no Tim Ryans seat wont be competetive in 2020 unless he retires and even then its a big if

Its such a D sink even Clinton won it by 7 points

Dems lost Schiavoni’s old state senate seat in this area in a D+9 wave so I doubt those trends are slowing down

SD 33 Is obama +17 Trump +10.
OH 13th is Obama+25 Clinton+7.



Big difference man
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2019, 04:50:34 PM »

Golden isn't going anywhere unless he leaves and challenges Collins.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #44 on: February 21, 2019, 03:34:02 PM »

Mike Bishop or Mike Rogers can win again.

Oakland County, MI still has old-school traditional Republicans.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #45 on: February 21, 2019, 04:39:26 PM »

Win the roughly dozen low hanging fruit in seats Trump will easily win:
OK-05
MN-07
SC-01
UT-04
ME-02
NM-02
NY-22
NY-11
NY-19
NJ-03
PA-08

Pick up a chunk of GOP-leaning swing seats with non-entrenched Dem incumbents:
IA-01
NH-01
NJ-02
VA-07
VA-02
AZ-01
IA-03
IL-14
MI-08
MN-02

Seriously challenge Dem incumbents in right-trending seats that have yet to be seriously challenged:
WI-03
IA-02
IL-17
OH-09 or whatever Tim Ryan’s seat is


Oh 13th and lol no Tim Ryans seat wont be competetive in 2020 unless he retires and even then its a big if

Its such a D sink even Clinton won it by 7 points

Dems lost Schiavoni’s old state senate seat in this area in a D+9 wave so I doubt those trends are slowing down

SD 33 Is obama +17 Trump +10.
OH 13th is Obama+25 Clinton+7.



Big difference man

Yeah exactly. The main problem with OH 13th is that you have a big share of Akron inside the district.
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S019
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« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2019, 11:10:14 PM »

Challenging Ron Kind, Cheri Bustos, and Tim Ryan is not smart. Also why go after Angie Craig, the Minneapolis suburbs are trending D just because she's more vulnerable than Phililps (who is safe) does not mean she is worth targeting. Also I would argue NJ-02 is low hanging fruit, Van Drew's underwhelming margin against a horrible opponent should be concerning to Democrats. Also it is not the right time to Challenge Matt Cartwright, the GOP should work ousting Peterson, the most vulnerable WWC District Democrat
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #47 on: February 21, 2019, 11:26:40 PM »

Challenging Ron Kind, Cheri Bustos, and Tim Ryan is not smart. Also why go after Angie Craig, the Minneapolis suburbs are trending D just because she's more vulnerable than Phililps (who is safe) does not mean she is worth targeting. Also I would argue NJ-02 is low hanging fruit, Van Drew's underwhelming margin against a horrible opponent should be concerning to Democrats. Also it is not the right time to Challenge Matt Cartwright, the GOP should work ousting Peterson, the most vulnerable WWC District Democrat

I agree with most of this. But I do think it is the right time to challenge Cartwright with Barletta. Also the GOP won't have to work to oust MN 7 Peterson in 2020, he is screwed.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #48 on: February 21, 2019, 11:57:31 PM »

Challenging Ron Kind, Cheri Bustos, and Tim Ryan is not smart. Also why go after Angie Craig, the Minneapolis suburbs are trending D just because she's more vulnerable than Phililps (who is safe) does not mean she is worth targeting. Also I would argue NJ-02 is low hanging fruit, Van Drew's underwhelming margin against a horrible opponent should be concerning to Democrats. Also it is not the right time to Challenge Matt Cartwright, the GOP should work ousting Peterson, the most vulnerable WWC District Democrat

I don't think MN-02 is out of reach just yet. Trump won it IIRC and though the suburbs are trending D hard it's definitely still worth contesting. Jason Lewis was a D-tier candidate and won in 2016.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #49 on: February 22, 2019, 12:43:56 AM »

Saying Ron Kind is safe(I think he is heavily favored) Is like saying Pete sessions is safe in 2017.
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