What are Tennessee Democrats' path forward?

[wesmoorenerd]

Their only hope is that Blackburn becomes as much of a joke as Cruz and that a Beto-type candidate who can generate endless free media and a tidal wave of small donations rises.

Sounds like a massive waste of money. If Beto couldn't do it in Texas, some dude isn't going to be able to do it in Tennessee.

[Gass3268]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

I'd say it's Idaho. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate election there since the 1974, or a gubernatorial election since 1990, and it hasn't shown any signs of trending left.

The rapid growth in Idaho, particularly with folks from California, could push Idaho left and due to its smaller base population than say Tennessee, it wouldn’t take that much.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Their only hope is that Blackburn becomes as much of a joke as Cruz and that a Beto-type candidate who can generate endless free media and a tidal wave of small donations rises.

The demographic trends in Tennessee are not the same as the trends in Texas.  What's more, Cruz is a talented politician and Beto's great skill is being in the right place at the right time.  But I digress...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

[MT Treasurer]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

I'd say it's Idaho. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate election there since the 1974, or a gubernatorial election since 1990, and it hasn't shown any signs of trending left.

The rapid growth in Idaho, particularly with folks from California, could push Idaho left and due to its smaller base population than say Tennessee, it wouldn’t take that much.

Most of the Californians moving to Idaho are conservatives who left CA because they think it's "a socialist hellhole".

So I doubt that will happen.

[Galeel]

Keep trying to compete and put up strong candidates wherever you can. They won't win, but who knows how the state and the politics of the country will change in the future? It is important for the Democratic party to have a presence everywhere, even in places that they can't win.

[MassBlueDog]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

Of the current super Republican states (Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho), I think the order goes (most likely to elect a Dem statewide)
1. West Virginia
2. Wyoming
3. Oklahoma
4. Utah
5. Idaho

[Skunk]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

Of the current super Republican states (Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho), I think the order goes (most likely to elect a Dem statewide)
1. West Virginia
2. Wyoming
3. Oklahoma
4. Utah
5. Idaho

Democrats came within 3% of winning a statewide election in Idaho (Superintendent of Education) in 2018.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

Of the current super Republican states (Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho), I think the order goes (most likely to elect a Dem statewide)
1. West Virginia
2. Wyoming
3. Oklahoma
4. Utah
5. Idaho

This is true, but it's also important to think what trends would have to take place. If Denver sprawls over into Wyoming, the state flips. If Boise hits 2 million people, the state flips. If metropolitan Mormons start voting like their non-Mormon counterparts, Utah flips. Meanwhile, it's a lot harder to see a path forward for Dems in WV, OK, or TN. TN has a strangely high rural base population, and it's rural areas would need to lose a million people while Nashville/Memphis add 2--a high bar. The same could be said for Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, or any number of other Southern states which are below 70% urban.

[RI]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

Of the current super Republican states (Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho), I think the order goes (most likely to elect a Dem statewide)
1. West Virginia
2. Wyoming
3. Oklahoma
4. Utah
5. Idaho

Democrats came within 3% of winning a statewide election in Idaho (Superintendent of Education) in 2018.

Democrats always do relatively well in Idaho's SOE races (and only SOE races) because their school system is absolutely awful.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cut the state in half (just east of Nashville) and compete in the western half.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Meh, Diane Black would have probably done worse than Blackburn in a gubernatorial race against Dean. It’s not impossible for them to win statewide, but it’s arguably the hardest state for a Democrat to win nowadays.

The irredeemable pit known as Arkansas says hello.

True, good point. AR is even more solid than TN.

WY is by far the most Republican state in the union

In presidential elections, yeah. But it’s much easier to envision a Democratic path to winning the governorship of Wyoming than Arkansas, for me at least.

Of the current super Republican states (Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho), I think the order goes (most likely to elect a Dem statewide)
1. West Virginia
2. Wyoming
3. Oklahoma
4. Utah
5. Idaho

I would say Kentucky and Arkansas are more Republican than WV. Manchin probably loses even as an incumbent in KY and AR


This is what I would say though

1. WY
2. OK
3. ID
4. AL
5. UT

[Flyersfan232]

Move to a blue state.

[SInNYC]

2018 proved what is not a winning path to victory: Convince 50% of regular voters to vote D, even if its the best possible D and the worst possible R (from a centrist-for-TN perspective).

Ds need to identify a significant demographic of voters that sat out and address the reasons they sat out. By demographic, I dont mean race/sex/etc, I mean some underlying theme for the reason they didnt vote.

Yes, tall order, especially since they need to do the above without losing too much of their existing voters.

[KaiserDave]

Import Californians or wait for a Republican governor to screw up the state so badly that they can come back a la Laura Kelly and KS Dems.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Have every Democrat move to MS, thus creating a lean D state.

[Roll Roons]

Import Californians or wait for a Republican governor to screw up the state so badly that they can come back a la Laura Kelly and KS Dems.

KS going D also took a very polarizing and controversial GOP nominee.

[pbrower2a]

Move to Virginia.

[Oryxslayer]

The parties path forwards is two quick bullets to the head.

[smoltchanov]

The parties path forwards is two quick bullets to the head.

For BOTH parties. I sincerely hope for next big realignment in next 20 years as both parties became an atrocities now (one - slightly more, but that doesn't change general picture).. In my 60+ years of life i never saw US politics in such disgusting shape - even in Watergate time, and other crisis moments.

[Indy Texas]

Send House members to congress from the Memphis- and Nashville-based districts.

Serve as an avenue for various lawyers and bureaucrats to get federal jobs when a Democrat is president, much as the Republican Party did in most Southern states prior to the 1960s.

[Badger]

Start from the bottom.  Focus on building up resources in the big 4 cities (Chatanooga, Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville), especially Nashville.  Try to find candidates that are pro-life, maybe pro gun (because those are the issues that drive Republicans from the Democratic Party). 

It'll take a while, but Tennessee will become competitive sooner than Arkansas or Alabama.

This. Until those four counties, particularly Chattanooga and Knoxville, are as reliably Democratic as Memphis and Nashville, there isn't much hope. Then one needs to hope that the suburbs starts a trend democratic in the way they do in northern states or even Virginia and to a lesser degree North Carolina. However, Southern Suburban nights tend to be much more of the mega church attending social conservatives t h a n Northern suburbanites.

Until one can build up a reasonable bass and all four of those cities, Plus show at least competitive strength in the suburbs, along with what little there exists of a real black belt, Democrats at best might get lucky Illinois governor's race in a David Vitter versus JBE type of situation.

[Smash255]

Nashville will continue to become more Democratic and suburbs like Williamson will trend Democratic (though still be heavily Republican), however it is not going to be anywhere near enough outside of out of the ordinary circumstances

The only realistic chance is either a very unpopular Incumbent Governor and/or Scandal plagued Incumbent/ Candidate.

[KaiserDave]

Import Californians or wait for a Republican governor to screw up the state so badly that they can come back a la Laura Kelly and KS Dems.

KS going D also took a very polarizing and controversial GOP nominee.

Yes, that's what I mean. For instance, GOP x is elected Governor, and screws up the state so badly, like Kansas, and then a polarizing and unpopular GOP y is up against moderate Dem b, who can win.