Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 11, 2019, 03:23:18 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Austere Religious Scholar)
  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 51 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 60106 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 12, 2019, 12:39:48 pm »
« edited: September 17, 2019, 02:12:36 pm by Velasco »

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders began today and tomorrow the budget plan of the Pedro Sánchez government is likely to be rejected. Recently the talks between central government and the Catalan administration were broken and the right wing parties called a mass rally in Madrid in the wake of a political storm. These events mark the end of the legislative period. Rumours point to general elections in April (either 14 or 28) and the May 26 'Super Sunday' is still a possibility.

The old Spanish elections and politics thread has reached 93 pages and I think it's time to start a new one.

El País: "Impassioned opening arguments at Catalan separatists’ trial in Madrid"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/12/inenglish/1549985125_369586.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

TV3/Catalunya Radio: "The keys of the Catalan independence trial" (link provided by tack 50)

https://www.ccma.cat/324/keys-catalan-independence-trial/
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2019, 12:51:03 pm »

I'll repost a couple of general election maps. They show results by province (Congress of Deputies) with circles representing the most populous municipalities

2015 general election

Image Link

2016 general election

Image Link
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,729
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2019, 04:32:33 pm »

Election call tomorrow for April 14 or 28.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,305
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2019, 04:50:01 pm »

Will the Senate be up for election in a snap election?  I can see PSOE doing well in the Senate election at least even if PP+C+VOX majority seems likely in the Lower House.
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,797
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2019, 04:54:12 pm »

  So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,397
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2019, 06:56:48 pm »

  So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?

That might be the target after all if Rivera finds his marbles and blocks the tripartite Right coalition.

On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,499
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2019, 07:50:12 pm »
« Edited: May 02, 2019, 01:58:11 pm by tack50 »

Will the Senate be up for election in a snap election?  I can see PSOE doing well in the Senate election at least even if PP+C+VOX majority seems likely in the Lower House.

In theory not necesarily, Sanchez could legally call an election only for Congress.

In practice, it would certainly be for both, there is no reason to separate them.

And yes I also could see PSOE doing well in the Senate. Worth noting that article 155 (direct rule) is paseed by the Senate and not Congress so theoretically PSOE coule block it if PP/Cs/Vox attempt to pass it

 So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?

It's unclear, another possible date is the 26th of May alongside the EU (and local) elections.

However most of the PSOE leadership don't want this in order not to contaminate their local campaigns with national issues

Edit: Blatantly hijacking this post in the first page several months later to add a link to the previous thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=205125.0
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,768


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2019, 08:52:29 pm »


On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.

Maybe others can chime in here, but I get the feeling that the C's hierarchy of governments is:

Anything with C's leading
PP+C's
PSOE+C's
PP+C's+VOX







Anything with Podemos(or Podemos allies) or separatists

We didn't really get to see any theoretical government besides the PP+C's+VOX in Andalusia, but I suspect that was because of Mathematical reasons over anything else. With that in mind, the C's decision process post election is probably going to depend on math rather then anything else. Who will have the numbers: PSOE, or PP+VOX?

So they can sell this to their Catalan electorate by saying  "it was the mathematical option, PSOE+C's lacked majority." If PSOE+C's has a majority, then A C's red line will be a Harsh Catalan policy. This satisfies both sides of their Catalan coalition - the hard Spanish nats and the former PSOEs. If not, then they can say "PSOE won't do whats right for Spain and Catalonia, so we went with PP+VOX."
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2019, 06:14:42 am »

The government is headed for defeat in Congress over 2019 budget

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/13/inenglish/1550045962_704191.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The finance minister performed well yesterday against the right wing opposition and the Catalan separatists. Talking in socio-economic terms, the budget includes a rise in the minimum wage to 900 Euros and more investment in Catalonia (the region has a deficit in transport infrastructure, among other things). Also, strategic reasons would have made advisable that Catalan nationalists support the budget plan. However, they are at odds with strategy.

The trial left a meaningful picture showing the division within the independence movement.

Catalan premier Quim Torra greets the defendants. Most of them turn their heads, except ERC leader Oriol Junqueras and former regional ministers Santi Vila (formerly PDeCAT) and Carles Mundó (ERC). The expression of Junqueras (down right in the picture) and Vila (in front of the woman in red) is very eloquent.

The political debate is totally focused in Catalonia. The national and the international context favour the Triple Alliance.

Celeste-Tel poll for eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/constante-Vox-mantiene-derechas-opciones_0_867213569.html

PSOE 23.7%
PP 23.1%
Cs 19.2%
UP and allies 15.8%
VOX 8.9%
ERC 2.8%
PDeCAT 1.7%
EAJ-PNV 1.2%

Correlation similar to Andalusia. Right wing majority (PP, Cs and VOX). I'd bet that VOX is a couple of percentage points higher at the expense of PP.
 

Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,305
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2019, 07:00:13 am »

Spanish Parliament Blocks 2019 Budget Bill
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2019, 07:01:49 am »
« Edited: February 13, 2019, 07:05:42 am by Velasco »

 So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?

That might be the target after all if Rivera finds his marbles and blocks the tripartite Right coalition.

On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.

This question has no easy answer, because vote dynamics in Catalonia are extremely complex. The electoral behaviour of the non-nationalist half of Catalonia is particularly volatile. The Catalan electorate votes in different ways, depending on the type of election. Cs performed very strongly in the 2015 and 2017 regional elections, getting 17.9% and 25.3% of the vote (second and first place, respectively). However, the Cs performance in the 2015 and 2016 general elections was somewhat disappointing: 13% in 2015 (5th place) and 10.9% in 2016 (6th). The leading coalition in both general elections was En Comú Podem. Most of the ECP support came from the metropolitan strongholds traditionally voting for the socialists, but it's very likely that ECP caught some nationalist vote as well. Most of the Cs support in regional elections came from the same metropolitan municipalities, as well it caught many PP voters (Cs performance in some affluent neighbourhoods in Barcelona was quite impressive). On the other hand, the VOX rise might hurt Cs to some extent. Catalonia is not the best place for VOX on paper, but I heard there are some polls saying that VOX might step into the city hall winning some councilors in Barcelona...
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,363
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2019, 02:21:01 pm »



That's tomorrow. I'm excited.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2019, 04:10:49 pm »

Everybody is saying that elections will be on April 28.

Pedro Sánchez will make an announcement tomorrow morning (10:00 CET)
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,305
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2019, 04:24:09 pm »

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2019, 05:02:14 pm »

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

A Cs spokesman has said already that deals with Pedro Sánchez are not on the table.  Oranges claim that Sánchez is a radical who has betrayed the country. It's the same mantra of Casado: Sánchez is sold to populists, separatists and friends of ETA. It's a complete nonsense, but right wing voters buy this message. Moderate and centrist voters could be different. It's clear that PP, Cs and VOX will arrange a government deal if they have the numbers. The socialists will try to exploit the picture of Casado (PP),  Rivera (Cs) and Abascal (VOX) together in the Colón square past Sunday. That's what I call the (reactionary) Triple Alliance. Once the government broke talks with separatists, socialists hope to mobilize voters contrary or reluctant over talks policy as well as moderate voters fearful of the VOX radicalism.

Anyway I think it's not going to be easy to mobilize left wing voters, on the fear of the Triple Alliance, and reverse the right wing drive. The electoral behaviour of left wing voters is different from the right wing ones. They need some illusion and a strong motivation to turn out in great numbers, while the right eing voters are more practical (their aim is to preserve the status quo). Right now average polling is PSOE 24%, PP 21%, Cs 18%, UP 15%, VOX 11%
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,768


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2019, 09:30:13 pm »

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

A Cs spokesman has said already that deals with Pedro Sánchez are not on the table.  Oranges claim that Sánchez is a radical who has betrayed the country. It's the same mantra of Casado: Sánchez is sold to populists, separatists and friends of ETA. It's a complete nonsense, but right wing voters buy this message. Moderate and centrist voters could be different. It's clear that PP, Cs and VOX will arrange a government deal if they have the numbers. The socialists will try to exploit the picture of Casado (PP),  Rivera (Cs) and Abascal (VOX) together in the Colón square past Sunday. That's what I call the (reactionary) Triple Alliance. Once the government broke talks with separatists, socialists hope to mobilize voters contrary or reluctant over talks policy as well as moderate voters fearful of the VOX radicalism.

Anyway I think it's not going to be easy to mobilize left wing voters, on the fear of the Triple Alliance, and reverse the right wing drive. The electoral behaviour of left wing voters is different from the right wing ones. They need some illusion and a strong motivation to turn out in great numbers, while the right eing voters are more practical (their aim is to preserve the status quo). Right now average polling is PSOE 24%, PP 21%, Cs 18%, UP 15%, VOX 11%

That's politiking: C's realize that VOX is a danger to the third leg of the weird coalition of Macron-style Liberals, Classical Liberals, and Hard-Right Nationalists. I suspect they might be singing a different tune if C's and PSOE have the numbers (they don't right now) and Sanchez offers a big compromise to C's like Article 155.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,499
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2019, 04:42:09 am »

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/15/actualidad/1550216540_890788.html

Pedri Sanchez has finally called the election for the 28th of April
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2019, 06:02:45 am »
« Edited: February 15, 2019, 01:20:47 pm by Velasco »

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

A Cs spokesman has said already that deals with Pedro Sánchez are not on the table.  Oranges claim that Sánchez is a radical who has betrayed the country. It's the same mantra of Casado: Sánchez is sold to populists, separatists and friends of ETA. It's a complete nonsense, but right wing voters buy this message. Moderate and centrist voters could be different. It's clear that PP, Cs and VOX will arrange a government deal if they have the numbers. The socialists will try to exploit the picture of Casado (PP),  Rivera (Cs) and Abascal (VOX) together in the Colón square past Sunday. That's what I call the (reactionary) Triple Alliance. Once the government broke talks with separatists, socialists hope to mobilize voters contrary or reluctant over talks policy as well as moderate voters fearful of the VOX radicalism.

Anyway I think it's not going to be easy to mobilize left wing voters, on the fear of the Triple Alliance, and reverse the right wing drive. The electoral behaviour of left wing voters is different from the right wing ones. They need some illusion and a strong motivation to turn out in great numbers, while the right eing voters are more practical (their aim is to preserve the status quo). Right now average polling is PSOE 24%, PP 21%, Cs 18%, UP 15%, VOX 11%

That's politiking: C's realize that VOX is a danger to the third leg of the weird coalition of Macron-style Liberals, Classical Liberals, and Hard-Right Nationalists. I suspect they might be singing a different tune if C's and PSOE have the numbers (they don't right now) and Sanchez offers a big compromise to C's like Article 155.

Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas was crystal clear yesterday: they won't make deals with the PSOE until Pedro Sánchez is replaced in leadership. Also, the visions of PSOE and Cs on the Catalan crisis are radically opposed: PSOE favours dialogue without concessions on self-determination, Cs seeks the implementation of a "harsh 155" in total coincidence with the PP (VOX would send the tanks too, I suspect). It's true that certain socialist 'barons' (regional leaders) have more coincidences with Cs and PP on Catalonia (recently there was a proclamation in the Extremadura regional assembly), but they are not all the PSOE and the leader is Sánchez.  Additionally the tone of Albert Rivera has been very harsh with Pedro Sánchez since the no confidence motion. I suspect there is some personal hatred. Rivera is very ambitious (Sánchez too) and possibly he saw himself as the saviour of Spain after replacing Mariano Rajoy as PM. The bold move of Pedro Sánchez in late May disrupted his dreams of glory. On the other hand, Rivera is not Macron.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,499
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2019, 01:40:00 pm »

Worth noting that today 3 "new" parties announced their intention to run alone and not in coalitions:

-New Canaries (NCa). A centre-left Canarian nationalist party. Strong in the eastern province of Las Palmas but weak in the western province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. They contested the 2016 election alongside PSOE and got 1 senator and 1 MP. While that Senator is pretty much gone, they should be able to hold their MP, but it will be close.

-Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC): A centrist, progressive and somewhat populist Cantabria regionalist party, led by Premier Miguel Ángel Revilla. They rarely contest national elections but apparently this time they will. They should be able to easily get 1 seat, but nothing else.

-Actúa:
: An IU splinter mostly; led by former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares and former judge Baltasar Garzón. Unlike the other 2, this one seems unlikely to get any seats but we shall see.

All 3 are very good parties in my (biased) opinion, but we shall see.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2019, 04:17:27 pm »

Pedro Sánchez calls snap election for April 28

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550218263_541173.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

ERC leader and former deputy premier Oriol Junqueras claims to be a political prisoner

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/14/inenglish/1550154512_860484.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oriol Junqueras procalimed his love for Spain and for the Spanish peoples and culture. He also stated to be happy to speak in Spanish in the trial, because it gave him the opportunity to be heard by all Spaniards. Defendants were given the possibility to speak in Catalan, although there is no simultaneous translation and testimonies would be translated afterwards.

A key factor in the trial is to determine wether violence was employed or encouraged by independence leaders, because violence is an essential requirement to be found guilty of rebellion. The maximum penalty for rebellion is 25 years, much higher than the penalty for disobedience.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Joaquim Forn took the stand afterwards. Forn was the member of the Catalan government in charge of regional police (the equivalent of the Interior minister). He took questions from the public prosecutor and provided documentation showing the orders he gave to the Mossos de Esquadra (regional police) on October 1, 2017 (the date of the informal referendum). I'd say this strategy of defence was more effective than the previous political speech of Junqueras. The presiding judge Manuel Marchena rebuked th prosecutor's insistence to repeat the same questions to Joaquim Forn, in order to get the desired answer. Furthermore, judge Marchena didn't allow the Vox lawyers who reoresent the private prosecution to make their questions, once the defendants refused to take them. Marchena is regarded as a conservative leaning judge, as well as a smart one. Marchena is showing very scrupulous with procedural guarantees, because he is fully aware this trial is getting a lot of attention worldwide. Also, the defences have stated the will appeal before the Strasbourg Court in case their defendants are not acquitted of all charges. It is very important for the court to ensure the due process guarantees.

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2019, 04:49:17 pm »

Worth noting that today 3 "new" parties announced their intention to run alone and not in coalitions:

-New Canaries (NCa). A centre-left Canarian nationalist party. Strong in the eastern province of Las Palmas but weak in the western province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. They contested the 2016 election alongside PSOE and got 1 senator and 1 MP. While that Senator is pretty much gone, they should be able to hold their MP, but it will be close.

-Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC): A centrist, progressive and somewhat populist Cantabria regionalist party, led by Premier Miguel Ángel Revilla. They rarely contest national elections but apparently this time they will. They should be able to easily get 1 seat, but nothing else.

-Actúa:
: An IU splinter mostly; led by former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares and former judge Baltasar Garzón. Unlike the other 2, this one seems unlikely to get any seats but we shall see.

All 3 are very good parties in my (biased) opinion, but we shall see.

Sorry, but I don't think that New Canaries or the Cantabria regionalists have many chances of winning seats. These parties perform much better in regional elections.

PRC ran unsuccessfully in the 2011 general elections, getting 12.5% (around 44k votes). That time the Cantabria Regionalist Party came close, but this time there is a lot of competence. PP, PSOE, Cs, Podemos and Vox will be running too and the province only has 5 seats.

The results of NC in Las Palmas province, either running in its own or in a joint list with the Canary Coalition (CC), have been rather poor in previous elections. NC (in coalition with CCN) got 7.5% in 2008 and no seats, while the NC-CC-PNC joint list got 11.3% in 2011 and 1 seat. Unless NC runs with CC again, the chances are slim because regionalist vote will be splitted.

I concur the electoral chances of Actúa are virtually zero. The party of Gaspar Llamazares and Baltasar Garzón was rejected by Más Madrid at regional level. The platform led by Íñigo Errejón seeks to ally with Podemos, IU and Equo. Llamazares has been always hostile to Podemos and he is a figure of the past, with little electoral appeal outside his Asturias home turf.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2019, 05:43:30 am »
« Edited: February 16, 2019, 08:52:58 am by Velasco »

Despite the great fragmentation of the electoral space, Spain faces the next election confronted to a binary choice: the Left or the Triple Alliance. The crisis in Podemos and the breaking of the alliance with the Catalan nationalists have weakened the block led by Pedro Sánchez, despite the PSOE is leading in the polls. On the opposite side, the triple alliance (PP, Cs and VOX) has many chances of winning a majority according to the polls. Cs leader Albert Rivera rejects categorically an alliance with Pedro Sánchez (he says the PSOE is not constitutionalist, while remains in silence when asked about Vox) and deliberately opts for the right wing alliance that governs in Andalusia with the support of the far right. Pedro Sánchez started campaigning yesterday placing himself in front of the right wing alliance of Colón Square. In the picture below you can spot Santiago Abascal (Vox), Pablo Casado (PP) and Albert Rivera (Cs)


NYT: "Yet Another Election for Spain Reveals Deeper Strains"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/world/europe/spain-snap-election.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Evolution of the vote since the 1977 elections

Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,499
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2019, 07:05:04 am »

Worth noting that today 3 "new" parties announced their intention to run alone and not in coalitions:


Sorry, but I don't think that New Canaries or the Cantabria regionalists have many chances of winning seats. These parties perform much better in regional elections.

PRC ran unsuccessfully in the 2011 general elections, getting 12.5% (around 44k votes). That time the Cantabria Regionalist Party came close, but this time there is a lot of competence. PP, PSOE, Cs, Podemos and Vox will be running too and the province only has 5 seats.

The results of NC in Las Palmas province, either running in its own or in a joint list with the Canary Coalition (CC), have been rather poor in previous elections. NC (in coalition with CCN) got 7.5% in 2008 and no seats, while the NC-CC-PNC joint list got 11.3% in 2011 and 1 seat. Unless NC runs with CC again, the chances are slim because regionalist vote will be splitted.

I concur the electoral chances of Actúa are virtually zero. The party of Gaspar Llamazares and Baltasar Garzón was rejected by Más Madrid at regional level. The platform led by Íñigo Errejón seeks to ally with Podemos, IU and Equo. Llamazares has been always hostile to Podemos and he is a figure of the past, with little electoral appeal outside his Asturias home turf.

I'm a lot more optimistic about those 2.

Because of how D'Hondt works, PRC would need to come in 5th at worst, and get more than half of what the 1st place finisher gets. That's probably somewhere around 13-15% (depending on how much you think PP will fall), which doesn't seem unreachable to me. Revilla is popular and he has a legit shot. His seat would probably come off Podemos' seat. (1-1-1-1-1 split)

Similarly, NC managed to get 7% in 2008; back when they were a lot less popular (at the time they didn't even have regional representation, falling below the threshold in the 2007 regionals!).

I could see NC getting 10% and 1 seat. Pedro Quevedo has also been a high profile MP for the most part. CC is small enough to ignore; they got 3% and I imagine at least a handful of those might move to NC if they have a chance (while CC doesn't).
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,623
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2019, 02:28:49 pm »

GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 27.4% 115-117 seats
PP 19.9% 75-77 seats
CS 14.5% 44-47 seats
UP 13.6% 36-39 seats
VOX 13% 43-46 seats

ERC 16-17 seats
PDeCAT 2-3 seats
Others 8-10 seats
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
*
Posts: 40
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2019, 03:15:20 pm »

GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 27.4% 115-117 seats
PP 19.9% 75-77 seats
CS 14.5% 44-47 seats
UP 13.6% 36-39 seats
VOX 13% 43-46 seats

ERC 16-17 seats
PDeCAT 2-3 seats
Others 8-10 seats

lol cs 14.5% that poll is manipulated
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 51 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC