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  Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019
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Author Topic: Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019  (Read 38549 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1100 on: April 16, 2019, 05:14:13 pm »


All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.

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The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with  non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.

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Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.

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Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.

Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.

Your numbers seem to forget the Negev Bedouin. By 2045, there will likely be as many as 840,000 Negev Bedouin, as their population doubles every 14-15 years.

Probably, I was mainly concerned with Jews.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1101 on: April 18, 2019, 10:18:19 am »

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1102 on: April 18, 2019, 10:47:13 am »

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Someone pointed out a while back, that Israeli secular Jews have the highest birth rate of any secular group. Israel has a birth rate of about 3.1 kids/woman, but there aren't enough Muslims/religious Jews for the birth rate to be that high, unless secular Jews have kids at a higher rate than than Western 'nones' do.

I agree that the number sounds too high, but it isn't that much of a stretch to think that a much larger portion of secular Jews are having three kids than their secular counterparts in Canada or the UK.
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respect mah majoritah!
SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #1103 on: April 18, 2019, 11:15:15 pm »

Seems like Liberman is saying that he is willing to force a new election if his draft bill doesn't get passed?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1104 on: April 19, 2019, 03:24:00 am »

Seems like Liberman is saying that he is willing to force a new election if his draft bill doesn't get passed?

Liberman's party slogan is "milah zo milah," or what in English we would say, "our word is our promise." That's ironic because Liberman is quite famous for sacrificing literally everything his party stands for just to remain in power. His resignation from government last year wasn't viewed as a stand on principle but a recognition that he would be unable to credibly remain defense minister. He always rants and raves about the Haredim but hardly ever actually does something to meaningfully resist their deeply unpopular role in government. It's ironic because it's the one issue in which Israelis love him, and yet it's the one issue where he fails to ever make a difference. So I think the assumption is that Liberman is just trying to find a face-saving way to fold to the Haredim. Most likely it will involve just postponing the draft law until Bibi is formally indicted this year and new elections are brought about anyway.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1105 on: May 15, 2019, 03:19:52 am »

An update as coalition negotiations are nearing their end...

Both Liberman and the Haredim continue to threaten to force new elections if they don't get their way with regards to the draft law. Netanyahu asked for and received a two week extension for negotiations, after which he will lose his shot at forming a government. Likud officials have circled a rumor that Liberman and Kahlon, who decided not to merge his Kulanu party with the Likud, may be coordinating to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government. Naturally, Liberman denies this and insists that he just wants to implement the already-agreed  draft law agreement that the Haredim now oppose, and that he wants more guarantees from Netanyahu on security issues.

For his part Netanyahu seems to be set to make existentially massive changes to judicial law, ostensibly taking away the Supreme Court's power of judicial review, which would help reinstate the death penalty and allow the expulsion of refugees. It would also allow the Knesset to pass an immunity law that would shield Bibi from prosecution. These are all top legislative priorities for the right.

It seems unlikely that Liberman or Kahlon would be particularly bothered by any of Netanyahu's fascism, and indeed they are likely to support it. The problem is that they share Israelis' general disgust with the Haredi parties and also with Bibi himself. Virtually everyone in Israel, except the small settler and Haredi minorities, would be happier with a national unity government led by Gideon Saar. The question is whether Liberman and Kahlon are willing to risk new elections to get that, especially when they barely slipped over the threshold in March and may not get over next time.

My hunch is that the Haredim blink first, Liberman gets something very close to his draft law, and a very narrow right wing-theocratic majority quickly goes about rewriting the Basic Law. Obviously nobody knows where this will end up, but it certainly represents the most serious political crisis the country has ever experienced.

Gideon Saar has already established himself as a very non-conforming voice in the Likud (bashing Bibi's Gaza policy, defending his daughter's romantic relationship with an Arab, which amazingly must still be defended in 2019 in this country). So he may have a few tricks up his sleeve.

So new elections seems unlikely to me, but there are very politically credible ways of getting to them if Liberman and Kahlon (and Saar) want to go all Braveheart about this. That's literally been the opposite of how Kahlon and Lieberman typically work, so I'm skeptical.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1106 on: May 16, 2019, 04:24:29 pm »



That's a crisis waiting to happen.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1107 on: May 17, 2019, 11:26:43 pm »

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

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Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Maybe. Calculating those numbers out gets you to rather more than the normally reported birthrate for all the groups, though it might be that they're sampling only individuals who are older 40, and I think the normal birthrates sample everybody over some age in the teens; finished fertility will always be higher than actual.

Regardless, yes, Israeli Hilonim are the most fertile secular population in the developed world. In contrast to Haredim (but, if I remember correctly, not in contrast to the other religious groups), they have also been getting more fertile since about the turn of the century, when they actually did briefly dip below replacement. This is something that starts standing out if you read about prominent Israelis -- an incredibly disproportionate number of them have, like, a mid-single digits number of children. There's a deeply natal culture.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1108 on: May 18, 2019, 01:17:15 am »

Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.

Img


Huh? 50% of secular Jews in Israel are having 3-6 children?

Maybe. Calculating those numbers out gets you to rather more than the normally reported birthrate for all the groups, though it might be that they're sampling only individuals who are older 40, and I think the normal birthrates sample everybody over some age in the teens; finished fertility will always be higher than actual.

Regardless, yes, Israeli Hilonim are the most fertile secular population in the developed world. In contrast to Haredim (but, if I remember correctly, not in contrast to the other religious groups), they have also been getting more fertile since about the turn of the century, when they actually did briefly dip below replacement. This is something that starts standing out if you read about prominent Israelis -- an incredibly disproportionate number of them have, like, a mid-single digits number of children. There's a deeply natal culture.

I wouldn't exaggerate the secular birthrate too much. It's right at replacement level, which is where it is in some of the more fertile Western countries like Ireland, France, Britain, and until recently the United States. That's a bit better than much if Europe, but without the Arab and Haredi birthrates I think Israeli demographics would he fairly similar to Europe or North America. Israel definitely does have a more natalistic culture, when the country is taken as a while, but in places like Tel Aviv and Haifa it really doesn't exist.

Most secular couples have between 1 and 3 kids, and the statistic that half of them have more than 3 seems highly unlikely.
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