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  Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)  (Read 10932 times)
Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #325 on: Today at 10:37:46 am »

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #326 on: Today at 10:40:37 am »

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #327 on: Today at 10:45:23 am »

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #328 on: Today at 11:04:18 am »

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

He's backed himself into a corner, though. Anything short of firing Kicki would have horrible optics.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #329 on: Today at 11:06:11 am »

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #330 on: Today at 11:37:33 am »
« Edited: Today at 11:40:51 am by Tender Branson »

Kurz just announced that he will kick out Kickl from the cabinet and has already told him so at a recent meeting.

Kurz has also talked with President VdB (because it is the President who ultimately needs to fire a cabinet member after the Chancellor declares so).

Kurz now expects the FP to withdraw every cabinet member from the government, which he'll try to fill with independent experts for the next 6 months or so until the new government is formed.

Kurz: "The FP has destroyed our successful government work."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #331 on: Today at 11:44:33 am »

Even though the FP is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SP and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SP and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SP/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.
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bigic
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« Reply #332 on: Today at 12:00:33 pm »

- VP obviously won't back the no-confidence vote.
- SP, Neos, Jetzt and the two independents don't have enough votes.
- Still not enough if the SP is replaced by the FP.

-> If there are no defections, the majority for a non-confidence vote must include both SP and FP. And since these two parties have a majority, the votes of other parties are effectively irrelevant.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #333 on: Today at 12:12:52 pm »

Kurz explains the firing of Interior Minister Kickl with the fact that "it's impossible that he remains in charge of future investigations against his own party in Ibiza-Gate".
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urutzizu
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« Reply #334 on: Today at 12:13:17 pm »
« Edited: Today at 12:50:21 pm by urutzizu »

What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

He could, but in practice he most likely would not. The Bundesprsident is on paper about as powerful as the french president, but in reality only very rarely interferes in day-to-day politics.
As for your second question, it is mostly a symbolic act to humiliate the goverment and to tie Kurz to the scandal.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #335 on: Today at 12:20:33 pm »

With the FP getting serious now to pull out all of their remaining 4 cabinet members + 1 state secretary (Strache and Kickl are already out), the best thing Kurz could do now is to find some kind of truce with the other opposition parties (the FP is now an opposition party again) and appoint independent experts who are let's say "SP-affiliated" (for the Health Ministry), or "Green-affiliated" (for the Infrastructure Ministry) and "NEOS-affiliated" (for the Interior Ministry) or something, to keep his options open for after the elections ...

Otherwise, Kurz may win the election big - but will face roadblocks in forming a new government.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #336 on: Today at 12:26:51 pm »

BREAKING NEWS:

All FP-cabinet members are leaving Kurz's VP-FP government, after Kurz said an hour ago that he will fire Interior Minister Kickl (FP).

The FP will also prepare their own no-confidence vote for Kurz, after the party "NOW" has already announced one.

Link

That was quick.
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #337 on: Today at 12:35:17 pm »

Take Out The Trash Day 2: Electric Kickloo
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tack50
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« Reply #338 on: Today at 12:48:19 pm »

Even though the FP is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SP and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SP and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SP/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.

Do no-confidence votes require an "alternative candidate" like in Spain or Germany? Or is it just a new election happening anyways?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #339 on: Today at 02:51:49 pm »

I guess SPO and Greens will abstain
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rob in cal
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« Reply #340 on: Today at 03:12:30 pm »

But what I'm still wondering about is whether Kurz actually would have let the FPO to name another FPO member as a new interior minister or whether there could be no new FPO interior minster because it would a conflict of intrest for the Ibiza investigation.
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #341 on: Today at 03:36:42 pm »

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.
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Omega21
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« Reply #342 on: Today at 03:43:31 pm »

As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

There's no reason why they would suffer, they bear no responsibility for something someone not in their party did before he held any Government office.

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile
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rob in cal
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« Reply #343 on: Today at 03:52:52 pm »

  As I see it one danger for the OVP is that unless they do really well in the elections, they will be scrambling to get a working coalition going after September, assuming Kurz doesn't want the SPO. I wonder about an OVP minority government in such a scenario.
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #344 on: Today at 04:13:49 pm »

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

That's not me.
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