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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez)  (Read 28173 times)
tack50
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« Reply #100 on: May 17, 2019, 08:41:14 am »

While Spain won't have a general election in a long time most likely; today we got our first general election poll

Simple lógica poll

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While I'd love this to be the case, with PSOE skyrocketing and Vox going down in flames, I seriously doubt this will happen.

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tack50
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« Reply #101 on: May 20, 2019, 09:43:47 am »

Actually, there have been a ton of polls reciently. I won't go over each and every one of them, but here is my summary by community of all polls published since the general election:

Aragon:
2/3 polls give a majority to the left; the remaining one (older) gives the majority to the right. All polls give a majority to PSOE-Cs-PAR, which could also happen as Lambán is one of the more conservative premiers in PSOE. Seems like Lambán was not Dead on Arrival after all, and is now a modest favourite to hold on for another 4 years

My rating: Lean PSOE

Asturias:
All polls give a majority to the left; a right wing majority would require a big polling miss and I don't think that's happening. Adrián Barbón (PSOE) will replace the incumbent PSOE premier Javier Fernández. No surprise in what's arguably Spain's most left wing community without a regional language.

My rating: Safe PSOE

Balearic Islands:
All polls give a majority to the left, though in some it's within the margin of error. However, even if the left loses its majority, PI is definitely not supporting a right wing government and especially not one propped up by Vox as well. Because of that reason, Francina Armengol (arguably Spain's most left wing premier), is a big favourite for reelection

My rating: Safe PSOE

Canary Islands
All polls give a majority to the left, though some within the margin of error. Again, if Vox makes it in (which is not a certainty by any means), a right wing government becomes a lot less likely as CC has ruled them out. While I would not rule out a PSOE-CC grand coalition, PSOE will very likely get the Canarian premiership 26 years later. However, ASG is rogue enough to screw things up but I think they'll go left this time.

My rating: Likely PSOE

Cantabria
All polls give a majority to the left and a rather broad one. Revilla is populist enough that he can take a lot of right wing voters in a right of center region. He will easily remain as premier; even if the right somehow got a majority I still wouldn't rule out PRC-Cs-PSOE (although that would be unlikely).

My rating: Safe PRC

Castille-Leon
All polls give a majority to the right, and within it a large lead for PP. If PP somehow manages to lose this, they are dead as a national party, full stop. The "culturally Castillian" community, very rural and with a very old population, those are all PP-leaning demographics. The CIS poll predicted a tie, but I don't trust that, though it will be much closer than it has been in ages.

My rating: Safe PP

Castille-La Mancha
All polls predict pretty much a tossup here in terms of left vs right. However, premier Emiliano García-Page is one of the more conservative premiers in Spain, and he is one of the few that could easily get a PSOE-Cs deal. That means that PSOE pretty much has the advantage.

My rating: Lean PSOE

Extremadura
All polls predict pretty much a tossup with an extremely narrow left advantage. Again however, Guillermo Fernández Vara is a conservative PSOE premier so he could also get away with PSOE-Cs. And that means he is favoured for another term

My rating: Lean PSOE

La Rioja
A sociologically similar community to Castille-Leon, but watered down; there should be no reason for PP to lose this. And yet polls are predicting a left wing advantage! While Madrid has seen all the attention for being the huge prize, in my opinion tiny La Rioja will be marquee race of the night and the one I would watch most closely. It's worth noting that this estimate assumes the regional PR+ supports PSOE and not PP. Which is the likeliest scenario, but it's not 100% inconcievable that PR+ supports PP or doesn't make it in.

My Rating: Tossup / Tilt PSOE

Madrid
The race everyone is watching most closely and has seen the most polling; both because of demographics (it is by far the largest community up for grabs) and because of polling which predicts Madrid is a tossup, with PSOE, PP and Cs all having a chance of getting the premiership. However that same polling predicts a tiny advantage for the right. That same polling has also found Cs trailing PP by a small but consistent amount. I will go with a bold prediction here, but I wouldn't be surprised if I got it wrong:

My rating: Lean PP

Murcia
All polls predict an easy right wing victory in Spain's most conservative region. Vox will also get its best results here. There is a possibility of PSOE-Cs, but Murcia's PSOE isn't exactly the most conservative so I don't think that will happen. Fernando López Miras (PP) will easily be reelected.

My rating: Safe PP

Navarra
Another region where polls are predicting a tossup, though the current 4 party government (GBai-Bildu-Podemos-IU) is a clear underdog and seems more likely than not that they will lose their majority. At that point, many possibilities open up, like NA+-PSOE (particularly if that means Sánchez gets 2 extra votes for him nationally) or GBai-PSOE-Podemos-IU (with PSOE or GBai leading). I think GBai is the

My rating: Pure tossup between PSOE, NA+ and Gbai
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tack50
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« Reply #102 on: May 20, 2019, 12:53:13 pm »

I don't think that UPN propping up Pedro Sánchez alongside Podemos and PNV is a serious possibility. Navarrese traditionalists have always sided with the Spanish Right at national level, regardless occasional cooperation between PSOE and UPN at regional level.

I don't think it's that unrealistic. I believe back on the Zapatero days, UPN propped up Zapatero's government by supporting his budgets, and that's the reason for their split.

An abstention in exchange for money for Navarra and giving NA+ the regional government would probably be a fair deal, especially if a PSOE-led government in Navarra is not a possibility or would require Bildu support.
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tack50
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« Reply #103 on: May 26, 2019, 09:27:14 am »

Turnout at 14:00 was 35.2%; almost exactly the same as in 2015 (34.8%), though much lower than the general election turnout (and higher than the EU election turnout in 2014 of course)

El Diario has a map with the turnout increase/decrease since 2015

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-datos-participacion-municipales-municipio_0_903260057.html

So overall we can't really read much into the turnout reports, if at all
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tack50
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« Reply #104 on: May 26, 2019, 06:05:10 pm »

Ok, with all the data we have in here are the communities where I would argue we need to watch future alliances.

Castille-Leon: PP-Cs have a majority (without Vox) but PSOE topped the poll. It's not inconcievable that Cs goes with PSOE, but it's very unlikely. Still it's a possibility worth watching

Aragon: The combined right (PP-Cs-Vox-PAR) has a narrow majority but PAR is a right-regionalist party which might not be happy doing deals with Vox. If there's a community where a PSOE-Cs deal will happen, it's here.

Canary Islands: In pure Thanos fashion, the islands gave a tied result between the right and left (again, as 2015 already saw a perfect tie). However this time PSOE beats CC both in terms of seats and the popular vote. Common wisdom would assume a PSOE-CC deal with a PSOE but relations between the 2 are quite damaged. Another scenario is the left-insularist ASG propping up a CC-PP-Cs government. Truly bad result in my home region Sad

Worth noting only 73% of the vote is in here, so this could change

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway

Eh, I'd call it already for the right.

Madrid seems to have a left counting bias for some reason (with left wing areas counting earlier), and PP-Cs-Vox already have a majority. It's pretty much over.

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tack50
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« Reply #105 on: May 26, 2019, 06:24:21 pm »

Well, after the Andalusian elections and especially after the general elections I had been predicting some sort of "realignment" where PSOE would collapse in the South (though might have held through deals with Cs) while winning landslides in peripheral Spain and getting nice results in Madrid and the north.

Apparently that hasn't happened and they have overall majorities in Castille-La Mancha and Extremadura lol

Not only that, but these are the first PSOE overall majorities anywhere since 2007!
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tack50
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« Reply #106 on: May 30, 2019, 10:19:31 am »

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?

Well, I've long defended that if we are to assume that a left wing PSOE-UP government of some sort is going to happen, the kingmakers are UPN/NA+, CC and/or the secessionists. Navarra and the Canary Islands held regional elections so let's look at them

In Navarra, PSOE has a tough choice to make. Either they can abstain and allow a UPN minority government, or they can rule themselves with the abstention of Bildu and support from everyone else. Both options might be good though, though the latter seems better as it might convince Bildu to abstain nationally as well, which would be easier I guess.

PNV is also saying that they won't support PSOE nationally unless they go with a progressive government in Navarra (ie, one led by PSOE and supported by GBai and Podemos and IU). I don't think PNV is hardline enough to actually vote down a Sánchez government unless it's clear it's failing, but that's what they claim.

On that note, it was widely expected that ERC and Bildu would form a joint parliamentary group in Congress after the election. However, that seems to have been dropped. That means that it's possible that ERC abstains and Bildu votes against (or viceversa). Their votes won't be as linked, though it's still very likely that they'll vote together in most stuff.

Meanwhile the Canarian election ended in a clusterf*** with the tiny Gomera Socialist Group (an insular party) as kingmaker having to decide between a left wing PSOE-UP-NCa coalition or a right wing CC-PP-Cs one. Either that or a PSOE-CC grand coalition.

Or at least that's what it seemed in paper. After the election, both PSOE and PP seem to be seriously considering the possibility of a PSOE-PP coalition!

Remember Spain has absolutely no tradition of grand coalitions or PSOE-PP alliances, with the only example at the regional level being the Basque Country in 2009 (which isn't exactly a role model as Clavijo is not Ibarretxe and CC is not 2009's PNV, who was actively pushing for secession!)

CC similarly is rejecting any notion of supporting Sánchez nationally, not even with a minority PSOE government (as opposed to a proper PSOE-UP coalition)

As of now I think the most likely scenario is still a left wing coalition, but if PSOE-PP really go for it it would be unprecedented.

At the national level I believe the likeliest scenario is a PSOE-UP deal of some sort with a Bildu and/or ERC abstention and both UPN and CC voting against.

Cs has also been softening to PSOE but I can't see them doing a coalition with Sánchez or abstaining
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tack50
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« Reply #107 on: May 30, 2019, 10:40:12 am »

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!

Hopefully the next election will be in 4 years. Negotiations in parliament will be terribly complicated, but I think Sánchez will last more than 2 years.

I fully expect an election to happen in late 2022 at the latest. I can't see Sánchez wanting a general election so close to the regional/local elections of 2023 again.

Granted, that's still 3 and a half years from now, but still not the full 4 years
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tack50
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« Reply #108 on: June 02, 2019, 01:45:13 pm »
« Edited: June 02, 2019, 01:59:33 pm by tack50 »

First post-regional elections poll.

PSOE: 34%
PP: 15%
Cs: 15%
UP: 13%
Vox: 8%

Other than the fact that PP is actually up and not down imo and that I don't think PSOE has gone up that much (though they did get 33% in the EU elections I guess), it seems fairly believable.

Also, under these numbers PSOE+UP get an overall majority without needing anyone else.
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tack50
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« Reply #109 on: June 02, 2019, 07:25:04 pm »

First post-regional elections poll.

PSOE: 34%
PP: 15%
Cs: 15%
UP: 13%
Vox: 8%

Other than the fact that PP is actually up and not down imo and that I don't think PSOE has gone up that much (though they did get 33% in the EU elections I guess), it seems fairly believable.

Also, under these numbers PSOE+UP get an overall majority without needing anyone else.

Could Sanchez call another election so he won't have to rely on the hated separatists, or would that risk inducing election fatigue?

Most likely it would see election fatigue. I can't see Sánchez risking an early election, he will do everything in his power to be elected right now.

I would not rule out an election in 2 years time or so though, if the secessionists still refuse to pass his budgets.
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tack50
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« Reply #110 on: June 05, 2019, 07:23:56 am »

Certainly an interesting map. Colau seems to have her vote more evenly spread out compared to ERC, Cs (who won the rich "Upper Diagonal") or PSC (which a concentrated vote in Nou Barris.

In more news: Pablo Iglesias has fired Pablo Echenique as Podemos' head of organization. He himself is not resigning of course. I wonder if Iglesias clinging on to Podemos might lead to UPyD syndrome (with Iglesias sinking the party). Of course even now Podemos is larger than UPyD ever was but still.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/06/04/5cf6d1f821efa01f208b45a2.html

Also, UPN seems open to negotiating an abstention with Sánchez in exchange for Pamplona's mayorship and the regional government. PSOE now has a tough choice to make. If they take the offer, any chances of getting Bildu support inmediately evaporate and even PNV support would not be certain. While I still believe PNV will backtrack, they have said they won't support Sánchez if he props up UPN in Navarra. I most certainly can't imagine PNV of all people forcing a second election.

As for the other party that may prop up Sánchez (CC), that isn't happening.

Today were the king's consultations with parties, which will go on this afternoon and tomorrow as well. ERC and Bildu declined to attend.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/06/05/5cf78c04fc6c833a328b4825.html
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tack50
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« Reply #111 on: June 10, 2019, 11:39:14 am »

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

Here is how mayors are elected in Spain:

1: Local Elections This already happened on the 26th of May. The electoral system is standard D'Hondt with a 5% hurdle and we all know the results.

2: First Council Meeting: At the first council meeting, all heads from each party with representation in the town council are automatically candidates for mayor unless they drop out.

3: Mayor vote: An overall majority (50%+1) of Councillors is needed to elect a mayor. There is only a single round of voting.

4: Failsafe: If no one candidate gets 50%+1 of Councillors, the head of the party which got the most votes is automatically elected as mayor

5: No Confidence votes: At any point during the 4 year term a no confidence vote can be introduced against the mayor. If 50%+1 of Councillors agree, the mayor is replaced. I believe this is capped to a single successful no confidence vote for the entire 4 year term but don't quote me on that.

So it's pretty much like a small scale version of the national parliament.

Last term (2015-2019), some high profile no confidence votes/party control switches include Badalona for example (town in the Barcelona suburbs, used to have a CUP mayor until PSC stopped supporting it and a PP+PSC brought a PSC mayor even if PP was larger).

If the mayor resigns at any point, this process is also used.
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tack50
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« Reply #112 on: June 16, 2019, 06:26:23 am »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 06:33:32 am by tack50 »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals

https://www.abc.es/media/espana/2019/06/16/ayntamientos-capitales-provincia-kO8E--1248x698@abc.jpg

Posting only the link in order to combat mods Tongue

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tack50
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« Reply #113 on: June 16, 2019, 08:57:36 am »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


Posting only the link in order to combat mods Tongue


How did IU win Zamora?

Back in 2015, Podemos did not run any candidates there, so IU worked as the default option for those voters. Not only that but the mayor ran a really good campaign and ended up winning.

The mayor turned out to be extremely popular and he won a landslide this year (getting an overall majority!) despite Zamora's partisanship. It also helps that Zamora is a small town of only 60 000 inhabitants, which makes "retail politics" easier.

Another extremely popular mayor who won a huge majority is PSOE in Vigo (a large Galician city, albeit not a provincial capital), who got 67% of the vote and 20/27 Councillors! (though Vigo is actually a left wing city, though he still won a massive landlide vastly overperforming PSOE's baseline)
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tack50
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« Reply #114 on: June 17, 2019, 06:53:16 am »

Apparently it's official, Manuel Valls and Cs are finally splitting. The reason being how Colau got elected mayor with the support of the Valls-linked independents against the will of Cs.

Their joint list got 6 Councillors in the last local election. 3 of them are independents with close ties to Valls (Valls himself; Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister under Zapaptero and Eva Parera, a former Senator for CiU).

The 3 "proper" Cs councillors will form their own group separate from the 3 Valls-linked independents. I wonder if a hypothetical Manuel Valls led party would gain any traction in Catalonia or if this is the end of Valls' political career (from PM of France to a splitter councillor in a Spanish town hall!)

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-ciudadanos-rompe-valls-barcelona-separa-tres-concejales-apoyo-colau-20190617133800.html
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