Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 12, 2019, 08:49:52 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Austere Religious Scholar)
  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 51 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 60708 times)
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,629
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1025 on: October 19, 2019, 04:43:47 am »

It seems obvious that the Catalan issue will be the defining one for the next GE.
Don't really know how it will affect the parties...will Vox rise to third place?
Will Cs recover some credibility?
Will Sanchez's handling of the crisis get him over the line without the Catalan parties - I guess they wouldn't happily support a PSOE-UP government right now...
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,633
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1026 on: October 19, 2019, 06:34:58 am »

Sanchéz strategy, IMO, seems to let the protests and violent clashes create a mood of frustration and anger in the Catalan society against the independence movements. If, in the past, sending more police to Barcelona didn't help, could the "let them burn strategy", and Torra's ridiculous flip-flop about the protests, turn many people in Catalonia against independence? 
Logged
bigic
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 304
Serbia and Montenegro
Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1027 on: October 20, 2019, 01:25:50 pm »

"Teruel Existe" might get in

Logged
El Betico
Rookie
*
Posts: 25
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1028 on: October 21, 2019, 06:15:59 pm »

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I don't expect next election to be resolutive.
Logged
ctrepublican512
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 83
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1029 on: October 25, 2019, 04:35:47 am »

From the polls I’ve seen...is it safe to assume C vote is going to PP and Vox is maintaining their 10% and change?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1030 on: October 26, 2019, 06:23:05 am »

I haven't been covering the election much or even paying much attention to be honest. Still, here are the campaign slogan from each of the parties in Congress right now that I could find. These seem to be pre-campaign slogans, so they will probably add a 2nd formal campaign slogan next weekend:

PSOE: Spain Now (España Ahora)
PP: For everything that unites us (Por todo lo que nos une)
Cs: Spain on the move (España en marcha)
Podemos: A government with you (Un gobierno contigo)
Vox: Spain forever (España siempre)

Notice Vox's campaign slogan is a direct attack to PSOE. Similarly, Cs seems to have gone full Macron lol.

I was unable to find the slogans from any of the nationalist and regional parties for some reason.

From the polls I’ve seen...is it safe to assume C vote is going to PP and Vox is maintaining their 10% and change?

Yeah, many former Cs voters seem to be going to PP for some reason. Meanwhile Vox isn't just maintaining their 10% but actually expanding on it a bit. In fact I would put them as slight favourites for being third.

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I
 don't expect next election to be resolutive.

The worst case scenario for the left (barring a PP-Cs-Vox win of course) is a scenario where ruling the country depends on JxCat and CUP. If that happens, Spain will get a third election or a grand coalition.

However I don't think a grand coalition is likely at all (or for that matter a PSOE minority propped up by PP abstaining). Either way, I agree this election won't be resolutive at all and the next parliament won't last for that long.

I wonder how long until politicians start advocating for a more majoritarian system. I have seen a Greece style bonus to the winner floated from time to time, which I personally dislike a lot. I've also seen 2 round systems or "automatic majority" systems floated, though usually for local elections only.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1031 on: October 26, 2019, 06:28:16 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2019, 06:35:14 am by tack50 »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)
Logged
ctrepublican512
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 83
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1032 on: October 28, 2019, 04:59:21 pm »

It would be insane for PP to not have Vox in a coalition if the votes are there at this point, correct?
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,778


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1033 on: October 28, 2019, 05:43:06 pm »

Man C's really blew it. First they try to reorient hard to the right, and lose their centrist voters. After realizing said voters were far more numerous then their elected politicians would suggest, the return to the center. But now they lose the nationalist-right wing of their party who jumped for the now appealing parties. Meanwhile the centrist type of voters won't come back because C's factional problems are now laid wide for all to see.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1034 on: October 28, 2019, 05:48:19 pm »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1035 on: October 28, 2019, 05:49:49 pm »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?

You can if you want I guess but most polls do put them separately I think. Anyways it's a small change, just add about 0.2-0.3% in the popular vote and 2 seats to the right in that case.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,368
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1036 on: October 29, 2019, 07:53:02 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 08:13:39 am by Skye »

Went out to buy bread, ended up finding PM Pedro Sánchez exiting a bar to deliver a speech:

Image Link

Apparently Sánchez came to town to campaign, since PSOE wants to capture Palencia's third deputy (the province only elects 3 deputies since it's so small), which they narrowly lost to C's in the previous election. The April results were these:

PSOE: 31.3 (1)
PP: 29.6 (1)
C's:15.9 (1)
VOX: 11.7
UP:9.2

Now, since Ciudadanos seems to have collapsed and the PP has recovered in the polls, I think it's more likely that the PP ends up winning that third seat. I'm not an expert though.
Logged
ctrepublican512
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 83
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1037 on: October 29, 2019, 03:05:31 pm »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 698
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1038 on: October 30, 2019, 03:31:04 am »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain

If this happens then I was wrong and Sanchez is a genius. Also, I might move to Spain. On the other hand, it's one poll.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1039 on: October 30, 2019, 03:40:06 am »

CIS polls are a meme at this point and should be discarded.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 698
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1040 on: October 30, 2019, 03:44:30 am »

CIS polls are a meme at this point and should be discarded.

I mean, I haven't requested a visa quite yet.
Logged
ctrepublican512
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 83
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1041 on: October 30, 2019, 10:27:59 am »

Spain, SyM Consulting poll:

PSOE-S&D: 27% (-2)
PP-EPP: 22% (+5)
VOX-ECR: 14% (+4)
Cs-RE: 10% (-6)
UP-LEFT: 10% (-4)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)

+/- vs. April 2019 election

Fieldwork: 26-27 October 2019
Sample size: 1,923
europeelects.eu/spain
Logged
El Betico
Rookie
*
Posts: 25
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1042 on: October 31, 2019, 07:24:44 pm »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain

Dream


Spain, SyM Consulting poll:

PSOE-S&D: 27% (-2)
PP-EPP: 22% (+5)
VOX-ECR: 14% (+4)
Cs-RE: 10% (-6)
UP-LEFT: 10% (-4)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)

+/- vs. April 2019 election

Fieldwork: 26-27 October 2019
Sample size: 1,923
europeelects.eu/spain

Nightmare
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1043 on: November 02, 2019, 07:23:55 am »

The election campaign has just started, and that means I am posting all the election posters. First of all, the posters from the national parties. The slogans are the same I posted earlier, so no reason to translate them again.

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

Image Link

To be honest they all look very similar and none are that appealing imo. I guess PSOE has the least bad one (horrible text placement though). Vox is also decent and MP goes with an interesting non-rectangular poster).

Meanwhile, here are the ones from the regional parties as well as translated slogans:

ERC: "We will come back stronger" https://ep01.epimg.net/ccaa/imagenes/2019/10/28/catalunya/1572268034_524107_1572268268_noticia_normal.jpg
JxCat: "For Catalonia, for independence, no steps backwards".
https://media.theobjective.com/2019/10/jxcat-hara-campana-con-presos-en-los-carteles-y-el-lema-ni-un-voto-atras.jpg
PNV: "Here PNV"
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/redimstd/1200/675/adjuntos/pnvNoticias/49488_imagen_0.jpg/eaj-pnv-activa-su-servicio-especial-de-comunicacio
Bildu: "One more step"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRanTPXkAAEP-L.jpg:large
CC-NC: "Let's make the Canaries stronger"
https://elapuron.com/media/2019/11/post/Pegada-Carteles-La-Palma.jpg
PRC: "Cantabria wins"
https://m.eldiario.es/fotos/repeticion-electoral-propicia-partidos-abstencion_EDIIMA20191101_0008_4.jpg

CUP: "Ungovernables"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIR1-UEX0AEI6s2.jpg:large
Teruel Exists: "It's Teruel's turn"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRsASkXUAAd7no.jpg
Logged
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,791
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1044 on: November 02, 2019, 08:33:47 am »

Probably the best illustration of the problem with the machismo and "strong leaders" in Spanish politics.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1045 on: November 04, 2019, 05:52:10 am »

Probably the best illustration of the problem with the machismo and "strong leaders" in Spanish politics.

Yeah I guess. That also makes the minor parties more interesting, particularly TE and CUP. The former using a map of Teruel province and the latter using an upside down picture of the famous lion statues in the door of the Spanish congress.

Another interesting minor poster is that from PRC, who is literally just recycling their April posters and slogans lol.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1046 on: November 04, 2019, 06:05:41 am »

Anyways, today was the last day that polling was legally allowed to be published. Not sure if we will see more polls tonight, but most pollsters seem to have published them between Sunday night and Monday morning. I will not post all of them, but I will post the final polling average:

PSOE: 27% (118)
PP: 21% (96)
Vox: 14% (46)
UP: 12% (33)
Cs: 9% (14)
MP: 4% (4)
Others: 39

Total left: 43% (155)
Total right: 44% (156)

So a total tie. In theory this would mean the election is too close to call, but the right has literally no allies within the "others" group (other than NA+ and maybe CC, and this last one is a stretch)

In terms of the evolution, the big changes seem to be a total Cs collapse and a massive rise for Vox. Keep in mind that Vox will get very few votes and no seats in like a third of the country (Catalonia, Basque Country, Canary Islands, Galicia); so the fact that they are this high is remarkable as it means they would be close to 20% in the rest of Spain!

In fact a recient regional poll of Andalucia put Vox in a clear third and within the margin of error from PP! For some reason the former stronghold of the left is making a hard right wing turn. If you are a believer in the Global Trends stuff, I guess Andalucia and Southern Spain are full of #populists Purple heart while Catalonia is full of #coastal elitists  Broken heart

If anyone is interested in sub-national polling Wikipedia has a great database
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,368
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1047 on: November 04, 2019, 06:23:04 am »

Total left: 43% (155)
Total right: 44% (156)

So a total tie. In theory this would mean the election is too close to call, but the right has literally no allies within the "others" group (other than NA+ and maybe CC, and this last one is a stretch)

The Right bloc was leading in the polls for the April elections, and the final result was a near-tie. El País seems to have erased their aggregate polling for the April elections, so I don't know the exact numbers.

Now the blocs are tied, so I guess either one of them could overperform!

In terms of the evolution, the big changes seem to be a total Cs collapse and a massive rise for Vox. Keep in mind that Vox will get very few votes and no seats in like a third of the country (Catalonia, Basque Country, Canary Islands, Galicia); so the fact that they are this high is remarkable as it means they would be close to 20% in the rest of Spain!

I'm super interested in the places where C's ran strong in the April elections. Places like the PAU's in northern Madrid (Las Tablas, Valdebebas), the wealthy municipalities to the northwest of Madrid (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Las Rozas de Madrid). Heck, near where I live, in Valladolid C's performed quite well, they got over 20% in most of the (I guess you could call them suburban?) municipalities that surround the capital city. Given their collapse in the polls, I wonder where most of their votes will end up now.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,778


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1048 on: November 05, 2019, 11:32:26 am »

Heh.

Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,500
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1049 on: November 05, 2019, 11:37:07 am »

Of course, what would any Spanish election be without analyzing the price of fruits in Andorra Tongue

Tbh I wonder if we will ever get rid of this dumb old custom. It should probably be reduced to just the last day (Saturday before the election); not the entire week.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 51 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC