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  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)  (Read 85425 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1075 on: November 09, 2019, 09:00:35 am »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

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"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."
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Velasco
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« Reply #1076 on: November 09, 2019, 09:40:53 am »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

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"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."

We know who you are, Tender. It's not the first time that you state your views on the matter
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1077 on: November 09, 2019, 09:47:28 am »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

Quote
"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."

We know who you are, Tender. It's not the first time that you state your views on the matter

Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1078 on: November 09, 2019, 10:43:53 am »


Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...

I know. You say that you don't vote for the FPO (I have no reason for distrust and anyway that's your business), but your "tough position" on immigration is not far from parties like Vox. What I say is that you have stated in the past a certain joy for the end of the "Spanish exception", as well you deem "far left" people with humanitarian feelings. There is people in the centre and the right that don't hate immigrants: see Angela Merkel. I suspect you would be a good fit for the Albert Rivera fanclub, although I'd challenge the notion that Cs and its Catalan leader are "centrist". In any case, we know your views already
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1079 on: November 09, 2019, 11:39:39 am »

Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...

I know. You say that you don't vote for the FPO (I have no reason for distrust and anyway that's your business), but your "tough position" on immigration is not far from parties like Vox. What I say is that you have stated in the past a certain joy for the end of the "Spanish exception", as well you deem "far left" people with humanitarian feelings. There is people in the centre and the right that don't hate immigrants: see Angela Merkel. I suspect you would be a good fit for the Albert Rivera fanclub, although I'd challenge the notion that Cs and its Catalan leader are "centrist". In any case, we know your views already

I have to clarify a few things:

* I have not stated a "certain joy for the end of the Spanish exception", I just said it's going to happen sooner or later that the far-right will also rise by quite a bit there.

* I do not hate immigrants. I have posted several times that I want strict rules enforced, because immigrants have more duties than rights when coming to a country and need to live according to these rules, not commit crimes, or be deported. That has nothing to do with hate. That's what someone would describe as common sense (except for many on the Left). In fact, I favour limited immigration from culture-similar regions of the world.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1080 on: November 09, 2019, 12:28:49 pm »

Speaking of "the Spanish exception", the fact that the far right has now crossed the Pyrinees into Spain (and Portugal, even if they only have 1 MP there) means that Spain is no longer the largest EU country with no far right parties in parliament.

That great honor of no far right representation now apparently belongs to Romania of all countries. Romania also has no far left parties, so I guess they have the healthiest politics in Europe? Tongue

Below Romania though, the list of countries by population drops fast. The country with no far right parties is Ireland (Aontu seems to be just a single issue anti abortion party and not a proper far right one; plus technically no elected MPs). Ireland being already the 19th out of 27 EU countries by population! (and Romania the 6th).

The full list seems to be this:

Romania
Ireland
Croatia
Malta

So only 4 countries left. Sad
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #1081 on: November 09, 2019, 12:38:15 pm »

well, Croatia has its far-rightists in its supposedly "centre-right" party, which has a problem with Utase defenders, and even Ireland had a pretty good result last Presidential election for an anti-traveller agitator.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1082 on: November 09, 2019, 12:48:00 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 12:55:39 pm by urutzizu »

And in Romania the "Social Democratic" Party certainly shares more ideologically with Fidesz then with Pedro Sanchez.

Really though, I dont think that Far-right Influence in Parliament is really something new in Spain. What is now VOX was before just the less savoury parts of PP. The Party was quite literally founded by the Censorship Minister of Franco. It just mixed with some of the moderate right and wrapped up its reactionary tendencies in the Christian Democratic Label.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1083 on: November 09, 2019, 12:57:24 pm »

* I have not stated a "certain joy for the end of the Spanish exception", I just said it's going to happen sooner or later that the far-right will also rise by quite a bit there.

The problem with you is that obsession with immigrants and your ignorance of the particular Spanish context. The primary reason for the Vox rise is the crisis in Catalonia. Immigration is an issue in certain parts of Spain (Murcia and Almeria, among others), as well the disintegration of the main party of the Spanish Right due to corruption and other factors. However,  the factor that fuelled the surge of a reactionary form of Spanish nationalism is the Catalan conflict. Particularly its aggravation with the events in Autumn 2017 and their late repercussions. That kind of Spanish nationalism was always there, but it was contained in the radical faction of a mainstream party called PP. The excesses of Catalan separatism have waken up that monster and the spectre of Franco lives again with us.

 But you ignore everything about the politics or the history of our country and come again and again with your single issue...
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Mike88
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« Reply #1084 on: November 09, 2019, 01:24:53 pm »

And in Portugal, some parties are making the same mistake other have made towards far-right parties: ignoring them and forbidding political initiatives in Parliament. CDS colapse and the PSD divisions aren't helping either, and Chega, in one pol,l is almost at 3%. We'll see how this unfolds, but the picture isn't good. Hope I'm wrong.

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1085 on: November 09, 2019, 02:55:19 pm »

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?

ERC is adopting a more pragmatic stance on paper, but don't forget that the Republican Left voted against the budget draft negotiated between PSOE and UP. Deals between ERC and the Spanish Left were very difficult in previous months, due to the obvious differences on the national question and the pressure from within the independence movement (Catalan nationalist leaders are always afraid of being called traitors by their radicals).  Now the situation is worse with the ruling of the Supreme Court. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras has been sentenced to 13 years in prison. How do you expect that ERC is committing to break yhe deadlock, given that terrible circumstance?
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Skye
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« Reply #1086 on: November 09, 2019, 03:40:59 pm »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?
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contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá
razze
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« Reply #1087 on: November 09, 2019, 09:53:12 pm »

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Babeuf
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« Reply #1088 on: November 09, 2019, 10:07:33 pm »

This didn't need to happen. Sanchez's arrogance will be (mostly) to blame if the right comes to power.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1089 on: November 10, 2019, 05:27:20 am »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?

I don't want to make predictions. All the possible scenarios point to a fragmented parliament .There is a need for dialogue and big State Agreements, but the parties are mired in their petty disputes and their leaders are short-sighted. The far right is on the rise, fuelled by the fires in the streets of Barcelona.  I fear the ghost of Franco, so I'll go to vote against that menace and against the ones who brought us this unnecessary election in fatal coincidence with the ruling of the Supreme Court. This means that I'll vote tactically for UP, which has a seat at stake in my province with Vox, Cs and the corrupt CC. I would have preferred MP, but anyway
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1090 on: November 10, 2019, 05:34:45 am »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue
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Skye
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« Reply #1091 on: November 10, 2019, 05:46:58 am »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1092 on: November 10, 2019, 05:52:25 am »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 05:57:32 am by tack50 »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.

Basically, I applied to vote from abroad by mail as a temporary resident abroad (ERTA vote; which is not the same as the CERA vote for permanent residents) but my ballots never arrived. Honestly I wish I could have just gone to my nearest embassy/consulate and vote there in person but that is apparently not allowed.

This article by El Pais explains the situation quite well in my opinion. Turnout among Spaniards abroad permanently was a whopping 5.6% last time.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/09/actualidad/1573326362_103978.html
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Skye
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« Reply #1093 on: November 10, 2019, 06:06:26 am »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.

Basically, I applied to vote from abroad by mail as a temporary resident abroad (ERTA vote; which is not the same as the CERA vote for permanent residents) but my ballots never arrived. Honestly I wish I could have just gone to my nearest embassy/consulate and vote there in person but that is apparently not allowed.

This article by El Pais explains the situation quite well in my opinion. Turnout among Spaniards abroad permanently was a whopping 5.6% last time.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/09/actualidad/1573326362_103978.html

Thanks, I was also reading about it in another article.

At first glance, the system looks draconian to me.

It's a bit similar for Venezuelan migrants, though the main reason it's difficult to vote is because expats have to reside legally in the country they currently live in, plus register in the embassies/consulates which can be a hassle since they're manned by people who reaaally don't want people abroad to vote. though my country doesn't have competitive elections anymore so who care
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1094 on: November 10, 2019, 06:30:17 am »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?

A fifth election. Because porque no?
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skbl17
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« Reply #1095 on: November 10, 2019, 07:04:56 am »

Here are the official results pages from the Ministry of the Interior. Obviously there's nothing yet as polls are still open, but we should get the first indication of turnout soon (at 14:00 CET).

Congress of Deputies
Senate

Turnout figures
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Mike88
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« Reply #1096 on: November 10, 2019, 08:02:30 am »

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
ERC is adopting a more pragmatic stance on paper, but don't forget that the Republican Left voted against the budget draft negotiated between PSOE and UP. Deals between ERC and the Spanish Left were very difficult in previous months, due to the obvious differences on the national question and the pressure from within the independence movement (Catalan nationalist leaders are always afraid of being called traitors by their radicals).  Now the situation is worse with the ruling of the Supreme Court. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras has been sentenced to 13 years in prison. How do you expect that ERC is committing to break yhe deadlock, given that terrible circumstance?

My idea was that the divide in the independence movement, between Torra/Puigdemont and ERC, would make ERC as the party that doesn't promote violence and hate in Catalan and Spanish societies. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, and of course the ruling didn't helped ease any tensions, not to mention Sanchéz "let it burn because they will get tired" strategy backfired completely. But, you're right, the conditions for a deal are really bleak, with no side caving in. I can also say that the feeling of annoyance is the same across the border, here in Portugal we just cannot stand any more Spanish instability news, and I can image the same feeling in Spain. Let's see how this unfolds.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1097 on: November 10, 2019, 08:12:58 am »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1098 on: November 10, 2019, 08:22:18 am »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1099 on: November 10, 2019, 08:25:15 am »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?
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