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  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)  (Read 84006 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #1100 on: November 10, 2019, 08:26:38 am »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1101 on: November 10, 2019, 08:27:39 am »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1102 on: November 10, 2019, 08:34:33 am »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 09:04:53 am by Walmart_shopper »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
Do you have the 6pm numbers for the last four elections?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1103 on: November 10, 2019, 09:01:54 am »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
Do you have the 6pm numbers for the last four elections!

Apr 2019 - 60.7%
2016 - 51.2%
2015 - 58.4%
2011 - 57.7%
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1104 on: November 10, 2019, 09:02:04 am »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs
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contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá
razze
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« Reply #1105 on: November 10, 2019, 09:08:50 am »

All this because Iglesias was greedy and Iñigo couldn't wait just five more minutes to start a new party. Smh
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1106 on: November 10, 2019, 09:15:06 am »

So I'm not going to make a prediction but I will engage in a bit of metagaming here. Lets say PSOE+Podemos+MP and PP+VOX+C's are both around 150, but the  left is a bit higher. This is what polls say right now, and unless there is a massive swing we will end up both near parity - just like back in 2015/16. There are problems with both of these govts, and their ability to reach the 176 threshold is tenuous. The right needs to probably hit 170ish combined to make such a govt work because VOX is a poison pill. The left would need to recruit some Catalan support which probably makes it also impossible, and that's ignoring the vendettas between Iglesias and Sanchez.

So now we are left with cross-block govts, and PSOE should get the most seats overall so they will get the nod. Both options are PSOE minority govts with abstention: PSOE+Podemos+C's, and PSOE+PP. The latter would be solely to put to rest the govt crisis, even though it opens a bigger door for Vox. the former would only work if C's is committed to their Macronist triangulation...which is possible since the Centralist/Castilian Nats self-jettisoned for Vox. C's is dying and maybe such a move allows then to survive and carve out a centrist niche...but C's agreeing to support the same Govt as Podemos is presently unthinkable, so PSOE+PP is therefore the most likely. That's where it stands right now, and it's all very sad because PSOE traded in it's beautiful results from April for this indecision purely because of egos.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1107 on: November 10, 2019, 12:04:14 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 12:11:16 pm by Walmart_shopper »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.
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Skye
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« Reply #1108 on: November 10, 2019, 12:13:59 pm »

That doesn't sound half bad actually, but what do I know.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1109 on: November 10, 2019, 12:46:12 pm »

The localized 6pm turnout reports paint a pretty murky picture.

Catalonia: 59.8% (down 4.4%)
Barcelona: 60.4% (down 4.4%)
Extremadura: 54.4% (down 5.9%)
Andalucia: 54.9% (down 2.3%)
Seville: 57.6% (down 1.5%)
Granada 55.3% (down 3.8%)
Castilla La Mancha: 57.5% (down 4.9%)
Valencia Community: 60% (down 1.6%)
Valencia: 61.3% (down 0.3%)
Murcia region: 57.9% (down 3.9%)
Castilla y Leon: 56.7% (down 5.2%)
Melilla: 39% (down 5.4%)
Alcocorn (PSOE suburb of Madrid): 63.9% (down 2.9%)
Torrejon de Ardoz (PP suburb of Madrid): 60.9% (down 4%)
Salamanca (PP stronghold of Madrid): 63% (down 2.8%)
Fuenlabrada (PSOE Madrid suburb): 61.3% (down 4%)

Catalonia is perhaps a surprise, and a problem for the left.  But a lot of right wing strongholds are simply not showing up at the same rates at left wing strongholds (except for Extremadura, I guess).
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jaichind
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« Reply #1110 on: November 10, 2019, 12:49:14 pm »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 
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Mike88
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« Reply #1111 on: November 10, 2019, 12:51:11 pm »



Only Álava (Basque Country) and Jaén (Andaluzia), have increased turnout rates compared with April.

The rest has lower turnout that ranges from 0% and -7%.

In terms of communities, 8 have turnout decreases above 5%:

Balears
Canarias
Melilla City
Extremadura
Galicia
Castilla y León
Principado de Asturias
Ceuta City

3 communities have turnout decreases below 3%:

Basque Country
Andaluzia
Valencia
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Skye
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« Reply #1112 on: November 10, 2019, 12:55:15 pm »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:
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Mike88
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« Reply #1113 on: November 10, 2019, 12:55:32 pm »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 

Yeah, like Walmart_shopper said, some right-wing areas aren't showing up, but some left-wing areas have not very good showings also. Neither side seems very motivated.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1114 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:11 pm »



Only Álava (Basque Country) and Jaén (Andaluzia), have increased turnout rates compared with April.

The rest has lower turnout that ranges from 0% and -7%.

In terms of communities, 8 have turnout decreases above 5%:

Balears
Canarias
Melilla City
Extremadura
Galicia
Castilla y León
Principado de Asturias
Ceuta City

3 communities have turnout decreases below 3%:

Basque Country
Andaluzia
Valencia

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1115 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:49 pm »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1116 on: November 10, 2019, 01:09:55 pm »

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.

The turnout rate could mean a lot and, at the same time, absolutely nothing. The areas with very low turnout seem to be areas where weather today is very bad with strong winds and heavy rain. All points to a continuation of the deadlock, unfortunately.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1117 on: November 10, 2019, 01:24:57 pm »

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.

The turnout rate could mean a lot and, at the same time, absolutely nothing. The areas with very low turnout seem to be areas where weather today is very bad with strong winds and heavy rain. All points to a continuation of the deadlock, unfortunately.

A continued stalemate was predictable. I'm more interested to know if the turnout decrease in rightwing strongholds is affecting the Cs vote. I take for granted that the Vox people will show up, but I cross fingers and hope polls were overestimating the Abascal party. Turnout figures don't look as bad as they could be, given voter fatigue
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Velasco
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« Reply #1118 on: November 10, 2019, 01:35:50 pm »

Repost: largest bloc by province

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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #1119 on: November 10, 2019, 01:41:19 pm »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.

I believe there is no real blackout, but rather than between 8 and 9 PM barely any votes will be in. But I am also not sure
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1120 on: November 10, 2019, 01:45:35 pm »


I saw the long, gray blob on the left edge of the map and was confused about which bloc was strongest.

Sorry, Portugal.  I like really do like you more.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1121 on: November 10, 2019, 02:01:37 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 02:05:01 pm by Mike88 »



The deadlock continues...

In Catalonia, ERC and Junts are losing to CUP it seems.

Take these "polls" with extreme caution as they aren't election day polls, but rather trackings from the last few days.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1122 on: November 10, 2019, 02:02:53 pm »

Looks like Right wing bloc narrowly beats out Left wing bloc
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1123 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:01 pm »




Surreal. The fifth election in April is going to be interesting.
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Skye
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« Reply #1124 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:32 pm »

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