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  Spanish elections and politics II (Apocalypse Now, 2020: The Red Leviathan)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Apocalypse Now, 2020: The Red Leviathan)  (Read 79810 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #1175 on: November 10, 2019, 03:59:52 pm »

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

CC is not compatible with Podemos or the BNG

Leaving aside that no bloc will win a majority, this result is truly depressing
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jaichind
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« Reply #1176 on: November 10, 2019, 04:00:40 pm »

I think PSOE will also lose its majority in the Senate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1177 on: November 10, 2019, 04:03:28 pm »

81.75% counted

PSOE   28.39%
PP        20.72%
VOX     15.10%
UP        12.77%
C           6.70%
Mas       2.32%
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Rep. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #1178 on: November 10, 2019, 04:03:32 pm »

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

Even assuming PSOE and UP can get their differences sorted out, not really, CCa will not support a government alongside UP. Worth noting of CC's 3 seats, 2 will belong to the centre-right CC and 1 to the centre-left NCa. So NCa might break the alliance and vote for Sánchez, but who knows.

Either way it is not the most unlikely government out there if the numbers hold, but I do expect them to come short by a couple seats in the end.
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kaoras
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« Reply #1179 on: November 10, 2019, 04:04:57 pm »

In the end, PSOE just needs more Yes than Noes, getting abstentions wouldn't be really that hard if they weren't so greedy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1180 on: November 10, 2019, 04:05:33 pm »

So the only thing this election achieved is to take PSOE+C off the table as an option.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1181 on: November 10, 2019, 04:07:27 pm »

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

Even assuming PSOE and UP can get their differences sorted out, not really, CCa will not support a government alongside UP. Worth noting of CC's 3 seats, 2 will belong to the centre-right CC and 1 to the centre-left NCa. So NCa might break the alliance and vote for Sánchez, but who knows.

Either way it is not the most unlikely government out there if the numbers hold, but I do expect them to come short by a couple seats in the end.

They are already short of it, 174 seats. But like Velasco said, and you said, it's very difficult to form a pact with all these parties. I was only looking at the results and trying to find a way out, but alas.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1182 on: November 10, 2019, 04:11:04 pm »

81,75% counted

PSOE 28.39% 122
PP 20.72% 85
VOX 15,1% 53
UP 12.77% 35
Cs 6.7% 10
MP 2.4% 3
ERC 3.44% 13
JxCAT 2.1% 8
EAJ-PNV 1.87% 7
EH Bildu 1.35% 5
CUP 0.96% 2
NA+ 0.46% 2
CC-NC 0.16% 2
BNG 0.5% 1
PRC 0.31% 1
Teruel Existe! 0.09$ 1

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jaichind
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« Reply #1183 on: November 10, 2019, 04:15:56 pm »

88.60% counted

PSOE   28.21%
PP        20.76%
VOX     15.12%
UP        12.80%
C           6.76%
Mas       2.36%
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Skye
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« Reply #1184 on: November 10, 2019, 04:21:30 pm »

Ciudadanos really imploded lol.
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rc18
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« Reply #1185 on: November 10, 2019, 04:24:21 pm »


They are currently behind VOX even in Catalonia...
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Skye
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« Reply #1186 on: November 10, 2019, 04:28:17 pm »

PP just took a deputy out of the hands of the PSOE in Madrid.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1187 on: November 10, 2019, 04:30:13 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 04:36:44 pm by Velasco »

In the end, PSOE just needs more Yes than Noes, getting abstentions wouldn't be really that hard if they weren't so greedy.

It's true that Sánchez just needs more affirmative than negative votes to pass the investiture. It was possible this summer with a coalition government with UP, backed by the PNV, PRC and Compromís and with the ERC abstention. Now it's worse, as the climate is much more strained after the ruling of the Supreme Court and the protests in Catalonia. Now we have a very strong far right party, replacing another force allegedly centrist and liberal but with a strong nationalist trait. Do you expect that Casado and his group will abstain for free in this scenario? PP will demand an iron hand in Catalonia, which is the perfect recipe for disaster. In my opinion Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera, alongside Carles Puigdemont ad Quim Torra, are the main culprits for this nightmare. I'd say that Albert Rivera should resign now, but our politicians are never responsible for the disasters they create: Pablo Casado and Susana Díaz are still around. Sánchez will survive but... at what cost?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1188 on: November 10, 2019, 04:31:13 pm »

94.18% counted

PSOE   28.07%  120
PP        20.79%   88
VOX     15.12%   52
UP        12.81%  35
C           6.79%   10
Mas       2.40%     3
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1189 on: November 10, 2019, 04:33:41 pm »

The sad thing is if you are Sanchez, this was a good election in your warped mind. You lose little seats, Podemos gets punished, and the combined right is near exactly the same as last time. Govt formation this time can only occur with cross bloc abstentions, be that PP or C's - which means Podemos  Coalition is automatically out. But these numbers are far more unstable.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1190 on: November 10, 2019, 04:40:30 pm »

Looks like deadlock again...

At least it looks like PP has improved a bit.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1191 on: November 10, 2019, 04:54:37 pm »

97.89% counted (I think we are pretty much done)

PSOE   28.02%  120   (-3)
PP        20.80%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.10%   52 (+28)
UP        12.82%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (new party)
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bigic
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« Reply #1192 on: November 10, 2019, 04:57:19 pm »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1193 on: November 10, 2019, 04:59:55 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 05:04:16 pm by Oryxslayer »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1194 on: November 10, 2019, 05:06:37 pm »

The sad thing is if you are Sanchez, this was a good election in your warped mind. You lose little seats, Podemos gets punished, and the combined right is near exactly the same as last time. Govt formation this time can only occur with cross bloc abstentions, be that PP or C's - which means Podemos  Coalition is automatically out. But these numbers are far more unstable.

Even if Sánchez has a warped mind, this outcome is dissapointing. Sánchez and his clique decided to go for a new election thinking that a "cautious majority" would reward 140 seats to the PSOE  Sánchez will survive, but the Spanish democracy steps back.
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bigic
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« Reply #1195 on: November 10, 2019, 05:09:30 pm »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1196 on: November 10, 2019, 05:11:26 pm »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP

Who are CpM?
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #1197 on: November 10, 2019, 05:12:36 pm »

99% of the vote is in, and it seems that (once again) the main ideological blocs are roughly tied in terms of votes.
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skbl17
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« Reply #1198 on: November 10, 2019, 05:13:23 pm »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP

Who are CpM?

Local center-left party that gets significant support from Melilla's Muslim population.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1199 on: November 10, 2019, 05:17:29 pm »

Albert Rivera is speaking. He will call an extraordinary party convention, but he is not resigning...
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