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December 14, 2019, 07:50:44 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69783 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1275 on: November 12, 2019, 11:48:03 am »

If Podemos and PSOE actually have a deal then it still needs one of the following to at minimum abstain:

-PP
-C's
-Catalan Parties
-Mutually incompatible parties like NA+, CCa, and El Bildu

PSOE+Podemos+Mas+EAJ/PNV+BNQ+TE!+PRC+El Bildu = 173

Which you know wouldn't be a problem if we had this deal last time -_-
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Lumine
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« Reply #1276 on: November 12, 2019, 11:55:33 am »

PP, C's and JxCat have said they'll vote against - CC hasn't ruled it out yet -, so it would seem they'll need ERC to abstain.

I know it's been said before, but still... Godd*mn, what was the point of the election then? Sanchez has made so many u-turns it's almost absurd.
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Intell
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« Reply #1277 on: November 12, 2019, 12:11:00 pm »

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

Isn't podemos a have a referendum, Catalonia independence is a frivolous issue that doesn't matter sort of party.

While CUP is a Catalonia needs to be independent and socialist because Spain is a fasicst state oppressing catalans/other groups.

Don't think such an alliance would work, but I might be completely wrong.
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tack50
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« Reply #1278 on: November 12, 2019, 12:22:34 pm »

I personally expect CC to abstain, if only because of their deal with NCa, but I could see also a split vote (NCa voting yes and CC proper voting no).

Either way, CC-NC are irrelevant. It all comes down to ERC now. If they abstain we have a government. If they do not, it is over (Catalans+PP+Cs+Vox are at 175).

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

There is some sort of solidarity, but not much. CUP puts the national question first. They are a party for radical far left Catalans who will never compromise. Unless said compromise involves putting the party of big business, led by a corrupt politician as premier of Catalonia because muh independence.
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crals
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« Reply #1279 on: November 12, 2019, 12:46:55 pm »

Didn't ERC cause the first election by refusing to vote for the budget though? Even if they abstain now what's the point if the government is unable to pass a budget soon?
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #1280 on: November 12, 2019, 02:02:25 pm »

What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Teruel Existe (TE) is a citizens' platform founded 20 years ago to defend the interests of Teruel province, that is afflicted by depopulation and lack of infrastructures. It's the first time that TE contests an election. The "forgotten province" is part of the so-called "Emptied Spain" and many of its inhabitants have migrated the neighbouring Zaragoza and Valencia. Deputy elect Tomás Guitarte is an architect and says that he's neither leftwing nor rightwing, although back in 1987 and 1991 he ran as local candidate for the centre-left regionalist Aragonese Union (CHA). Guitarte will sponsor legislative measures in favour of his province and the Emptied Spain. TE also won two seats in the Senate that could be decisive, given that the PSOE lost its majority in the Upper Chamber. I guess that Guitarte will be a politician in the fashion of the PRC leader Miguel Ángel Revilla, the regionalist premier of Cantabria

Thanks!
It's fascinating really - heard a lot about "Emptied Spain", the fact that "forgotten lands" are now going all the way to elect their own place-based representatives is quite a step from simply voting for anti-establishment parties.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1281 on: November 12, 2019, 03:02:02 pm »

How likely is the ERC to abstain?
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #1282 on: November 12, 2019, 04:45:23 pm »

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.
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tack50
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« Reply #1283 on: November 12, 2019, 04:47:33 pm »

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership with the Socialist Party or a coalition of chaos led by (checks notes) the Socialist party
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1284 on: November 12, 2019, 04:49:04 pm »

I like Pedro Sanchez so much. He's such a bastard!
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1285 on: November 12, 2019, 09:26:01 pm »

Preliminary deal between PSOE and UP (English version)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/12/inenglish/1573562718_041862.html

Quote
Caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the leader of left-wing Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, have signed a preliminary agreement to form a coalition government after Sunday’s inconclusive repeat general election in Spain. Despite months of negotiations between the parties to strike a governing deal following the April poll, the two leaders have done this deal less than 48 hours after Sunday’s vote (...)  

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

They have no other choice but making a virtue of need.

But yes: what was the point of this strategic fiasco, Mr Sánchez?

It won't be easy, but the deal will have the numbers to pass the investiture in a second vote. ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián said on election night that they won't block the formation of a progressive government. On paper, ERC is willing to abstain. However, the situation in Catalonia is  very turbulent and the pragmatic ERC leadership faces pressure from the Puigdemont group (JxCAT) and the far left (CUP).

If Sanchez becomes PM is it likely they can finish the process and have the votes before Christmas?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1286 on: November 12, 2019, 10:18:26 pm »

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership with the Socialist Party or a coalition of chaos led by (checks notes) the Socialist party

tfw you are your own Ed Miliband
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elephantower
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« Reply #1287 on: November 13, 2019, 06:51:09 am »

It seems like there's two main barriers to Sanchez getting a government by Christmas (he'll probably agree one eventually), but I have no idea how long each will take:

1. Fleshing out the details of the Podemos deal, including a distribution of ministries
2. Negotiating an abstention from the ERC

What are the chances both get done by Christmas? #1 seems pretty likely to happen in time, but ERC might take their time and push hard for concessions?
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Skye
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« Reply #1288 on: November 13, 2019, 07:35:47 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 07:40:34 am by Skye »

El País is reporting that the PNV lost a seat to the PP in Euskadi (I think it's from the province of Vizcaya). So now the PP has 89 deputies.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/13/actualidad/1573633022_648788.html
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7sergi9
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« Reply #1289 on: November 13, 2019, 10:24:15 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 10:28:01 am by 7sergi9 »

The ERE case's sentence is November 19, sanchez's will be fu**ed
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Skye
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« Reply #1290 on: November 14, 2019, 08:24:03 am »

Remember a few weeks ago when the INE reported the median individual/household income by census blocks and we were discussing how it translated to electoral results by precinct? Well, eldiario.es has posted a great article today about it!

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-zonas-pobres-PP-Ciudadanos-10N_0_963104386.html

For example, this chart shows a clear correlation between, say, how the vote share for the PSOE drops steadily the higher the income percentile, or how the PP's vote share jumps dramatically in the highest income percentiles:


This one shows the overall left v. right vote as it relates to income on a national level:


And this one by autonomous community. Obviously, it's more complicated than it seems in some regions thanks to the strength of pro-independence parties (Looking at you, Catalonia and Basque Country):


Plus, a nifty precinct map that also includes income info by precinct, and also shows how the wealthier and poorer precincts vote: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPAS-Espana-pobre-elecciones-calle-10N_0_963104406.html
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1291 on: November 14, 2019, 09:09:01 am »

Is Valencia basically Spain's Ohio?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1292 on: November 14, 2019, 03:44:45 pm »

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.
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tack50
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« Reply #1293 on: November 14, 2019, 04:33:32 pm »

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

Nope. The Spanish right is extremely well united into "the Unity of Spain" TM. It is hard to find individual politicians deviating much from the party line, but even then, there aren't really any politicians who want to advocate for a hard immigration policy but are more lenient on Catalonia, at least not in the Spanish right.

Closest thing I can think of is probably some people in the Basque branch of PP, particularly someone like Borja Sémper (leader of PP in San Sebastian town hall), who is indeed a moderate in the Catalan (and Basque) issue. However he is also very much anti-populist and also extremely moderate on immigration; not exactly what you are looking for. Similarly I imagine there must be some pro-immigration but anti-Catalonia politicians in the Spanish right (probably in Cs?)

As for the Catalan/Basque parties, in Catalonia JxCat would be the ones to look for regarding immigration. And in my opinion they have a lot of mixed signals. On one hand, they have attacked mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau on "law and order" a lot, claiming Barcelona is now a lawless city and what not. On the other hand, their November platform was very much to the left on immigration, even further left than PSOE's!

As for the Basque Country, PNV is probably what you are looking for. While they are still nowhere even close to being like say, Vox on immigration, they still adopt a relatively hard policy, definitely on the right and closer to PP than PSOE.

So other than PNV (and even there with some limitations), no, not really.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1294 on: November 14, 2019, 05:35:57 pm »
« Edited: November 14, 2019, 06:16:45 pm by Velasco »

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

Podemos is something like a centrist and burgeois party for the CUP, but there is some solidarity or affinity between the Podemos far-left faction (Anticapitalistas) and the Catalan far-left separatists. Some people within Anticapitalistas is truly fascinated by the revolutionary wing of the Catalan independence movement. I recall some statement or support manifesto revoked due to pressure from the Podemos leadership.

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

Nope. The Spanish right is extremely well united into "the Unity of Spain" TM. It is hard to find individual politicians deviating much from the party line, but even then, there aren't really any politicians who want to advocate for a hard immigration policy but are more lenient on Catalonia, at least not in the Spanish right.

Closest thing I can think of is probably some people in the Basque branch of PP, particularly someone like Borja Sémper (leader of PP in San Sebastian town hall), who is indeed a moderate in the Catalan (and Basque) issue. However he is also very much anti-populist and also extremely moderate on immigration; not exactly what you are looking for. Similarly I imagine there must be some pro-immigration but anti-Catalonia politicians in the Spanish right (probably in Cs?)

As for the Catalan/Basque parties, in Catalonia JxCat would be the ones to look for regarding immigration. And in my opinion they have a lot of mixed signals. On one hand, they have attacked mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau on "law and order" a lot, claiming Barcelona is now a lawless city and what not. On the other hand, their November platform was very much to the left on immigration, even further left than PSOE's!

As for the Basque Country, PNV is probably what you are looking for. While they are still nowhere even close to being like say, Vox on immigration, they still adopt a relatively hard policy, definitely on the right and closer to PP than PSOE.

So other than PNV (and even there with some limitations), no, not really.

I would challenge the notion that PNV is "tough on immigration". I'm not implying Basque nationalists are "lenient" (there is a middle ground on such issues) but anyway. Another question is that the PNV is a broad tent party that may incorporate hardliners.

Possibly that combination between "tough on immigration" and "lenient on Catalonia" can be fpund in certain minority faction within the Catalan independence movement which has xenophobic traits. I mean, the kind of nationalists regarding people from the rest of Spain as "inferior" might be prone to support a tough stance against otherf foreigners.

Also, don't forget there is a connection brteeen Puigdemont and the Flemish nationalism. The latter is certainly hardcore...

EDIT: Now I recall a proposal made by the Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu about the people rescued from the sea. If I remember well, Urkullu said they should be distributed between EU regions using objective criteria such as population, income or regional GDP. It sounds pragmatic and common srnse, not hardcore
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1295 on: November 15, 2019, 04:03:34 pm »

how accurate is this map?

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Velasco
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« Reply #1296 on: November 15, 2019, 06:50:55 pm »


It's accurate for Madrid in April 2019 elections and I guess for urban areas in the rest of Spain, excluding regions with peripheral nationalism. The map shows the Podemos stronghold of Lavapies (old town, gentrifying, labyrinthic), the PP stronghold of Salamanca (old town expansion with luxury shops), the Cs strength in upper-middle class new urban developments (PAUs in Madrid). However, the working class leftist strongholds are located south of Madrid ("cheap housing blocks"), not in the NW (the wealthy and rightwing periphery beyond Moncloa). On any case, the poorer areas vote PSOE as a general rule. Also, military and police bases are likely Vox strongholds (blocks around Museo de la Guardia Civil in Madrid, for instance)

November elections changed this map. Now the PP recovered in Cs strongholds and Vox is very strong in the south and west of the Madrid region. The far right is still stronger in wealthy areas, but it has made inroads in the southern periphery of Madrid (second in Fuenlabrada, a PSOE stronghold ). The precinct maps in media outlets are excellent and very useful
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Skye
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« Reply #1297 on: November 16, 2019, 04:13:04 pm »


Well, it was kinda accurate before, you know, C's got slaughtered everywhere.

I guess it also depends on the region. As far as I can tell, UP has weak performances in Castile and León city centres. Then again, city centres around here are full of old people, not exactly UP's constituency.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1298 on: November 17, 2019, 03:42:01 pm »

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/elecciones-generales/2019/11/14/5dcc73e0fdddff39ae8b4629.html


PSOE: PP 0.9, UP 2.5, Others 4.4, Abst 12.7
PP: PSOE 0.9, Cs 0.5, Vox 9.5, Others 0.6, Abst 7.9
Cs: PSOE 4.9, PP 23.9, Vox 9.4, Others 3.7, Abst 25.2
UP: PSOE 9.3, Others 10.3, Abst 10.3

Cs loses: 990k to PP, 387k to Vox, 203k to PSOE, 1 million didn't show up

Vox gains: 453k from Abst, 415k from PP, 387k from Cs, 58k from Others, 36k from PSOE


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Lumine
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« Reply #1299 on: November 17, 2019, 03:56:23 pm »

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?
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