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December 09, 2019, 03:47:42 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69371 times)
tack50
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« Reply #1300 on: November 17, 2019, 06:23:37 pm »

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?

The most common theory seems to be centrist and centre-left Cs voters who are disappointed at their right turn, but who also absolutely refuse to vote for PSOE, which means their only option was abstaining.
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7sergi9
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« Reply #1301 on: November 19, 2019, 08:45:16 am »

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/19/inenglish/1574153889_778519.amp.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1302 on: November 20, 2019, 02:29:51 am »

What are the odds of another election or do you think ERC will abstain.  Ironically had PSOE-Podemos had the deal before, they wouldn't have to rely on them and if government falls, I think a right wing one is quite possible although who knows.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1303 on: November 20, 2019, 10:26:16 am »

So how is 20N going this year?
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tack50
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« Reply #1304 on: November 25, 2019, 06:58:16 am »

For some bizarre reason a lot of people are expecting a regional election in Catalonia soon (there have been rumours going a very long time back).

Still, given ERC's kingmaker position, here is today's poll for a regional election in Catalonia, done by NC Report / La Razón

ERC: 21% (32)
JxCat: 19% (31)
PSC: 17% (24)
Cs: 12% (17)
PP: 9% (12)
CatComú: 8% (9)
CUP: 6% (7)
Vox: 6% (3)

To be honest the number of seats they are giving Vox is extremely low for 6%, I would probably give them 5 seat with that percentage. After all PP got 4 seats on 4% of the vote in 2017.

Secessionists: 46% (70)
CatComú: 8% (9)
Unionists: 43% (56)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1305 on: November 25, 2019, 11:19:31 pm »

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1306 on: December 01, 2019, 03:19:17 am »

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?

ERC is in "no hurry". Maybe in 2020...

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/29/inenglish/1575028809_259967.html

Quote
The Catalan Republican Left (ERC), a separatist party that could be pivotal to the formation of a new government in Spain, is in “no hurry” to reach a deal with caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who is seeking to get confirmed in the post after winning the November 10 election.

“During our meeting they explained that they are working with a more rushed timetable, and we said that we are in no hurry,” said ERC spokeswoman Marta Vilalta on Friday, alluding to the PSOE’s desire to get a government up and running before Christmas (...) 
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PSOL
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« Reply #1307 on: December 04, 2019, 08:59:14 pm »

In other news, refugee housing center “singled out” by Vox targeted with a grenade
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7sergi9
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« Reply #1308 on: December 05, 2019, 09:42:27 am »


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab
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Velasco
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« Reply #1309 on: December 05, 2019, 09:59:05 am »


PP and Vox blocked a statement in the Madrid regional assembly to condemn the "attempt" and the "hate speech", reports eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/PP-Vox-Hortaleza-Asamblea-Madrid_0_970803031.html


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab

You must try harder if you want to be in the Steve Bannon's payroll. Thank you for the fake news, anyway

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7sergi9
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« Reply #1310 on: December 05, 2019, 05:19:36 pm »


PP and Vox blocked a statement in the Madrid regional assembly to condemn the "attempt" and the "hate speech", reports eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/PP-Vox-Hortaleza-Asamblea-Madrid_0_970803031.html


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab

You must try harder if you want to be in the Steve Bannon's payroll. Thank you for the fake news, anyway



https://twitter.com/i/status/1202348462714564608
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Velasco
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« Reply #1311 on: December 07, 2019, 02:21:05 am »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 03:11:42 am by Velasco »


1) The news is fake. Police spokepersons have denied the authenticity of the gossip

2) Twitter is not a reliable news source

https://www.publico.es/sociedad/atentado-hortaleza-verdades-bulos-contexto-atentado-centro-menores-hortaleza.html

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El bulo del atacante magrebí

Una de las informaciones que comenzaron a circular rápidamente el miércoles apuntaba a una persona de origen magrebí como presunto autor del atentado. La información fue difundida por web de La Sexta y precisaba: “Un hombre de nacionalidad magrebí que ha saltado la valla, del centro de menas de Hortaleza, en Madrid, ha lanzado una granada de entrenamiento cuando era expulsado por un vigilante de seguridad". Horas después, La Sexta corrigió su noticia y afirmaba que esta información apuntada por una fuente sin precisar no había sido confirmada. Fuentes policiales han desmentido a Público la veracidad de esta información y aseguran que la cadena de televisión nunca se puso en contacto con la Policía para contrastarlo. Por el momento, la Brigada Provincial de Información no ha hablado de sospechosos.

"Dr White" is a quite telling nickname, btw
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tack50
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« Reply #1312 on: December 07, 2019, 04:26:49 am »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1313 on: December 07, 2019, 08:52:54 am »

Yesterday it was the anniversary of the Spanish Constitution.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/12/06/inenglish/1575623662_245117.html

Quote
As Spain observes the 41st anniversary of its Constitution, the surge of a far-right party that seeks to recentralize the country has effectively neutralized all political talk about constitutional reform (...)

But the plans for reform that had been mostly pushed by the Socialist Party (PSOE) have been relegated to the back burner, as Spain’s main parties seek to defend the country’s current structure, known as the estado de las autonomías and based on significant devolved powers to the regions.

On Friday the caretaker prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE, said that Spain’s current constitutional framework has enough tools to resolve “social and political conflicts,” and to address “the political and territorial crisis in Catalonia."(...)

Vox, which first entered the national parliament in April with 24 lawmakers and more than doubled this figure in November, has clearly stated its desire to change the basic structures of government, eliminating regional parliaments and police forces, and returning powers over healthcare, education and security to Madrid.

Meanwhile, the Catalan independence movement has repeatedly expressed its rejection of the Spanish Constitution, and even separatist parties that might support Sánchez’s latest bid to form a government, such as the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), defend the right to decide in an official referendum that would also require constitutional change.

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

This proposal is not new. Casado has defended the 'Greek bonus' on previous occasions. The PP leader also defends that Vox is a 'Constitutionalist' party, despite the far-right party wants to demolish the territorial structure consecrated by the Constitution. Amazing guy
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xelas81
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« Reply #1314 on: December 07, 2019, 11:52:19 am »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.
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tack50
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« Reply #1315 on: December 07, 2019, 12:16:57 pm »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.

Probably not. The constitution is fairly clear in that the electoral constituency is the province, though I guess courts could try and do some mental gymnastics to justify that but I don't think they would.

Also, contrary to popular belief, regional parties are not overrepresented. Here are the results for the election if it was done with a single national constituency and no threshold:


https://www.eldiario.es/politica/GRAFICO-quedaria-Congreso-electoral-circunscripcion_0_962403820.html

Notice how "other parties" actually go up, not down!
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