Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 20, 2020, 08:12:28 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel)
  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 49 50 51 52 53 [54] 55 56 57 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)  (Read 84481 times)
Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,088
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1325 on: January 01, 2020, 01:10:19 pm »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

A new election definitely worked for Sanchez, but not at all in the way he expected.

This is like breaking up with your boyfriend to see other people but then it doesn’t work out and you get back together and also Gabriel Rufián is there.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1326 on: January 02, 2020, 05:25:37 am »


Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon
.

Betrayal? Of course the Spanish Right will cry treason, but that's a strong word. I get that PSOE and ERC agreed bilateral negotiations between the Generalitat and the central government. Also, they agreed to call a popular consultation to ratify an eventual agreement between the parts involved in the Catalan conflict. As far as I know, socialists are not going beyond constitutional limits. Their major concessions have been apparently: 1) agreeing a bilateral negotiation and 2) admitting the existence of a political conflict in Catalonia, not only a cohabitation problem.

As for the prosecutor, I don't know. The ruling of that Luxembourg court concerns a specific question regarding the election of Oriol Junqueras as MEP,  not the ruling of the Spanish Supreme Court. However, Spain must comply with EU courts. I think the prison sentences for the Catalan politicians are harsh and disproportionate. Also, the reason why the prosecutor was holding on to the charge of rebellion (dismissed by the Supreme Court's ruling) was to move the trial from Barcelona to Madrid, in search of harsher sentences. Dirty maneuver, imo.

Logged
bigic
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 368
Serbia and Montenegro
Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1327 on: January 02, 2020, 01:46:42 pm »


ERC will enable the proposed Sanchez government
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,557
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1328 on: January 02, 2020, 03:52:21 pm »



So the PRC is a no and ˇTeruel Existe! is a yes.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,819
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1329 on: January 02, 2020, 06:14:52 pm »



It could be an outlier, but still.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1330 on: January 02, 2020, 10:43:21 pm »



It could be an outlier, but still.

RIP C's, they flew too close to the sun and now are  six feet under.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 990
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1331 on: January 03, 2020, 06:32:05 am »
« Edited: January 03, 2020, 06:35:52 am by CumbrianLeftie »

The hard right turn by Cs deserved no better, and now Vox have removed their reason to exist.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1332 on: January 03, 2020, 10:34:45 am »

ERC gives green light to the investiture

https://elpais.com/elpais/inenglish.html

Quote
 The national council of the Catalan Republican Left has agreed to abstain at the investiture vote of Pedro Sánchez, who will likely become prime minister once more on Tuesday7 que  

ERC's willingness to pass the budget might be conditioned by progress in negotiations. PSOE's third in line José Luis Abalos said the consultation on eventual agrements is by no means a referendum on self-determination.

EH Bildu agreed to abstain as well, decision ratified in a grassroot cionsultation.

It's worth noting this new government is not only sustained by the PSOE-UP coalition agreement. There is a deal with the PNV as well. The Basque nationalists are playing a key role in favour of stability, while defending their own interests.

As of now, Sánchez has the support of PSOE, UP,  PNV, MP, Compromis, Teruel Existe and New Canaries. BNG and Canary Coalition are in doubt, while PRC turned against when the deal with ERC was released. In case PRC votes against,  PSOE threatens to break the coalition govt in Cantabria.

PP,  VOX, Cs, NA+ and Foro, as well JxCAT and CUP, will vote against
Logged
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,966
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1333 on: January 03, 2020, 10:37:04 am »

Decided to map the support for the government in terms of the popular vote. While some parties are still unconfirmed, this map makes the following assumptions:

-BNG will abstain
-CC will vote no

CC's vote is counted as an abstention, as NCa's Yes vote neutralizes CC's no vote. A more accurate way of counting would split their vote more proportionally but it works as a first start.

First of all, here are the popular vote totals:

Yes: 44.7%
No: 44.9%
Abstain: 4.8%

So this government would technically lose if the vote was done based on the popular vote, albeit very narrowly and it is possible I have miscounted votes.

Anyways here is the map



Interestingly, only 5 autonomous communities have the Sánchez coalition winning, and of those only Asturias and the Basque Country have him above 50%. Sánchez is almost exclusively being carried by the huge margin in the Basque Country, getting 67% support though PNV-PSOE-UP and Bildu abstaining.

Maybe a "margins" map would be more interesting? Might make one later.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1334 on: January 03, 2020, 11:07:55 am »



First of all, here are the popular vote totals:

Yes: 44.7%
No: 44.9%
Abstain: 4.8%

So this government would technically lose if the vote was done based on the popular vote, albeit very narrowly and it is possible I have miscounted votes.

PSOE 28+ UP 12.84+ MP 2.4+ PNV 1.57+ TE 0.08 = 44.89

It' s a vote share higher than the result obtained by Boris Johnson's party in the UK elections.

Obviously we have a different electoral system. In Spain the Left and the Right are virtually tied in popularvote, according to the results of past year's elections (April and November). We have a divided country. This is the relevant issue, alongside the role of peripheral nationalists (Catalan, Basque) and the varied regionalist forces.
Logged
bigic
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 368
Serbia and Montenegro
Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1335 on: January 03, 2020, 02:48:37 pm »

CC will abstain
Logged
urutzizu
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 693
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1336 on: January 03, 2020, 04:54:47 pm »

So, um, Quim Torra has just been removed from his office by the Electoral Court?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1337 on: January 04, 2020, 05:10:56 am »
« Edited: January 04, 2020, 05:18:19 am by Velasco »

So, um, Quim Torra has just been removed from his office by the Electoral Court?


Yesterday the Electoral Court agreed by a narrow margin to withdraw the credential of Quim Torra as member of the Catalan parliament, which makes him ineligible as premier. The decision was motivated by a last month's ruling that sentenced him to be disqualified 1 1/2 year. Torra was found guilty of disobedience, because during electoral campaign last spring, he refused to withdraw some yellow ribbons (a vindicating symbol for the Catalan jailed politicians) from the balcony of the regional government building. Torra's departure won't be immediate, as his defence will appeal before the Supreme Court and the ruling might be suspended as precautionary measure by the latter within 24 hours.

At the moment Torra is still premier, but his possible removal from office shakes up Catalan politics and complicates the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, because ERC will be pressed from the independence movement to withdraw the deal with the socialists.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1338 on: January 04, 2020, 11:41:13 am »

CC deputy Ana Oramas will vote against the investiture, despite her la party leadership agreed to abstain. Oramas has been always very vocal against Podemos. She is is a veteran member of parliament and belongs to an affluent family from Tenerife island.

ERC leadership holds on to the agreement with the PSOE, despite the Electoral Court. Nothing is safe until Tuesday

Right now the investiture has167 in favour, 165 against and 18  abstentions
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,819
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1339 on: January 04, 2020, 11:46:55 am »

Like almost always, the Spanish political scene has basically no headlines in Portugal, until today when Portuguese media found this:


Quote
Spain: Spanish Government Agreement provides for Portuguese televisions and radios to be broadcast in Galicia

Quote
The agreement between the PSOE and the Galician Nationalist Block (BNG) for the Galician nationalist deputy, Néstor Rego, to vote in favor of Pedro Sánchez's investiture foresees that it will facilitate the broadcasting of Portuguese radio and television channels in Galicia. This was a measure that was already foreseen in the well-known “Paz-Andrade Law”, dated 2014, but was not implemented.

Plus, this:


Quote
The gaffe of the day. Does Vox want to attach Portugal to the Spanish territory?

Quote
The Vox wants the Spaniards to protest on 12 January in front of town councils to claim a government that respects the "Constitution and sovereignty," but the map of the country is raising many doubts.

Vox seems not only to be unhappy with the idea of Catalonia's independence in Spain, but also to aspire the aggregation of Portugal to the territory of our brothers. Or it may have just been a design problem in an image used to promote a rally scheduled for January 12th.

Also, about the investiture vote, will Bildu abstain? That seems odd.
Logged
contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá
razze
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,634
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1340 on: January 04, 2020, 01:28:14 pm »

CC deputy Ana Oramas will vote against the investiture, despite her la party leadership agreed to abstain. Oramas has been always very vocal against Podemos. She is is a veteran member of parliament and belongs to an affluent family from Tenerife island.

ERC leadership holds on to the agreement with the PSOE, despite the Electoral Court. Nothing is safe until Tuesday

Right now the investiture has167 in favour, 165 against and 18  abstentions

TVE was reporting that CC was gonna be en contra. Good to hear it's just one though!
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1341 on: January 05, 2020, 10:32:01 am »
« Edited: January 05, 2020, 11:01:47 am by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez loses first vote

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/03/inenglish/1578066750_393888.html

Quote
Spain will not break up; there will be dialogue to deal with the “political conflict” with Catalonia, without straying beyond the confines of the Spanish Constitution; and a coalition government made up of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos will implement reformist policies that will cast aside measures from previous administrations with regard to the economy, employment and personal freedoms. Those were some of the commitments set out on Saturday by caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, as he addressed Spain’s lower house of parliament, the Congress of Deputies, on the first day of his investiture debate (...)

Very tense moments during the speech of the EH Bildu spokeswoman, with the rightwing opposition calling her  ''terrorist'' while she deemed the Spanish State ''authoritarian''.

Teruel Existe deputy denounced pressure from the right. Someone painted a,graffiti at his village home and Vox leader Santiago Abascal called him traitor in Tweeter

Cs spokeswoman.Inés Arrimadas tried unsuccessfully to appeal rebel PSOE deputies. Adriana Lastra told to her that it's sad when you become irrelevant.

Yes 166 (PSOE, UP, PNV, MP, Compromis, BNG, NC, TE)
No 165 (PP, VOX, Cs, JxCAT, CUP, UPN, CC, PRC, Foro)
Abstain 18 (ERC, EH Bildu)

There's one vote missingin the ''yes'' camp, a deputy from Barcelona (ECP) is ill and could not attend nor register her telematic vote in time.

Second vote on Tuesday. Sánchez will pass if he retains his narrow simple majority




Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1342 on: January 05, 2020, 10:52:11 am »

UP members in next cabinet, providing second vote is successful

Pablo Iglesias (41): Deputy PM
Irene Montero (31): Equality
Yolanda Díaz (Galicia en Común, aged 41): Labour
Manuel Castells (proposed by ECP,  aged 77): Universities
Alberto Garzón (IU leader, aged 34): Consumer Affairs, including the regulation of gambling
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,557
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1343 on: January 05, 2020, 12:59:03 pm »

So it's very likely that Sánchez will win that vote, right? No last minute changes?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1344 on: January 05, 2020, 02:42:53 pm »

So it's very likely that Sánchez will win that vote, right? No last minute changes?

It's likely, but people in the left is crossing fingers. There's always the possibility that someone's falling ill or missing a train or a plane. The majority is so narrow that every vote counts

Tomás Guitarte, the Teruel Existe member, states there's no way he's gonna switch sides

https://elpais.com/politica/2020/01/05/actualidad/1578241358_989427.html

On the other hand, it's unlikely that Ana Oramas changes her mind. Oramas might be expelled from CC and her decision might create a rift within Canarian regionalists. She represents the most conservative factiion based on Tenerife island. As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC. Also, Oramas and the conservatives within CC are not apparently in favour of a reunification with NC. Oramas won't resign her seat in case of being expelled.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,557
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1345 on: January 05, 2020, 03:12:08 pm »

As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC.

Keep in mind it's not just old emigrants returned from Venezuela, but young Venezuelans who migrated to Spain and hold Spanish citizenship. But yeah, I'd dare to say most Venezuelan expats in Spain that pay just a modicum of attention to politics don't have a positive image of Podemos, to say the least.
Logged
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,966
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1346 on: January 05, 2020, 03:22:59 pm »

Fun fact: the other Canarian nationalist in Congress (Pedro Quevedo, NCa), who is voting Yes on Sanchez, was born in nowhere other than Caracas, Venezuela Tongue

He came to Spain as a child in the early 1960s though; well before Chavismo was a thing, but still a fun statistic nontheless.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1347 on: January 05, 2020, 04:25:29 pm »
« Edited: January 06, 2020, 03:01:02 pm by Velasco »

As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC.

Keep in mind it's not just old emigrants returned from Venezuela, but young Venezuelans who migrated to Spain and hold Spanish citizenship. But yeah, I'd dare to say most Venezuelan expats in Spain that pay just a modicum of attention to politics don't have a positive image of Podemos, to say the least.

I know most Venezuelan expats are anti- Chavez and don't have a good opinion of Podemos, despite Pablo Iglesias and others began to take distance from the post-Chávez disaster some time ago. In any case, I was referring to the CC membership in Santa Cruz de Tenerife province. Curious fact: it surfaced the not so young Juan Guaido's father was a taxi driver in Tenerife (maybe he's still there). Anyway, the Canary Islands have close ties to Venezuela due to historical emigration. CC has a presence in the country via Canarian emigrants and their offspring (they can vote in our elections if they hold Spanish citizenship). In the case of Ana Oramas, she's from a family of landowners in Tenerife. I ignore if she has some relatives in Venezuela, as nearly everybody in her province. Another fun fact: the grandmother of the Podemos deputy Alberto Rodríguez (an engineer notorious because of his rastaman appearance, curently secretary for organization) was a humble seamstress who made seam works for the Oramas' family and other wealthy families in the beautiful historical town of La Laguna.

There were emigrants from Las Palmas province too (case of Quevedo s family), but their influence is not so strong. Personally I have met several Venezuelans from both sides (a majority here is anti-Chávez, but there are exceptions)
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,557
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1348 on: January 05, 2020, 04:54:37 pm »

As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC.

Keep in mind it's not just old emigrants returned from Venezuela, but young Venezuelans who migrated to Spain and hold Spanish citizenship. But yeah, I'd dare to say most Venezuelan expats in Spain that pay just a modicum of attention to politics don't have a positive image of Podemos, to say the least.

I know most Venezuelan expats are anti- Chavez and don't have a good opinion of Podemos, despite Pablo Iglesias and others began to take distance from the post-Chávez disaster some time ago. In any case, I was referring to the CC membership in Santa Cruz de Tenerife province. Curious fact: it surfaced the not so young Juan Guaido's father was a taxi driver in Tenerife (maybe he's still there). Anyway, the Canary Islands have close ties to Venezuela due to historical emigration. CC has a presence in the country via Canarian emigrants and their offspring (they can vote in our elections if they hold Spanish citizenship). In the case of Ana Oramas, she's from a family of landowners in Tenerife. I ignore if she has some relatives in Venezuela, as nearly everybody in her province. Another fun fact: the grandmother of the Podemos deputy Alberto Rodríguez (an engineer notorious because of his rastaman appearance, curently secretary for organization) was a humble seamstress who made seam works for the Oramas' family and other wealthy families  elin La Laguna.

There were emigrants from Las Palmas province too (case of Quevedo s family), but their influence is not so strong. Personally I have met several Venezuelans from both sides (a majority here is anti-Chávez, but there are exceptions)


 P
to

I don't want to derail this thread further, but yes, ties to the Canary Islands in Venezuela are common. My father told me my great-grandmother was from there, but good luck trying to prove that now Tongue

I imagine now that the migration rate has exploded, it's more feasible that you meet pro-Chávez Venezuelans. A few years ago, when primarily wealthier folks migrated, that probably would have been more difficult. In the 2012 election, just before he died, Chávez received just under 7% of the vote from Venezuelans living in the Canary Islands: http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2012/r/2/reg_992603.html

Granted, turnout was low (I imagine it's because the only voting center for people in the region is in Tenerife so people from the other islands had to travel there to vote), plus there is the fact that there are few Venezuelans registered to vote abroad, not in minor part because chavismo likes to make it difficult for folks like us to vote.

To tie this to the thread, don't think us Venezuelans abroad are right wingers just because most of us hate Chávez and Maduro with a passion. I know for a fact some of my friends here are quite happy with the PSOE winning, even if they probably aren't exactly thrilled with the Podemos deal. After all, Venezuelan politics is vastly dominated by leftist parties. That said, many, if not most, will cringe at the mere prospect of having people with a history of praising chavismo in the government, and will vote accordingly; which in Spain, clearly means voting for the right wing parties.
Logged
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1349 on: January 05, 2020, 04:59:54 pm »

UP members in next cabinet, providing second vote is successful

Pablo Iglesias (41): Deputy PM
Irene Montero (31): Equality
Yolanda Díaz (Galicia en Común, aged 41): Labour
Manuel Castells (proposed by ECP,  aged 77): Universities
Alberto Garzón (IU leader, aged 34): Consumer Affairs, including the regulation of gambling
That's *the* Manuel Castells, right? Very influential scholar, love his work.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 49 50 51 52 53 [54] 55 56 57 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC