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  Spanish elections and politics II (Local and Regional Elections on May 26, 2019)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Local and Regional Elections on May 26, 2019)  (Read 22950 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #150 on: April 12, 2019, 11:57:01 pm »

Honestly, I thinks is very hard to understand the stability of Compromís, I mean, the coalition covers a broad range of movements with different views on Valencian identity (well, not blaverism), from strong Valencianism to people who want to establish the Catalan Countries. I think it is great, but also is weird in a country like Spain, where the left tends to implode and ends divided.

Compromís is indeed a strange coalition of Valencian regionalists (BNV or Bloc is the main partner) with some former IU members integrated in the party of Mónica Oltra (the ecosocialist IdPV). I think the main reasons that cement Compromís are electoral success and the charisma and leadership of Mónica Oltra. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc amalgamates several parties and it has a remarkable territorial implementation in the Valencian-speaking countryside, but it's weak in the most populous urban centres. The Bloc failed to win regional seats in 2003 due to the 5% threshold ruling in Valencia (it got 4.7%). In the following election the Bloc shifted to the left and established an alliance with EUPV (the regional branch of IU). This coalition was called Compromís PV ("Commitment for the Valencian Country") and proved rather unsuccessful (CPV got 8% in 2007, while EUPV and Bloc got a combined 10.8% in the previous election). The bad electoral result worsened a relationship between coalition partners that was pretty awkward already. Eventually an internal rift within the EUPV led to the split of Mónica Oltra, Joan Ribó and other EUPV members that established a new party in the likeness of the Catalan ICV (the ecosocialist IdPV). Oltra and her party kept the alliance with the Bloc, while the 'orthodox' faction of the EUPV followed its own path. Oddly enough the reshaped Compromís and EUPV were successful in the 2011 elections, as both parties managed to be above threshold (Compromís 7.2%, EUPV 5.9%). The new Compromís was initially led by the Bloc leader Enric Morera, with Mónica Oltra as deputy leader and parliamentary spokeswoman. However Oltra was always the most charismatic figure of the coalition: she came out as a tenacious and combative parliamentarian, very vocal against the corrupt administration of Francisco Camps. Her popularity and appeal among the young voters living in the cities contributed decisively to the success of Compromís. Enric Morera, on the other hand, is calm and measured so his personality is  in some respect complementary to that of Oltra. I'd say the success of Compromís is due to a rare balance between its heterogeneous components, both personal and organizational. On a side note, Compromís has parted ways with Podemos recently Oltra is in good terms with the former second-in-line Íñigo Errejón...

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Also I think the Valencian Community (or Pais Valencia) is the place (with Murcia) where Cs and Vox can do really well. Both are communities with historically strong provincial PPs that governed alone for many years but now are with notorious signs of exhaustion (the case of PP in Valencia is really crazy). Right wing people in those communities now have real options. I think Cs can also exploit the language card in Valencia with some success.

Yes, both Cs and Vox have good chances there. In the case of Valencia the anti-Catalan factor has been always a strong electoral card for the rightwing parties. The profile of the Cs candidate Toni Cantó is clearly anti-Catalan and "hardline liberal", in contrast with the social-liberal and environmentalist credentials of the 2015 candidate Carolina Punset. The latter is daughter of the popular science commentator and former UCD member Eduardo Punset and left Cs due to ideological differences, complaining the party abandoned it's alleged initial social-liberal orientation. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #151 on: April 13, 2019, 01:17:11 pm »

This article about the battle for the "Emptied Spain" is worth reading, particularly because it's a key feature of the upcoming general election

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-battle-for-spains-empty-center/

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panish politicians are flocking to the countryside, looking for photo opportunities with villagers, tractors and even farmyard animals.

The rural interior of the country has become the subject of mass political and media attention ahead of a national election on April 28. That's because the Spanish right has become fractured, which could mean the end of the Popular Party's stranglehold on the area and could pave the way for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists to win districts that are overrepresented in parliament in what is certain to be a very tight race.

Madrid's sudden interest in rural areas has also spurred many locals to take advantage of the situation. They are using the attention to highlight issues such as communities' aging and shrinking populations, as well as traditions they want to protect, such as hunting.

“Rural Spain today holds a prominent place in the public conversation, in the political agenda of each and every party,” Sánchez said at a rally in Segovia, north of Madrid, late last month. “After years of silence, it’s time to take action.”

Sánchez has good reason to be focusing on the interior. Polls predict that the Socialists will replace the Popular Party (PP) as the biggest party in a majority of inland provinces. But it's not because rural voters are flocking to the Socialists; it's because the far-right Vox party and the liberal Ciudadanos are taking votes away from the PP (...)

Spain is divided into 52 electoral districts, and the rural areas are valuable. The 28 most sparsely populated constituencies have just 20 percent of the population but 30 percent of the seats in parliament —  103 out of 350. On top of that, the electoral system becomes less proportional in these areas because of the reduced number of seats per district, giving the winning party a bonus.

In 2016, the PP won 40 percent of the vote in rural districts and 51 percent of the seats. A poll of polls for El País forecasts the conservatives will lose almost half their seats in those constituencies, while the Socialists will grow from 29 to 48.
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Velasco
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« Reply #152 on: April 13, 2019, 02:01:24 pm »

GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

Img

It's good news for the PSOE, although the pollster warns there's a high degree of uncertainty because 26% of voters could switch to other parties and change the result.

Vote share: PSOE 31.1, PP 21 (including NA+), Cs 14.4, UP 11.4, Vox 11.2, ERC 3.6, PACMA 1.4, EAJ-PNV 1.2, JxCAT 1.2, EH Bildu 0.7, Compromís 0.5, CC 0.3, Front Republicá 0.2

Right 46.6% 151-161 seats
Left 42.5% 164-169 seats
PSOE+Cs 45.5% 181-185 seats
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #153 on: April 14, 2019, 10:17:38 am »

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!
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« Reply #154 on: April 14, 2019, 10:47:46 am »

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.
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« Reply #155 on: April 14, 2019, 11:16:28 am »

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper:

32.9% PP, 10 seats (-2)
29.7% PSOE, 10 (+4)
11.5% C's, 1 (+1)
10.9% UP, 2 (-3)
  4.9% Vox, 0
  4.4% BNG, 0
  2.4% En Marea, 0
  3.3% Others

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.
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Velasco
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« Reply #156 on: April 14, 2019, 01:44:26 pm »
« Edited: April 14, 2019, 02:54:35 pm by Velasco »

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!

I guess you mean regionalist parties.

Traditional PP allies like UPN (Navarre) and Foro (Asturias) will never support it for obvious reasons. The Canary Coalition (CC) will never support a government including Podemos and is currently in bad terms with the PSOE. JxCAT is  dominated by Puigdemont supporters and won't back it, unless Pedro Sánchez is willing to make concessions on self-determination (extremely unlikely). I guess EH Bildu wouldn't support it for the same reasons, regardless there's more ideological proximity. ERC is currently in a more pragmatic stance than JxCAT in what regards the path to Catalan independence; it's possible that ERC leadership would want to back a PSOE-led government, but it would face pressure from pro-independence grassroots if there are no concessions on the part of Sánchez. The PNV has less ideological proximity to the Spanish Left than ERC and Bildu,  but its approach is far more pragmatic and the Basque nationalists want to prevent that Cs touches power (either in a rightwing coalition or with the PSOE). Finally Compromis (Valencia) would support a PSOE-Podemos government in all likelihood.

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.

The polls are favourable for Pedro Sánchez, but getting too confident is the worst thing socialists can do and I guess they are fully aware of that after Andalusia. The PSOE seems to be engaged in a catch all strategy and the socialists are apparently successful in regaining voters from Podemos and Cs. Additionally polls say they are attracting a cross-generational support and that's very positive for them. However that base of support is far from being consolidated. There is a high proportion of undecided voters that could decide the election one way or another, depending on which side they go in the final days.  Moreover the rightwing vote is splitted and this favours Sánchez,  but it's also very motivated to show up on election day. Mobilizing the leftwing vote is key, not only for the PSOE but to prevent the UP collapse. Will the fear of Vox be enough to make lefties go to the polls?

I don't foresee a Soraya comeback. Possibly the natural candidate to replace Pablo Casado in case of crushing defeat is Alberto Núñez Feijoó. Casado is far from being consolidated in leadership, but there are too many people in the PP disliking Santamaría. The Galician premier is the only consensus figure that could unite the party.

In the case of Cs the problem is that Rivera left all his eggs in the basket of the Colón Trio. A PSOE-Cs coalition would be the preferred option for the European Commission and pretty much by the business world and everything related to establishment. It's not easy to eat your own words when they are so weighty. Additionally the decision to place Inés Arrimadas as candidate for Barcelona might reveal a bad idea if she is not able to improve the orange performance in that key province. Prospects are not particularly favourable. Arrimadas is the obvious replacement for Rivera. I still think she's a valuable politician, but her showing after the last electoral success in Catalonia has been rather disappointing IMO.
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Velasco
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« Reply #157 on: April 16, 2019, 07:00:30 am »

The PSOE unveiled its "low key" platform in a campaign act that took place in Leganés, a working class located south of Madrid. Pedro Sánchez promised  a constitutional reform to "shield" pensions before an aged audience gathered in a senior centre. Recently the economic guru Daniel Lacalle, who is a staunch neoliberal and runs in the PP list for Madrid, made a campaign gaffe as he suggested a drastic reduction in pensions to maje the state system "sustainable". Later Lacalle claimed he was misunderstood, in a similar way that Pablo Casado charges against the press when he makes gaffes or controversial statements. Lacalle is promising a "fiscal revolution" with massive tax reductions that "will save 705 Euros to the average taxpayer" (and presumably a much larger amount to the richest taxpayers). On the other hand, Pablo Casado announced on Monday that he will apply the Political Parties Law to those organizing "escraches" ("escrache" is an Argentinian word that means "exposure protest" that may be synonym with "bullying" or "harassment"). Rightwing candidates and leaders Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, Albert Rivera and Santiago Abascal have faced "escraches" from radical pro-independence supporters in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Brief summary of proposals to tackle some of the country's main problems: five parties, two models

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/15/inenglish/1555313118_338133.html

Catalan crisis: PP, Cs and Vox promise to apply Article 155 and introduce direct rule, regardless the dubious constitutionality of such measure. PP is promising to intervene on subjects ranging from education to media outlets; Cs would ask the Catalan premier to comply with the Constitution and intervene in case of negative answer; Vox would rather suppress regional autonomy.

 The PSOE is trying to overlook the Catalan conundrum during the campaign. Its proposal is strengthening self-government and opposing both direct rule and independence referendum.

Podemos supports a negotiated referendum in which they'll support that Catalonia remains with an improved self-rule.

Gender issues: Vox advocates the repeal of the legislation against gender based violence. but PP and Cs defend it and want to address issues like the salary gap. PSOE and Podemos seek to strengthen LGTBI rights. The purple party wants to achieve gender parity in institutions like the Cabinet (I thought that was achieved already) or the Supreme Court within a 4 year period. as well as reform criminal legislation to protect victims of sexual assault (the case known as La Manada raised a lot of indignation).

Taxes: Leftist parties want that highest earners, big comapnies and banks pay more taxes. The PSOE announced new taxes on financial transactions and digital services, as well as a higher income tax rate for the wealthy.

The PP promises to cut the highest tax rate from 45% to 40%, bringing corporate tax below 20%, eliminating inheritance tax, estate tax, etcetera. Cs would reduce highest tax rate to 44%, act against corporate tax deductions and eliminate inheritance tax. Vox advocates massive tax reductions.

Pensions: Vague pledges for "reform" to achieve "sustainability". Vox would likely demolish the state system.

Employment: The right supports measures that reduce of workers' rights and make firing cheaper. The PP wants to go further the 2012 reform in order to continue the "progress on market flexibility", while the left wants to repeal part of this legislation to reinforce workers' rights and tackle job insecurity.

Nearly every party promises to improve the situation of the  workers through tax breaks and subsidies. Cs in particular always claims to be the party that best defends their insterests. There's some consensus on making paternity and maternity leaves equal.

Immigration: PP wants to fight smugglers and reinforce the southern borders, expand international treaties for repatriation of irregulars. All Venezuelan would be granted residency permits. The PSOE supports orderly immigration" and "maximum respect for human rights". Podemos seeks the abolition of immigrant holding centers (CIE), issue "humanitarian visas" and facilitate family reunification. Cox wants to deport all illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants who have committed a crime. Also, Cox wants to build an "insurmountable wall" to protect Ceuta and Melilla from the hordes coming from Africa. The last proposal has a clear resemblance with that of Donald Trump for the Mexican border. 
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #158 on: April 16, 2019, 07:11:41 am »


Catalan crisis: PP, Cs and Vox promise to apply Article 155 and introduce direct rule, regardless the dubious constitutionality of such measure. PP is promising to intervene on subjects ranging from education to media outlets; Cs would ask the Catalan premier to comply with the Constitution and intervene in case of negative answer; Vox would rather suppress regional autonomy.

 The PSOE is trying to overlook the Catalan conundrum during the campaign. Its proposal is strengthening self-government and opposing both direct rule and independence referendum.

Podemos supports a negotiated referendum in which they'll support that Catalonia remains with an improved self-rule.

Gender issues: Vox advocates the repeal of the legislation against gender based violence. but PP and Cs defend it and want to address issues like the salary gap. PSOE and Podemos seek to strengthen LGTBI rights. The purple party wants to achieve gender parity in institutions like the Cabinet (I thought that was achieved already) or the Supreme Court within a 4 year period. as well as reform criminal legislation to protect victims of sexual assault (the case known as La Manada raised a lot of indignation).

Taxes: Leftist parties want that highest earners, big comapnies and banks pay more taxes. The PSOE announced new taxes on financial transactions and digital services, as well as a higher income tax rate for the wealthy.

The PP promises to cut the highest tax rate from 45% to 40%, bringing corporate tax below 20%, eliminating inheritance tax, estate tax, etcetera. Cs would reduce highest tax rate to 44%, act against corporate tax deductions and eliminate inheritance tax. Vox advocates massive tax reductions.

Even though Cs has vowed not to form a coalition with PSOE, their stances on Catalonia and gender issues are surprisingly compatible.
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Velasco
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« Reply #159 on: April 16, 2019, 07:28:49 am »
« Edited: April 16, 2019, 10:15:55 am by Velasco »

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper:

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.

Sub-national polling is not always reliable, but anyway Sondaxe is already placing PSOE ahead of the PP in Galicia.

There is a compilation of polls at sub-national level in the Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-national_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Spanish_general_election

Also, the opinion polling for the upcoming Valencian regional elections is favourable for the leftwing parties. The three last polls appearing in the Wiki page (NC Report, 40dB and Invest Group) estimate a majority for PSOE, Compromís and UP.

In my opinion there are some pollsters that deserve more credit than others. Regardless, I think that all the opinion polls must be taken with some grains of salt. The Vox factor is very difficult to measure. Nobody knows of the Vox support will peak in the final days, with thousands of angry conservatives and abstentionists showing up for the far right party, or it will deflate. Next week the Vox leader Santiago Abascal will confront the rest of leaders in the TV debate. I don't expect a great performance by the far right leader, because he's not a good speaker and lacks intellect or human qualities. But these times are very strange. so we'll see.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/14/spain-vox-party-on-course-to-break-into-mainstream-politics

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The Andalucían vote had two dramatic and enduring consequences: not only did it see the socialist PSOE turfed out of office in its traditional stronghold, it also confirmed both the advent of Vox and its growing influence on other rightwing parties.
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Velasco
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« Reply #160 on: April 16, 2019, 07:33:54 am »

Even though Cs has vowed not to form a coalition with PSOE, their stances on Catalonia and gender issues are surprisingly compatible.

Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #161 on: April 16, 2019, 10:44:44 am »


Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.

Fair. I was trying to keep my hope high for a PSOE-based coalition I guess 😶
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Velasco
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« Reply #162 on: April 16, 2019, 01:12:00 pm »


Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.


Fair. I was trying to keep my hope high for a PSOE-based coalition I guess 😶

The fact that PSOE and Cs have serious differences doesn't imply the impossibility to reach agreements in the future. Actually a PSOE-Cs agreement would please many factual powers and they will certainly push for it, providing that numbers fit. However the hardline stance against dialogue on the part of Cs is a serious obstacle, regardless both parties concur in their opposition to a referendum on self-determination in Catalonia. Also, the federalism advocated by the PSOE clashes with  the Cs centralist leanings. Not to mention Rivera's promises and his harsh words against Sánchez. However, Rivera promised in 2015 and 2016 that he would never deal with Sánchez and Rajoy. Everybody knows he did in both cases. Moreover, one of the main traits of Pedro Sánchez is his flexibility, something that can be intrepreted in a positive or a negative light. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is warning against the possibility of a PDOE-Cs deal. Obviously that's a campaign argument with the purpose of retaining leftwing voters susceptible to flee to PSOE. Iglesias is also seeking a result that makes the seats won by UP necessary for government formation...
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« Reply #163 on: April 16, 2019, 02:37:12 pm »

My preliminary estimate is that VOX should get 13.5 to 15% in the election.

Also: it seems as if VOX will not appear in any debate because of their 0.2% or something they received in the 2016 election and therefore no seats in parliament.

Spanish election law article 66.2 says that only parties getting more than 5% in the last election can take part in debates and I guess this also applies to private TV channels ...
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« Reply #164 on: April 16, 2019, 03:26:21 pm »

PSOE have staged something of a comeback recently, no? Before it looked like they would only be slightly above the PP.

Also worth noting that UP has feminized their name to Unidas Podemos.
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Velasco
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« Reply #165 on: April 17, 2019, 06:32:43 pm »
« Edited: April 17, 2019, 06:38:52 pm by Velasco »

The five-candidate debate suspended by the Central Electoral Board (Junta Electoral Central, JEC). ERC, PNV and CC appealed before the JEC complaining for being left out

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/17/inenglish/1555485592_606737.html

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According to legislative reforms introduced in 2011, private networks have the obligation to respect the same principles of “neutrality and equality” as public stations. At that time, the Central Electoral Board (JEC) established that only parties that had earned at least five percent of votes at the last general election could participate in these debates.

Vox obtained 0.2% of the vote at the 2016 election, significantly shy of the threshold. Election officials said its presence would violate the rights of Catalan and Basque nationalist parties, whose leaders were not invited to the event.

The JEC told the Atresmedia group, which owns Antena 3 and La Sexta, to come up with an alternative format for the program. Atresmedia offered a new four-way debate on the same date, April 23 at 10pm.

But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday announced that he will instead attend a four-candidate debate on the state broadcaster TVE, scheduled for the same day. The Socialist Party (PSOE) has finally opted for the public television over the private network, saying that “it has offered the signal for free to all media wishing to air the debate,” and because it was the first to offer a four-candidate debate. Before the JEC’s decision, Sánchez had originally opted for Atresmedia over TVE.
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Prior to the 2015 general elections, Atresmedia organized a debate including Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) and Albert Rivera (Cs), alongside with Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) and Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría representing the PP (PM Mariano Rajoy refused to go). By then Podemos and Cs didn't have seats in Congress, but the 5% rule was relaxed to include other nationwide elections. Given that Podemos got 8% in the 2014 EP elections and Cs got more than 5% in the local elections held in May 2015, their candidates were allowed to participate in the debate. Anyway Pablo Iglesias stated that it is absurd to veto candidates in private network debated and I tend to agree with that.

Pedro Sánchez had accepted to participate in the five-candidate debate with the Vox leader because it was deemed suitable for his campaign strategy. It would have been a  great opportunity to show the Trio of Colón (PP, Cs and Vox) together and place himself at the centre of the stage: a moderate candidate advocating common sense, confronted to the radicalized and vociferous rightwing opposition. The divide and conquer strategy performed by Sánchez has certain resemblance with the strategy employed by Miterrand with the FN in the 80s. Apparently not everybody in the PSOE agreed with that course, but in any case the decision of the electoral board is a setback for the campaign.

Yesterday night there was a debate in TVE between representatives of the six parliamentary groups. Participants were: Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo (PP), María Jesús Montero (PSOE), Irene Montero (Podemos), Inés Arrimadas (Cs), Gabriel Rufián (ERC) and Aitor Esteban (PNV).

The highlight was an intervention of the PP candidate for Barcelona; "I find fascinating -told to the Treasure minister María Jesús Montero- that point in your platform saying you will guarantee with the Penal Code anything that is "no" is "yes", is "no". A silence is a "no"? Are you saying "yes", "yes" until the end? Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo was referring to the controversy on the sexual consent of women, in relation with the ruling of a case known by La Manada that raised widespread indignation. In summer 2016 a young woman was forced to have sexual relationships with 5 men during Los Sanfermines, a big fiesta that takes place in Pamplona (Navarre). Nearly everybody in Spain considered it was a multiple violation. However the court ruled it was sexual abuse but no violation, because the victim didn't say "no" explicitly to the five men. That rule provoked a wave of protests and a debate on whether silence implies consent or not. The PSOE intends to legislate in order that everything that is not explicit consent is considered a "no". Obviously Älvarez de Toledo disagrees with that proposal. The harsh tone of Älvarez de Toledo on this and other subjects (she attacked Sánchez too, in relation with Catalonia) raises enthusiasm in the faction of the PP close to Pablo Casado, but some supporters of Mariano Rajoy fear that it could help to mobilize the left.
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« Reply #166 on: April 18, 2019, 12:25:35 am »

A new poll has VOX with more than 14% support.

The way this is going (like in Finland), they will get 14-17% ... up from 0.2% in 2016.
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« Reply #167 on: April 19, 2019, 05:14:44 am »
« Edited: April 19, 2019, 07:58:54 am by Velasco »

The 'war on debates' came to an end. PM Pedro Sánchez accepted to participate in the debates organized by the public channel TVE and the private network Atresmedia that will take place on two consecutive days, Monday 22 (TVE) and Tuesday 23 (Atresmedia). Initially Pedro Sánchez stated his intention to participate only in the debate organized by Atresmedia, but after the exclusion of Vox he changed his mind and said he would participate in the debate organized by TVE and asked the public broadcaster RTVE to change the date from Monday to Tuesday. The RTVE manager accepted the request raising criticism among opposition leaders (whom maintained their commitment with the Atresmedia debate on Tuesday) and the journalists of the public channel. So we'll have two opportunities to watch the four candidates: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Cs) and Pablo Iglesias (UP).

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is giving a press conference today from prison, as the electoral board allowed the tried separatist leaders to do so via streaming. He stated that "neither by act nor by omission we will permit a far right government".

The Economist editorializes it'd be good that Pedro Sánchez gets a result allowing him to form a stable government and deems economically dangerous a PSOE-Pdemos coalition. Also, it warns that a rightwing triumvirate would aggravate conflict in Catalonia and be a step in the wrong direction for a country that fought so hard against the ghosts of the Franco's nationalism.
 
In a similar line, Brussels fears that the election may not end political instability

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/18/inenglish/1555570052_174296.html

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Elections are one of those defining moments in the history of a country. Spain is viewing the general election of April 28 as some sort of second democratic Transition, following a decade of recession that left lingering scars in the form of unemployment and inequality. There is also the biggest political crisis in 40 years to contend with – Catalonia – as well as a new and imperfect five-way party system that is going to turn parliament on its head.

Spain’s young leaders (they were all born after 1972) have opted for a confrontational tone that complicates post-election alliances. This ulcerous atmosphere also makes it hard to hold far-reaching debates: besides the headline-grabbing sound bites, hardly anyone is taking a clear stand on the main issues driving Europe’s agenda, from Brexit to immigration or the future of the euro (...)

  
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Velasco
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« Reply #168 on: April 20, 2019, 10:44:18 am »
« Edited: April 20, 2019, 03:17:40 pm by Velasco »

This is an extraordinary map of the 2016 results by precinct or census section

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/17/actualidad/1555522788_557334.html

Results in my precict were UP 33%, PP 28%, PSOE 23%, Cs 11%

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Velasco
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« Reply #169 on: April 20, 2019, 03:35:13 pm »

Some takes from the 2016 map

Madrid: PP wins in the wealthy districts along the Paseo de la Castellana, getting more than 80% of the vote in some precincts located in the Salamanca district. Unidos Podemos wins in emblematic neighbourhoods of the Madrid centre such as the multicultural Lavapiés (Podemos birthplace), Chueca (the LGTB quarter) and Malasaña (nightlife)

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Barcelona: The red belt around Barcelona turned purple in the 2015 and 2016 elections. En Comú Podem was the winning party in most pf the Barcelona's neighbourhoods, while the PP resisted in the wealthiest sections of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Les Corts in competetion with CDC

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Velasco
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« Reply #170 on: April 21, 2019, 09:51:07 am »

40 dB poll for El País. PP performing below 20% would be a catastrophe for Casado

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The real campaign begins tomorrow with the TV debate in two rounds
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« Reply #171 on: April 21, 2019, 11:12:24 am »

40 dB poll for El País. PP performing below 20% would be a catastrophe for Casado

Img


The real campaign begins tomorrow with the TV debate in two rounds

So the Right-Left percentages haven't really changed, its just the distribution between the blocks that has shifted to the benefit of sanchez.

Whats really interesting is that PSOE-C's has a hypothetical majority (never mind how realistic) only on 43% of the vote.
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tack50
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« Reply #172 on: April 21, 2019, 12:49:57 pm »

Not that unrealistic at all. The theshold for getting an overall majority as a single party seems to start at around 40% of the vote but depends also on how divided the opposition is.

Felipe González got exactly 175/350 seats in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote. On an even more surprising fact, UCD came only 7 seats away from a majority with only 34.8% of the popular vote. The party that has benefited the most from the election system historically is still UCD, Spain's election system was designed on purpose so UCD would get a majority with roughly 35% of the popular vote while PSOE would need closer to 40%.

However, trends have definitely made this less clear and more about just benefiting large parties though there's still a very small right wing bias when all things are equal (which only mattered during the 2 party system era)

The math for blocs is certainly a lot more complicated though. But it's not that weird for PSOE+Cs to be with a majority with only around 43% of the vote.
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tack50
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« Reply #173 on: April 21, 2019, 12:55:37 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%
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« Reply #174 on: April 21, 2019, 01:03:47 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.
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