Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

I decided to do a bit of math to search for possible coalitions and here are the 2 most likely ones (for each possible route Sánchez can take)

Option 1:

Yes: 125 (PSOE+MP+PRC+Teruel Existe)
Abstain: 102 (PP+Cs+Navarra Suma+CC)
No: 123 (Vox+UP+ERC+JxCat+PNV+Bildu+CUP+BNG)

Option 2:

Yes: 167 (PSOE+UP+PNV+MP+PRC)
Abstain: 21 (ERC+Bildu+CC+Teruel Existe+BNG)
No: 162 (PP+Vox+Cs+JxCat+CUP+Navarra Suma)

[Former President tack50]

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide. 

Regarding these 2 maps:

The Madrid map ring of suburbs for Vox is actually more ex-urban in character, extending well into Castille-La Mancha. That area also has seen relatively high population growth I think.

Madrid's closer (and larger) suburbs are the very affluent western suburbs (Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc) which went to PP and the old and relatively working class "red belt" (Getafe, Rivas-Vaciamadrid, etc), which went to PSOE.

Also Teruel Existe's map is hilarious to me in that they won the province by winning big in the provincial capital of Teruel. Most of actually rural Teruel did not vote for them. Teruel town is not a large town by any means (35 000 inhabitants) but considering TE's platform it is funny how rural Teruel did not vote for them, while "urban" Teruel did. (though in the 2nd and 3rd largest towns in the province, the only 2 others above 5000 people, they did not do particularly well)

[Former President tack50]

Also, since we live in the same town, here are the results from my precinct, for an interesting comparison with Velasco's precinct:

Turnout: 69% (-4)

PSOE: 24% (+2)
PP: 24% (+6)
Vox: 18% (+8)
UP: 16% (-2)
CC: 7% (+3)
Cs: 5% (-15 !)
MP: 2% (+2)

So it seems in terms of right vs left basically nothing moved (if anything a tiny swing to the left), with Cs support going evenly to PP and Vox for some reason. Beyond that, Canarian regionalists win from basically everyone and not much change.

My precinct is a suburban middle class precinct quite far from the city center and with a rather rural "tone" to it (it feels more rural than areas that are even further away from the city).

[Former President tack50]

I personally expect CC to abstain, if only because of their deal with NCa, but I could see also a split vote (NCa voting yes and CC proper voting no).

Either way, CC-NC are irrelevant. It all comes down to ERC now. If they abstain we have a government. If they do not, it is over (Catalans+PP+Cs+Vox are at 175).

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

There is some sort of solidarity, but not much. CUP puts the national question first. They are a party for radical far left Catalans who will never compromise. Unless said compromise involves putting the party of big business, led by a corrupt politician as premier of Catalonia because muh independence.

[Former President tack50]

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership with the Socialist Party or a coalition of chaos led by (checks notes) the Socialist party

[Former President tack50]

Couple questions.  Is there a PP or Vox politician who calls for a hard line on immigration, but is not for  a crackdown on Catalonia?  I would think there would be someone out there whose top concern would be keeping Spain ethnically about how it is now, but wouldn't be nearly concerned about whether Catalonia moves toward independence.

Also, among the Basque and Catalonian parties do any stake out any clear positions on the rightwing when it comes to immigration policy.

Nope. The Spanish right is extremely well united into "the Unity of Spain" ^TM. It is hard to find individual politicians deviating much from the party line, but even then, there aren't really any politicians who want to advocate for a hard immigration policy but are more lenient on Catalonia, at least not in the Spanish right.

Closest thing I can think of is probably some people in the Basque branch of PP, particularly someone like Borja Sémper (leader of PP in San Sebastian town hall), who is indeed a moderate in the Catalan (and Basque) issue. However he is also very much anti-populist and also extremely moderate on immigration; not exactly what you are looking for. Similarly I imagine there must be some pro-immigration but anti-Catalonia politicians in the Spanish right (probably in Cs?)

As for the Catalan/Basque parties, in Catalonia JxCat would be the ones to look for regarding immigration. And in my opinion they have a lot of mixed signals. On one hand, they have attacked mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau on "law and order" a lot, claiming Barcelona is now a lawless city and what not. On the other hand, their November platform was very much to the left on immigration, even further left than PSOE's!

As for the Basque Country, PNV is probably what you are looking for. While they are still nowhere even close to being like say, Vox on immigration, they still adopt a relatively hard policy, definitely on the right and closer to PP than PSOE.

So other than PNV (and even there with some limitations), no, not really.

[Former President tack50]

Vote transfers, according to Sigma Dos

Interesting! I can see why C's would lose so many votes to PP (and it's not difficult to explain why they'd lose some to PSOE and VOX), but what is the explanation for those levels of abstention? Is it a reaction to the swings of the party, the campaign, or something else?

The most common theory seems to be centrist and centre-left Cs voters who are disappointed at their right turn, but who also absolutely refuse to vote for PSOE, which means their only option was abstaining.

[Former President tack50]

For some bizarre reason a lot of people are expecting a regional election in Catalonia soon (there have been rumours going a very long time back).

Still, given ERC's kingmaker position, here is today's poll for a regional election in Catalonia, done by NC Report / La Razón

ERC: 21% (32)
JxCat: 19% (31)
PSC: 17% (24)
Cs: 12% (17)
PP: 9% (12)
CatComú: 8% (9)
CUP: 6% (7)
Vox: 6% (3)

To be honest the number of seats they are giving Vox is extremely low for 6%, I would probably give them 5 seat with that percentage. After all PP got 4 seats on 4% of the vote in 2017.

Secessionists: 46% (70)
CatComú: 8% (9)
Unionists: 43% (56)

[Former President tack50]

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

[Former President tack50]

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.

Probably not. The constitution is fairly clear in that the electoral constituency is the province, though I guess courts could try and do some mental gymnastics to justify that but I don't think they would.

Also, contrary to popular belief, regional parties are not overrepresented. Here are the results for the election if it was done with a single national constituency and no threshold:


https://www.eldiario.es/politica/GRAFICO-quedaria-Congreso-electoral-circunscripcion_0_962403820.html

Notice how "other parties" actually go up, not down!

[Former President tack50]

Well, today was a big day regarding Catalonia.

First of all, the EU Court of Justice ruled that Oriol Junqueras, currently in jail, should have been seen as posessing parliamentary immunity during the judicial process. Spanish Courts assumed he first needed to swear in, but the EU justices disagree

The EU court of justice did rule that the trial does not need to be repeated, and lets Spanish Courts choose whether to free Junqueras out of jail or not. Ironically this makes things easier for Puigdemont and Toni Comín (also elected as MEPs) to swear in and achieve parliamentary immunity than it helps Junqueras himself, who might see no changes in his situation.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/fallo-justicia-europea-inmunidad-junqueras-7780633
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/sentencia-oriol-junqueras-7780832

At the same time, Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia ruled on a judicial process related to premier Quim Torra, accused of disobedience for not removing a yellow lace (a pro-secessionist symbol) from the balcony of the Catalan Government building. His sentence is 1 and a half years barred from holding public office.

This ruling is not a firm ruling as Torra could theoretically appeal to the Spanish Supreme Court. This does mean Torra will remain as premier for now, until the sentence is final or Torra declines to appeal. If he is eventually disqualified from holding public office, Deputy Premier Pere Aragonés (ERC) would become acting premier and the standard government-making process would begin, not unlike after a regional election.

It is rumoured that Torra might call a snap election, even if he will be banned from standing for reelection. This would also mean JxCat wouldn't need to give ERC (even if just temporarily) the premiership of Catalonia.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/inhabilitacion-torra-legislatura-catalunya-cuenta-atras-7741469

[Former President tack50]

Any news about Pedro Sanchez?

About government formation? Not really other than negotiations still going on and an expected confidence vote happening some time after new Year's.

[Former President tack50]

It has been an extremely slow news cycle lately because of Christmas and what not. Politically we did have sort of a surprise in that in Leon town hall the PSOE+UP+UPL majority (UPL being Leon province regionalists) passed a motion to call for the region of Castille-Leon to be split into 2: A region of Castille and a region of Leon (made up of 3 provinces: Leon, Zamora and Salamanca, all 3 along the Portuguese border)

This motion is going nowhere, but it is still interesting to see that it happened. It is also interesting to note that both PSOE and PP are divided on the issue (though PSOE much more so than PP).

Spliting autonomous communities is of dubious constitutionality, but not 100% unconstitutional like say, Catalan independence.

[Former President tack50]

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

[Former President tack50]

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.

Oh, definitely not. Even passing a budget will be a huge challenge. I do expect Sánchez to pass a (late) budget for 2020. However a 2021 budget seems very hard to pass in my opinion, and 2022 and beyond is not happening.

I would expect this government to last for around 2-3 years; definitely nowhere near a full term. The next election will be some time in 2022 I believe.

[Former President tack50]

Decided to map the support for the government in terms of the popular vote. While some parties are still unconfirmed, this map makes the following assumptions:

-BNG will abstain
-CC will vote no

CC's vote is counted as an abstention, as NCa's Yes vote neutralizes CC's no vote. A more accurate way of counting would split their vote more proportionally but it works as a first start.

First of all, here are the popular vote totals:

Yes: 44.7%
No: 44.9%
Abstain: 4.8%

So this government would technically lose if the vote was done based on the popular vote, albeit very narrowly and it is possible I have miscounted votes.

Anyways here is the map



Interestingly, only 5 autonomous communities have the Sánchez coalition winning, and of those only Asturias and the Basque Country have him above 50%. Sánchez is almost exclusively being carried by the huge margin in the Basque Country, getting 67% support though PNV-PSOE-UP and Bildu abstaining.

Maybe a "margins" map would be more interesting? Might make one later.

[Former President tack50]

Fun fact: the other Canarian nationalist in Congress (Pedro Quevedo, NCa), who is voting Yes on Sanchez, was born in nowhere other than Caracas, Venezuela

He came to Spain as a child in the early 1960s though; well before Chavismo was a thing, but still a fun statistic nontheless.

[Former President tack50]

So, with Garzón as potential minister I would like to ask: was there at any point in the past PCE minister in the government? Maybe in the 30s?

Yeah you have to go back to September 1936 to find PCE ministers again; after the cabinte reshuffle on the Republican government because of the start of the civil war.

But Garzon will be the first PCE minister during peace time I guess

[Former President tack50]

Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu (PNV) has just called for a snap Basque election scheduled for the 5th of April. He has called the election 6 months early in order to separate it from the widely expected Catalan regional elections. It remains to be seen what Galician premier Alberto Núñez Feijoo (PP) will do, but I think he will try and expire his full term instead of calling the Galician election early.

In any case the Basque elections will be an absolute snoozefest barring any unexpected changes during the campaign. The PNV government will be easily reelected and propped up by PSE. (currently PNV-PSE is 1 seat short of a majority, and have done deals with PP and UP in a case by case basis).

I can't even think of any questions to ask regarding the other parties. Anyways, here are some of the most interesting things that could theoretically happen, even if they are all quite unlikely (in order of very unlikely to essencially impossible):

-Vox getting a seat
-UP beating PSE
-PSE overtaking Bildu
-Cs getting a seat
-PNV getting an overall majority

Yeah they are all very unlikely, but still it's the closest things that could happen to make the election fun

Anyways, while it is very outdated here is the last poll I was able to find (from October 2019, in other words before even the November general election)

75 seats, 38 for a majority

PNV 40% (30)
EH Bildu: 22% (17)
PSE: 15% (12)
UP: 12% (9)
PP: 8% (7)
Vox: 1% (0)
Cs: 1% (0)

[Former President tack50]

Unlike the Basque election snoozefest, the Galician election is a pure tossup where everything can happen.

One of the big questions is whether or not Vox will get any seats. The even bigger question is whether PP keeps its overall majority or not. And if PP does lose its majority, whether the left gets one of its own.

Anyways, my ratings for the 3 elections:

Galicia: Tossup
Basque Country: Safe PNV
Catalonia: Tossup (safe secessionist majority; lean broad left majority)

[Former President tack50]

Is the BNG surge likely to be maintained until the election, or is there a chance it wears off?

I personally think it will be maintained. BNG is coming from a very low point, as in 2016 most of their electorate went to UP, that was when UP was at its national peak. With UP going down a not insignificant part of their electorate will go back to BNG.

UP also sold themselves as a Galician nationalist lite party of sorts that election, or to be more precise; had alliances with people that did; most notably long time former long time BNG leader Xose Manuel Beiras, leader of Anova (a BNG split who ran with IU in 2012, and with UP in 2016).

Similarly, I would expect Bildu to rise in the Basque Country as well, albeit to a lesser extent

[Former President tack50]

In other news, the government is preparing 2 new high profile bills.

The first one is a "Sexual Freedom Bill". Essencially, it is a big reform of all bills relating to rape, sexual assaults, gender violence and what not; including for example the inclusion of the always controversial "only yes is yes" principle (in other words, that explicit consent is needed in sexual relations).

Other changes include actually reducing the penalties for sexual abuse, adding gang rape, drugging a person to rape them and marital rape (this includes non-married couples) as aggravating circumstances and it will criminalize sexual street harrassing (the usual "yell sexist things at random women in the street" stuff)

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/14/actualidad/1581704814_345657.html

Another big bill will be a new education bill, this time called LOMLOE (Ley Orgánica de Modificación de la Ley Orgánica de Educación).

Apparently it will have 7 main points:

>Modify how people become teachers; including a mandatory internship lasting for one year
>Revise the public scolarships system, reducing the minimum GPA to get a scolarship to a 50/100 (the minimum passing grade in Spain in general) and lowering other requirements
>Implanting a mandatory subject of "Ethics and civic values"
>Parents get back a vote in School Councils
>A complete overhaul of the Vocational Training programs (Formación Profesional, FP)
>The Religion subject will no longer count towards a student's GPA
>Increasing the number of permanent teachers

As per usual, this is just another education bill rolling back whichever things the last education bill made. The biggest example here is the "Ethics and Civic Values" subject. It was first implemented by Zapatero as "Education for Citizenship". Then the Rajoy government deleted it and now Sánchez is bringing it back.

Since Spain became a democracy all PP and PSOE governments have passed at least one full overhaul of the education system. You have Gonzalez's LOGSE, Aznar's LOCE (never implemented), Zapatero's LOE, Rajoy's LOMCE and apparently now Sanchez's LOMLOE. Plus the Francoist bill from 1970.

In fact, had I been a year younger I would have studied under a whopping 4 different education bills! (LOGSE, LOCE, LOE and LOMCE); even if LOCE was never enacted.

https://electomania.es/lomloe-el-gobierno-prepara-una-nueva-ley-de-educacion/
https://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/Celaa-derogara-LOMCE-aprobara-Gobierno_0_997750543.html

[Former President tack50]

The national PP executive has decided to sack the Basque PP leader Alfonso Alonso. He was opposed to the deal with Cs and was well known for being a moderate inside PP. He will be replaced by Carlos Iturgaiz, a hardliner who was already Basque PP leader in the early 00s.

In any case, this is definitely bad news for PP's already limited appeal in the Basque Country. Why would Casado shoot himself in the foot in this way?

[Former President tack50]

Well, following from Velasco's question about "What are Arrimadas and the fake centrists doing?", it seems the Cs leadership election got a lot more interesting today.

Francisco Igea, leader of the party in Castille-Leon and well known critic of the leadership of Rivera and Arrimadas, has jumped into the leadership race. Igea became leader in Castille-Leon after winning an election that was rigged against him, and has been the highest profile critic in Cs. He even wanted a PSOE-Cs deal in Castille-Leon but the party shut him down.

Anyways, here is what Igea is proposing. The biggest difference is that Igea is defending a much more decentralized party model, where regional leaders have more autonomy. Currently Cs (alongside Vox) are the most centralized parties in Spain, where regional leaders are little more than puppets to the national leadership. Opponents claim this model is too inflexible and rigid, while supporters claim the alternative of high profile regional leaders (like the infamous PSOE barons) is worse. Igea is also against the PP-Cs deals that have been negotiated for the Basque Country, Catalonia and Galicia.

In a way, this primary reminds me slightly of the 2017 PSOE primary. All the Cs leadership is backing Arrimadas, while the bases (particularly in Catalonia) are supporting Igea. However, Igea is no Pedro Sánchez and I expect him to handily lose, in a scale of 80-20 or something like that; and Cs will slowly but surely be absorbed into PP.

Others have instead put the UP 2017 primary as the example, claiming that Igea is to Cs what Errejón was to UP.

https://elpais.com/politica/2020/02/23/actualidad/1582488811_600629.html

[Former President tack50]

Footballers will probably just dodge taxes. Both Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi (to put 2 famous examples) have been convicted of tax evasion, but were left free as they didn't have previous criminal records and their sentences were short.

Honestly I wish Messi and Ronaldo had gone behind bars for a while. It would have sent a powerful message to tax dodgers in the country; we should be more strict on that stuff.

I guess it also shows that I am not a soccer fan