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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 39104 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: April 28, 2019, 11:32:05 am »


Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

Fear is the best motivator. If if the map from earlier is still true, then the two provinces with the highest turnout increase from 2016 are Lerida and Gerona, which always vote separatist. The debate this entire campaign has been around Vox/C's/PP with their centralism, and Catalonia certainly doesn't wish to loose their federal rights.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #326 on: April 28, 2019, 11:35:03 am »





Also, whats going in valencia? Don't they have a provincial election concurent with the federal one today - so shouldn't they have the highest turnout?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #327 on: April 28, 2019, 11:45:07 am »


Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

Fear is the best motivator. If if the map from earlier is still true, then the two provinces with the highest turnout increase from 2016 are Lerida and Gerona, which always vote separatist. The debate this entire campaign has been around Vox/C's/PP with their centralism, and Catalonia certainly doesn't wish to loose their federal rights.

But wouldn't that fear translate into a vote boost for the separists, but also some spillover to the leftist parties who are willing to at least in practice grant at least a little more autonomy?
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tack50
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« Reply #328 on: April 28, 2019, 11:46:20 am »

Regional elections generally have lower turnout. No one who wasn't going to vote in the national election was going to vote in the regional one. So there is no reason for Valencia to increase more than everyone else.

Also, here's a historic analysis of early turnout reports



Seems like turnout will be somewhere around 2008 levels (74%), which is quite high for what we are used to in the last decade. Unfortunately, beating 2004 (76%) seems unlikely; let alone 1996 (77%) or 1982 (80%)
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bigic
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« Reply #329 on: April 28, 2019, 12:05:58 pm »



Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #330 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:09 pm »



Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox

I mean, we're talking about 60,000 voters. If Vox was putting their electoral future on Ceuta and Melilla then they may not even get into parliament at all.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #331 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:35 pm »

Seems like turnout will be somewhere around 2008 levels (74%), which is quite high for what we are used to in the last decade. Unfortunately, beating 2004 (76%) seems unlikely; let alone 1996 (77%) or 1982 (80%)

Well, 80% seems possible if there's no dropoff in the final 2 hours of voting. At least turnout Spain-wide (excl. Spains living abroad). Turnout incl. Spains abroad will be 2% lower than in mainland Spain.
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tack50
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« Reply #332 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:40 pm »



Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox

For Ceuta/Melilla it depends on who is turning out. The cities are polarized on religious lines I think, with muslims voting left (on local elections they have their own separate parties though) and non muslims voting right.

If it's a surge on muslims voting, I could actually see PSOE winning those seats on strong vote splits. It wouldn't be unprecedented, they came close in Melilla in 2008 after all (and that's with no vote splitting)

If it's a surge on non-muslims (or even just the surge being equally distributed) then good news for Vox.
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rc18
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« Reply #333 on: April 28, 2019, 12:18:25 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...
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bigic
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« Reply #334 on: April 28, 2019, 12:21:55 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

I know that, but according to recent polling Vox has pretty big support in these two cities (in Ceuta it's even first), so maybe it's an indication of a wider trend in Spain.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #335 on: April 28, 2019, 12:25:08 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

I know that, but according to recent polling Vox has pretty big support in these two cities (in Ceuta it's even first), so maybe it's an indication of a wider trend in Spain.


Except that in the most conservative parts of Spain, where Vox would be expected to do well, the turnout bump isn't quite as strong as in the autonomous African cities. It seems that, as with Catalonia, it's a local phenomenon and not something that is being replicated elsewhere. The turnout is definitely higher across the board, but what makes those cities unique is that it is up more than in the conservative heartland or the southern coastal provinces.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #336 on: April 28, 2019, 12:27:50 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 12:31:34 pm by Walmart_shopper »

I'm still not sure that it's accurate to say that Catalonia's turnout bomb is a separatist thing. I think it's more of a just Catatonian thing. Barcelona, which is not known for its rabid separatism, has a turnout spike equal to the region as a whole. I'm sure that we'll see separatist parties do well. I just wouldn't be surprised if the left wing parties also get a boost from the Catalonian vote.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #337 on: April 28, 2019, 12:29:46 pm »

Are there going to be any exit polls?
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Mike88
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« Reply #338 on: April 28, 2019, 12:44:36 pm »


I don't think so. Only polls done during the last few days. That's what i recall Tack saying.

According to RTVE, 27 million people cast a ballot. A record number.

I was really off regarding turnout... Yikes.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #339 on: April 28, 2019, 12:48:40 pm »

Can someone explain the demographics of Vox voters and how that's different than PP voters?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #340 on: April 28, 2019, 12:51:09 pm »

Can someone explain the demographics of Vox voters and how that's different than PP voters?

Not much methinks. At least in their breakout election, Vox Votes correlated to PP+C's support, with a few exceptions in the migrant heavy areas.
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Umengus
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« Reply #341 on: April 28, 2019, 12:57:09 pm »

- Podemos: 14,5% (46 députés)
- PSOE: 25,5% (105)
- C’s: 15% (51)
- PP: 19,3% (70)
- Vox: 13% (42)

http://electomania.es/exitpanel28a/


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #342 on: April 28, 2019, 12:57:10 pm »

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Mike88
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« Reply #343 on: April 28, 2019, 01:03:19 pm »

According to the polls, no bloc has anything close to a majority.
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Umengus
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« Reply #344 on: April 28, 2019, 01:03:46 pm »

Gad tracking poll

PSOE - 116-121
PP - 69-73
C's - 48-49
PODEM - 42-45
VOX - 36-38
ERC - 13-14
JXC - 5
Front Republicà - 1
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tack50
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« Reply #345 on: April 28, 2019, 01:06:33 pm »

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate
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Kamala Harris is the REAL DEAL
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« Reply #346 on: April 28, 2019, 01:08:46 pm »

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #347 on: April 28, 2019, 01:08:53 pm »

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate

Those MOE's are huge O_o
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jeron
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« Reply #348 on: April 28, 2019, 01:10:19 pm »

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate

That is because of the electoral system

Those MOE's are huge O_o
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #349 on: April 28, 2019, 01:11:08 pm »



SocioMétrica/El Español has a majority in the MOE for PSOE+C's, and realistically there is a chance for PSOE+Podemos minority here
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