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August 24, 2019, 02:55:27 pm
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 39751 times)
tack50
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« Reply #50 on: April 27, 2019, 12:16:54 pm »

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?
If any of our Spanish posters could give us a brief overview of all regionalists that are expected to win seats ("ERC: left-wing, Catalan nationalist, could/could not support PSOE" etc) that would be much appreciated as well. It's very unclear to me. Are there any that could provide support to a right-wing government?

Here you go. All chances are assuming a PSOE-UP government.

For PSOE-Cs, no one would support that except NA+, CC, PRC and maybe Compromís (this last one is very unlikely though).

For PP-Cs-Vox, only NA+ would support that.

Certain to get seats

ERC: Left wing, Catalan secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean no). Expected seats: 10-15

JxCat: Centre-right, Catalan secessionist. Probably would not support PSOE, but not 100% certain. Expected seats: 4-8

PNV: Centre-right. Basque nationalist. Almost 100% certain that they would support PSOE. Expected seats: 6

Compromís: Left wing. Valencian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 3-5

Bildu: Left wing. Basque secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean yes personally but very debatable). Expected seats: 2-4

Navarra Suma: Right wing. Navarra regionalist. Coalition between PP, Cs and UPN in Navarra, but all seats will go to UPN because of how the list was made. Expected seats: 2. Almost 100% certain not to support Sánchez.

May or may not enter

BNG: Left wing. Galician secessionist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

CC: Centre-right. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

FR: Far left. Catalan secessionist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

NCa: Centre-left. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

PRC: Centre-left, but quite populist. Cantabria regionalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1
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tack50
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« Reply #51 on: April 27, 2019, 02:06:56 pm »

Is there any 'seat calculators'/estimators' out there? Like I said on my Twitter, D'Hondt ends up apportioning seats in a Tangential way (Hard to win low%, easy to win high%) but the 'midpoint' of those Tangential functions differs based on overall parties and your national distribution. I have a good feeling that the Right vote is going cut itself to pieces considering Vox's Andalusia numbers correlated linearly with PP+C's numbers, but I would like to confirm/get an estimate with a calculator.

After a quick research, I was able to find this, which somehow gives a rough estimation. It only allows you to change the main 5 parties and fixes the "others" percentage at 6% (which is too low in my opinion). Still, I guess it's good enough for a rough estimate.

https://politibot.io/juega-a-repartir-escanos-asi-se-asignaran-segun-el-voto-el-28a/
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tack50
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« Reply #52 on: April 27, 2019, 02:11:47 pm »

Ok, so whats the seat target figure for combined right wing parties that gets Casado in as PM?  Somewhere in the low 170's?

For PP-Cs-Vox, it's 176 (ie an absolute majority) or bust. 174 if you want to be technical and count NA+ separately.

They can't depend on any regional parties whatsoever, not even CC (which is usually very happy about making deals with PP!)

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tack50
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« Reply #53 on: April 28, 2019, 05:33:14 am »

This is interesting (according to me).
In the 2015 elections the left (PSOE, IU and Podemos later om UP) got 161 seats and in 2016 they got 156 seats and Electopanel predicts that the will get 162 this time. Left regionalist parties (ERC, EHB and Compromis) got 11 seats in 2015, 11 in 2016 and 19 this time (Compromis is standing alone this time). The left in total got 172 seats in 2015, 167 in 2016 and is predicted to get 171 this time. Not much change in three elections!

The right (PP and C's and this time Vox and NS) got 166 seats in 2015, 163 in 2016 and is predicted to get 169. Not much change.

Centreright regionalist parties (JPC earlier DEL and CDC, PNV and CC) got 15 seats in 2015, 14 in 2016 and is predicted to get 11 this time. Not much change there either.


To be fair 2015 and 2016 were 2 back to back elections so no surprise that there wasn't much change. The fact that 2019 may also be similar to those 2 is uncommon, but not exactly unprecedented.

There are other examples of 2 consecutive elections having similar results like 1977-1979 or 2004-2008.
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tack50
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« Reply #54 on: April 28, 2019, 05:53:06 am »

Also, regarding where to watch the results, I'd personally recommend the private websites (El País or El Mundo; or really any Spanish news site) over the official website

The main issue is that for some reason the official websites for results separate the results of Podemos proper and their alliances. So this time you get "Podemos-IU-Equo" and "ECP-Guanyem el canvi" (in Catalonia) which is misleading.
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tack50
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« Reply #55 on: April 28, 2019, 07:23:33 am »

So if i’m reading the turnout numbers right, turnout is up most in both right-leaning regions (Castille,Valencia etc) and separatist leaning ones (Catalonia, Basque Country). Not so much in places like Andalusia. Does not seem great for PSOE?

Turnout is up all across Spain. However the thing is that while turnout is up massively in Catalonia (in many places matching the turnout from the regional elections!), in the rest of Spain the increase is a more moderate one of about 4%



Within Catalonia it looks like a secessionist surge more than a unionist one, judging by the fact that Girona and Lleida are the provinces with higher turnout

Also, this preliminary turnout report is the highest since 1993 and 2nd highest in history. Turnout may well reach the mid 70s.
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tack50
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« Reply #56 on: April 28, 2019, 07:31:41 am »

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Finally, decided to compare a rich neighbourhood in Madrid (Salamanca) to a poor/working class one (Villa-Vallecas). Turnout seems to have increased equally on both.

Just what we needed, more uncertainty Tongue
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tack50
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« Reply #57 on: April 28, 2019, 11:19:44 am »


Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!
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tack50
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« Reply #58 on: April 28, 2019, 11:46:20 am »

Regional elections generally have lower turnout. No one who wasn't going to vote in the national election was going to vote in the regional one. So there is no reason for Valencia to increase more than everyone else.

Also, here's a historic analysis of early turnout reports



Seems like turnout will be somewhere around 2008 levels (74%), which is quite high for what we are used to in the last decade. Unfortunately, beating 2004 (76%) seems unlikely; let alone 1996 (77%) or 1982 (80%)
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tack50
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« Reply #59 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:40 pm »



Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox

For Ceuta/Melilla it depends on who is turning out. The cities are polarized on religious lines I think, with muslims voting left (on local elections they have their own separate parties though) and non muslims voting right.

If it's a surge on muslims voting, I could actually see PSOE winning those seats on strong vote splits. It wouldn't be unprecedented, they came close in Melilla in 2008 after all (and that's with no vote splitting)

If it's a surge on non-muslims (or even just the surge being equally distributed) then good news for Vox.
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tack50
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« Reply #60 on: April 28, 2019, 01:06:33 pm »

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate
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tack50
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« Reply #61 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:15 pm »

Here's Electomania's "Exit Panel" for what it's worth. Definitely an outlier compared to everyone else

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tack50
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« Reply #62 on: April 28, 2019, 01:20:38 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
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tack50
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« Reply #63 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:15 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

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tack50
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« Reply #64 on: April 28, 2019, 01:28:29 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?

No, because Cs is very against that. If Cs makes a 180 then yeah, it's possible; but I think Cs has gone too far to justify a 180
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tack50
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« Reply #65 on: April 28, 2019, 01:32:45 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises
In which direction?

Compromís (Valencian nationalists) much higher than expected
Cs MUCH lower than expected (like half as much)
Vox overperforming
PP and PSOE slightly underperforming
Podemos slightly overperforming
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tack50
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« Reply #66 on: April 28, 2019, 01:43:27 pm »


https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es

Don't expect anything until 15 minutes from now though
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tack50
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« Reply #67 on: April 28, 2019, 01:47:17 pm »

Map of the election according to IMOP-Cadena COPE's exit poll



Probably hilariously inaccurate, but worth sharing. Interesting to see that Vox wins only 1 province but that said province is not Almería but Valencia!
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tack50
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« Reply #68 on: April 28, 2019, 01:53:54 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

Not that surprising. From my analysis I did a while back, the left and the right have been roughly tied in Galicia since the early 00s.

However, it didn't appear that way because PP was united (and still is for the most part) while the left was split between BNG and PSOE.

It's not even the first time it happens; in 2004 the left and the right tied in Galicia and in 2008 the left won by 1 seat (11 for PP; 10 for PSOE and 2 for BNG)
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tack50
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« Reply #69 on: April 28, 2019, 02:00:34 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

On top of inmigration being a huge issue over there for obvious reasons, they also have very high military populations
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tack50
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« Reply #70 on: April 28, 2019, 02:10:07 pm »

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes
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tack50
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« Reply #71 on: April 28, 2019, 04:00:02 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

Not that surprising. From my analysis I did a while back, the left and the right have been roughly tied in Galicia since the early 00s.

However, it didn't appear that way because PP was united (and still is for the most part) while the left was split between BNG and PSOE.

It's not even the first time it happens; in 2004 the left and the right tied in Galicia and in 2008 the left won by 1 seat (11 for PP; 10 for PSOE and 2 for BNG)

Actually, I'm a bit curious about this. Is there any particular reason as to why Galicia has been trending left?

I guess the cities became gradually more left wing while the PP leaning countryside became more right wing has been losing population? Also maybe something about nationalism?

Worth noting that the trend was mostly in the 80s and 90s; it has been quite stable between 2000 and 2016
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tack50
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« Reply #72 on: April 28, 2019, 04:01:14 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.
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tack50
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« Reply #73 on: April 28, 2019, 04:20:37 pm »

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).
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tack50
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« Reply #74 on: April 28, 2019, 04:32:31 pm »

Worth noting that at this point PSOE+Cs do add up to a majority (180 seats). Of course with Rivera's rethoric during the campaign and the fact that they are so close to PP and might be tempted to "go for the kill" a deal between the 2 is unlikely, but it's a possibility.
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