Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Man C's really blew it. First they try to reorient hard to the right, and lose their centrist voters. After realizing said voters were far more numerous then their elected politicians would suggest, the return to the center. But now they lose the nationalist-right wing of their party who jumped for the now appealing parties. Meanwhile the centrist type of voters won't come back because C's factional problems are now laid wide for all to see.

[Oryxslayer]

Heh.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1191750268028891137

[Oryxslayer]

GESOP for El Periòdic D'Andorra

PSOE 26.6% 115-120
PP 19% 80-85
VOX 15% 50-55
UP 12.8% 34-38
Cs 8.2% 13-17
ERC 3.6% 14-15
MP 2.8% 2-4
JxCAT1.5% 6-7
CUP 1.5% 4-5
Others 9% 14-17

https://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/sondeo-elecciones-generales-noviembre-2019-primera-entrega.html

What government could possibly be formed under that result?

If PSOE and Podemos can sort out their differences this time, the could probably get someone to abstain and allow them to form a coalition or a confidence and supply govt. Nobody's going to be abstaining for a govt with VOX, so the PP+VOX+C's (if C's is still around...) needs to be north of 170 to have a real shot at power.

[Oryxslayer]

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength  

More the fact the C's failed to commit to any side, and their triangulation was laid bare for all to see. So the Castilian nationalist vote, which was previous a lock for the oranges, is now in Vox's camp. The only difference for these voter groups between the two parties is really that Vox says the quiet part load - go back a few pages and you will see the voter demographics between the two parties are more then correlated.

In fact here's a  little spoiler from my twitter: excusing the C's home base of Catalonia and the far south where  the comparatively minor tenant of Anti-Arab politics play well, the votes are near enough to a perfect correlation. Especially in populated Madrid.

[Oryxslayer]

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength  

More the fact the C's failed to commit to any side, and their triangulation was laid bare for all to see. So the Castilian nationalist vote, which was previous a lock for the oranges, is now in Vox's camp. The only difference for these voter groups between the two parties is really that Vox says the quiet part load - go back a few pages and you will see the voter demographics between the two parties are more then correlated.

In fact here's a  little spoiler from my twitter: excusing the C's home base of Catalonia and the far south where  the comparatively minor tenant of Anti-Arab politics play well, the votes are near enough to a perfect correlation. Especially in populated Madrid.

Can you explain a little bit what's happening in this map? I don't really get it.

Sure. If Vox and C's votes were perfectly correlated last election, for every C's vote in a province there would be 0.65 Vox votes. In the majority of the nation, there is very little  deviation from this correlation, especially in Madrid where they both won a bunch of votes. Only in the C's heartland of Catalonia, the South Coast/Enclaves where anti-arab politics is an actual thing, and strangely inner Castile-La Mancha, were there significant deviations. The expected perfect correlation holds true because the wealthy middle-aged male who holds centralist views was the base of both parties.

I made this map because there's going to be a lot of takes in a few days on "the next casualty of the  populist surge" when in reality reactionary than populist. These Castilian Nationalist/Centralist voters have always been there, it just took their old vehicle of C's collapsing on all sides for them to migrate to a party that said the quiet part loud.

[Oryxslayer]

So I'm not going to make a prediction but I will engage in a bit of metagaming here. Lets say PSOE+Podemos+MP and PP+VOX+C's are both around 150, but the  left is a bit higher. This is what polls say right now, and unless there is a massive swing we will end up both near parity - just like back in 2015/16. There are problems with both of these govts, and their ability to reach the 176 threshold is tenuous. The right needs to probably hit 170ish combined to make such a govt work because VOX is a poison pill. The left would need to recruit some Catalan support which probably makes it also impossible, and that's ignoring the vendettas between Iglesias and Sanchez.

So now we are left with cross-block govts, and PSOE should get the most seats overall so they will get the nod. Both options are PSOE minority govts with abstention: PSOE+Podemos+C's, and PSOE+PP. The latter would be solely to put to rest the govt crisis, even though it opens a bigger door for Vox. the former would only work if C's is committed to their Macronist triangulation...which is possible since the Centralist/Castilian Nats self-jettisoned for Vox. C's is dying and maybe such a move allows then to survive and carve out a centrist niche...but C's agreeing to support the same Govt as Podemos is presently unthinkable, so PSOE+PP is therefore the most likely. That's where it stands right now, and it's all very sad because PSOE traded in it's beautiful results from April for this indecision purely because of egos.

[Oryxslayer]

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

[Oryxslayer]

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+

Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that last time the first results were overwhelmed with the basque country vote. They counted far faster and were  overrepresented in the  early totals. Quite funny considering the PNV and Bildu were being projected at way too many seats before the results came down to earth.

[Oryxslayer]

Madrid seat projection - Combined left loses one, combined right gains one. Vox, PP, and MP are the gainers.

[Oryxslayer]

Vox could win Murcia and Ceuta city, according to the TVE poll.

I'm going to be shocked if Murcia and the Enclaves are not green. Murcia especially was barely PSOE last time around, and VOX wasn't that far behind PP. the C's -> Vox vote transfer is probably enough to put theme on top on its own. Question is if there is anything else  like Toledo or Almeria, where they ran good last time.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is Murcia so rightwing?

One of the few places immigration control actually moves voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Vox leading in Murcia in case anyone missed that.

[Oryxslayer]

The sad thing is if you are Sanchez, this was a good election in your warped mind. You lose little seats, Podemos gets punished, and the combined right is near exactly the same as last time. Govt formation this time can only occur with cross bloc abstentions, be that PP or C's - which means Podemos  Coalition is automatically out. But these numbers are far more unstable.

[Oryxslayer]

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

[Oryxslayer]

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans and Canarians, in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?

This govt, well this govt with less individual actors, was also an option back in April, it was technically the govt Sanchez and Podemos were  negotiating for. But there were problems with Bildu, and of course Podemos vs PSOE was an issue.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly, CpM looks to have gotten most of their votes from C's, though you never know with such a small community. But since turnout dropped, it's hard to imagine a massive trade of new voters and previous voters. Perhaps C's voters ended up repaying CpM for the local govt?

[Oryxslayer]

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns.  

Perhaps I am too cynical, but believe that this is what Sanchez tacitly wants: UP refusing to budge, so he can use the excuse to pass the Investure with help of Casado (who has already indicated tonight he is open to talks with PSOE) under the pretense of "creating a stable government in the national interest" or some bubbly statement like that.

If he wanted to govern with UP he would have done so. They agreed on almost everything, the policy paper, Podemos Ministers in Government, Iglesias out of Government, and then he just suddenly ends the talks. It just does not sound to me like someone who wants to govern with Podemos. Rather their marginalisation and delegitimisation seems his goal. But who knows. Speculation on my part. Its not like Podemos is entirely innocent in that whole saga either.

The talks collapsed because the negotiations between PSOE and Podemos revealed that Sanchez and  Iglesias's egos were mutually incompatible. Both believed they had more to sell than the  other, and as any backing down could be interpreted as weakness. Even if this was ignored, it would come up again, and again in the future. There is a lot of pride here: one is the leader a long-lasting party who successfully utilized the grassroots to counter-coup his rivals. The other is a personalistic campaigner who heads an insurgent party with the goal of disrupting the old establishment. If neither was going to give way, then both were fated to go their separate ways. If Casado is to back PSOE's govt, it's because he is (and was recognized to be by everyone  last cycle) far more malleable and less personalistic than his rivals.  

[Oryxslayer]

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide.  

[Oryxslayer]

Did Vox manage to win some traditional working class areas that normally go to PSOE like Trump, Le Pen, Salvini, etc.

Someone with better knowledge of this can enumerate more, but Vox is a different flavor then those guys. Vox is more reactionary and hearkening back to a 'glorious past' during the francoist regime, whereas those guys are arguing to build something something new. They are approaching a problem and say "we need new ideas" Vox looks at a problem and says "we need old ideas." It's been mentioned before that migration is a minor tenant on Vox's platform, the Falagist stuff, Castilian Nationalism, Centralism, and anti-Catalan rhetoric moves more voters. This all leads to Vox's (originally C's) voters being more wealthy, either Sub/Exurban or living in the exclusive Old City core, Middle-Aged, and Male, according to demographic surveys and previous exit polls. The only part of that list which is shared with the 'WWC' stereotype is Male.

[Oryxslayer]

It's very interesting how income is a significant predictor of left/right vote, even when accounting for Vox - the La Moraleja result is just startling...
Here in Italy for instance wealthy neighbourhoods in big cities have gone hard towards PD in the last year.


What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Income/class tends to be the superior indicator of partisan lines in those countries with a 'recent' authoritarian past. Those who are wealthy got their wealth during the regime and are more likely to have some fond memories or at least rose-tinted glasses in regards to it's failings. If you were not wealthy or successful during the regime, you look back on it's failings much harsher, and gravitate towards those who carry on the tradition of the opposition from those years. Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards. This is a simplistic  explanation why Madrid is a Right stronghold despite this decades global trend that has seen the youth increasingly urbanize and dominate cities, Madrid boomed during Franco's years.

[Oryxslayer]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

[Oryxslayer]

If Podemos and PSOE actually have a deal then it still needs one of the following to at minimum abstain:

-PP
-C's
-Catalan Parties
-Mutually incompatible parties like NA+, CCa, and El Bildu

PSOE+Podemos+Mas+EAJ/PNV+BNQ+TE!+PRC+El Bildu = 173

Which you know wouldn't be a problem if we had this deal last time -_-

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1212850791477850112

It could be an outlier, but still.

RIP C's, they flew too close to the sun and now are  six feet under.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess it is likely the pro independence get the majority of seats?

Yes,it's not hard for the  pro-indie parties to get a majority presently. The electoral system and the party divisions (more non-indie parties than indie) mean that the Indie parties easily sweep the rural parts of the province, locking out almost all of the non-indies. The non-indie parties divide their vote, denying themselves seats and allowing the larger nationalists parties to gain representation.