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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 51768 times)
Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #575 on: April 29, 2019, 07:06:46 am »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.

Yeah but Catalan nationalism, at least at the leadership level, used to be dominated by a more bourgeois nationalist aspiration of deep seated paranoia of the central state as a tax collector. Rivera was carpet bagging but his assertion that Pujol, Torra and a few other Catalan nationalist grandees from the Convergencia side have a structurally xenophobic outlook on Andalucians and other Spanish communities is not that far from the truth.

If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.

Yes, and that's why outside of bougie Catalonian circles the independence movement is not viewed sympathetically and why it's easy for mainstream Spanish parties to brush them off or toss their orders in jail or whatever. Nobody actually believes that the plight of the Catalonian could possibly ever be anything close to the plight of the Palestinian or the Tibetan or the Timorese, so people take it as a kind of charming LARP that rich Spanish people do to pass the tim
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Simfan34
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« Reply #576 on: April 29, 2019, 08:09:22 am »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.

...he's willing to partner with Vox?!
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #577 on: April 29, 2019, 08:26:38 am »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.

...he's willing to partner with Vox?!

Lol no. That only means he is willing to talk to Cs (and maybe even PP). But PSOE-PP is not happening and neither is PSOE-Cs I think.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #578 on: April 29, 2019, 08:30:52 am »

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #579 on: April 29, 2019, 08:46:18 am »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.

...he's willing to partner with Vox?!

Lol no. That only means he is willing to talk to Cs (and maybe even PP). But PSOE-PP is not happening and neither is PSOE-Cs I think.

Well obviously not, but "cordon sanitaire" usually does refer to far-right parties.
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« Reply #580 on: April 29, 2019, 08:48:56 am »

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.

Why is Murcia so rightwing compared to neighbouring areas? It was a Republican stronghold during the civil war
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Velasco
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« Reply #581 on: April 29, 2019, 08:50:37 am »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 09:52:28 am by Velasco »

 Sánchez said last night that he's not going to treat Rivera in the same way the Cs leader treated him. Anyway Cs came very close to become the first party of the Spanish Right. Rivera said that he will be in opposition and I heard the same thing to Inés Arrimadas today.

Why has Catalonia and País Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.
If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.

I think Catalans clearly favoured the parties advocating dialogue and pragmatism; to put it in a simplistic manner ERC on the separatist camp, PSC-PSOE on the opposite and ECP in the middle ground. The massive mobilization of Catalan voters, especially in the countryside pro-independence areas, led to an increase of the Catalan nationalist vote in general elections: ERC+JxCAT+FR got 39.4% last night, ERC+CDC got 32.1% in 2016. Keep in mind that Catalan voters behave differently depending on the type of elections. For instance there are ERC voters in Catalan elections that can flip to ECP or even PSC in general elections, as well as it can happen in the opposite way. The image of the imprisoned martyr is very powerful, indeed. Regarding Gabriel Rufián I despise him (childish, provocateur) but he moderated his tone during the campaign. Quim Torra is only a puppet of Carles Puigdemont lacking of political stature; his incompetence as premier and and his past xenophobic statements are deplorable. JxCAT is indeed a mess and there is a pragmatic wing in the old Convergéncia (Marta Pascal, maybe Artur Mas) that is waiting to the next local and EP elections. Depending on results, there could be a reconfiguration of Catalan nationalism...
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Velasco
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« Reply #582 on: April 29, 2019, 11:51:10 am »

Worth noting the CIS was spotted on, despite the heavy and somewhat justified criticism to the methodology implemented by its director José Felix Tezanos

CIS mega-survey released today. Even though the vote estimation is controversial, there is a lot of interesting data. The sample size is massive and there are seat projections for every province, which must be taken with a grain of salt but give some clues on a number of issues (for instance, the geographical distribution of the Vox support)

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #583 on: April 29, 2019, 01:11:25 pm »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #584 on: April 29, 2019, 01:18:53 pm »

Vox's best provinces, ie over 13% - were the two African cities, Castilla la Mancha (but not Leon, which is a bit surprising), Murcia, Andalusia and Madrid. Not too many other European Right Wing Populists do that well in the capital city...

I'm actually a little bit surprised by Extremadura though. Going by the "dying rural town" narrative, it is almost the first place I would think of, but Vox were really average there (proving that reality is often more complicated than "the narrative" I guess).

Also, I'm going to claim my Kudos for being just about the only person to suggest that Vox weren't necesarilly going to outperform the polls Tongue
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« Reply #585 on: April 29, 2019, 01:51:12 pm »

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.

I'm assuming this map is by region/autonomous community rather than province? Otherwise it's odd that every province in the same community has the same shade.
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YL
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« Reply #586 on: April 29, 2019, 01:52:28 pm »

El País municipality map

I see Vox carried a few tiny places, but also a handful of bigger ones, e.g. El Ejido near Almería.

Are most of the places C's carried wealthy suburban type places?
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #587 on: April 29, 2019, 01:56:25 pm »

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.

I'm assuming this map is by region/autonomous community rather than province? Otherwise it's odd that every province in the same community has the same shade.

Yes, this is by Autonomous community even though the provinces are marked. Mostly because it's easier and faster to take notes of 19 results than 52.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #588 on: April 29, 2019, 02:01:14 pm »

El País municipality map

I see Vox carried a few tiny places, but also a handful of bigger ones, e.g. El Ejido near Almería.

Are most of the places C's carried wealthy suburban type places?

Pretty much all the municipalities Cs carried are suburban/ex-urban places around Madrid, so I would say yes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #589 on: April 29, 2019, 03:16:31 pm »

What are the chances of him being able to pass the same budget.  My understanding is if all the parties voted the same way as earlier this year it would be 171 so 5 seats short, but of the two new parties, Cantabria Party and Compromis, those are both centre-left so would probably vote in favour so 173.  Will Sanchez have to tweak it or are there the additional votes to win.  I am guessing the minimum wage hike is fairly popular.  Not sure how popular taxing the banks or taxing the rich more is.  I know it is very popular in some countries, but less so in others so where does Spain stand.  Are a lot upset about income inequality thus want the rich to pay more or is there a fear higher taxes on the rich will just cause them to move to other countries?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #590 on: April 29, 2019, 03:59:12 pm »

Too lazy to find this, but what places with more than say 15000 inhabitants had the biggest right wing and biggest left wing majorities, outside of the Catalonia and Basque regions.
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Velasco
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« Reply #591 on: April 29, 2019, 04:51:56 pm »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 11:21:27 pm by Velasco »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 

The map is very interesting, although possibly misleading in what regards Basque Country and Catalonia. As you say peripheral natiinalists made gains at the expense of the Left. This swing must be ECP loses to ERC and FR in Catalonia and UP loses to EH Bildu in Basque Country (EH Bildu and GBai Navarre). Podemos caught tactical vote from peripheral nationalists in 2015 and 2016. However the Spanish Right was decimated in both regions and the colour blue looks strange in their provinces. If you treat peripheral nationalists as a separate bloc (it's a correct approach, imo), maybe you should reflect that in the map. It's only my opinion, of course.

Regarding Balearic Islands, I think there is no swing to the right:

In 2016 PP+Cs got 49.7% and Podemos-IU-MES+PSOE got 45 5%

In 2019 PP+Cs+Vox got 45.5% and PSOE+UP got 44.2%. MES regionalists left UP and allied with ERC getting 4.9%.
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« Reply #592 on: April 29, 2019, 05:46:50 pm »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 

The map is very interesting, although possibly misleading in what regards Basque Country and Catalonia. As you say peripheral natiinalists made gains at the expense of the Left. This swing must be ECP loses to ERC and FR in Catalonia and UP loses to EH Bildu in Basque Country (EH Bildu and GBai Navarre). Podemos caught tactical vote from peripheral nationalists in 2015 and 2016. However the Spanish Right was decimated in both regions and the colour blue looks strange in their provinces. If you treat peripheral nationalists as a separate bloc (it's a correct approach, imo), maybe you should reflect that in the map. It's only my opinion, of course.

Regarding Balearic Uslands, I think there is no swing to the right:

In 2016 PP+Cs got 49.7% and Podemos-IU-MES+PSOE got 45 5%

In 2019 PP+Cs+Vox got 45.5% and PSOE+UP got 44.2%. MES regionalists left UP and allied with ERC getting 4.9%.

Yep the baleres is a mistake. Thanks for catching it. I treat secessionists/regionalists as a seperate block with color on my other maps, it just gets harder to calculate swing with three factions involved.
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Velasco
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« Reply #593 on: April 30, 2019, 01:55:25 am »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 05:05:51 pm by Velasco »

What are the chances of him being able to pass the same budget.  My understanding is if all the parties voted the same way as earlier this year it would be 171 so 5 seats short, but of the two new parties, Cantabria Party and Compromis, those are both centre-left so would probably vote in favour so 173.  Will Sanchez have to tweak it or are there the additional votes to win.  I am guessing the minimum wage hike is fairly popular.  Not sure how popular taxing the banks or taxing the rich more is.  I know it is very popular in some countries, but less so in others so where does Spain stand.  Are a lot upset about income inequality thus want the rich to pay more or is there a fear higher taxes on the rich will just cause them to move to other countries?

It's too early to say, because the upcoming elections in May (EP, regional and local) will delay coalition building and creation of majorities. In any case, economic measures like increase of minimum wage or bank and corporate taxes could be easily supported by ERC or EH Bildu on an ideological basis. The question is whether these Catalan and Basque nationalists are willing to negotiate and pass the budget. Their attitude might be different in the new parliament (there are signs pointing to this, but it's too early), increasing the government's room for manoeuvre. At this point it seems the possibility of a PSOE-Cs is ruled out and a PSOE-Podemos agreement is very certain. However Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias have differences on the type of agreement. Sánchez prefers confidence and supply and Iglesias demands a coalition government. Negotiations between PSOE and Podemos will be long. On the other hand, the political situation in Catalonia and the trial of the separatist leaders add a ood deal of complication. As for the question on income inequality, one of the main effects of the financial crisis is that Spain has became one of the most unequal countries in Europe. The increase of inequality and job insecurity are behind the protests in May 2011 (15M movement) and the surge of Podemos in 2014. So there's some unrest regarding these questions in the Spanish society, yes. On the other hand, the fear that higher taxes make the rich move to other countries is more extended among rightwing voters. Also, the Vox surge is connected with the unrest created by the crisis in Catalonia. We have a big mess here...

Too lazy to find this, but what places with more than say 15000 inhabitants had the biggest right wing and biggest left wing majorities, outside of the Catalonia and Basque regions.

There are a lot of municipalities with more than 15000 inhabitants. If I find a list or something, I'll share it here. I'm about to calculate bloc results in the municipalities over 125000. Maybe I'll make a map or something within a few days.

Regarding rightwing municipalities, maybe you should go for the regions and provinces that lean more to the right. For instance, the region of Murcia and Castilla La Mancha.

 Also, you should take a look in affluent municipalities NW of Madrid like Pozuelo de Alarcón:

PP 29.7%, Cs 24.8%, Vox 19.8%, PSOE 16.8%, UP 7%

The municipalities located south of Madrid are working class and lean to the left.

Parla: PSOE 32.1%, UP 19.7%, Cs 19.5%, Vox 14%, PP 10.3%

Former coal mining towns in Asturias are very leftwing

Mieres: PSOE 37.9%, UP 25.9%, PP 13.2%, Cs 11.8%, Vox 6.8%
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« Reply #594 on: April 30, 2019, 03:38:44 am »

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.

The guy's been in charge for a few months, that isn't a lot of time to fix a party like PP that's still recovering from scandals and everything.

Frankly I think had his opponent won the leadership election last year they would have done even worse, and maybe have finished behind C's and lost even more votes to Vox.

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.
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« Reply #595 on: April 30, 2019, 04:57:49 am »


I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done.

Sorry, but I don't get it. Casado was unable to contain the loses to Vox despite his desperate attempts. Neither the radical turn to the right nor the calls for tactical voting worked. Apparently the radicalization had a double perverse effect: radicalized voters preferred the original (Vox) to the copy (Casado's PP) and more moderate voters went to Cs. Certainly fixing a party like the PP is not an easy task. Its process of decomposition accelerated after the loss of power. However, I'd say ideological radicalization and depuration of professionally comptent cadres closer to Sáez de Santamaría were not wise measures. Casado has proved to be too anxious and hyperactive, flaws that make him very prone to gaffes. Despite his supporters say he's been too little time in office as leader of the PP, I think it's been enough to reveal his limitations. At least his rival in the leadership contest was efficient and hard working...
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« Reply #596 on: April 30, 2019, 05:11:23 am »

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.
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« Reply #597 on: April 30, 2019, 05:12:55 am »

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.
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« Reply #598 on: April 30, 2019, 05:21:36 am »

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.

Saenz de Santamaria would not have put utter blockheads like the head of list for the Madrid Community in such prominent positions for a start. And then let's also remember that PSOE have swung leftwards in recent years under Sanchez's stewardship. THe only reason people are screaming "the center has won" is because of Casado's abandoning of the center, making Sanchez-led PSOE the candidate of normalcy.

Sure long term PP to C's transfers is to be expected but this was a car crash campaign from Casado. THe dude litterally sold himself on the same terms as Rivera in relation to peripheral nationalists as his selling point and all Rivera had to do is just produce a headline with "PP in pact with PNV" at the debate. Had the debate been more centred on economics and in particular pensions (which is what the PP centrists are very good at arguing) he could have presented Rajoy's record...which whilst I do not condone, is statistically at least more credible than PP's record on corruption, social issues and peripheral nationalisms.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #599 on: April 30, 2019, 05:24:06 am »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 05:30:06 am by tack50 »

Just did trend maps by autonomous community. These reflect the "PVI" change (sort of) of all autonomous communities. Again, you can click to zoom in.

I decided to split 0-2,5 and 2,5-5 to try to distinguish which were statistical oddities and which reflect real trends. Again PNV/JxCat are included in the right and ERC/Bildu/BNG/etc on the left.





The map with regional parties included is definitely striking, with pretty much all of southern Spain moving hard to the right.

The most surprising PVI result? Andalucia actually voted slightly to the right of Spain at large! (Right+1 PVI without nationalists; EVEN if you include them). First time ever that Andalucia does this. In only 8 years Andalucia has gone from Left+14 to Right+1! A 15 point trend in 8 years!

I imagine in the Spanish equivalent to Atlas we would now be having a discussion about "Andalucia racist rural hicks" vs "Rich Snobby Suburban Galicians" and how Rajoy would be a PSOE supporter now Tongue
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