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October 16, 2019, 09:07:58 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 51204 times)
Lechasseur
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« Reply #600 on: April 30, 2019, 05:28:34 am »

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.

Does anyone really think that the moderate wing of PP who was probably more linked to Rajoy anyway would have stopped the bleeding of their support to parties to their right? That doesn't make much sense to me either.

Saenz de Santamaria would not have put utter blockheads like the head of list for the Madrid Community in such prominent positions for a start. And then let's also remember that PSOE have swung leftwards in recent years under Sanchez's stewardship. THe only reason people are screaming "the center has won" is because of Casado's abandoning of the center, making Sanchez-led PSOE the candidate of normalcy.

Sure long term PP to C's transfers is to be expected but this was a car crash campaign from Casado. THe dude litterally sold himself on the same terms as Rivera in relation to peripheral nationalists as his selling point and all Rivera had to do is just produce a headline with "PP in pact with PNV" at the debate. Had the debate been more centred on economics and in particular pensions (which is what the PP centrists are very good at arguing) he could have presented Rajoy's record...which whilst I do not condone, is statistically at least more credible than PP's record on corruption, social issues and peripheral nationalisms.

Yeah, she may have been better on economics, which may have played out well in a normal election, but at any rate what I'm reading in the French language news is that the right did as badly as it did not because of swings to the left but because of massive turnout for the left and for regional nationalists in reaction to Vox, so under those circumstances I'm not convinced that those voters would have winged in favor of somebody who would probably have to go in coalition with C's and Vox anyway. More than anything I think that would have just pushed more solid right-wingers to C's and to Vox.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #601 on: April 30, 2019, 09:33:50 am »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 01:36:12 pm by tack50 »

La Nueva España has an extremely nice precinct map of Asturias

https://afondo.lne.es/asturias/el-mapa-del-voto-en-asturias-por-vecindarios.html

Apparently PP was strongest in the city centers, especially of Oviedo. They also won a handful of precincts in the rural west.

PSOE pretty much swept the entire autonomous community. Asturias is a left wing region so no surprise there, but still nice to see.

Cs won a handful of precincts in rich suburban areas in Oviedo and Avilés (the 2 largest cities)

UP won a handful of precincts in the mining town of Mieres. Nice to see mining towns aren't shifting away from the left and into the far right like in say, France.

Eldiario.es also has nice district maps of the largest Spanish towns

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-distritos-principales-ciudades-espanolas_0_893811644.html

Also, a fantastic map of results by bloc and municipality

https://elecciones.eldiario.es/resultados28a/bloques?_ga=2.200689641.696649284.1556387208-1582734662.1550242349
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Velasco
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« Reply #602 on: April 30, 2019, 05:35:52 pm »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 05:45:13 pm by Velasco »

The PP's national executive met today. There is concern among regional leaders after the downfall a couple of days ago. The new campaign slogan is "Centrados En Tu Futuro" ("centrados"can be translated as "centered" or "focused"). Four days ago, Casado offered cabinet seats to Vox. Today Casado says that Vox is the far right, Cs are "socialdemocrats" and the PP is the only party of the Spanish centre-right. It seems our solid right winger will engage in an accelerated return to the centre. Of course he doesn't want to resign. By the moment nobody is asking him to go because there are elections within next month. The results of Pedro Sánchez in 2015 and 2016 were bad, but nothing comparable to the catastrophic performance of the PP in 2019. If you start to look at local results in certain places throughout Spain the feeling gets stronger. The process of decomposition began before Casado became leader, but his strategy was suicidal and accelerated the decline. This apparent "return to the centre" is the proof.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #603 on: April 30, 2019, 05:41:14 pm »

Honestly I think that if there wasn't an election next month Casado should have resigned already.

His shock is on par or worse than people who resigned on election day or shortly after like Suárez 1991 (local elections), Almunia 2000 or Fraga 1986 (who actually went up 1 seat!). Of course we all probably thought the same about Sánchez in 2015 and 2016 and look at him now.

Pablo Casado must be furiously reading Sánchez's "Resistance Manual" right now xD
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Velasco
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« Reply #604 on: April 30, 2019, 06:10:15 pm »

At least Sánchez managed to resist the Podemos surge in 2015. The purple tide in December 2015 was twice stronger than the Vox surge in April 2019. Later Sánchez managed again to resist the offensive of Pablo Iglesias allied with IU. Unidos Podemos came very close to the PSOE in 2016, but the 'sorpasso' didn't occur. By then Sanchez didn't have full control of the PSOE and he was loathed or understimated by rivals, both internal and external. Pedro Sánchez managed to defeat Pablo Iglesias, Susana Diaz, the PSOE establishment and finally Mariano Rajoy and the Colón Triumvirate. Possibly he is not the most brilliant of the Spanish politicians, neither intellectually nor dialectically. However his resilience and his ability to survive are impressive. Obviouly he's not the handsome idiot that some people believed he was. Pablo Casado must try harder to achieve such level of prowess.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #605 on: April 30, 2019, 06:19:35 pm »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #606 on: April 30, 2019, 06:47:36 pm »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

Apparently they have said they will have the exact same position as ERC and will vote the same in Sánchez's confidence vote.

Beyond that they seem to be giving mixed signals. On one hand they claim they will support (or at least not oppose) Sánchez. On the other, they are asking for a referendum (presumably not just in Catalonia but also the Basque Country). They do seem to have some constructive rethoric but I certainly don't trust them at all.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/29/actualidad/1556549260_730422.html

https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/paisvasco/20190430/461968425827/otegi-eh-bildu-referendum-pedro-sanchez-gobierno-psoe-presidente-erc.html

I guess the situation will be similar to what happened before. They abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote, but then Sánchez's budget and important laws won't pass and we will go to an early election in 2021 or so.

A more interesting route seems to be this one instead:

ERC and JxCat included 4 people currently in prison and in so-called exile on their election lists, which have all taken a seat. These people, unless they renounce their seats, won't be able to swear in and sit in parliament.

That means that the majority for Sánchez to become president and pass laws will go down. With 4 seats less, that means a 346 member parliament effectively; with 174 seats required for a majority.

Coincidentally, Sánchez and his "comfortable" allies (Podemos, PNV, Compromís and PRC) add up to 173.

At that point Bildu and ERC would no longer be the kingmakers but instead that could also be the Canarian Coalition. They have said they won't support a joint Sánchez-Podemos government or one dependent on secessionists, but they could support a minority Sánchez government. If CC abstained, the vote would become 173 yes-171 no-2 abstain-4 not voting

So if the Catalans don't take their seats a la Sinn Fein, that's another option.

Finally, I've seen nothing from UPN, which would be the final option. They ran alongside Cs and PP in a joint list, but they are still an independent party after all.
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« Reply #607 on: April 30, 2019, 07:52:08 pm »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

Apparently they have said they will have the exact same position as ERC and will vote the same in Sánchez's confidence vote.

Beyond that they seem to be giving mixed signals. On one hand they claim they will support (or at least not oppose) Sánchez. On the other, they are asking for a referendum (presumably not just in Catalonia but also the Basque Country). They do seem to have some constructive rethoric but I certainly don't trust them at all.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/29/actualidad/1556549260_730422.html

https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/paisvasco/20190430/461968425827/otegi-eh-bildu-referendum-pedro-sanchez-gobierno-psoe-presidente-erc.html

I guess the situation will be similar to what happened before. They abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote, but then Sánchez's budget and important laws won't pass and we will go to an early election in 2021 or so.

A more interesting route seems to be this one instead:

ERC and JxCat included 4 people currently in prison and in so-called exile on their election lists, which have all taken a seat. These people, unless they renounce their seats, won't be able to swear in and sit in parliament.

That means that the majority for Sánchez to become president and pass laws will go down. With 4 seats less, that means a 346 member parliament effectively; with 174 seats required for a majority.

Coincidentally, Sánchez and his "comfortable" allies (Podemos, PNV, Compromís and PRC) add up to 173.

At that point Bildu and ERC would no longer be the kingmakers but instead that could also be the Canarian Coalition. They have said they won't support a joint Sánchez-Podemos government or one dependent on secessionists, but they could support a minority Sánchez government. If CC abstained, the vote would become 173 yes-171 no-2 abstain-4 not voting

So if the Catalans don't take their seats a la Sinn Fein, that's another option.

Finally, I've seen nothing from UPN, which would be the final option. They ran alongside Cs and PP in a joint list, but they are still an independent party after all.

Should we discard the possibility of a coalition altogether, then?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #608 on: April 30, 2019, 07:54:08 pm »

Finally a European election that is a significant rebuke of fascists!

Well, they entered the legislature for the first time since Franco dictatorship. Not a resounding victory.

If I can make an analogy, it's kind of like being served an ice cream sundae. But instead of whipped cream, it came with sour cream.
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Velasco
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« Reply #609 on: April 30, 2019, 08:27:44 pm »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 08:31:52 pm by Velasco »

Should we discard the possibility of a coalition altogether, then?

No. As I said in a previous post, the upcoming elections in May (EP, regional and local) will delay coalition building and creation of majorities. PSOE and Podemos will engage a long negotiation that will end in some kind of agreement, either confidence and suppply or coalition government. Sánchez and the PSOE want a minority government with "progressive independents"; Iglesias and UP demand a coalition. Nothing will be solved before the elections, so it makes little sense to speculate or make predictions at this early stage.
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« Reply #610 on: April 30, 2019, 11:33:37 pm »



Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.
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Velasco
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« Reply #611 on: May 01, 2019, 02:27:37 am »

Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.

"Others" are neither Catalan nationalists nor PNV, since these parties appear separately in the graph. It must be a transfer from UP to EH Bildu, other regionalists like Compromís and other parties like PACMA. However, I don't see large transfers of non-participants and UP (ECP) or CDC to ERC and the 385k increase didn't come from nowhere. Maybe there's some error in the graph.

PSOE manages to mobilize the largest number of non-participants, as well there's a large transfer from UP. However the graph shows very littletransfer from Cs to PSOE. Of course Vox is one of the main reasons of the PP collapse, but the transfer from PP to Cs is large too. The little amount of the transfers between Cs and Vox is somewhat surprising, as well as the low numbers coming from abstention.

The CIS post-election survey will be released soon and it will provide info about vote transfers and other issues.

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« Reply #612 on: May 01, 2019, 11:10:43 am »

  Its amazing to see the urban vote, especially broken down by district. In the cities, aside from Barcelona and Bilboa, there are so few areas that we see in other western democracies where the parties of the left absolutely dominate, crush the opposition. Instead, they win a lot of districts just getting 55% or less of the vote.
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Velasco
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« Reply #613 on: May 01, 2019, 07:44:34 pm »

Wondeful map of results by precinct nationwide, similar to that map of the 2016 elections linked in a previous page of this thread.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/01/actualidad/1556730293_254945.html

This time my precinct voted as follows:

PSOE 31%, UP 24%, PP 14%, Cs 12%, Vox 6%, CC 3%, Others 10% (presumably NC and PACMA have most of this share)

Nice image from Galicia


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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #614 on: May 02, 2019, 03:21:28 am »

My precinct for comparison is much weaker for the left:

PSOE: 22%
Cs: 20%
PP: 18%
UP: 18%
Vox: 10%
CC: 4%
Others (mostly NCa+PACMA): 7%

Also, El Confidencial posted an analysis of the differences between Cs voters and PP voters. This isn't exactly new information but it's still very interesting to see.

1: PP wins in rural areas (municipalities below 10k inhabitants), Cs wins in urban areas (municipaliteis above 10k, and especially above 50k)

2: PP performs better among older people, Cs performs better among young people

3: More interestingly, Cs beats PP among rich people, while poorer places tend to vote PP

4: Cs beats PP in places with higher rates of college graduates

5: Cs beats PP among men, while PP performs better with women.

PP's vote seems to have become ruralized, feminized and pensionized according to the analysis. They also gave us a really nice map which does say a lot

Map: https://www.ecestaticos.com/file/73432f701818d283ec7efaa1557b390b/1556725218-20190501maparesultadosmunicipiosppcs-01.png

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-generales/2019-05-01/pp-ciudadanos-mujeres-pensionistas-sorpasso_1976170/

Posting only a link as posting the map itself pretty much breaks Atlas.

With a handful of exceptions (most notably the "nationalist" regions), the map is quite clear, showing Cs winning in urban and specially suburban areas while PP wins in rural areas.

Madrid province in particular is the funniest example; with Madrid city itself voting PP, the suburban areas around it voting Cs, and the rural areas voting PP.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #615 on: May 02, 2019, 04:05:10 am »

Is Aragonia, really that urban.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #616 on: May 02, 2019, 11:53:19 am »


Yes and no. Most of the population is actually concentrated in Zaragoza city, but the rest of the region has extremely low population density, particularly Teruel. Southern Aragon (alongside neighbouring areas from Castille-Leon and Castille-La Mancha) has a population density comparable to Lapland!

Cs does perform strongly in certain rural areas, but PP id much stronger in the rurals at-large
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Velasco
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« Reply #617 on: May 03, 2019, 03:09:51 am »

Another precinct map, more complete and with a lot of interesting info

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-barrios-pobres-militares-barrio_0_894861358.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #618 on: May 03, 2019, 03:18:28 am »
« Edited: May 04, 2019, 03:34:59 am by Velasco »

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.


Largest bloc by province (majority).


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #619 on: May 03, 2019, 06:34:16 am »

Remember that one muslim party who was really close to getting a seat in Melilla until like 80% of the vote was counted? Coalición por Melilla (CpM)

Well, apparently they have been banned from participating in the regional/local elections there because of not respecting men-women parity.

Spanish law mandates that in every block of 5 candidates in the list there must be a 3-2 split either way, but CpM's list had 4-1 splits on blocks 11-15 and 16-20. The election authorities as a response have blocked CpM from taking part in the election.

This is very big news, as CpM is currently the main opposition in Melilla, and had a big chance of becoming the next local government. With CpM out of the picture, Melilla seems very likely to remain in PP's hands, with PSOE probably going up and the muslims there abstaining (though many will vote PSOE I guess). CpM of course is suing the election authorities, so maybe they will be let in, who knows.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/30/actualidad/1556652352_178997.html

They are apparently also suing for the general election results, claiming that there was fraud. Just like Vox (who has also been making some noise about fraud), I expect their lawsuit to go nowhere.
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« Reply #620 on: May 03, 2019, 03:06:07 pm »


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

Fascinating how the two main blocs are basically tied nationwide but the Right is ahead almost everywhere. It's not even just a population density thing, since the Right is ahead in Madrid and some of the relatively dense coastal areas. A lot of it is probably because the national right is so nonexistent in Catalonia and Euskadi.
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Velasco
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« Reply #621 on: May 04, 2019, 02:05:29 am »
« Edited: May 04, 2019, 03:44:39 am by Velasco »

Bloc results:
Fascinating how the two main blocs are basically tied nationwide but the Right is ahead almost everywhere. It's not even just a population density thing, since the Right is ahead in Madrid and some of the relatively dense coastal areas. A lot of it is probably because the national right is so nonexistent in Catalonia and Euskadi.

Yes, Catalonia and Basque Country make the difference for the Left.

Bloc results in Catalonia were: Nationalists 39.4%, Left 38.1%, Right 20%, The Basque Country was even worse for the Right, as it lost parliamentary representation: Nationalists 47.7%, Left 37.5%, Right 12.8%.

Regarding the rest of Spain the results were mixed. Much of the inland Spain is depopulated, with the exception of Madrid. But, as you say, it's not only a matter of population density.

Andalusia is the largest Spanish region by population and is the traditional stronghold of the Left. However, the region is shifting progressively to the right and it was lost for the PSOE in December 2018 after 37 years of continued hegemony. The Left recovered in comaprison with the last regional election, particularly the PSOE. Recovery was limited, though: Left 48.5%, Right 48.3%

Madrid is the third largest region by population after Andalusia and Catalonia: Left 43.5% and Right 53.4%. The reelection as Mayor of my personal favourite Manuela Carmena will be an uphill battle, as the margin in the city of Madrid is similar.

To compensate the Andalusia's shift, the Left has recovered ground in the Valencian Community (4th largest region by population). The Left governs since 2015, after many years of PP rule and massive corruption scandals. There was a leftwing majority in regional elections and a tie between blocs in general elections: Left 48.5%, Right 48.6% .

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

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« Reply #622 on: May 04, 2019, 03:52:03 am »

Which area are strongholds of CC in Canaries? BNG used to be "promising" in Galicia, but it has nowadays medicore support. Is that due the PODEMOS.
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« Reply #623 on: May 04, 2019, 05:32:49 am »

Any post-election surveys that highlight demographic preference of the electorate? I assume that contrary to other right-wing populist outfits, Vox did not do as well among the working class?
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« Reply #624 on: May 04, 2019, 06:37:01 am »

Have the canarians said anything?
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