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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33217 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #625 on: May 04, 2019, 07:49:34 am »

Any post-election surveys that highlight demographic preference of the electorate? I assume that contrary to other right-wing populist outfits, Vox did not do as well among the working class?

CIS post-election survey will be released within a few days. Precinct results point that Vox is more popular in affluent neighbourhoods.

Have the canarians said anything?

CC doesn't want deals with Podemos or Vox
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tack50
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« Reply #626 on: May 04, 2019, 08:02:01 am »

Which area are strongholds of CC in Canaries? BNG used to be "promising" in Galicia, but it has nowadays medicore support. Is that due the PODEMOS.

Well, first of all, here are the results of the 2015 regional election as a start (with the map shamelessly stolen from Velasco)



CC's strongest support is in the island of El Hierro (in fact, I'm surprised they did not keep their Senator there!). Technically CC doesn't run there, but AHI (Agrupación Herreña Independiente); though by all intents and purposes AHI may as well be part of CC, that's only a technicality. However, el Hierro is tiny, so they need more votes.

CC also gets a lot of support from Tenerife, particularly rural areas in Tenerife. They also get strong support in Fuerteventura and some parts of La Palma.

Their weakest support by contrast is located in La Gomera (which is the personal fiefdom of Casimiro Curbelo, the local cacique) and Gran Canaria (CC is seen as the "party of Tenerife" and NC as the "party of Gran Canaria" to some extent). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria in particular (the largest city in the islands) is a black hole for CC where they get horrible results.

As for other parties, PSOE gets very spread out resultsm (with southern Tenerife, a touristy area, being their best result?). PP gets its best results in rural Gran Canaria and to a lesser extent La Palma. NCa gets its best results in the GC-1 corridor in Gran Canaria. Podemos gets its best results in Las Palmas city. I imagine Cs gets its best results in comfy upper middle class suburban areas in Las Palmas. And of course ASG gets its entire support from La Gomera for obvious reasons.

As for BNG, they have gone up, but as you say Podemos stole a lot of their votes. However infighting between En Marea and Podemos proper in Galicia has allowed BNG to go up and get most of the nationalist voters that used to support Podemos in Galicia.

Have the canarians said anything?

As Velasco said, they have said they don't want deals with Vox, Podemos or the secessionists (I imagine their ideal government would be PSOE-Cs with them as kingmakers).

However, I imagine much of their strategy will also depend on the results of the regional election.

If the Canary Islands elect a PSOE led government, they will provably not support Sánchez and go full opposition. If CC does form a government again though; especially if it's a CC-PSOE government, they will probably support Sánchez or at least abstain.
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tack50
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« Reply #627 on: May 04, 2019, 08:07:37 am »

Also, Sociométrica released some interesting data regarding the gender composition of both parties.

In general, PSOE and PP (the old 2 party system) get better results among women. Cs gets slightly better results among men but is the closest to a 50-50 split. And Podemos and Vox get their support overwhelmingly from men.

I guess men are just more extremist and women are moderate heroines? Also I wonder if the fact that PP and PSOE lead among women while the "new parties" lead among men is somehow a function of age (with women living longer and being generally older; as old voters do clearly show a preference for PP-PSOE)



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« Reply #628 on: May 04, 2019, 08:12:28 am »

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.


Largest bloc by province (majority).


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

I was compiling these results myself, and I'd like to know where would we put some minor regional parties. Gbai, PRC, En Marea, BNG? Like, where do they fit?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #629 on: May 04, 2019, 08:42:46 am »

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?
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tack50
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« Reply #630 on: May 04, 2019, 09:23:31 am »

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?

Well, we haven't had a proper poll since May 2018 so who knows. Even if you want to count the Electopanel (which mind you is not a proper poll!) that one is still before the general election and actually predicted a tiny right wing majority: 34-36

We will at the very least get more Electopaneles, but those are not proper polls. CIS also releases one poll for regional elections, and we might also get a proper private poll by one of the 2 largest newspapers (Canarias7 or La Provincia+La Opinión de Tenerife).

Either way, the race will be incredibly tight. And it looks like any left wing majority will be dependent on ASG, the party of Casimiro Curbelo, which is not exactly 100% reliable (though I guess he will support the left if you bribe him invest enough in La Gomera)

The general election didn't clear up much as PSOE and UP did go up by a lot, but NCa collapsed and CC also went up by a lot. Finally Vox didn't really get a good result.

My predictions for government formation:

If PSOE-UP-NCa-ASG get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If CC-PP-Cs get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If the 2 blocs are tied or the right wins but depends on Vox (remember CC can't really do deals with Vox), then a PSOE-CC grand coalition gets formed, maybe dependent on ASG, NCa or Cs if they are in a minority. At that point whoever gets the most seats will be the next premier (with CC benefiting a lot from the electoral system).
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« Reply #631 on: May 04, 2019, 01:12:58 pm »

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?
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« Reply #632 on: May 04, 2019, 01:22:57 pm »

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?
I guess immigration played a factor for Andalousia moving to the right. Maybe that's why Galicia has moved to the left?
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tack50
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« Reply #633 on: May 04, 2019, 01:25:36 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2019, 01:30:45 pm by tack50 »

Also, I will do an analysis of the regional elections in each community. This is all personal opinion and based quite a bit on the results of the general election (albeit taking into account dual voting / split ballots). Here it goes:

Asturias: Asturias seems to have remained a region with a small, but consistent left wing advantage. As of now, it is the only region with no peripheral nationalist sentiment to actually lean left (even Andalucía is very slightly right of center now!). The incumbent government seems to be decently popular and the premier is retiring. Overall, things look good for the left, but a surprise win by the right is definitely a possibility.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Cantabria: Against all odds, the left actually won the general election here (with a similar margin to Asturias), in a community that has traditionally been very right wing! A lot of it comes from PRC getting a lot of support and even a seat in Congress. The incumbent premier, Miguel Ángel Revilla, is quite populist but also popular. Barring a major surprise, Revilla seems extremely likely to remain premier.

Rating: Likely PRC

Castille-Leon: Rural and deeply conservative, those are the best ingredients for PP. If they can't win here, they aren't winning anywhere. So unless you believe PP will implode in an spectacular fashion, they will keep this. Cs is not close enough to challenge PP. The only way I can see them somehow losing is with a PSOE-Cs deal, but I don't think that is likely even if PSOE tops the poll. Plus I think Castille-Leon's PSOE isn't exactly the most moderate in the country.

Rating: Safe PP

La Rioja: In one of the surprises of the night, the left kept La Rioja semi-competitive (within 10 points). However that's still nowhere near enough for a left wing government. A PSOE-Cs deal here seems more likely than in Castille-Leon (even if again La Rioja's PSOE isn't the most moderate), especially with the tighter margins, but is still not the most likely thing. Similarly, PP is still way ahead of Cs so no chance of Cs beating PP either.

Rating: Likely PP

Navarra: The general election gave huge support to the left. UPN/NA+ seems very likely to keep going down and PSOE will go up. It seems likely that the nationalists+Podemos will keep their majority. Bildu was close to beating GBai in 2015, and while I think the difference will be small again I don't think that will happen. Barkos will probably, but not certainly, be reelected premier

Rating: Likely GBai

Aragón: The general election gave a victory to the right here. Not an overwhelming one, but a decent enough one. The main issue here is that I most definitely don't see Lambán somehow overperforming compared to Sánchez, unlike other premiers elsewhere. That means that the already narrow left wing majority will be toast. Cs actually beat PP here surprisingly. A right wing government would be dependent on both PAR (a regionalist right wing party) and Vox, but I think Cs won't have any trouble getting the support of both. And with a chance of forming government, I doubt they would instead go with a PSOE-Cs-PAR coalition even if Lambán is one of the biggest PSOE moderates.

Rating: Lean Cs

Balearic Islands: The general election gave an extremely small victory to the left here. The bad news is that Armengol isn't exactly popular or a moderate (in fact she is the most left wing PSOE premier and the only one that supported Sánchez in the primaries). The good news for her is that the regionalist PI will never ever support a government that needs Vox and it seems unlikely that PP-Cs-Vox can get a majority by themselves (even with PI it is far from guaranteed!). Plus in the Balearics there have already been "everyone against PP" coalitions back in the day so this wouldn't be a surprise.

Rating: Likely PSOE

Madrid: In a surprising twist, the left actually did quite well here in the general election even if they still lost. Plus Gabilondo and Errejón are stronger candidates than the ones from PP. However it does seem very likely that the right will hold a majority regardless. Cs beat PP here, so Cs is certainly favoured. However, they will have the uncomfortable fact of having to deal with Vox, but I think they will go for it regardless.

Rating: Lean Cs

Castille-La Mancha: The general election gave a large right wing victory here, but that has already been a thing since the Aznar era. It's just that PSOE in this community has always been able to overperform by a lot. García-Page is also a big moderate. Cs was close-ish to PP here, but I think PP would manage to still beat them. If there's a place where PSOE-Cs will form, it's here, and I think that is the most likely outcome. However, if both Podemos and Vox manage to get screwed by the electoral system I think Cs will support PP, but that's an unlikely possibility

Rating: Tilt PSOE

Extremadura: The general election gave a small right wing victory here. Again, just like Castille-La Mancha, PSOE has been able to overperform. The sociology here is extremely similar to Andalucía in fact, to the point where neither region had had a right wing parliament ever. Though Extremadura did see a PP minority government propped up by IU of all things back in 2011. Either way, the right has a chance to break that spell and get a majority, but it's not guaranteed. There's also the fact that Fernández Vara is a moderate as well. So a PSOE-Cs coalition is likely. Cs was even closer to PP here, but again I don't think a sorpasso is happening. With this in mind, Fernández Vara is favoured, though he is still by no means a lock

Rating: Lean PSOE

Murcia: Ah Murcia. The single most right wing region in Spain, even more so than deep Castille. PSOE narrowly won the popular vote in the general election surprisingly, and PP came in second. Cs third and a strong Vox in fourth. Unlike Extremadura or Castille-La Mancha, I think a sorpasso here is more likely, but not a guarantee. A left wing government or PSOE-Cs are both out of the question. And with PP favoured to win in the right, they are favoured to remain premier overall.

Rating: Lean PP

Canary Islands: Looking at the general election, it seems the right did manage to eke out an extremely narrow win here, but of course with the f* up electoral system, any similarities between the popular vote and the parliament results are pure coincidence. CC also had a phenomenal result, so it's very unclear whether CC will keep going or the left will finally be able to take them down. I still think it's slightly more likely that PSOE will win, and the left can easily get a coalition done while CC and Vox are incompatible. So overall PSOE is favoured, but an upset can happen

Rating: Lean PSOE

Ceuta: This is the only place where of the 3 right wing parties Vox came out on top. With Podemos being nearly non-existent here, the muslim parties being very divided and Ceuta's overall lean, it seems very likely that the right will hold a majority. While Vox is favoured, PP is still within striking distance and there's always the possibility of Cs trying to force some sort of PSOE-Cs government with support from the muslim local parties. That is unlikely, but far from impossible

Rating: Tilt Vox

Melilla: Turns out CpM, the party that had everyone surprised during election night, is actually allowed to run after all. That is bad news for the right, though Melilla still has a large enough right wing tilt to make them hold a majority. PP also beat Vox here so they are favoured to hold this, but the margin will be narrow. Again if they lose this it will be in favour of Vox.

Rating: Lean PP

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« Reply #634 on: May 04, 2019, 03:45:13 pm »

The results from Galicia were one of the best things of the night, and I think  there is no result.

I believe one of the reasons of this swing of Galicia is the following: the PP was really strong there but the people that voted for the party are not right wing. Galicia was one of the poorest regions decades ago and most of old people associates PP with social development. I remember that I saw one article that people told reporters that they voted for the politicians that brought electricity to the town and things like that. Thats why the PP was very strong in the country side. The thing is that the children of those people have no loyalty to the PP and also have a strong identity associated to Galicia that other parties now offer with a more attractive package.

The strength of the PP was also possible because the Galicia branch of PP was very moderate and also they defended the Galician identity, Feijoo (Galicia’s president) talks almost all the time in Galego.

When you have an election that the main theme is the role of autonomies and regional identity, you can’t expect that the right wing parties that campaign  on decreasing Autonomies’ powers do well in a region that has a strong identity  (and also, I read that Galego in the country side of Galicia is stronger than Euskera in rural Euskal Herria or Català in rural Catalunya). That is way now Feijoo is strongly advocating to return the PP to a moderate approach, because he knows that he is going to be one of the main victims of the centralist approach.
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Velasco
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« Reply #635 on: May 08, 2019, 03:08:19 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2019, 06:39:10 am by Velasco »


As for other parties, PSOE gets very spread out results (with southern Tenerife, a touristy area, being their best result?).

The PSOE candidate in 2015 was Patricia Hernández. She is from Tenerife and her main base of support within the PSOE's regional branch was in the south of that island, where the party holds some local governments. The best result for the PSOE was in Adeje, a municipality that incorporates the major tourist resort of Playa de las Américas. I have some municipality results posted here:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2015/06/13/elecciones-al-parlamento-de-canarias-2015/

I was compiling these results myself, and I'd like to know where would we put some minor regional parties. Gbai, PRC, En Marea, BNG? Like, where do they fit?

I aggregated Compromís and NA+ to the Left and the Right, because I consider both are solid allies of their respective blocs.

Regarding the rest of regional forces, I grouped them in "peripheral nationalists" and "regionalists". The difference between both categories is not always clear. The Spanish Constitution mentions the existence of "regions" and "historical nationalities". In order to make my life easier, I group as "peripheral nationalists" all the parties operating in "historic nationalities" with a proper language: Catalonia, Basque Country and Galicia. The parties operating in the rest of regions are simply "regionalist". I'll make a short list including regional parties with seats in Congress or in regional legislatures.

Peripheral nationalists  

Catalonia: ERC (entre-left), JxCAT (centre-right) and FR (far-left)
Basque Country and Navarre: EAJ-PNV (centre or centre-right), EH Bldu (left-wing) and GBai (centre-left)
Galicia: BNG (left-wing), Anova (left-wing, did not contest) and En Marea (left-wing)

Regionalists
:

Asturias: Foro (right-wing, in coalition with PP this general election)
Aragon: PAR (centre-right, did not contest), CHA (centre-left, did not contest)
Balearic Islands: MÉS (left-wing catalanist, ran with ERC), EL PI (centre-right)
Canary Islands: CC-PNC (centre-right), NC (centre-left)
Cantabria: PRC (centre or centre-left)

CpM in Melilla and the local parties in Ceuta could be grouped as "regionalist" as well.

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?

The results from Galicia were one of the best things of the night, and I think  there is no result.

I believe one of the reasons of this swing of Galicia is the following: the PP was really strong there but the people that voted for the party are not right wing. Galicia was one of the poorest regions decades ago and most of old people associates PP with social development. I remember that I saw one article that people told reporters that they voted for the politicians that brought electricity to the town and things like that. Thats why the PP was very strong in the country side. The thing is that the children of those people have no loyalty to the PP and also have a strong identity associated to Galicia that other parties now offer with a more attractive package.

The strength of the PP was also possible because the Galicia branch of PP was very moderate and also they defended the Galician identity, Feijoo (Galicia’s president) talks almost all the time in Galego.

When you have an election that the main theme is the role of autonomies and regional identity, you can’t expect that the right wing parties that campaign  on decreasing Autonomies’ powers do well in a region that has a strong identity  (and also, I read that Galego in the country side of Galicia is stronger than Euskera in rural Euskal Herria or Català in rural Catalunya). That is way now Feijoo is strongly advocating to return the PP to a moderate approach, because he knows that he is going to be one of the main victims of the centralist approach.

There exists a clear divide in Galicia in what regards electoral behaviour. The coast and the urban centres have been shifting to the left. Possibly it's a thing of younger voters with a strong sense of Galician identity. However, the PP retains a strong (albeit somewhat diminished) base of support in rural Galicia. These voters are conservative and traditionalist, but often they are Galician-speaking too. The PP has incorporated the conservative regionalism in Galicia and that's one of the main reasons of its success. In fact PP resisted much better in Galicia while the appeal of the Vox's radical centralism is weak. Similarly parties with centralist stances like Cs or Vox have little appeal to the UPN traditionalist base that defend the old Fueros

I guess the shift to the right in Southern Spain is related to a wear caused by many years of PSOE regional administrations. The impact of the Catalan crisis is arguably much more important to explain the rise of the far right than issues like immigration. Vox performed strongly in places like El Ejido (Almería) and Torre Pacheco (Murcia) that have a strong proportion of immigrants working as labourers in greenhouses and such. However, the Vox support in the urban centres is not located in working class neighbourhoods with large immigrant population. Rather, it's located in more affluent neighbourhoods that traditionally vote PP.
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Velasco
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« Reply #636 on: May 08, 2019, 03:23:56 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2019, 04:11:16 am by Velasco »

Barcelona poll conducted by GESOP for El Periódico

ERC (Ernest Maragall) 22.5% 11 councilors
BComú (Ada Colau) 20% 9-10 councilors
PSC (Jaume Collboni) 16.6% 8 councilors
BCN-Cs (Manuel Valls)13.1% 6 councilors
JxCAT (Joaquim Forn) 12% 5-6 councilors
PP (Josep Bou) 4.6% 0-2 cuncilors
CUP (Anna Saliente) 4% 0 councilors
BCap* (Jordi Graupera) 3.5% 0 councilors

*Pro-independence list backed by the ANC

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20190506/encuesta-elecciones-municipales-barcelona-2019-7440699
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« Reply #637 on: May 08, 2019, 04:59:20 am »

I would imagine the explanation for declines in the Left and Right in certain heartland regions is that the old patronage systems are dead or in life support (due to both austerity shrinking the state and graft-busting), so there's literally no point in keeping the old patronage machines alive?
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Velasco
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« Reply #638 on: May 08, 2019, 06:07:39 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2019, 08:23:57 am by Velasco »

I would imagine the explanation for declines in the Left and Right in certain heartland regions is that the old patronage systems are dead or in life support (due to both austerity shrinking the state and graft-busting), so there's literally no point in keeping the old patronage machines alive?

Possibly the decline of patronage machines in rural Galicia or Andalusia plays a role, but it's only a factor among others in play. I tend to think the influence of subsidies like PER in Andalusia has been exaggerated, as the beneficiaries (agricultural labourers) are only a small proportion of the population. The Baltar family in Ourense province dominates local politics and the patronage machine is still strong there... In any case the influence of patronage machines does not extend to the more populous and dynamic coastal and urban areas. Demographic changes in coastal Galicia or Abdalusia could explain better vote shifts in those places.
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« Reply #639 on: May 08, 2019, 07:16:34 am »

Does this benefit the Conservatives ?
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Velasco
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« Reply #640 on: May 08, 2019, 08:25:56 am »

Does this benefit the Conservatives ?

Do you mean the decline of patronage machines? In Southern Spain, yes; in Galicia, no.
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« Reply #641 on: May 09, 2019, 09:11:29 am »
« Edited: May 09, 2019, 09:15:41 am by tack50 »

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2019/Documentacion_3245-PreEAMPE19.html

Regional elections

Madrid



Murcia



Castille-Leon



Canary Islands



Castille-La Mancha



Aragon



Extremadura



Balearic Islands



Asturias



Cantabria



Navarra

NA+: 30.2% (16-17)
PSOE: 21.2% (11-12)
EH Bildu: 14.1% (7-8)
GBai: 14.0% (7-9)
Podemos: 10.8% (6)
IU: 4.4% (1-2)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)
Others: 2.4%

La Rioja



EU Elections



Here you can check the full results: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3635423/0/encuesta-cis-elecciones-autonomicas-municipales-europeas-26-mayo/

They also did local election polls for the largest cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza)



I personally believe CIS has gone back and is now giving massive landslides to the left. However, if true these would be devastating results for the Spanish right. Not only do they not make any gains whatsoever but actually lose several regions they've controlled since the end of the González era like Madrid, Canary Islands (CC) and La Rioja.

Castille-Leon of all places would be no better than a tossup! They would only be able to safely hold Murcia, with Castille-Leon leaning right (but being nowhere near safe) and La Rioja depending on whatever the regional PR+ does (I expect them to side with the left).

In particular these would be great results for PSOE; decent for PP and Podemos and very bad for Cs and especially Vox.

I certainly don't expect the right to lose Madrid; and I definitely expect the left to lose at the very least Aragon. I could be wrong, but this poll seems too good to be true, and it probably is
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« Reply #642 on: May 09, 2019, 09:49:12 am »

When do all these regional elections take place?

Also, can anyone explain why Murcia is so rightwing? Seems like a bit of a conservative island in an area that mostly skews left and that was a republican stronghold during the civil war
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« Reply #643 on: May 09, 2019, 10:02:51 am »

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2019/Documentacion_3245-PreEAMPE19.html

Regional elections

Madrid



Murcia



Castille-Leon



Canary Islands



Castille-La Mancha



Aragon



Extremadura



Balearic Islands



Asturias



Cantabria



Navarra

NA+: 30.2% (16-17)
PSOE: 21.2% (11-12)
EH Bildu: 14.1% (7-8)
GBai: 14.0% (7-9)
Podemos: 10.8% (6)
IU: 4.4% (1-2)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)
Others: 2.4%

La Rioja



EU Elections



Here you can check the full results: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3635423/0/encuesta-cis-elecciones-autonomicas-municipales-europeas-26-mayo/

They also did local election polls for the largest cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza)



I personally believe CIS has gone back and is now giving massive landslides to the left. However, if true these would be devastating results for the Spanish right. Not only do they not make any gains whatsoever but actually lose several regions they've controlled since the end of the González era like Madrid, Canary Islands (CC) and La Rioja.

Castille-Leon of all places would be no better than a tossup! They would only be able to safely hold Murcia, with Castille-Leon leaning right (but being nowhere near safe) and La Rioja depending on whatever the regional PR+ does (I expect them to side with the left).

In particular these would be great results for PSOE; decent for PP and Podemos and very bad for Cs and especially Vox.

I certainly don't expect the right to lose Madrid; and I definitely expect the left to lose at the very least Aragon. I could be wrong, but this poll seems too good to be true, and it probably is

Could PSOE use the regional results to get an agreement with Bildu or Canaris?
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Velasco
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« Reply #644 on: May 09, 2019, 10:12:58 am »

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Why do you say it's a polling dump? The CIS was more spotted on than the rest of pollsters predicting the general election results. Maybe this poll looks a bit optimistic for the left and the appointment of a PSOE member at the head was not a good idea, but I think such comments are disrespectful with the professionals of the sociological institute.
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tack50
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« Reply #645 on: May 09, 2019, 10:52:25 am »

When do all these regional elections take place?

Also, can anyone explain why Murcia is so rightwing? Seems like a bit of a conservative island in an area that mostly skews left and that was a republican stronghold during the civil war

The regional/local elections take place on the 26th of May, same day as the EU elections

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Could PSOE use the regional results to get an agreement with Bildu or Canaris?

No. If anything, the opposite would actually be the case. These poll results would allow PSOE to rule the Canaries with UP and NCa (without CC) and in Navarra they could either get in government themselves (supported by GBai, Podemos and IU) or support a NA+ government. The former would be much more likely in my opinion.

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Why do you say it's a polling dump? The CIS was more spotted on than the rest of pollsters predicting the general election results. Maybe this poll looks a bit optimistic for the left and the appointment of a PSOE member at the head was not a good idea, but I think such comments are disrespectful with the professionals of the sociological institute.

I said it's a dump not intrying to say the polls are bad, but just saying there are a lot of them.

As for CIS, I simply view this as "too good to be true". As I've said, there's no reason whatsoever to believe Madrid will have a left wing majority or that Castille-Leon! would be even remotely close. On their defense, their EU poll does indeed look very reasonable though.
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« Reply #646 on: May 09, 2019, 11:21:39 am »

I think the poll is very optimistic in what regards local and regional elections in Madrid. I wish the final results will be close to the CIS predictions, but rightwing parties got more votes in general elections. However, there are reasons to believe in a miracle because the May elections are of a doffrent kind, the Left has good candidates (Gabilondo, Carmena) and there's the possibility of a bandwagon effect. The CIS predicted the Left would win in Valencian regional elections and it occurred, although by a narrower margin. This precedent is not necessarily to be replicated in Madrid, but I don't think the capital of Spain and its region are lost battles for the Left.

Regarding Barcelona, the CIS predicts a narrow advantage for Ada Colau (BComú) over Ernest Maragall (ERC). The GESOP poll predicted the opposite: possibly it will be a tight and exciting contest. However, Ernest Maragall is the favourite to become the next Mayor. The ERC candidate is brother of Pasqual Maragall (PSC), a former Catalan Premier and Mayor of Barcelona. Ernest was before in the PSC and held the Education portfolio in the regional administration led by José Montilla. Later he joined ERC and held the Foreign Action portfolio in the Catalan government led by Quim Torra, replacing Raül Romeva.
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« Reply #647 on: May 10, 2019, 08:43:19 am »

Former PSOE leader and statesman Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba has died

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/10/actualidad/1557464508_194765.html
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« Reply #648 on: May 11, 2019, 09:20:00 am »

Any news about bildu?
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« Reply #649 on: May 11, 2019, 01:37:44 pm »

Any news about bildu?

If you are looking for government formation news, there are none, and won't be until after the regional/EU elections.

Sánchez doesn't seem all that eager to negotiate with ERC and Bildu so I guess he will just gamble on daring them (and JxCat) to vote against him.

It's easy to see Bildu/ERC caving and abstaining (which would give Sánchez a narrow majority on the 2nd ballot) but of course you then have to wonder how will he be able to pass a budget.

Another thing that has to be brought into the equation is the Basque regional elections. In theory they aren't due until Autumn 2020. However it's easy to see a snap Basque election happening this Autumn or Winter. Premier Urkullu has been unable to pass regional budgets, with Podemos, Bildu and PP voting them down in the regional parliament.

It's just a rumour at this point, but since Sánchez will depend 100% on PNV and possibly on Bildu, it's another thing to add into the equation. As if the regional elections weren't enough.

Galicia is also due for regional elections in 2020 but unlike the Basques Feijoo is certain not to call a snap election, especially because of the bad results for the right in Galicia. Feijoo will certainly overperform, but I think he will carry out a full term, especially since he has an overall majority after all, while next term he will be dependent on Cs, Vox or possibly both.
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