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  Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)  (Read 43387 times)
Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #675 on: May 26, 2019, 09:27:14 am »

Turnout at 14:00 was 35.2%; almost exactly the same as in 2015 (34.8%), though much lower than the general election turnout (and higher than the EU election turnout in 2014 of course)

El Diario has a map with the turnout increase/decrease since 2015

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-datos-participacion-municipales-municipio_0_903260057.html

So overall we can't really read much into the turnout reports, if at all
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Velasco
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« Reply #676 on: May 26, 2019, 11:14:34 am »

I went to vote minutes ago. As a resident in the Canary Islands, I had to cast five ballots

European Parliament
Canarian Parliament: regional constituency
Canarian Parliament: insular constituency
Local Elections: Cabildos
Local Elections: councilors

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seb_pard
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« Reply #677 on: May 26, 2019, 11:45:51 am »

Probably the right is going to win Madrid (city). Lower turnout in southern Madrid and higher in the wealthier parts.

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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #678 on: May 26, 2019, 11:55:35 am »

Probably the right is going to win Madrid (city). Lower turnout in southern Madrid and higher in the wealthier parts.



:c
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Velasco
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« Reply #679 on: May 26, 2019, 12:20:42 pm »

Probably the right is going to win Madrid (city). Lower turnout in southern Madrid and higher in the wealthier parts.

Turnout reports don't look very promising, indeed. Yesterday Pablo Iglesias endorsed clearly the rival list led by Carlos Sánchez Mato (Madrid en Pie: IU+Anticapitalistas) which has little chances to reach the 5% threshold but may hurt the list of Manuela Carmena.  Regarding regional elections, I don't want to imagine the Madrid government led by the astonishingly brilliant Isabel Diaz Ayuso. If the left doesn't win in Madrid this time with such rightwing candidates, then it never will. I'll try to remain optimistic until the count comes, fingers crossed...
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #680 on: May 26, 2019, 02:01:09 pm »

Any results?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #681 on: May 26, 2019, 02:10:57 pm »

Exit polls:

Community of Madrid



City of Madrid


Barcelona tie between Colau (Barcelona en Comú) and Maragall (ERC)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #682 on: May 26, 2019, 02:13:11 pm »

I really hope Colau ends un winning.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #683 on: May 26, 2019, 02:17:25 pm »

Exit polls:

Community of Madrid



City of Madrid


Barcelona tie between Colau (Barcelona en Comú) and Maragall (ERC)

Huge win for the left if this is accurate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #684 on: May 26, 2019, 02:20:24 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2
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seb_pard
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« Reply #685 on: May 26, 2019, 02:22:35 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?
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Velasco
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« Reply #686 on: May 26, 2019, 02:30:23 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..
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seb_pard
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« Reply #687 on: May 26, 2019, 02:44:56 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..
Yeah I'm listening Cadena SER and you hear consistently that turnout in strong left areas across the country (Vallecas, Valencia, Cadiz, Valencia, etc.) felt today, and this doesn't correlate with the exit polls.

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« Reply #688 on: May 26, 2019, 03:35:35 pm »

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave
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« Reply #689 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:10 pm »

It seems Carmena has lost.
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #690 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:36 pm »

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave

Winning the Community of Madrid, but Carmena is trailing in the city with 88% in. Shame.
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Velasco
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« Reply #691 on: May 26, 2019, 05:23:58 pm »

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway
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« Reply #692 on: May 26, 2019, 05:39:42 pm »

imagine telling someone a year ago that the PSOE will control La Rioja but not Andalusia
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #693 on: May 26, 2019, 06:05:10 pm »

Ok, with all the data we have in here are the communities where I would argue we need to watch future alliances.

Castille-Leon: PP-Cs have a majority (without Vox) but PSOE topped the poll. It's not inconcievable that Cs goes with PSOE, but it's very unlikely. Still it's a possibility worth watching

Aragon: The combined right (PP-Cs-Vox-PAR) has a narrow majority but PAR is a right-regionalist party which might not be happy doing deals with Vox. If there's a community where a PSOE-Cs deal will happen, it's here.

Canary Islands: In pure Thanos fashion, the islands gave a tied result between the right and left (again, as 2015 already saw a perfect tie). However this time PSOE beats CC both in terms of seats and the popular vote. Common wisdom would assume a PSOE-CC deal with a PSOE but relations between the 2 are quite damaged. Another scenario is the left-insularist ASG propping up a CC-PP-Cs government. Truly bad result in my home region Sad

Worth noting only 73% of the vote is in here, so this could change

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway

Eh, I'd call it already for the right.

Madrid seems to have a left counting bias for some reason (with left wing areas counting earlier), and PP-Cs-Vox already have a majority. It's pretty much over.

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kaoras
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« Reply #694 on: May 26, 2019, 06:17:54 pm »

Also, LOL at Vox at the european elections, they almost managed to lost half of its share in one month.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #695 on: May 26, 2019, 06:24:21 pm »

Well, after the Andalusian elections and especially after the general elections I had been predicting some sort of "realignment" where PSOE would collapse in the South (though might have held through deals with Cs) while winning landslides in peripheral Spain and getting nice results in Madrid and the north.

Apparently that hasn't happened and they have overall majorities in Castille-La Mancha and Extremadura lol

Not only that, but these are the first PSOE overall majorities anywhere since 2007!
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Velasco
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« Reply #696 on: May 27, 2019, 11:42:32 am »

Cs is trying to buy time. The orange party will create a committee to consider the possibility of deals with the PSOE in regions like Castilla y León, Aragon or Murcia. However, the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid are still on the table. In case Vox demands seats in regional and local governments, Cs will be in trouble. Cs candidate Begoña Villacis suggested that, in order to prevent Vox influence, PSOE should back her as mayor of Madrid instead of Manuela Carmena. The acting mayor conceded defeat on election night (despite she came first), ruled out deals with Cs and announced she quits politics.

Manuel Valls threatens to break relations with Cs in case the Albert Rivera party deals with Vox in Madrid. His platform Barcelona pel Canvi ("Barcelona for Change") won 6 seats in the Barcelona City Hall: Valls and other two councilors are independents (one of them is Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister with Zapatero). There is a possibility to orevent thst ERC candidate Ernrst Maragall becomes the next Barcelona mayor. ERC and Ada Colau's party BCOMU are tied at 10 councilors. A deal with ERC and JxCAT could represent the political death of Colau, but the acting mayor could try a deal with the PSC. BCOMU and PSC add 18 councilors and majority is set at 21. In case Manuel Valls and the other two independent councilors allow a coalition between BCOMU and PSC without taking part in government, there is a possibility to prevent that Barcelona has a separatist mayor. It won't be easy as there is an ideological abyss between 'neoliberal' Valls and 'populist' Colau.
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Velasco
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« Reply #697 on: May 28, 2019, 03:50:17 pm »

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #698 on: May 29, 2019, 01:32:06 pm »

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html


Huh, interesting that the few Cs precincts (lolvalls, btw) are enclaved into ERC's general area of strength. Since those are the two parties most far apart from each other, I'd have assumed their voters lived further apart.

More generally, can you explain the sociological patterns for those who aren't familiar to Barcelona's geography?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #699 on: May 30, 2019, 07:52:38 am »

Any news about the elections?
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