Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 24, 2019, 06:06:09 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Eli Gorbinsky)
  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 29 30 31 [32] 33 34 35 36 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 39102 times)
seb_pard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 514
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #775 on: July 10, 2019, 01:49:01 pm »

The PSOE are playing with fire. Now the PNV are considering abstaining. Tremendous irresponsibility from the Socialists.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,547
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #776 on: July 10, 2019, 05:04:34 pm »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Logged
seb_pard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 514
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #777 on: July 10, 2019, 06:40:00 pm »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #778 on: July 10, 2019, 07:28:42 pm »

Political deadlock increases the likelihood of fresh elections

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/09/inenglish/1562685123_273818.html

Quote
Long after Spaniards cast their votes in national, regional and local polls, political parties remain unable to reach governing deals, raising the chances of repeat elections. Most political actors describe the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust, while politicians blame one another for a deadlock that could force an exhausted electorate to return to the ballot boxes ahead of time.

At the national level, a Tuesday meeting between acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Pablo Iglesias of the leftist Unidas Podemos evidenced the divide between two politicians who have been trying to reach a governing agreement since the elections of April 28 (...)

The Socialists – who won the election but fell well short of an overall majority – are still refusing to consider a coalition government with Unidas Podemos.

The most that Sánchez’s party will consider is the possibility of placing independent candidates “of renown” in a few ministerial positions. As an alternative, Podemos members could be offered mid-level government posts.

But Iglesias – whose Unidas Podemos came in fourth at the election with 42 seats, compared with the PSOE’s 123 lawmakers – views this as insufficient.

“What Spain needs is a leftist coalition government, and we hope to convince the PSOE to be more flexible,” said the Podemos leader following the meeting. “[Sánchez’s] position defending a single-party government goes against what citizens voted for. And I think that sooner or later they will rectify.”

The Socialists quickly issued a reply. “Today’s meeting did not bear fruit; it seems that Iglesias is more concerned about Cabinet appointments than about policymaking,” said Adriana Lastra, the party vice-secretary and congressional spokesperson for the PSOE (...)

Deadlock in Madrid

Spanish politics are not just blocked at the national level. A similar scenario is on display in key regions such as Madrid, where a government is yet to be formed following the May 26 election.

The Madrid regional assembly is about to hold an investiture session without any actual candidate to invest with power, and a repeat election will be held if no cross-party agreement emerges before early September.

On Tuesday, the far-right Vox party informed the regional assembly leader that its 12 lawmakers will not support Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP’s nominee to head the Madrid region, at a vote scheduled for Wednesday.

“We are not going to support the [governing] agreement between the PP and Ciudadanos because it is dead,” said Vox’s own candidate to lead the region, Rocío Monasterio. Ever since it burst onto the political scene at the Andalusian elections of December 2018, Vox has been propping up right-wing governments in several parts of Spain without officially joining the executives.

Without Vox’s support, Ayuso has 56 votes (from her own PP and from the center-right Ciudadanos) compared with 64 for the socialist candidate Ángel Gabilondo, who is backed by the PSOE, Unidas Podemos and the leftist Más Madrid group. Neither figure is enough for a majority.

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

The possibility of a PP-Cs alliance in small-sized provinces in addition to further fragmentation in the left and lower turnout could be damaging, indeed. It is rumoured that Íñigo Errejón is planning to enter national politics, expanding Más Madrid ("Más País" would be the provisional name) and seeking regional alliances with parties like Compromís. It'd be a "New Left" party greatly inspired by AOC's "Green New Deal" that would compete against Pablo Iglesias and UP. A new election may precipitate the forming of this new alternative force. Errejón was great in the Madrid assembly, showing once again the huge contradictions of Cs regional leader Ugnacio Aguado. Cs is clearly the weakest link of the Spanish Right.

I read Enric Juliana regularly, but also the conservative analyst José Antonio Zarzalejos: he's former editor of ABC, very smart, dislikes Vox and distanced from Cs due to its cynic attitute towards the far right. Obviously Zarzalejos dislikes Podemos too and his analysis of the strategy followed by Sánchez and his spin doctor Iván Redondo is more favourable. I don't share his point of view, but it's interesting to read

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/notebook/2019-07-06/pedro-sanchez-ivan-redondo-psoe-antoni-gutierrez-rubi_2109295/
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,810
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #779 on: July 10, 2019, 07:31:31 pm »

But on the Right side would not a weaker VOX drag down the Pan-Right seat count by eating up Right votes but falling short of thresholds in many places to get seats in an new election ?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,055
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #780 on: July 10, 2019, 07:59:53 pm »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.

At best you could get a partial deal for the Senate.

There is some precedent for this last option. Back in 2000, PSOE and IU did a deal where IU would drop out in several Spanish provinces for Senate and endorse PSOE. In practice, it didn't work because Aznar won a massive majority.

It is worth noting that Navarra Suma is also not the first regional alliance, especially not for Senate. Back in the Zapatero era, PSOE, ICV and ERC used to run together for Senate in Catalonia as the "Catalan Alliance for Progress" (Entesa Catalana de Progrés).

During the 2015 and 2019 elections (interestingly not 2016 though), Podemos, IU, Bildu and GBai ran together for Senate in Navarra as "Cambio-Aldaketa". The alliance's results were mixed though. In 2015 they beat out PSOE for the last Senator and came really close to beating UPN. However, in 2019 they didn't get any.

And if you care to go that back, it wouldn't even be the first alliance for Congress. Back in the massive PSOE wave of 1982, AP and UCD ran together in the Basque Country.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #781 on: July 10, 2019, 09:46:06 pm »
« Edited: July 11, 2019, 04:52:02 am by Velasco »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.

At best you could get a partial deal for the Senate.

There is some precedent for this last option. Back in 2000, PSOE and IU did a deal where IU would drop out in several Spanish provinces for Senate and endorse PSOE. In practice, it didn't work because Aznar won a massive majority.
.

Don't take for granted that PP and Cs won't make alliances. The Spanish Right has experienced already the consequences of fragmentation under our electoral system. It's possible that Rivera has realized that Cs can't replace PP and is more open to take steps towards the re-foundation of the Big Common House. This is the wet dream of Aznar: reuniting the Spanish nationalist right currently splitted between PP, Cs and Vox is a mid-term strategic goal. While reunification won't happen tomorrow, Cs is already tied to PP and Vox. I think electoral alliances in Senate or small-sized provinces are feasible. They would help to pave the way for the final strategic goal. Also, as Entic Juliana writes today, the right will not let to happen a repetition of elections in Madrid. Vox is asserting its importance, while showing the hypocrisy of Cs. Rocio Monasterio is more clever than Ortega Smith, who was fooled by the promises of the new PP mayor of Madrid. Monasterio will get some concessions from PP and Cs. The astonishing Isabel Diaz Ayuso will likely be elected premier by September

While I understand to some extent the reluctance of Sánchez to have Pablo Iglesias in the government (I've read socialists fear a"Salvini effect", which may be exaggerated but it's not entirely baseless), PSOE has gone too far. Forcing the situation to the point that a new election seems inevitable may end in disaster. Also, making nods to Cs has revealed worthless. Despite the big pressure he's been facing, Rivera has gone too far in his strategy and will never leave the Colón Triumvirate. Cs has never been "liberal" or "progressive", it has been always a modernized version of the Spanish nationalist right. I hope that PSOE and UP find a way; although I don't feel very optimistic
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,092
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #782 on: July 11, 2019, 03:04:49 am »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.


I mean, not if you treat it as a long term goal instead of something that must be achieved immediately. They already fell to the PP this year, and (correct me if I'm wrong) it doesn't really look like they are poised to beat them in a hypothetical election.
Logged
Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,857


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #783 on: July 11, 2019, 05:04:33 am »

I think I may have asked this before but did CIS ever come out with an evaluation of the social traits of voters in the most recent parliamentary election? Previous data did indicate that VOX voters were quite distinct from right-wing populist voters in the rest of Europe.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #784 on: July 11, 2019, 08:39:48 am »

I think I may have asked this before but did CIS ever come out with an evaluation of the social traits of voters in the most recent parliamentary election? Previous data did indicate that VOX voters were quite distinct from right-wing populist voters in the rest of Europe.

According to the last CIS survey, 61.8% of the Vox voters is male. Unlike similar parties in the rest of Europe, Vox has little support in low income households. On the contrary, Vox is the party with the highest level of support in high income families. 63.6% voted for PP in the 2016 elections.

 Previous surveys highlighted other traits. The Vox average voter has 46 years, similar age to the Cs voter, younger than PP (60) or PSOE (55) and older than Podemos (44). The highest level of support is in the age group ranging between 35 and 44, while the support among the older than 65 is low (the oldest vote for PP). The level of education is above average, corresponding to the socioeconomic profile. Regarding professional activities, Vox has a very strong support among militaries and policemen (this was evident looking at certain precinct results in general elections). Other professions trail at great distance, being managers and farmers the following in importance. Unsurprisingly, the Vox voter is much more concerned about separatism in Catalonia than the average Spanish voter.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #785 on: July 11, 2019, 10:46:32 pm »

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Quote
Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,547
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #786 on: July 12, 2019, 11:32:54 am »

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Quote
Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.

The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,055
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #787 on: July 12, 2019, 06:44:20 pm »

To be honest I would much rather have FPTP or AV (or a 2 round system with single member districts like France) than a majority bonus.

IMO a majority bonus is dumb. If you want majoritarian governments switch to FPTP and that at least gives you regional representation and makes individual MPs actually matter instead of being party drones.

We could easily cut Congress to like 15 members if we just weighed their votes!
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #788 on: July 12, 2019, 07:45:32 pm »


The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.

The best way for me is that parties learn to reach compromises and forge agreements. I prefer MMP or PR to FPTP or majority bonus, because I think the former reflect better the people's will than the latter.

Regarding negotiations between PSOE and UP,  I think the main problem is the mutual distrust between Sánchez and Iglesias.  They have differences on econony and the policy towards Catalonia, but they are not irreconcilable. It's the personal factor what makes agreement harder. A possible compromise solution is that PSOE gives up the pretension to govern alone and Iglesias gives up his pretension to be Deputy PM.

Pablo Iglesias will call a plebiscite in order the Podemos grassroots approve his coalition policy, while Andalusian leader Teresa Rodríguez says she won't vote because questions are biased. Rodríguez and her faction oppose a coalition government and favour programmatic agreements similar to the existing in Portugal between PS and the leftist parties.

In other news, Vox is demanding the Madrid regional government the names of LGTB activists that give talks on diversity at schools. It seems obvious Vox aims is to create a "black list" and intimidate activists. Regional government says there are no lists because talks are extracurricular, as well providing that information is illegal. Cs didn't say a word against.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,055
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #789 on: July 14, 2019, 05:14:38 pm »

El Mundo has an extremely interesting article regarding how different groups of people voted. Most of the data isn't new but it's still interesting:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/07/14/5d28bc76fc6c83c84f8b45bc.html

Some notable stuff includes the vote by age. PSOE and especially PP get better results among older people (with a whopping 47% of PP voters being above 65 years old!), Cs and Vox get better results among the middle aged (35-54 roughly) and UP gets its best results among the young.

We also have data on the vote by ideology. Here the most notable thing is how Cs managed to beat PP among the "centre-right" (6/10) while PSOE won centrists (5/10). And unsurprisingly Vox did a lot of harm to PP among far right voters (7-10/10). Whereas Rajoy used to get huge percentages on that area (70% or more), PP only gets around 40% now.

Other data from the text of the article, organized by party:

PSOE
-52% of PSOE voters were women, compared to 55% in 2016
-PSOE has the lowest amount of voters with "Second stage of Secondary Education"* or university studies, though they have improved among this group compared to 2016
-1 in 3 PSOE voters were retired
-A majority of PSOE voters were either retired, unemployed or working class
-The average PSOE voter places himself as a 3.6/10 (where 1 is far left and 10 is far right)

*Second stage of Secondary education refers to people who completed all 12 years of schooling (in Spain only up to year 10 is mandatory), or who did an "intermediate level" vocational training program after year 10

PP
-47% of PP voters were above 65 years old
-53% of PP voters were women
-By education, a plurality of PP voters were people who had only completed primary school
-While Rajoy's electorate was dominated by the "old middle class" and "qualified working class"; Casado's electorate is richer, dominated by the "upper middle class" or the "new middle class"
-PP's voters place themselves as a 7/10

Cs
-Cs improved drastically among old voters (65+); although their voters are still mostly middle aged
-Cs performs slightly better among women than men
-Cs is the party with the most post-high school educated voters alongside UP, with 30% of Cs voters having a university degree.
-Cs performs well among the "unqualified working class" and "technicians and middle workers".
-Cs actually lost quite a bit among the unemployed
-The average Cs voter identifies as a 5.7/10; with people between 6 and 8 increasing and centrists and leftists going down

UP
-UP was the party with the biggest proportion of young voters (18-24) at 14% (compared to 9% for Spain at large)
-UP has more male voters than female voters
-Counter-intuitively, UP has the highest proportion of "upper class" and "upper middle class" voters; and actually improved among these voters. UP meanwhile went down among the "old middle class"
-UP, tied with Cs, had the highest proportion of students with post high school studies while it had the lowest proportion of voters with no education whatsoever
-1 in 10 UP voters were students, and UP went down quite a bit among the unemployed
-The average UP voter identifies as a 2.6/10

Vox
-Vox has the highest proportion of men and it's not even close, with 60% of Vox voters being male
-Vox performs best among the middle aged, with 30% of voters being between 35-44
-22% of Vox voters have post-high school education. This is higher than PSOE and PP but lower than Cs and UP
-Depending on the definition, up to 1 in 3 Vox voters can be considered working class
-26% of Vox voters consider themselves as far-right, compared to 3% for Spain at large.

So, here is my random profile of each party's "generic voter":

PSOE: Retired and relatively poor woman with only primary school education in rural Extremadura
PP: Retired and relatively wealthy woman with no education in rural Galicia
Cs: 50 year old middle ranked businesswoman with a college degree in Madrid
UP: The 22 year old son of a rich family, who lives and studies in Navarra
Vox: 40 year old working class man living in Murcia
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,278
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #790 on: July 14, 2019, 07:00:15 pm »

Why is Murcia so rightwing?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #791 on: July 15, 2019, 07:59:52 am »
« Edited: July 15, 2019, 08:06:17 am by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez says the deal with Podemos is dead in water

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/15/inenglish/1563184342_660104.html

Quote
Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) has announced that his talks with the leftist Unidas Podemos are over, dimming his chances of securing the necessary majority of votes in Congress on July 22 and 23 (...)

On Monday, Sánchez told the Cadena SER radio network that bilateral talks are over after he learned of the content of a internal consultation that Iglesias is about to hold, asking grassroots members what Podemos’ position should be at the investiture vote next week.

The Iglesias plebiscite angered Sánchez,  who claims it's a "masquerade" aimed tp justify the opposition to his investiture. Podemos membership is asked to choose between two options, neither of them including the last offer made by Sánchez: incorporation of Podemos ministers with a "technical profile". Sánchez will try to meet this week with the leaders of the three main opposition parties (including Iglesias, likely Cs leader will refuse), in order to ask them to abstain. PP and Cs already said they won't do it. Investiture is doomed to fail, apparently

Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,134
Chile
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #792 on: July 15, 2019, 10:10:07 am »
« Edited: July 15, 2019, 02:20:23 pm by Lumine »

How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spent months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #793 on: July 15, 2019, 12:38:48 pm »
« Edited: July 16, 2019, 12:32:21 am by Velasco »

How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spend months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.

Sánchez has a great deal of responsibility, that's obvious. However, regardless how questionable has been his attitude in the last months, he's not the only guilty party. The political stalemate is a consequence of the excessive polarization of Spanish politics (this climate dates back to the final days of Aznar and the Madrid bombings) and the lack of grandeur. The era of consensus building is long gone and (additionally) there is no tradition of coalition governments at national level. Political parties are engaged in a war on narratives that is not good for the country.

Regarding A, asking PP and Cs to abstain has the tactical purpose of making the opposition parties responsible for the country's stability and counter the narrative that Sánchez is selling Spain to separatists. While it's reasonable to argue the responsibility to form a government belongs to the leader of the winning party, the apocalyptic tone of Casado and Rivera portraying Sánchez as a traitor to the nation has been damaging and objectionable. So there is a point in asking them to abstain, in order the investiture of Sánchez does not rely on ERC or Bildu. In any case, there is a difference between PP and Cs. It's true that Sánchez championed the "No is No", but it's nonetheless true that he paid a heavy price for that and at the end most of his party abstained for the sake of stability. Casado and the PP can easily find pretexts, though. The case of Rivera and Cs is very different. Given the election results, a deal between PSOE and Cs would have been the obvious choice in normal circumstances. Obviously that's not the case, but apparently Sánchez still had some hopes that Cs turned to a position at least favourable to abstention. The reasons are the approachment between Sánchez and Macron, whom met in Paris immediately after the EP elections, and the tactical move of Manuel Valls in Barcelona. However Rivera didn't move from his initial position, despite he has been pressed from all sides.

It's strange that I have to say this about someone I never liked very much, but Manuel Valls made the only positive thing in this period by offering his votes to Ada Colau in exchange for nothing. The move was replicated by Ïñigo Errejón in Madrid, offering outside support for an alternative regional government formed by PSOE and Cs. Oranges made clear they preferred a separatist as mayor of Barcelona, as well as PP (despite corruption) and Vox (through the back door) to govern the key region of Madrid.

Regarding B, the arguments made by Sánchez are basically the differences on the Catalan question and that PSOE and UP are short of a majority. I think the main reason to oppose a formal coalition is that the perspective of having Pablo Iglesias as Deputy PM is very uncomfortable for Pedro Sánchez. It is certainly hard to imagine that a strong character like Iglesias can accommodate to a "modest" role within the government, in accordance to the weight of UP in parliament. Every statement made by the Podemos leader in that regard had the effect to exacerbate the mistrust of Sánchez. It's not possible to make coalition agreements when there exists mutual distrust, even less after the plebiscite called by Iglesias among his grassroots. Still. they are doomed to reach a compromise and it's entirely reasonable that UP demands to participate in the government. Given that Sánchez was moving from his initial position (minority government, confidence and supply agreement), my opinion is that UP should have been more flexible and patient in negotiations. For instance, accepting to discuss the political platform before discussing who enters the government, as certain PNV leader advised recently.

A repetition of elections could be a potential disaster and in neither case would solve the stalemate, even if the PSOE gets better results. Additionally it would damage the reputation of Sánchez in Europe.      
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,055
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #794 on: July 15, 2019, 01:52:52 pm »

I remember I read an article a while back that pretty much claimed that in other countries with multi-party systems, the burden to form a government is in the government appointed by the informateur or whoever is in charge of coalition building. Meanwhile it seems that in Spain, the burden is not in the government to be formed, but rather in the opposition to not be an obstacle.

Regarding polarization, I would not blame polarization "per se", but rather the multi party system. Back in 2008 polarization was at record highs, and yet Zapatero had no problem whatsoever forming a government. Granted, CiU is a lot more reasonable than the current JxCat and same goes for ERC, but still; if instead of having PSOE at 123 and UP at 42; we had PSOE at something like 163 and UP at 2 (like back in 2008), Pedro Sánchez would probably be PM by now (either that or he fails because of the Catalans)

Also, regarding a snap election, it is possible that PSOE and Sánchez are not looking forward to having an easier path to forming a government, but instead trying to kill off Podemos. A PP-Cs-Vox government is a very far away posibility. Imagine if we got a 2nd election and PSOE held steady at 28% while UP went down to something like 10%.

Finally, there have been moves by Errejón that seem to signal that he wants to create his own party and run. I doubt that will go anywhere, but if it does that also hurts UP by a lot.

I do have to say, even as someone that generally supports Sánchez, that he is probably in the wrong here, though UP has also been extremely inflexible with their demands.
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,092
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #795 on: July 15, 2019, 02:05:51 pm »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:

Imagine if we got a 2nd election and PSOE held steady at 28% while UP went down to something like 10%.

happens, or something like PSOE 33-UP 10, which wouldn't be as far fetched since PSOE is polling really well ATM. Of course that's super risky as well because the right could theoretically rebound to its late 2018 polls where the PP-C's-Vox vote was getting dangerously close to 50%.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,087


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #796 on: July 15, 2019, 02:38:17 pm »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:


Spanish politics is very personality driven and rivalrous (I have once said its worse then GoT's infighting)  so giving Iglesias such a high perch would be a bad idea from the start. That is probably PSOE's sticking point, they would be happy with a coalition but Iglesias would have to sit out or get a background office, a bad deal for Podemos. Of course this all would be made easier if the C's deal was still on the table, the threat of that would have allowed Podemos to no doubt back a minority govt. But once again rivalries threw that possibility out the window. 
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #797 on: July 16, 2019, 01:25:24 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2019, 04:30:38 am by Velasco »

I remember I read an article a while back that pretty much claimed that in other countries with multi-party systems, the burden to form a government is in the government appointed by the informateur or whoever is in charge of coalition building. Meanwhile it seems that in Spain, the burden is not in the government to be formed, but rather in the opposition to not be an obstacle.

If we go to elections in November, the main responsible for that failure will be Pedro Sánchez. The PSOE leader was commissioned by the king to form a government "as soon as possible". Once you accept the commission, it's reasonable to expect that you will try your best to succeed. So the main guilty is always Sánchez, regardless the narrative from La Moncloa.


Regarding polarization, I would not blame polarization "per se", but rather the multi party system.

The multiparty system is the consequence of the people's will. The composition of the Congress reflects a clear mandate: people is demanding that parties negotiate and reach agreements. It's unlikely that we go back to the two-party system. The political stalemate shows that parties are failing to meet the hopes of their voters. In the eventuality of a snap election, the disappointment within the Left is likely to reflect in lower turnout.

Finally, there have been moves by Errejón that seem to signal that he wants to create his own party and run. I doubt that will go anywhere, but if it does that also hurts UP by a lot.


'Más País' represents my last hope to have a national party somewhat close to my views, so I wish Errejón will go somewhere with his project. Given the electoral results in Madrid, I'd say the Podemos founder has a base of support strong enough to win seats in Congress. However, he needs to build an organization in Madrid before extending to the rest of the country. Errejón has an excellent relationship with Mónica Oltra (Compromís), but he needs more time to build a network of regional alliances. A snap election in November is too early for Errejón, but if he runs I have no doubt he will come back to Congress and damage UP.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,055
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #798 on: July 17, 2019, 02:20:45 pm »

While the national government formation process has been the one taking up everyone's attention, for obvious reasons, there have also been many problems at the regional level, much more than usual (remember Spain has only ever had 1 repeat regional election; Madrid 2003; and even that one required PP literally bribing 2 regional PSOE MPs). Anyways, here is how government formation at the regional level looks like:

Governments already formed and sworn in

Castille-La Mancha (PSOE Majority)
Extremadura (PSOE majority)
Cantabria (PRC-PSOE coalition)
Castille-Leon (PP-Cs coalition)
Asturias (PSOE minority with external IU support)
Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)
Balearic Islands (PSOE-Més-UP coalition)

Special cases

Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)
Melilla: Cs mayor elected with literally only 1 seat; propped up by the local muslim party (CpM) and PSOE

No government making votes done yet

Aragon: After Cs rejected a PSOE-Cs government and centrist regionalist PAR rejected a right wing PP-Cs-Vox-PAR government, it seemed the only viable option was PAR defecting and supporting a PSOE-ChA-PAR-Podemos-IU left wing government. PSOE has ruled both with ChA-Podemos-IU and with PAR in the past, so getting both is not imposssible. PSOE and PAR have already reached a deal. It is also very likely that they will reach a deal with ChA. At that point they need IU to support them and Podemos to abstain (or viceversa).

The government formation vote is scheduled for the 30th or 31st of July

Navarra: PSOE, IU, Podemos and big tent Basque nationalist GBai (which functions as a sort of PNV branch in Navarra) have reached a government deal. However they need Bildu to abstain, and PSOE absolutely refuses to negotiate anything with Bildu. So it's unclear whether Bildu will give them a free pass or not.

No government formation vote has been scheduled yet. The deadline for a government to be formed is the 26th of August

Places with already failed government votes

La Rioja: Here PSOE and UP theoretically have enough seats for a bare 1 seat majority. However during negotiations, IU and Podemos (1 seat each) split due to differences regarding coalition building. Just like nationally, Podemos requested seats in the regional executive (IU did not). The first vote failed yesterday. The second vote is scheduled for tomorrow, and there has been a lot of pressure upon the lone Podemos MP, even from her own party, to vote yes. However it's unclear what will happen. The situation is remarkably similar to the national one

Murcia: Here PP and Cs negotiated a coalition deal, and then PP offered to negotiate a separate deal with Vox; very similar to Andalucía. However, Vox rejected these conditions this time and requested a 3 way negotiation with Cs, which Cs categorically refuses. Unlike Podemos, Vox is not requesting any regional executive seats but they do request a direct negotiation with Cs. In the end, Vox voted against the PP-Cs government alongside the left.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 2nd of September

Madrid: The exact same scenario as Murcia (Vox demands a 3 way negotiation with PP and Cs, Cs refuses) except with more attention nationally because of course (it's Madrid after all). The only difference is that instead of a proper government vote, in Madrid they had a "Candidate-less government vote", just to start the clock to count down.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 10th of September

I believe Aragon will almost certainly see a successful government. Navarra is iffy, but I believe Bildu will cave. Finally, I believe internal pressure will force Podemos in La Rioja to cave, even if it may set a bad precedent nationally (though the vote disparity is much larger than nationally and Podemos made some ridiculous demands in La Rioja). The toughest ones to predict are the 2 involving Vox in my opinion.

Of course it is possible that no one caves, whether nationally or regionally and we end up with like 5 separate regional elections in different weeks in Autumn, alongside a national one as well. Sounds fun for political nerds (read: Atlas forum) but I imagine Spaniards will end up tired lol
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,443
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #799 on: July 17, 2019, 05:10:28 pm »
« Edited: July 18, 2019, 09:00:47 am by Velasco »


Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)


Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)

Podemos and IU ran separately in the Canary Islands, so UP is not in the coalition. The electoral coalition led by Noemi Santana was called "Sí Podemos Canarias" and incorporated Podemos,  Sí Se Puede (local party based in Tenerife founded years before Podemos) and Equo. IU ran in its own and failed to win seats. The members of regional government are:

Premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Deputy Premier, Finance and Planning: Román Rodríguez (NC)
Economy, Knowledge and Employment: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Public Works, Transport and Housing: Sebastián Franquis (PSOE)
Ecologic Transition: José Antonio Valbuena (PSOE)
Healthcare: Teresa Cruz (PSOE)
Education, Universities, Culture and Sports: María José Guerra (Ind)
Agriculture, Farming and Fisheries: Alicia Vanoostende (PSOE)
Public Administration, Justice and Security: Julio Pérez (PSOE)
Social Affairs, Youth, Equality and Diversity: Noemi Santana (Podemos)
Tourism: Yaiza Castilla (ASG)

It's worth noting that CC lost two historical strongholds: the Cabildo of Tenerife and the local government of the island's capital Santa Cruz. In both cases thanks to a deal between PSOE and Cs, with the outsie support of Podemos. The Cs councilors in the Cabildo and the Santa Cruz town hall have been suspended provisionally by party leadership. Cs does not believe anymore in "democratic regeneration", apparently

The PP mayor-president of Ceuta rejects categorically deals with Vox. Possibly he will be propped up by PSOE.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 27 28 29 30 31 [32] 33 34 35 36 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC