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  Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)  (Read 43202 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #875 on: August 01, 2019, 10:27:26 am »

"Spain’s voters upset at stalemate but divided over a new election", according to a 40dB poll for El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/08/01/inenglish/1564644095_006608.html

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A study by the pollster 40dB shows that 71.6% of citizens are either upset or at the very least concerned about the way their political representatives have conducted themselves throughout the prolonged post-election period, which ended in a failed investiture bid last week.

Only right-wing and far-right supporters feel that a return to the polls would be a good solution for Spain, which has already gone through three general elections in under four years. The last one, on April 28, was won by the Socialist Party (PSOE) but the party fell short of an overall majority and has been struggling to form a government.

Political instability makes Spain to fall two spots in the Good Governance Index, from 25th to 27th

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/30/inenglish/1564483345_766673.html

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Political instability in Spain is hurting its global image. The country has fallen from 25th to 27th place on the Good Governance Index, compiled by the MESIAS project with support from España Global (or Global Spain), a state agency working to monitor and improve the country’s image abroad.

The index ranks countries in six different areas: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. Spain fell in all parameters from 2016 to 2017 except for rule of law, where it moved up one place to 26th spot. But the most pronounced fall was in the area of political stability, where Spain fell from 33rd to 40th position on the list of 145 countries.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso will be the next premier of the Madrid region leading a PP-Cs coalition government. She has secured the Vox support after Cs accepted the lowered demands of the far right party. According to Cs regional leader and next deputy premier Ignacio Aguado, the parties found a "common denominator" and the document submitted by Vox doesn't affect the previous deal signed by PP and his party. The Vox paper relinquishes the following demands:

 a) reduction of regional governmet members (cabinet posts were increased from 9 to 13, in order to make room for PP and Cs politicians)
b) the modification of LGTBI legislation
c) the transfer to the origin countries of the health costs of irregular immigrants
d) a common deal signed by the three parties: a verbal and public commitment will be enough

Vox opted to focus on issues assumable for PP and Cs such as:

 a) more tax cuts (Madrid is already the Spain's tax haven)
b) creation of a new department of social affairs, family and natality aimed to "reverse the demographic winter")
c) freedom of school choice
d) PP and Cs accept the police has full access to all the data of irregular immigrants collected by regional administration
e) development aid will be used preferentially in regional projects against depopulation
f) all victims of violence, intimidation and harassment will be treated in the same way, preventing they have different levels of protection (this probably implies regional programme against gender based violence will be replaced by generic measures against "domestic violence", but possibly that's contrary to national legislation)

Ángel Gabilondo, the PSOE candidate in Madrid who placed first in elections, deems the Vox paper "disturbing"

A similar arrangement was made in previous days  between PP, Cs and Vox to govern the region o Murcia. The new premier Fernando López Miras (PP) thanked Cs and Vox for their generosity

PSOE will govern Navarre in coalition with GBai, Podemos and IU. EH Bildu held a grassroots consultation and 75% of voters agreed to allow the investiture of the socialist María Chivite with the abstention of their members in regional assembly. 

A coalition deal was reached in Aragón between PSOE, Podemos, PAR and CHA with the additional support of IU. The coalition incorporates the regional left and the centre-right Aragonese Party (PAR), a regionalist force often allied to PP. The PAR rejected a rightwing coalition due to incompatibility with Vox's radical centralism, opting to make a deal with the PSOE. Socialist premier Javier Lambán was reelected yesterday
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Velasco
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« Reply #876 on: September 02, 2019, 07:36:01 am »
« Edited: September 02, 2019, 10:39:26 am by Velasco »

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/02/inenglish/1567410896_725381.html

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Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, trusts that the current political deadlock will be resolved without the need for a repeat general election. In an interview with EL PAÍS he gave on Friday of last week at La Moncloa, the seat of the Spanish government, the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader earnestly defended a “third way” that would also bypass the option of a coalition with the leftist Unidas Podemos.

Sánchez, who will present his latest proposal on Tuesday in Madrid, said that it is based on a common progressive program that should allow him to secure enough parliamentary support to be confirmed as the new prime minister of Spain. He has been heading an acting administration since the election of April 28, which the PSOE won but without a majority to form a government. An investiture session held in July ended in defeat when Sánchez failed to attract the 176 votes he needed. This in turn triggered a countdown for new elections that ends on September 23. Fresh polls would be held in November, and would mark the fourth time Spaniards have been called to a general election in four years.  



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Lumine
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« Reply #877 on: September 02, 2019, 09:31:45 am »

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

His gamble of a new election in which he tries not to be seen as the responsible and gains seats may indeed work, but he hasn't been exactly serious about working with other parties thus far. Victory through attrition Rajoy style in terms of government formation may be clever, but it isn't exactly responsible.
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samm5
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« Reply #878 on: September 02, 2019, 11:01:36 am »

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow
Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?
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Velasco
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« Reply #879 on: September 02, 2019, 11:02:28 am »
« Edited: September 02, 2019, 11:19:44 am by Velasco »

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

Let's see what the last offer is about, but basically is what you say. Either Sánchez & Co expect that Iglesias presses the panic button before day 23, or they are overconfident with the scenario of a new election.

From my perspective, both Sánchez and Iglesias are mistaking. The Podemos leader made a brilliant move in July, when he stepped aside and forced socialists to negotiate a coalition that Sánchez never wanted. However, Iglesias ruined his tactical success by asking too much and rejecting the last offer made by the socialists. Also, appointing someone like Pablo Echenique to talk with the socialists wasn't a wise decision in my opinion. Anyway a coalition agreement is totally impossible now, since there is no way to form a solid and stable government when there is no trace of mutual confidence
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Velasco
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« Reply #880 on: September 02, 2019, 11:14:31 am »

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow
Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?


PP got 33% of the vote and won 137 seats in the repetition of elections that took place in 2016. It was a good result for Rajoy, but clearly insufficient to conform a majority in Congress. I doubt Sánchez will improve that mark in November, so there is no alternative to a deal with Podemos in the present circumstances
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« Reply #881 on: September 02, 2019, 11:51:28 am »

And what will a new election even solve? It will be nearly impossible for PSOE to have a majority without UP. What a waste for the Spanish left.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #882 on: September 02, 2019, 01:31:21 pm »

The complaints of people on here aren't reflected in the polls (for now). SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos are both out with new polls that show the left gaining.

SocioMétrica: https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190901/psoe-podemos-absoluta-cs-perderia-elecciones-noviembre/425957438_0.html

Sigma Dos: https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/02/5d6c0dc5fc6c837f4a8b456e.html

These polls would have the PSOE gaining about twenty seats, UP more or less steady from the election.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #883 on: September 02, 2019, 01:40:13 pm »

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow
Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?


In order to get a majority in Spain, you pretty much need at least 40% of the vote. A good example is the 1989 general election, where Felipe González won exactly 175/350 seats in Congress with 39.6% of the vote. So no, a PSOE majority is impossible.

A government propped up only by regional parties is a bit more realistic, albeit not much more so. Easy to get regional parties would be PNV (6 seats), Compromís (1 seat) and PRC (1 seat), so Sánchez would need at least 168 seats in order to get a majority with them. If he could also get ERC and Bildu to abstain (even as Podemos votes no!) that would bring the required number of seats down as well, probably to the high 150s range, which is doable with 35% of the vote, although realistically it would imply PSOE a bit higher than that.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #884 on: September 02, 2019, 01:47:45 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2019, 01:50:55 pm by tack50 »

Here is also another poll, this time from NC Report / La Razón.

PSOE: 29.5% (127-130)
PP: 21.9% (84-87)
Cs: 13.9% (49-52)
UP: 13.1% (33-36)
Vox: 7.7% (15-17)

https://www.larazon.es/espana/espana-se-abona-al-desgobierno-ningun-bloque-sumaria-mayoria-de-repetirse-elecciones-FG24777992

The Sociométrica / El Español poll also included an interesting alternative poll where PP, Cs and Vox run together in a single coalition (as PP has been suggesting lately, at least with Cs, not so much with Vox; needless to say it's not going anywhere), as well as a Senate simulation (not like the Spanish Senate matters):

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-no-lograria-congreso-movilizaria-izquierda/425958035_0.html

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-provocaria-vuelco-senado-llegar-controlarlo/425958065_0.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #885 on: September 03, 2019, 04:39:46 pm »

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.
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Velasco
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« Reply #886 on: September 04, 2019, 07:11:00 am »

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/03/inenglish/1567518646_547318.html

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Acting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has presented a series of 370 policy pledges to try to convince Unidas Podemos to back his bid to be voted back into office. What’s more he has offered the leader of the left-wing anti-austerity party, Pablo Iglesias, “a rigorous system of control” to ensure that a potential government headed by his Socialist Party (PSOE) sticks to any governing deal (...)

Sánchez also today offered Unidas Podemos – which itself is a coalition of the party founded by Iglesias and the United Left (IU) – “key responsibilities” in state institutions that are not subordinated to the Cabinet. He also called on the parties’ negotiating teams to meet on September 5. Another meeting between Sánchez and Iglesias has yet to be confirmed, but it could take place sometime next week.

Sánchez described the offer as a “triple guarantee” for Podemos, given that it includes an office connected to the Finance Ministry that would ensure that any governing deal is respected; monitoring committees in both Congress and the Senate; and a third guarantee mechanism in which members of civil society would participate. “We don’t want votes at our investiture for free,” Sánchez said of what he described in an interview with EL PAÍS published this past weekend as a “third way” forward, somewhere between the coalition government that Podemos has been demanding, and the PSOE minority government that the acting prime minister is pushing for.

“If the problem with Unidas Podemos is mistrust, let’s build trust and establish maximum guarantees,” Sánchez told a crowd of 700 people today at a presentation of the 370 measures. “Our attitude is sincere, we must not become enemies. We can be loyal allies as we have been in the past.”

Hours before Sánchez took to the stage, during an interview on state broadcaster TVE, Iglesias repeated his demand for Unidas Podemos to be given ministries in exchange for support for the PSOE. But the acting PM today repeated his view that this would be “unworkable” and “unfeasible” after the failure of the investiture vote in July, before which Iglesias had been offered one of the two deputy prime ministerial roles in the Cabinet, and three ministries.

Some of the policy points meet the UP demands, others have slight differences with the UP stance (UP wants to repeal the current labour legislation, while PSOE just wants to reform some controversial aspects) and there's a mention to Catalonia that reflects the PSOE's stance opposing a referendum on self-determination (which UP suports, although it's not a "red line" for them). In spite of the later, apparently ERC would not oppose the investiture of Sánchez in case PSOE and UP reach a deal.

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The policy points announced today by the PSOE include the reversal of labor reforms implemented by the conservative PP, constitutional protection for pension rises, and tax hikes for higher earners and large companies in order to pay for a wide range of social measures.

Some of the other plans include measures to combat “abusive” rent rises, a roll-out of a free daycare system across the country, “low-emission zones” similar to the Madrid Central scheme in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, and a tightening of sexual assault laws to ensure that if a women “does not specifically say yes, everything else is a no.” 

The complaints of people on here aren't reflected in the polls (for now). SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos are both out with new polls that show the left gaining.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.

I'm wondering the same question. As far as I'm concerned, I care more about policies and less about power sharing. Personally I think the relationhip between PSOE and UP is too deteriorated to form a coalition governmet right now. However, I also think that Sánchez would have acted differently in case he was truly committed to reach an agreement. His offer comes less than three weeks before deadline, with little room for anything but "take it or leave it".  Possibly the best way to deal with this would be a gradualist approach, a negotiation step by step (first we agree a common platform and build confidence, then we discuss collaborative mechanisms or a coalition agreement).
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #887 on: September 04, 2019, 07:49:40 am »

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

Worth noting that back in April it was both the left and the right who were energized. It is also worth noting that the Spanish right as a whole needs to be polling close to 50% in order to get a majority because of their division in 3 parties.

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's assume that in the repeat November election turnout will drop to 65%; which mind you would be the lowest in Spanish history, even lower than 2016 (2019 was not that high by historical standards; certainly nowhere near 1982 levels of 80% or even 2008 levels of 74%).

Let's also assume this turnout drop is exclusively because of left wing parties (split proportionally between PSOE and UP), with the right holding all their voters. The popular vote results would be thus as follows. Percentages are after excluding blank/null ballots (which I have kept equal to 2019):

Total turnout in November: 23 984 274
Vote drop April-November: 2 493 866

PSOE: 5 754 966 (24.5%)
PP: 4 373 653 (18.6%)
Cs: 4 155 665 (17.7%)
UP: 2 399 790 (10.2%)
Vox: 2 688 092 (11.4%)

Right bloc: 47.7%
Left bloc: 34.7%

Certainly a commading lead for the right of 15 points (which iirc would be the best result for the Spanish right ever, or at least on par with 2011). However, would it be enough for the right to climb over the 176 seat mark?

With this handy seat calculator, the right would get 181 seats. So, in a repeat election a right wing majority is within the margin of error, though their chances I would put at less than 50% (this is a "perfect" scenario for the right after all). Mind you even if the right falls short and gets like 170 that doesn't mean the left will be able to form a government as that probably implies getting people like Puigdemont's JxCat to openly vote yes, which isn't happening.
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Velasco
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« Reply #888 on: September 06, 2019, 09:43:32 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2019, 09:53:02 am by Velasco »

PSOE and UP delegations met yesterday and talked for nearly five hours. However, there was no significant progress and both parties stand in their initial positions. PSOE and UP concurred they have very distinct positions, stating their willingness to continue talking in spite of their differences. UP spokepersons claim there is still room for compromise, but criticize the "immovable" attitude of the PSOE. Socialists are firm in their rejection to resume the proposal to form a coalition government they made in July. Podemos MP Ione Belarra stated at the end of the meeting that PSOE is unwilling to negotiate and showed her "concern", while MP Yolanda Díaz stated there is time to negotiate and and consider the proposals on the table. The government expects "the new means of dialog" will be completed with a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias.

Previously and with the clear aim of pressing and encircling Podemos, Pedro Sámchez held meetings with the leaders of PRC (acting PM met in Cantabria with premier Miguel Ängel Revilla), PNV (with chairman Andoni Ortuzar in Madrid), while lieutenants José Luis Ábalos and Adriana Lastra met with ERC parliamentary spokesman Gabriel Rufián. PSOE has secured the PRC support already and the PNV endorsement is almost certain (Basque nationalists, however, were upsetted because socialists haven't contacted them this summer), while Gabriel Rufián (his conversion from parliament fool to statesman is amazing) made clear that ERC won't be an obstacle to the investiture of Sánchez and sent a not so veiled message to Pablo Iglesias (implying that maybe the Podemos leader is too obsessed with getting ministries).

Finally the negotiating teams: no changes in PSOE and some new faces in UP

PSOE: Carmen Calvo (Deputy PM), Adriana Lastra (parliamentary spokeswoman) and María Jesús Montero (Minister of Finance)

UP: Pablo Echenique (Podemos secretary for government action), Ione Belarra (MP, replaces parliamentary spokeswoman Irene Montero during her maternity leave), Yolanda Díaz (MP for Galicia en Común, IU member), Jaume Asens (MP for En Comú Podem), Enrique santiago (IU MP, secretary general of the PCE) and Juan López Uralde (MP, leader of Equo)

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/05/actualidad/1567669329_430319.html?rel=lom
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Velasco
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« Reply #889 on: September 09, 2019, 01:21:11 pm »

 No contacts this weekend. PSOE and UP will resume talks tomorrow

GAD3 poll for ABC newspaper

PSOE 32.1% 137
PP 19.9% 82
Cs 14% 45
UP 13.3% 35
Vox 7.9% 14
ERC 3.8% 15
JxCAT 1.9% 7
EAJ-PNV 1.4% 7
Bildu 1% 3
NA+ 0 4% 2
Others 3.3% 3

Turnout 70%

PSOE, UP and PNV would have majority.

Even in this optimistic scenario, Sánchez and Iglesias still need to solve their differences. In case turnout falls below 70% (highly likely, imo), the left will get poorer results in November.
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« Reply #890 on: September 09, 2019, 02:17:50 pm »

It seems another election would be pointless.  While unlikely right would get a majority but not impossible if turnout falls enough, what advantage do either have?  There is no chance of the PSOE getting a majority on its own and Citizens have ruled out working with PSOE, so an agreement between PSOE-Podemos will be needed after November if they are able to form government.  Basically another election means unless in the unlikely event PSOE gets a majority on its own or right wins one, we are back to same place.  So its really in both party's interest to find a way to an agreement.  Seems we have the prisoner's dilemma here, whichever party caves will look bad short term, but long term in terms of policies it serves their interest of each to have a deal.
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Velasco
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« Reply #891 on: September 10, 2019, 09:11:04 am »

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.
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« Reply #892 on: September 10, 2019, 11:43:44 am »
« Edited: September 10, 2019, 11:54:23 am by mileslunn »

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.

And what will elections solve unless the right does really win and wins on its own.  Its not as though PSOE is going to get a majority so will be back to same place again.  For Podemos they are probably better to just go along and even though a climb down, still get the best realistic outcome as after the next election likely will lose seats so less clout and if right manages to win much worse for them.

What is interesting to watch is in Spain gap between Podemos and UP is pretty small compared to gap between Five Star Movement and Democratic Party in Italy yet latter formed a coalition pretty quickly despite differences, former cannot after 5 months so go figure.
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« Reply #893 on: September 10, 2019, 12:18:49 pm »

What is interesting to watch is in Spain gap between Podemos and UP is pretty small compared to gap between Five Star Movement and Democratic Party in Italy yet latter formed a coalition pretty quickly despite differences, former cannot after 5 months so go figure.

I don't think it's got to do with differences or gaps as much as the fact that parties in Spain are actually 'proper' parties - they have clearly distinct ideology, longer history, larger membership and actual principles (not that UP aren't just being pig-headed at this point), while Italians are more, er, pragmatic. Also, Spanish politicians aren't really used to coalitions.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #894 on: September 10, 2019, 03:11:44 pm »

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.
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Velasco
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« Reply #895 on: September 10, 2019, 03:24:20 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2019, 04:09:23 pm by Velasco »

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.

Now the context is different. Many in UP suspect one of the main reasons to call elections is that Sánchez is trying to exterminate them and pursuing a comeback of the two-party system. As some PNV spokeperson said today: neither PSOE nor UP are rising to the occasion. They are disappointing the expectations of their voters and maybe they will have to pay a price

EDIT: While there exists a huge rivalry and mistrust between PSOE and UP, they are nothing if compared with the hostility between PD and M5S in Italy. I think it's obvious PSOE and UP are lacking pragmatism and professionalism. Shame on them.
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Velasco
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« Reply #896 on: September 11, 2019, 12:53:28 pm »

This morning in parliament Pablo Iglesias asked Pedro Sánchez a face-to-face meeting to unlock the investiture, but the acting PM refused. Sánchez told the Podemos leader that, in case there is an alternative proposal to the coalition government, he can call the negotiation table. The impression is that Pedro Sánchez and spin doctor Iván Redondo are determined to go to elections and destroy Podemos, while Iglesias is making a desperate attempt to save the situation and survive. However, repetition of elections is like playing Russian roulette and we ignore what's the information held by the government. Maybe Sánchez and Redondo are gambling, in order to force Iglesias to cave in and support investiture in exchange for nothing. Recent polls report increasing pessisism on the political and economic situation. This is not a good environment to call elections.
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« Reply #897 on: September 12, 2019, 03:22:50 am »

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html
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« Reply #898 on: September 12, 2019, 02:43:07 pm »

The king calls political leaders for a last round of talks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/12/inenglish/1568291663_895588.html

Quote

Spain’s King Felipe VI has summoned political leaders to a last round of consultations to determine a prime ministerial candidate ahead of a possible investiture vote, according to a press release from La Zarzuela royal palace. The meetings, which will take place on September 16 and 17, will be the last before Spaniards are potentially called back to the polls once more, with a likely November 10 vote marking the fourth time in as many years that Spain holds a general election.6 

Catalan independence rally draws the smallest (but still impressive) crowd in seven years. Currently there exists division within the independence movement. The Diada takes place every year on September 11

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/more-than-half-a-million-call-for-catalan-independence

Quote
  More than half a million people have gathered in Barcelona on Catalonia’s national day (Diada) to renew calls for regional independence as Spain awaits the verdict in the landmark trial of 12 separatist leaders over the failed breakaway bid two years ago.

Despite the politically charged atmosphere, police in the Catalan capital said that around 600,000 people had taken part in the annual event – dramatically down on the 1 million who turned out for the previous two Diadas. 

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns



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« Reply #899 on: September 13, 2019, 03:34:18 pm »
« Edited: September 13, 2019, 03:49:53 pm by Velasco »


El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

Results in other rich sections of LPGC follow a similar pattern: PP ahead with Cs performing a strong second, PSOE is usually third and strong results for Vox (notice this party is relatively weak in the Canaries, with average results in general election between 6% and 7%)

The poorest section is located in a neighbourhood called El Polvorín, a slum area of degraded residential blocks. District 4 ,Section 59 LPGC. Income 5628

PSOE 47%, UP 14%, PP 14%, Cs 8%, CC 6%, Vox 4%, Others 6%

The poorest section in Gran Canaria island is in a place called Valle de Jinámar, located in the neighbouring municipality of Telde (District 1, Section 61. Income 4756). Pretty similar results: PSOE 43%, UP 21%, PP 10%, Cs 8%, CC 4%, Vox 4%, Others 9%.  
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