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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 50024 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #950 on: September 20, 2019, 01:44:29 pm »
« edited: September 20, 2019, 03:14:07 pm by Velasco »

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/20/mas-madrid-lanzara-su-candidatura-a-las-generales-en-los-proximos-dias/

Más Madrid is IN for the general elections. Errejón will probably lead the list, as Carmena declined to be a candidate. So far it's unknown where they plan to compete.

I read in El Confidencial that Errejón & Co will try to convince Carmena until the last minute, but it's more likely that she won't be the candidate. I think that Más Madrid will only run in the Madrid constituency with Errejón at the top (unless Carmena changes her mind). It's too early to run lists in other constituencies without organization and Errejón would be accused of "dividing the left". In case of winning a sizeable amount of seats for Madrid (let's say 3 or 4), I guess MM could join Compromis after the elections in order to create a parliamentary group (unless there's a coalition between UP and Compromis in Valencia). There's a window of opportunity for Errejón, given the failure of PSOE and UP. According to a recent Invymark poll for La Sexta, 1/3 of PSOE and 1/2 of UP voters could consider the possibility to vote for a party led by the Podemos co-founder.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #951 on: September 20, 2019, 03:02:06 pm »

Madrid getting a Madrid nationalist party has to be peak Spanish politics Tongue

(Yes, Errejon's party is not going to be nationalist or even regionalist in any meaningful way but still)
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Velasco
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« Reply #952 on: September 20, 2019, 03:31:13 pm »

Madrid getting a Madrid nationalist party has to be peak Spanish politics Tongue

(Yes, Errejon's party is not going to be nationalist or even regionalist in any meaningful way but still)

I might be biased, cause I side with Errejón. However it's undisputable there's a great anger among leftwing and progressive voters, which dimension might have been miscalculated by Sánchez's spin doctors (Iván Redondo is always the main suspect). It's possible that many voters are sick of the caudillo style of leadership and are willing to give a chance to other type of politicians, less dogmatic and egocentric. It's obvious that, sooner or later, Errejón will try to jump into national politics again. Maybe new actors  are necessary to bring a breath of fresh air in this strained environment.  
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« Reply #953 on: September 20, 2019, 04:53:58 pm »

I sort of understand how Errejón is different from Iglesias in practical terms and perhaps on their different interpretations of how a party should be organized, but ideologically speaking, is there an actual difference?

Or is the perception of Errejón as sort of a more "moderate" figure (something I've read in newspapers, may not be accurate) based on his conception of politics and his criticism of Iglesias's insistence on a coalition and on having Podemos ministers in government?
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Velasco
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« Reply #954 on: September 21, 2019, 06:44:47 am »
« Edited: September 21, 2019, 06:52:01 am by Velasco »

I sort of understand how Errejón is different from Iglesias in practical terms and perhaps on their different interpretations of how a party should be organized, but ideologically speaking, is there an actual difference?

Or is the perception of Errejón as sort of a more "moderate" figure (something I've read in newspapers, may not be accurate) based on his conception of politics and his criticism of Iglesias's insistence on a coalition and on having Podemos ministers in government?

I think there are no big ideological differences between Errejón and Iglesias in what regards concrete policy measures. One could say there are many coincidences between the PSOE and UP platforms as well, except for issues like the Catalan referendum (my impression is that Errejón avoids the question and is less 'sympathetic' to sovereigntism than Iglesias or Colau). Iglesias has a discourse and highlights issues more common to the 'traditional left' (workers' rights, big corporations, etc), while Errejón is more associated to the 'new left' (feminism, LGTB rights, ecology). However, at the end of the day they stand for similar things. Their main differences are on style and strategy. Iglesias is a charismatic, tough and combative leader; Errejón is more 'soft power', flexible and open to dialogue. In terms of negotiating strategy, Errejón is open to things unthinkable to Iglesias. For instance, the leader of Más Madrid proposed outside support to a coalition deal between PSOE and Cs in the region of Madrid. It's difficult to imagine Iglesias and other Podemos leaders proposing such 'lesser evil solutions', although there are very exceptional cases at local level (PSOE and Cs made coalition agreements in Tenerife with the outside support of Podemos, but the Cs councilors were expelled from the party). Also, Errejón is obsessed with avoiding the same mistakes made in Podemos (they improvised a hierarchical organization too dependent on the leader, which ultimately proved to be rather weak), as well he wants to take a very different road trying to appeal broader audiences (UP, PSOE and even Cs voters) avoiding the Podemos' turn to IU 2.0. In what regards the failed 'negotiation' to form a coalition government, the Errejón faction has criticized both the PSOE's attitude and the UP's "lack of generosity".
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rob in cal
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« Reply #955 on: September 21, 2019, 07:14:48 am »

Any developments in terms of a pp and c electoral alliance? .without that, can't see much hope for improvement on the right.
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Velasco
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« Reply #956 on: September 22, 2019, 01:46:31 am »

90% of Spaniards angered, disappointed or worried by political deadlock, says 40dB poll for El País



GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia




Más Madrid will hold a meeting this evening. Elected officials and grassroots members will discuss whether the party participates in general elections. Errejón will not attend, in order not to influence the decision. Manuela Carmena ruled out to be the candidate, but MM municipal spokeswoman Marta Higueras says the former Madrid mayor will give full support to Errejón if he decides to run.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #957 on: September 22, 2019, 02:41:05 pm »

Errejón officially running, the party assembly passed the motion to run in the general election in a landslide.

Still no idea if they will run only in Madrid; in Madrid plus a handful of provinces with a lot of seats (Valencia, Barcelona, Seville, etc) or in all of Spain. I think it will probably be the 1st or 2nd, I can't see MM getting enough people to run everywhere in 2 weeks or so, even if they managed to get into enough deals with regional parties
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Velasco
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« Reply #958 on: September 23, 2019, 10:17:46 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2019, 10:22:09 am by Velasco »

According to El Independiente, Errejón wants to compete in the 17 most populous provinces

Madrid (37 seats); Barcelona (32); Valencia (15); Alicante and Seville (12); Málaga (11); Murcia (10); Cádiz (9); Baleares, A Coruña, Las Palmas and Vizcaya ( 8 ); y Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife snd Zaragoza

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/23/errejon-concurrir-10-n-provincias-siete-escanos/

Possible allies: Compromis (Valencia and Alicante; might run with UP), Mes (Balearic Islands) and Equo. The small green party is actually splitted in two factions: the current leadership might join 'Más Pais', while the faction led by Juantxo López  de Uralde will remain loyal to UP.

Question: will Pedro Sánchez sleep and have sweet dreams after November 10?

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« Reply #959 on: September 23, 2019, 10:37:44 am »

According to El Independiente, Errejón wants to compete in the 17 most populous provinces

Madrid (37 seats); Barcelona (32); Valencia (15); Alicante and Seville (12); Málaga (11); Murcia (10); Cádiz (9); Baleares, A Coruña, Las Palmas and Vizcaya ( 8 ); y Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife snd Zaragoza

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/23/errejon-concurrir-10-n-provincias-siete-escanos/

Possible allies: Compromis (Valencia and Alicante; might run with UP), Mes (Balearic Islands) and Equo. The small green party is actually splitted in two factions: the current leadership might join 'Más Pais', while the faction led by Juantxo López  de Uralde will remain loyal to UP.

Question: will Pedro Sánchez sleep and have sweet dreams after November 10?



But would this not also shift some seats to the Right if this splits the Podemos  even if POSE gains so,e too ? So why is Sánchez that much better off under this scenario ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #960 on: September 23, 2019, 11:29:12 am »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/23/spanish-police-arrest-catalan-separatists-on-suspicion-of-terrorism

"Spanish police arrest Catalan separatists on suspicion of terrorism"
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Velasco
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« Reply #961 on: September 23, 2019, 11:44:40 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2019, 11:48:32 am by Velasco »

But would this not also shift some seats to the Right if this splits the Podemos  even if POSE gains so,e too ? So why is Sánchez that much better off under this scenario ?

I didn't say this scenario is going to be better or worse for Sánchez. I was referring to some recent statements made by the acting PM, who  told to a journalist that he couldn't sleep easily with Podemos in the government. Sánchez claims that Podemos people lacks experience (which is true, but this also rules for some of the ministers picked by him) and can't manage important portfolios. This sounds arrogant and disrespectful, but it might help UP in the campaign (it will be hard for Iglesias anyway). It's early to know the effect of the new party. Splitting the leftwing vote in three is not necessarily bad in big constituencies like Madrid, providing that all parties cross the threshold. Electoral hurdles increase in smaller constituencies. If we compare the results of the general and regional elections in Madrid, we could draw some interesting conclusions. Anyway Errejón will have to compete against Iglesias this time, so the correlation of forces will be presumably different. The key factors are how many voters the new  party catches from UP or PSOE and turnout.

Amazingly there are polls running around. El Español says 5.8% and 6-10 seats for the new party in the following cpnstituencies: Madrid (2-3), Barcelona (2-3), Sevilla (1-2), Valencia (1), Alicante (0-1). Total results would be Left 165/Right 159

 https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190922/espanol-publicara-edicion-primera-encuesta-incluye-errejon/431207122_0.html
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« Reply #962 on: September 23, 2019, 01:01:14 pm »

Looking at polls it seems Sanchez decision to go is backfiring.  Not enough for the right to win, but all signs are forming a government will be harder not easier so his strategy seemed more based on ego.  C's are declining heavily, but more of that is going to PP than PSOE while UP is holding up.  Things could change, but a PSOE + regionalist parties seems unlikely so someone will have to bend after unless right wins a majority.  Also PSOE + C's looks to be a bit short meaning it may mean regionalist parties play balance of power, although I think most of them would prefer PSOE to seek support from UP than C's.
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jaichind
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« Reply #963 on: September 23, 2019, 01:14:48 pm »

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.
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Velasco
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« Reply #964 on: September 23, 2019, 04:48:22 pm »

Spokeswoman Monica Oltra and deputy Joan Baldoví announced tonight that Compromís will ally with Errejón. They appreciated the "generous offer" made by UP, but stated the majority feeling within Compromís was to join forces with the 'Más País' project. Ideally they would have preferred a joint list incorporating all parties to the left of PSOE, but that's not possible. Compromís governs in the Valencian Community with PSOE and UP. Mónica Oltra is deputy premier in the regional government led by the socialist Ximo Puig.  Tomorrow we will know more
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« Reply #965 on: September 23, 2019, 08:04:18 pm »

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.

PSOE-C's would have been the natural progression of things, if everyone didn't have egos the size of Spain. Now PSOE thinks they can monopolize the center, and C's thinks they can be the Salvini of Spain - though we will only learn about latter's potential once he hits the campaign trail and attempts to reverse the present decline
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« Reply #966 on: September 23, 2019, 08:54:18 pm »

C's thinks they can be the Salvini of Spain

Huh
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« Reply #967 on: September 23, 2019, 09:07:40 pm »


Ever since the last Election,  Casado has taken the party rightwards. He cracked down on C's locals allying with PSOE and other leftists, he purged a remaining 'macron-type' liberals from the party, and has embraced the anti-Catalan part of their platform. In part, the time was ripe after the results came in, C's could try and out-right PP and gain more  voters, and absorb VOX who failed to take off. Of course, things didn't work out that way, at least so far. Now, the title 'Salvini of Spain' does not include Salvini's key proposals like Migrant cutting. Instead it revolves around a worldview an electoral strategy: pairing right wing cultural outrage (that gives you more votes beyond ones normal reach) with traditional right wing bases - Italy the North, Spain the 'market-liberal' style Conservative suburbs. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #968 on: September 24, 2019, 01:43:41 pm »

Supreme Court backs the exhumation of Franco's remains. Hopefully it will be solved before the elections take place

https://www.politico.eu/article/generalisimo-francisco-franco-grave-remains-exhume-court-backs-exhumation/

Quote
Spain’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Francisco Franco's remains can be removed from the Valley of the Fallen, endorsing the Socialist government's plans against his descendants' will.

The generalísimo's body is set to be disinterred from the giant mausoleum on the outskirts of Madrid — a basilica dug into a hillside topped by a cross 150 meters high — and relocated to a more discreet cemetery at Mingorrubio, also close to the capital, where Franco’s wife is buried.
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Velasco
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« Reply #969 on: September 25, 2019, 07:21:53 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2019, 10:19:05 am by Velasco »

Participants the Sunday meeting decided by acclamation that Más Madrid will participate in elections. More details will be revealed in another meeting this evening, particularly the name of the candidate (Íñigo Errejón, in all likelihood), the name of the project (Más País?), the places where it's going to compete (allegedly provinces with 7+ seats) and the alliances with other parties. Given that Más Madrid does not exist outside the capital region and lacks territorial organization, alliances with existing parties are necessary. Errejón already scored a point with Compromís in the Valencian Community, but alliances in other regions seem much more uncertain. The UP regional allies in Catalonia and Andalusia remain loyal to Iglesias, although in the southern region the organization led by Teresa Rodríguez is seeking to replace Unidas Podemos by Adelante Andalucía in the ballots. Equo, a small environmentalist party with nationwide presence, might split in two: in case the party joins Errejón, the faction led by Juantxo López de Uralde (MP for Álava) will leave and stay in UP. Another Equo member is Madrid councilor Inés Sabanés: the woman who crafted the 'Madrid Central' sides with Errejón and acted as the MM spokeswoman after the last meeting. Some regionalist parties might join Errejón too, including Aragonese Union (Chunta Aragonesista or CHA), En Marea (Galicia) and even New Canaries. However, the ecosocialist and sovereigntist MÉS is more likely to repeat alliance with ERC in the Balearic Islands.

The surge of a new force in the Spanish Left makes previous polls obsolete. I found an interesting estimation of the' Errejón Effect' in El Mundo

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/25/5d8a772a21efa020248b461e.html


The graphs show three scenarios: 1) Errejón doesn't run; 2) Errejón runs in provinces with 7+ seats; and 3) Errejón runs in all provinces. The results simulation is made on the assumption that the new party will catch 37.5% of UP and 11.5% of PSOE voters in April. There are some provinces where the UP's sole representative could be in danger: namely Zaragoza (Pablo Echenique), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Alberto Rodríguez) and Murcia.

In the graph beelow, vote estimation and % of seats

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The Saint
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« Reply #970 on: September 25, 2019, 09:52:20 am »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.
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Velasco
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« Reply #971 on: September 25, 2019, 10:25:05 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2019, 10:35:36 am by Velasco »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.
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The Saint
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« Reply #972 on: September 25, 2019, 10:58:17 am »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.
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Velasco
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« Reply #973 on: September 25, 2019, 11:19:06 am »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.

I criticized electomania for saying that's a scoop, not you for posting. There's no reason to apologize. Excuse me if I looked angry
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The Saint
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« Reply #974 on: September 25, 2019, 11:42:26 am »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.

I criticized electomania for saying that's a scoop, not you for posting. There's no reason to apologize. Excuse me if I looked angry

Haha no problem. Sorry for the misunderstanding Smiley
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