Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 17, 2019, 01:28:07 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33146 times)
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,873
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: February 16, 2019, 03:19:18 pm »

There was another poll today which seems to be a lot more reasonable than the GESOP one

GAD3 for La Vanguardia



There will probably be a third one published, this time by Sociométrica-El Español
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,979


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: February 16, 2019, 04:17:11 pm »

There was another poll today which seems to be a lot more reasonable than the GESOP one

GAD3 for La Vanguardia



There will probably be a third one published, this time by Sociométrica-El Español

Interesting how C's+PSOE has a majority here, but the Right wing Triumvirate doesn't despite having a higher combined vote-share then C's+PSOE. This basis appears to be built on VOX a horrible vote/seat ratio, worse then even C's during their peak last winter. I guess we really have no idea how the VOX vote will be distributed in this regard, with the obvious exception being high voteshares in the exclaves.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: February 16, 2019, 04:50:14 pm »

I don't think the GESOP poll is unreasonable. It's assuming that VOX is eroding the PP and the Cs base in a greater extent than the GAD3 poll does. Given that VOX is setting the agenda of the other two right wing parties, it's plausible. It's worth noting that GESOP predicts the ERC hegemony in the Catalan nationalism, at the expense of the total collapse of the PDeCAT. I think both pollsters are interpreting vote transfers within blocks (left, triunvirate and separatists) in a different way.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2019, 07:07:11 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2019, 12:38:35 pm by Velasco »


Interesting how C's+PSOE has a majority here, but the Right wing Triumvirate doesn't despite having a higher combined vote-share then C's+PSOE. This basis appears to be built on VOX a horrible vote/seat ratio, worse then even C's during their peak last winter. I guess we really have no idea how the VOX vote will be distributed in this regard, with the obvious exception being high voteshares in the exclavI thies.

The seat allocation is not easy to estimate, but there are models that provide an approximate result. It's important to remark the seat allocation is not based on nationwide results, rather it's based on the addition of the results in the 52 districts (50 multi-member corresponding to provinces; 2 single-member corresponding to autonomous cities). We actually have 52 general elections in Spain (one for every district, in Congress and Senate).

I think these polls show that there's a little ray of light for Pedro Sánchez, thanks to the particular nature of our electoral system. Most of the provincial electoral districts have less than seven seats. The parties placed first and second have a bonus in seat allocation, while third parties below 15% have a bad vote/seat ratio. In case the PSOE manages to come in first place with a result not far from 30% and 120 seats, I think it's pissible to avert a majority for the Triple Alliance. We have the precedent of the 2015 elections, with the PP coming first (28.7%, 123 seats) and the left wing parties winning less seats than PP and Cs, despite their higher combined vote share.

The majority suppprting the no confidence motion against Rajoy could not be replicated, according to the last poll. However, it'd be interesting to see how Albert Rivera would act in a scenario in which PSOE and Cs have the numbers and the Holy Trinity falls short of a majority, given that he and other Cs spokepersons say they'll never support the 'traitor' Sánchez.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,979


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2019, 07:25:16 pm »

Oh I understand how seats are allocated in Spain, that's why I mentioned the awful Vote/seat ratio, and compared it to C's's surgee. Back then, C's wasn't polling a full 'slate' of seats on it's vote/seat ratio - the surge votes were coming more from strongholds rather then evenly dispersed.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2019, 11:27:33 am »

Pedro Sánchez is already in campaign mode. He called to mobilization in a crowded act taking place this morning in Mérida, alongside with the Extremadura premier Guillermo Fernández Vara. The PSOE leader appealed to progressives and centrists. "The threat exists, we are seeing it in Europe and other parts of the world" said Sánchez in reference to the far right rise in Europe and the Bolsonaro takeover in Brazil. Other messages conveyed by Sánchez: conquering the future instead of going backwards; moderation, progress, common sense and dialogue against the aggressive nationalism of the Spanish Right* and the demands of the Catalan separatists. Yesterday Pedro Sánchez attended a campaign act in Seville, alongside with Susana Díaz. He focused on employment and social advancements.

* There is a testosterone overload that affects the leaders of the "triphallic right", according to Justice minister Dolores Delgado. She meant that the Spanish Right has three heads ("Tricéfala"), but her lapsus has provoked some jokes Grin

 In the cabinet meeting held on Friday the government finally approved the exhumation of the Franco's remains:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550228747_208145.html

Quote
he Spanish government is planning on approving an agreement at a Cabinet meeting on Friday that would give the final green light for the exhumation of the body of dictator Francisco Franco from the controversial Valley of the Fallen monument, located northwest of Madrid. The agreement outlines that the government has the “legal mandate” to remove the dictator’s tomb from a place of worship. Once approved, the Franco family will have 15 days to choose an alternative resting place for the dictator.

The following piece explains which policies will have to be shelved as a general election is called

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550228667_985380.html

Quote
he rejection of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s 2019 budget plan has forced his Socialist Party (PSOE) government to call a general election for April 28. Eight-and-a-half months after he took power, thanks to a motion of no confidence, Sánchez is bringing an end to the shortest mandate since Spain returned to democracy in the late 1970s.

What began in June of last year as an ambitious project, with
a Cabinet where women were in the majority, has not been able to survive governing in a minority, given the conditions that the parties that support Catalan independence imposed on the prime minister in return for keeping him in power.

A large number of projects will now fall by the wayside. The intention of Sánchez’s government was, right from the start, to see out the legislature until 2020, and he announced a raft of policies and measures that he intended to pass through Congress in the coming months. Now they will be put on standby, ahead of the result of the elections. Here are some of those key policies (...)

Also, Pedro Sánchez released his "Survival Manual". He reveals some details on how the no confidence motion was forged. This is another campaign act, of course.

[/center]

The political correspondent of El País Carlos E Cué wrote a good story back in the day

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/04/inenglish/1528097589_351691.html

Quote
The worst week in the long political life of Mariano Rajoy began with a party. It was a Wednesday; the skies over Madrid were dark, presaging a storm, and the Spanish prime minister was tired but elated. At the eleventh hour, faithful to his resist-to-the-end style, he had managed to push through the budget plan with support from Ciudadanos and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) (...)



 
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,286
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2019, 12:24:40 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2019, 01:17:15 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2019, 02:43:48 pm by Velasco »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.

There is an extreme volatility with sudden turns in public opinion, so we should be cautious with analyses and intetpretations. I think the only prediction that we can support right now is that PSOE, Cs and of course VOX will get better results, while PP and UP are bound to lose support. In the case of Cs, I think the picture in Colon Square and the government deal in Andalusia, which undeniably associate the oranges with the far right, are potentially harmful. At least the PSOE will try to take advantage of these developments to recover ground in the centre. The talks policy damaged PSOE in previous months (additionally the crisis in Catalonia exacerbates division within the party), as well the bad communication policy: the Calvo's blunder with the "mediator" was the origin of the political storm that ended in the Colon Square rally, a failed sttempt of the Spanish Right to bring Sánchez down with a massive demonstration. The attendance was around 50k, a clear underperformance. In addition the picture of the Triple Alliance gives ammunition to the PSOE. Some people say the failure of the Colon Square rally and that picture determined Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle to call elections in April. I think your assumption that moderate Cs voters may turn to PP over that picture doesn't make much sense, because Pablo Cssado is a hardcore conservative with stances close to VOX. The Santiago Abascal party was the only winner in Colón Square. On the ither hand, VOX is growing mainly at the expense of PP but also at the expense of Cs. The result of VOX within the rightwing block may determine if the Triple Alliance wins a majority or not
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,286
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2019, 02:28:19 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.

There is an extreme volatility with sudden turns in public opinion, so we should be cautious with analyses and intetpretations. I think the only prediction that we can support right now is that PSOE, Cs and of course VOX eill get better results, while PP and UP are bound to lose support. In the case of Cs, I think that the picture in Colon Square and the government deal in Andalusia, which undeniably associate the oranges with the far right, are potentially harmful. At least the PSOE will try to take advantage of these develooments to recover ground in the centre. The talks policy damaged PSOE in previous months (additionally the crisis in Catalonia exacerbates division within the party), as well the bad cpmmunication policy: the Calvo's blunder with the "mediator" was the origin of the political storm that ended in the Colon Square rally, a failed sttempt of the Spanish Right to bring Sánchez down with a massive demonstration. The attendance was around 50k, a clear underperformance. In addition the picture of the Triple Alliance gives ammunition to the PSOE. Some people say the failure of the Colon Square rally and that picture determined Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle to call elections in April. I think your assumption that moderate Cs voters may turn to PP over that picture doesn't make much sense, because Pablo Cssado is a hardcore consrrvative with stances close to VOX. The Santiago Abascal party was the only winner in Colón Square. On the ither hand, VOX is growing mainly at the expense of PP but also at the expense of Cs. The result of VOX within the right wing block may determine if the Triple Alliance wins a majority or not
Interesting. When i say moderate C's voters coming back to PP, I mean former PP voters that were a bit turned off by the corruption scandals and all, and now are coming back to PP because C's seems to be just like PP. But, you're right, that maybe doesn't makes sense.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2019, 06:00:18 pm »

Interesting chronicle of the NYT correspondent Raphael Minder from El Ejido, the Andalusian stronghold of VOX. Minder is the author of a book entitled 'The Struggle for Catalonia'

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/world/europe/spain-elections-vox-far-right.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSpain&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection

Quote
Wedged between the mountains and the Mediterranean Sea, the Almería province of southern Spain was once a setting for the spaghetti westerns that turned Clint Eastwood into a star.

These days, shimmering miles of plastic greenhouses stretch to the horizon, incubating the tomatoes, peppers and other produce that have transformed this once impoverished region into a farming hub.

But the most important seed growing here along Spain’s southern coast may be that of Vox, Spain’s first far-right party since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975 (...)

PP, Cs and VOX seek to differentiate their offer in order to catch all the vote right of the centre, says a chronicle in El País. The parties of the Triple Alliance have a total coincidence in what regards the implementation of direct rule in Catalonia (VOX goes further, advocating the suppression of all regional autonomy). Other headlines: "Casado whips out fear of chaos if the PP doesn't win". "Rivera encourages to bury the Two Spains (the "reds" and the "blues")". There's another article talking about the strategies to escape (or not) from the Colón Square picture. The Spanish Right seeks to transform that picture in government deals, while the Left seeks to use it to mobilize voters.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/16/actualidad/1550342351_459051.html

Another interesting headline in El Confidencial, a centre-right leaning digital paper: "Spain has no room to implement a great tax cut". Is this a message for the triumvirate (particularly for Pablo Casado)?

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2019-02-17/casado-promesa-bajada-impuestos-margen_1830074/

eldiario.es: "Podemos seeks to renew its alliances in the middle of a serious crisis to become a party of government"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-IU-aliados_0_868263923.html

Meanwhile Manuela Carmena and Íñigo Errejón launched their campaign in Madrid: the act was a big breakfast (handmade fairy cakes and chocolate) with 2000 supporters in a working class neighbourhood called Villaverde

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/Carmena-Errejon-arrancan-campana-conjunta_0_868613262.html

The Minister of Public Works José Luis Ábalos was insulted by a semiretired policeman yesterday night in Mérida (Extremadura). The offender called "Rojo" ("Red") to Ábalos, so presumably the ideology of that man is "Blue" (or maybe "Vox Green").

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/17/5c69900321efa0be238b4662.html



Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2019, 07:27:51 pm »

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,873
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 17, 2019, 07:59:44 pm »

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.

Well, no one really knows, but the more the better. (Try to think of Spain's seat to vote ratio as exponential instead of linear)

Keep in mind that the vote-seats ratio is not only dependant on the party's results, but also in the results of everyone else.

A good example is that PSOE got 175 seats (exactly half) in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote.

Meanwhile in 2008 PSOE got only 169 seats with 43.7% of the vote.

The reason for this is that in 1989 the opposition was quite divided, with the 2nd largest party being PP with 25.8% of the vote. Meanwhile in 2008 the opposition was also unified with PP getting 39.9% of the vote.

Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,979


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 17, 2019, 08:27:43 pm »

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.

Well, no one really knows, but the more the better. (Try to think of Spain's seat to vote ratio as exponential instead of linear)

Keep in mind that the vote-seats ratio is not only dependant on the party's results, but also in the results of everyone else.

A good example is that PSOE got 175 seats (exactly half) in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote.

Meanwhile in 2008 PSOE got only 169 seats with 43.7% of the vote.

The reason for this is that in 1989 the opposition was quite divided, with the 2nd largest party being PP with 25.8% of the vote. Meanwhile in 2008 the opposition was also unified with PP getting 39.9% of the vote.



Which is one of PSOE's strengths right now - they are polling in the High 20s whereas everyone else is between 10 and low 20s. So there are going to be quite a few PSOE 'bonus' seats thanks to their nationwide appeal and lead on the pack. The previous La Vanguardia poll for example has them getting between 15 and 20 seats above the pure proportional result.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2019, 08:39:39 pm »

The threshold to have a good vote/seat ratio is estimated at 15%, but the increasing fragmentation makes it unclear. Also, the ratio may depend on which provinces a said party is stronger, given that seat allocation by province favours the less populated (the "empty Spain"). That's why some polls predict that PP could win more seats than Cs with a similar vote share. PP performs strongly in rural Spain and among the eldest, while it performs poorly among the youngest voters. Another feature of the system is that nationalist and regionalist parties use to have a better ratio than third parties nationwide, because peripheral parties have their vote concentrated in a few provinces.

2016 General Election (vote share/ % of seats)

PP (33% /39,1%), PSOE (22.6%/24.3%), UP (21.2%/20.3%), Cs (13.1%/9.1%)

ERC (2.6%/2.6%), CDC (2%/2.3%), EAJ-PNV (1.2%/1.4%), EH Bildu (0.8%/0.6%), CC (0.3%/0.3%)

Kiko Llaneras made an estimation for El País on the Vox effect over the rightwing seats, assuming the combined vote of the Triple Alliance is at 49% (percentage may oscillate depending on the mobilization of the left). It seems the rightwing majority is assured with Vox getting more than 11%. I'd take it with a grain of salt, because there are multiple variables. Mobilization is key

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/16/actualidad/1550336107_552865.html?rel=lom
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 18, 2019, 10:55:19 am »
« Edited: February 18, 2019, 11:01:42 am by Velasco »

Cs political bureau agrees unanimously not making deals with Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE after the general elections. By the moment this decision doesn't affect deals at regional and local level. Cs secretary general José Manuel Vilegas said that talking and making agreements with the separatists (the "coup plotters" in the vision of the Spanish Right) is one of the most serious and deplorable actions ever performed by a Spanish government. Cs leader Albert Rivera stated past Friday that Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE must go to the opposition. Rivera seeks the repetition of the coalition agreements in Andalusia, with the difference that he hopes to lead the government himself. Cs would be a "modern" and "liberal" alternative in Rivera's words, while the PP represents a "conservative" one somewhat tarnished by corruption. Rivera has no opinion of Vox, because that party has no seats in the Spanish parliament.

Loyal to his hyperbolic rhetoric style, PP leader Pablo Casado compares the current political situation of Spain with the situation after the death of Franco. Casado assures that separatists are ready to launch a second assault to the Spain's integrity with the PSOE's collusion.

The Vox campaign in Madrid targets low income municipalities with high proportion of immigrant population, which usually lean to the left

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/02/17/madrid/1550425964_576994.html

The GAD3 poll released by La Vanguardia provides a little ray of light. According to it, a majority of Spaniards favours dialogue as the way to solve the conflict in Catalonia. Talks between central and regional governments are supported by 52.3%, while 34.2% supports the implementation of direct rule in Catalonia (article 155). A poll conducted by GAD3 three months ago showed opposite results. The turn in public opinion is attributed either to the dragging effect of the government's discourse or to a reaction against inflated rhetoric and overacting.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190217/46528947189/la-mayoria-de-los-espanoles-elige-el-dialogo-para-resolver-la-crisis-catalana.html

 
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,051
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2019, 01:16:56 pm »



So, there's this poll. The left is getting trounced in Madrid, though that's not really new anyway.

I was meaning to ask, what are the best pollsters in Spain? What pollsters should I turn a blind eye to?
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,873
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2019, 01:51:27 pm »


I was meaning to ask, what are the best pollsters in Spain? What pollsters should I turn a blind eye to?

Best pollsters (or at least the most accurate thus far) seems to have been GAD3, which has also been consistently good.

Worst pollster by far is CIS. It barely counts as a poll at this point. If Sánchez loses the election, then it might become good again as it's owned by the government. Traditionally it wasn't the most accurate pollster but the methodology and information provided was really good.

Of the private pollsters, the worst seems to be Metroscopia
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 20, 2019, 05:22:47 am »
« Edited: February 20, 2019, 05:31:39 am by Velasco »

Vox takes its anti-immigration message to Madrid

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/18/inenglish/1550506982_047374.html

Quote
x, a Spanish far-right party that recently gained parliamentary representation in the southern region of Andalusia, is trying to extend its successful strategy ahead of local, regional and national elections due to be held in the spring.

After securing 12 seats in Andalusia on December 2 on a pro-Spanish unity and anti-immigration message, Vox got an early start on its campaign for regional and municipal elections in Madrid with a Sunday rally in Torrejón de Ardoz.

The choice of venue was not casual: a hotel located a five-minute drive from one of the Madrid region’s most diverse neighborhoods, San José, where halal butcher shops share sidewalk space with Senegalese hairdresser salons and Ukrainian supermarkets (...)

Brussels fears Spain becomes in the new Italy

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/18/inenglish/1550477002_732280.html?rel=mas

Quote
The European Union, just like the markets, is ruling out a financial or budget meltdown as a result of the snap election announced in Spain for April 28. But Brussels is afraid that the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy could be affected by the same kind of political instability seen for years in Italy, which is currently led by a populist and euro-skeptic government.

The risk of seeing Spain follow in Italy’s footsteps is creating apprehension among EU institutions, which view Spain as one of the few member states that supports European integration and remains free of extremist parties (,,,)

Cs decision to rule out deals with socialists has been received with some skepticism, because many people remember Albert Rivera promising that he'd never support Mariano Rajoy before the 2016 elections. There is a tough competition between the three rightwing parties, with Pablo Casado and the PP engaged in an absurd rhetoric radicalism (part ideological conviction, part fear of Vox) and the oranges not wanting to get left behind (some voters switching from PP to Cs might be tempted to vote for Vox). Also, the tactical turn to the right is motivated by the desire of Albert Rivera to become the next PM by leading the rightwing block. Rivera is not particularly good at strategy, on the other hand. Depending on election results, it might be some pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement that provides stability to the Spanish government. However, the differences over the crisis management in Catalonia (talks policy Vs article 155) and the tough rhetoric of Albert Rivera make an agreement very difficult. We'll have to wait after the elections to see what happens.


So, there's this poll. The left is getting trounced in Madrid, though that's not really new anyway.

This is not a proper poll. Rather it's an extrapolation to the province of Madrid of a nationwide poll. No doubt that Madrid is a right leaning province, but I think the PSOE will get better results in the general elections.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,873
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2019, 06:44:56 pm »

Apparently El Periódico de Cataluña published a poll about whether the Catalan issue should be solved with talks or with another round of article 155 (direct rule).

This wouldn't be noteworthy if it wasn't because they took crosstabs for several regions of Spain. The results are here:



Quite surprising to say the least. First of all, I'm surprised talks aren't just winning, but that they are winning handily. Brute force was a lot more popular a couple months ago.

Either way looking at the crosstabs obviously the Basques and Catalans are almost unanimously opposed. Galicia is also quite opposed.

Beyond that there aren't many significant differences elsewhere.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 20, 2019, 09:45:36 pm »
« Edited: February 21, 2019, 12:14:55 pm by Velasco »

Giles Tremlett reviews the Podemos crisis in The Guardian, What went wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/podemos-spanish-politics

Quote
It was only five years ago that Spain’s break-out party Podemos became a dazzling new lodestar for Europe’s lost and troubled left. But with a snap election just weeks away, it now risks a crash as spectacular as its rise. Has the leftwing populist model of ponytailed rebel Pablo Iglesias and his gang of talented young thinkers, so admired by many Jeremy Corbyn backers and others around Europe, proved a failure?

Polling suggests the party is in deep trouble. Podemos once led the polls and very nearly snatched leadership of Spain’s left from prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party at the 2016 elections, but it is now only the voters’ fourth favourite party. The meltdown means it is slated to lose half its deputies, while Sánchez gallops ahead, taking well over twice as many votes as Podemos on 28 April.

The far-right populist party Vox is now also snapping at its heels, adding ideological insult to electoral injury. In April, Vox will target the same working-class city neighbourhoods as Podemos – claiming that immigrants and Catalan separatists, not austerity, are the problem. Mainstream parties will undoubtedly argue that this is merely one populism replacing another. That misses the point (...)

There is the Errejón factor. The differences between him and Pablo Iglesias went beyond alliance policy and strategy. They had a long time friendship which was underminded and broken by politics. Errejón is regarded by many as the most talented of the Podemos founders

Quote
Errejón was also a key theorist in a party that pledged to break moulds and shed the shackles that had kept the reforming left out of power. He was the most forthright proponent of a philosophy of popular “transversal” coalitions that knitted together a wide variety of groups opposed to the status quo in one of Europe’s most corrupt and unequal societies. This allowed Podemos to channel the rage of the spontaneous indignado protests, which had occupied city squares in 2011. It also prevented it repeating the doomed coalitions routinely put together under the dead hand of Spain’s communist party. Everybody was welcome, the message became, under Podemos’s bright, purple-coloured umbrella.

Another interesting angle is the relationship between the Podemos leadership and the mayors of Madrid and Barcelona: Manuela Carmena and Ada Colau

Quote
Both mayors have performed remarkably well as they seek to make cities more liveable, rather than merely richer. Carmena has even pulled off the apparently impossible trick of reducing the debt inherited from big-spending rightwing mayors without instituting austerity. Charges that the new left is radical, dangerous and irresponsible now ring hollow.

Neither mayor allows herself to be bossed by Podemos, a party that is only half-joking when it repeatedly references the power battles waged in Game of Thrones. Colau remains on friendly terms, but the relationship with Carmena has soured as Podemos has shed allies,

There are problems in the relationship between Podemos and the regional allies

Quote
Monica Oltra, the deputy premier of Valencia’s regional government, has already said that her Compromís party, a key local ally, will not repeat an electoral coalition with Podemos in the April general election. En Marea, a similar ally in Galicia, has also walked away. As a result, Podemos’s broad coalition looks increasingly skinny and self-centred.

Tremlett says that Podemos should ask itself why the three most powerful women in the alternative left (Carmena, Colau and Oltra) operate outside the party, as well as mentions the role of speakswoman in Congress Irene Montero (she's a young and talented politician, a former member of the communist youth who hapens to be the Iglesias' couple). He finishes saying the Andalusia results prove that "something went badly wrong". His diagnosis is "internal strife and narrowness of vision"

Pedro Sánchez presented yesterday the PSOE's pre-campaign. The slogan is "The Spain You Want". I just watched the video and it's good, conveys the message of an inclusive Spain where everybody fits in. It's filmed in b/w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3vxiVaW7wk



Apparently El Periódico de Cataluña published a poll about whether the Catalan issue should be solved with talks or with another round of article 155 (direct rule).

This wouldn't be noteworthy if it wasn't because they took crosstabs for several regions of Spain. The results are here:

The GAD3 poll has the same results on the same question (see a previous post) and it's noteworthy. This turn in public opinion provides a ray of light, IMO

Logged
¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,335
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 21, 2019, 12:11:43 pm »

If Podemos is drubbed, will Iglesias try and stay on anyway?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2019, 12:33:42 pm »
« Edited: February 21, 2019, 12:48:41 pm by Velasco »

If Podemos is drubbed, will Iglesias try and stay on anyway?

The problem with Podemos is that style of leadership focused on the cult of the Pablo Iglesias personality. It won't be easy to replace him. I remember some rumours pointing Irene Montero as a possible leader after the next general elections. I think she has a raw talent to develop, but she has some disadvantages as well: too young, couple of Pablo Iglesias... Ideologically she and the Pablo Iglesias inner circle are a bit Leninist for my taste. The communist youth makes its mark.

On a related note, I read today there are problens with the Podemos and IU alliances in some regions. There are regions like Asturias and Murcia where both organizations will run separate lists. Madrid and other regions are in the air.  IU might ally with Anticapitalistas (the far-left wing of Pidemos) in some places ...  
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,475


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 22, 2019, 05:06:17 am »

Apparently El Periódico de Cataluña published a poll about whether the Catalan issue should be solved with talks or with another round of article 155 (direct rule).

This wouldn't be noteworthy if it wasn't because they took crosstabs for several regions of Spain. The results are here:



Quite surprising to say the least. First of all, I'm surprised talks aren't just winning, but that they are winning handily. Brute force was a lot more popular a couple months ago.

Either way looking at the crosstabs obviously the Basques and Catalans are almost unanimously opposed. Galicia is also quite opposed.

Beyond that there aren't many significant differences elsewhere.
I think the comparison of Andalusia and the Castillas is quite interesting, would have expected it to be the other way round based on traditional partisan support - I suppose the fact that it isn't is quite telling.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,366
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: February 23, 2019, 02:49:10 am »
« Edited: February 24, 2019, 12:41:50 am by Velasco »

The leader of the opposition in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas is about to enter national politics. She will run for the province of Barcelona in the next general elections. The decision will be officially announced today in a campaign act taking place in Madrid with Cs leader Albert Rivera. Arrimadas will replace Cs spokesman in Congress and former journalist Juan Carlos Girauta on the top of the Barcelona list. Girauta will top the list for Toledo because he's moving his residence to that province. The Operation Arrimadas has been forged with great secrecy, to the point that high officers like secretary general José Manuel Villegas were completely unaware. The news has created internal shock and raised some opposition in an organization totally controlled by Rivera. Arrimadas is very popular for her role in Catalonia and is the only person in the party who could overshadow the supreme leader. Tomorrow she will travel to Belgium in order to perform an act in front of the Puigdemont's residence in Waterloo and remember the ousted premier that the Catalan republic does not exist. Arrimadas could be replaced by regional deputy Lorena Roldán as the Cs spokeswoman in Catalonia. The decision is interpreted as a firm intent to fight with all weapons against PP for the leadership of the Spanish Right.

According to El País, the decision made by the Cs leadership to veto government deals with the PSOE is motivated by public opinion surveys. Demoscopic information shows that there are many rightwing undecided voters that could switch to PP, Cs or Vox. Most of these voters repudiates Pedro Sánchez, as well there is a dangerous vote transfer from Cs to Vox. People like economist Luis Garicano defended not ruling out deals with PSOE, but demoscopic evidence was apparently very strong and finally the decision was approved unanimously.

Disturbing news from Andalusia: Vox asks for the names of gender violence workers, claiming that many of them are not qualified and their decisions are ideologically motivated

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/22/inenglish/1550852190_868783.html

Quote
Vox, a Spanish far-right party that gained parliamentary representation at regional elections in Andalusia last December, wants to know the names of government workers who deal with gender violence.

Francisco Serrano, a Vox deputy and the party leader in the southern region, has filed a parliamentary petition asking the Andalusian government for the identities of all the workers at its Gender Violence Integral Assessment Units.

These units comprise psychosocial teams from family courts and other experts specializing in minors, and their job is to evaluate the risk factor for women who suffer from gender violence.

Serrano also wants to see the registration numbers showing that these experts are members of the relevant professional associations. The request encompasses “all the psychologists, social workers and forensic doctors” who have served with these units between 2012 and 2019 (...)

There is some purge flavour floating in the air...

I think the comparison of Andalusia and the Castillas is quite interesting, would have expected it to be the other way round based on traditional partisan support - I suppose the fact that it isn't is quite telling.

The fact that a most people in Andalusia and the Castillas supports the implementation of direct rule is telling, but not very surprising. As for the comparison between these regions, maybe the sample size is not large enough to establish meaningful conclusions. The CIS surveys might be more helpful in that regard, because they have larger samples and make questions on territorial issues. Anyway the opposition of Andalusians to the separatist drive in Catalonia and the divisive effect of that drive within the Spanish Left influenced the last regional elections. Events in Catalonia have always a deep impact in Andalusia for many and varied reasons. Catalonia is sometimes called the "9th province" of Andalusia because there are more than 1 million of people with Andalusian ancestry living there. It's worth noting that the stance of the PSOE branches in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla La Mancha is tougher than the stance of the national PSOE. Their 'barons' or regional leaders (Susana Díaz, Guillermo Fernández Vara and Emiliano García-Page) are not the best friends of Pedro Sánchez. Recently the Extremadura regional assembly made a proclamation supporting of the implementation of article 155 in Catalonia with the votes of PSOE, PP and Cs (Podemos opposed)
Logged
Michael19754
Rookie
*
Posts: 26
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -7.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2019, 10:25:33 am »

New poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo:
PSOE: 27.3% (110-114)
PP: 19.1% (71-75)
C's: 16% (54-58)
UP: 14.4% (37-39)
VOX: 13.3% (44-46)
Left Block: 41.7% Right Block: 48.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 173-179 seats/PSOE+C's: 164-172 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 169-179 seats

New poll by Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia:
PSOE: 28.2% (116)
PP: 19.3% (76)
VOX: 14.2% (51)
UP: 14.2% (39)
C's: 13.5% (40)
Left Block: 42.4% Right Block: 47%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 183 seats/PSOE+C's: 156 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 167 seats

The PSOE strategy of conquering the center seems to be working very well. Centrist voters are fleeing from C's due to the party's cuddling with the far-right and its veto on a PSOE-C's coalition. The only problem for them is that their preferred option (PSOE-C's) is very far away from the 176 seats necessary for a majority, they'd need to win the separatists' support once again, which would much more difficult this time around.


Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC