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August 18, 2019, 02:02:28 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Velasco
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« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2019, 11:20:01 am »


The PSOE strategy of conquering the center seems to be working very well. Centrist voters are fleeing from C's due to the party's cuddling with the far-right and its veto on a PSOE-C's coalition. The only problem for them is that their preferred option (PSOE-C's) is very far away from the 176 seats necessary for a majority, they'd need to win the separatists' support once again, which would much more difficult this time around.

The Invymark poll has better numbers for the right: PSOE 24.3%, PP 21%, Cs 20.2%, UP 13.9%, VOX 11.3%

I would like to think that PSOE is recovering ground in the centre at the expense of Cs, but it seems that socialists make gains at the expense of Podemos. Sigma Dos and Sondaxe are showing that VOX is biting PP and Cs alike. The turn to the right of PP and Cs seems to be motivated by the rise of the far right at their expense.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2019, 11:40:08 am »
« Edited: February 24, 2019, 11:45:57 am by Michael19754 »

The Invymark poll has better numbers for the right: PSOE 24.3%, PP 21%, Cs 20.2%, UP 13.9%, VOX 11.3%
Invymark has been overestimating the right for quite some time now. It is published by the progressive La Sexta, so they're probably trying to mobilize the left.
If you look at the combined left total in Sigma Dos , you can see that the gap with the right is becoming smaller. And take a look at the variations with the previous Sigma Dos poll:
PSOE: 27,3% +4,7 (110-114) +18
PP: 19,1% -0,1 (71-75) +1
Cs: 16,0% -2,8 (54-58) -12
UP: 14,4% -1,4 (37-39) -8
VOX: 13,3% +0,4 (44-46) +1
Clearly PSOE is taking away some vote from C's too, not from UP alone.
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tack50
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« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2019, 12:39:35 pm »

Honestly, I don't consider PSOE-UP-Nationalists (other than PNV) to be a viable coalition. If ERC and PDECat refused to even pass Sánchez's budget, why would they vote for him as PM?
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Mike88
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« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2019, 12:49:12 pm »

The PP/C's seem, like Michael, to be losing moderate/centrist voters to PSOE. Of course, PSOE is benefiting with the implosion of Podemos, while the rightwing turn of PP and C's isn't also benefiting them because, i say, people prefer the original, Vox, than those who try to copy it, and might i say, very badly.

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2019, 01:19:04 pm »

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE.
Honestly, I have my doubts about whether the PP would be doing better now with Soraya. On one hand, yes, a lot of moderate voters that are going to the socialists now would be supporting the PP. But on the other hand, one of Vox's main argument is that the PP is too soft and it resonates even with the very conservative Casado at the helm. With Soraya leading the party Vox would have more support right now.

Overall I think both effects would roughly cancel each other; but there are also many unknowns about what the party would have done under Soraya. For example, would it have reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia?
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Velasco
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« Reply #55 on: February 24, 2019, 10:01:48 pm »
« Edited: February 24, 2019, 10:19:07 pm by Velasco »


I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.

I think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría would have been a better leader for the PP, obviously. Even though I would never vote for parties like PP pr Cs for ideological and sentimental reasons, I realize that healthy democracies need parties that represent people with liberal and conservative views. I believe that it's in everybody's interest that the main parties have a decent leadership. Santamaría is more skillful than Casado and has a lot of experience in government. She knows how the machinery of the state works, as well as she has a pragmatic approach to politics. Casado is a conservative hack unexperienced and a with dubious academic credentials, the puppy of Esperanza Aguirre and José ;María Aznar. My impression is that Casado could be an incompetent and potentially dangerous PM. Certainly Soraya would have been less prone to rhetorical excess and the PP would have been more centered and moderate under her leadership. However, I'm afraid the Vox surge is an inevitability. It's caused by indignation and anger, triggered by the Catalan crisis (possibly thre are more underlying causes). Vox is the party that represents the rightwing indignados. Despite everything, I think it's better that mainstream liberal and conervative parties preserve their values and personality instead of buying the far right agenda, mimicking its rhetorical excess and ideological extremism. It'd be a way to contain the phenomenon within a relative marginality in the short term... although I think the strategy of the cordon sanitaire doesn't work in the long term, because it doesn't target the root causes. Indeed, I think voters would prefer the original to the copy...
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tack50
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« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2019, 10:14:16 am »

The PP/C's seem, like Michael, to be losing moderate/centrist voters to PSOE. Of course, PSOE is benefiting with the implosion of Podemos, while the rightwing turn of PP and C's isn't also benefiting them because, i say, people prefer the original, Vox, than those who try to copy it, and might i say, very badly.

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.

It's worth noting that the only poll that was done with both candidates found Soraya performing worse than Casado. Granted, that was well before the Vox surge, from a fairly unknown pollster (Top Position) and hypothetical polling in general is pretty bad.





Still it's the only concrete data point we have.

I personally think Soraya would make for an infinitely better PM than Casado. She might also be more effective at getting moderate Cs and maybe PSOE voters (I could even see her running to the left of Cs on many issues!)

However, I also think she would lose even more to Vox. My hypothetical is that if Soraya was PP leader, polling would probably be closer to something like:

PSOE: 26%
PP: 19%
Vox: 19%
UP: 14%
Cs: 11%

Others 11%

So ironically not much change in PP, but Cs collapsing. Though I could also see PP not being effective at getting Cs voters so it would be Cs doing well and PP going the way of the dodo.
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Velasco
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« Reply #57 on: February 27, 2019, 03:01:08 am »

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders continues. By the moment the prosecution is having a hard time proving that separatists resorted to violence, the essential requirement of the charge of rebellion (defendants are also charged with sedition, misuse of public funds and disobedience). We are only at the early stages, though

Jordi Cuixart: "The referendum was the biggest exercise in civil disobedience in Europe"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/26/inenglish/1551194163_039224.html

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Important testimonies are scheduled in the upcoming days, including: Mariano Rajoy (former Spanish PM), Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (former Deputy PM), Artur Mas (former Catalan premier) and Íñigo Urkullu (Basque premier)

The prosecutor0s office in Madrid will request three years and three months of prison for Cristina Cifuentes, the former premier who is accused of forging her Master's degree certificate.

Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell will be the top candidate of the PSOE in the upcoming EP elections.

Cs hired a former speaker of the Castilla y León regional assembly creating some controversy. Silvia Clemente resigned her position and the PP memberhip a few days ago, in order to run in the Cs primary election to nominate the party's candidate. Clemente has been in politics more than 20 years, holding several regional portfolios (cultire, environment and agriculture). She alleged that PP premier Alfonso Pérez Mañueco lacks ambition and a project for the region, but she was about to lose her position in the PP electoral list. There are some doubts on her honesty because Clemente's husband spent 1 million euros of unknown origin in a refurbishment, as well the same enterprise in charge of the works at her hisband's house was given contracts by the regional Department of Agriculture during Clemente's tenure. She will be opposed in the primaries by a Cs regional deputy called Francsco Igea. Clemente will run as an independent because the Cs leadership gave her a special permission and she is backed by Secretary general José Manuel Villegas. The move was an "unpleasant surprise" for the PP. In case Silvia Clemente gets the nomination, post-eletion agreements with the incumbent premier seem difficult. The PSOE in Castilla y León is happy with this conflict in the right.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #58 on: February 28, 2019, 10:34:51 am »

The CIS has published its monthly poll and as always, the numbers are just ridiculous:
PSOE: 33.3% (up 3.4%)
PP: 16.7% (up 1.8%)
C's: 15.3% (down 2.4%)
UP: 14.5% (down 0.9%)
VOX: 5.9% (down 0.6%)
ERC: 3.3% (down 1.4%)
Left Block: 47.8% Right Block: 37.9%

Also mind that the survey was made during the relator mess, making it even less believable. If during those days the PSOE was on 33%, how much is Tezanos giving his party next time? 40%? 50%? Other notable aspects of the "poll" are VOX being laughably underestimated and ERC losing nearly a third of its voters for no apparent reason.
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Velasco
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« Reply #59 on: March 01, 2019, 04:35:26 am »

Basque premier mediated between Mariano Rajoy and Carles Puigdemont ahead of the independence declaration by the Catalan parliament

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/28/inenglish/1551369776_890031.html

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Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu testifying as a witness at the Supreme Court.
Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu testifying as a witness at the Supreme C
The premier of Spain’s Basque Country on Thursday confirmed that he did “mediation” work between the central and Catalan governments in a bid to stop things from ending up the way they eventually did: with a unilateral independence declaration and the application of emergency measures, including the sacking of the Catalan government by Madrid and a seven-month freeze on regional self-rule (...)

This testimony is very interesting and quite telling as well. It was not a secret that Urkullu and others mediated between the Spanish and the Catalan governments. Recently the Spanish Right created a political storm over the proposal (poorly explained by Deputy PM Carmen Calvo) to sppoint a "rapporteur", in order to coordonate the meetings of a future Catalan party talks. Casado and Rivera cried "high treason" and went to Colón Square with Abascal, making the Vox's campaign.

The CIS has published its monthly poll and as always, the numbers are just ridiculous:

Everything you need to know about the CIS poll is in El Mundo Today

https://www.elmundotoday.com/2019/02/la-senora-del-psoe-que-responde-a-las-encuestas-del-cis-vuelve-a-pronosticar-la-victoria-de-pedro-sanchez/?fbclid=IwAR39WQUM88T-W_v2hLQDx5szA5JspmBc6JIag8Ik47PBdToMbLMJOIV8REs

I predict that Pedro Sánchez is going to win as that woman did, or at least the PSOE will come first. The question is the margin and its influence in the final composition of the parliament. I would take a beer with the 'traitor' Pedro Sánchez too...
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: March 01, 2019, 08:35:46 am »

It seems the key to this election is the vote share of UP and VOX.  There seems to be an inflection point around 13%-14% vote share (which could shift because it depends on the vote share of other parties) where above this threshold there will be a surge of seats and below it the seat haul seems low. So the question becomes is the VOX vote share like 10%-11% or 13%-14%.  Just like the question is also will UF vote share be 11%-12% or 14%-15%.  The polls seems to indicate that for both parties both levels of support are possible.  Weather one or both or none of these 2 parties gets around that inflection point seems critical to the nature of government formation post election.
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Velasco
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« Reply #61 on: March 04, 2019, 03:46:17 am »

Woman's Day demonstrations will take place in four days. According to a 40dB poll released yesterday by El País 64.5% of women under 25 declare themselves feminist, almost twice than 5 years ago. Support for feminism decreases among women aged between 35 and 54 years and increases again among those aged above 55. Men are less concerned: 45.9% under 25 declare themselves feminist and the percentage decreases with older age.


Nearly a half of women and a third of men think that the goal of feminism is the real equality between genders. PSOE and Podemos voters agree at a higher rate; in contrast 70% of Vox voters rejects that feminism pursues equality.

Podemos and PSOE are rated as the most feminist parties with a great difference over Cs, PP and Vox:


The most important goals of the feminist movement are, in decreasing order: eliminate the glass ceiling, fight gender based violence, harassment and sexual assaults, gender stereotypes, domestic work equally, abortion, gender quotas, inclusive language.

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2019/03/03/actualidad/1551638433_568255.html

A Spanish ultraconservative organization has launched a campaign against "feminazis"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/01/inenglish/1551428604_932895.html

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Spanish ultraconservative Catholic organization Hazte Oír (Make Yourself Heard) has launched a bus campaign against “feminazis” and what it considers “radical feminism.

he campaign calls on Spain’s conservative political leaders – Pablo Casado from the Popular Party (PP), Albert Rivera from Ciudadanos (Citizens) and Santiago Abascal from the far-right party Vox  – to repeal the 2004 gender violence law and legal protections granted by Spanish regions to the LGBTQI community.

The bus will travel through several Spanish cities until International Women’s Day on March 8, when a women’s strike and demonstration have been planned.

“It’s not gender violence, it’s domestic violence” is the main message plastered on the bus. “Gender laws discriminate against men. Casado, Rivera, Abascal: Repeal the gender laws,” is written below.

The bus also features an image of Adolf Hitler wearing makeup and the symbol of feminism on his military cap, above the hashtag “#StopFeminazis,” (...)

On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.

As you see, feminism is a campaign issue.

The last thing appearing in the Wikipedia's summary of polls is a Key Data analysis ("poll of polls") released by Público that estimates the following results:

PSOE 25.1%, PP 21.5%, Cs 18%, UP 14.5%, Vox 10.9%, ERC 3.1%, PDeCAT 1.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.3%

Seats estimated:


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bigic
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« Reply #62 on: March 04, 2019, 05:24:17 am »


On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.


The same argument can be made against wage labour, which is precisely why I disagree with such arguments against prostitution and surrogacy - I consider them morally equivalent to wage labour, and the reactionary right arguments against prostitution and surrogacy are also based on the premise that they are not morally equivalent with wage labour.
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tack50
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« Reply #63 on: March 04, 2019, 06:46:02 am »

Electomania.es apparently will be publishing vote estimations all weekdays for all elections that will happen. (so mondays for the general election, tuesdays for the EU elections, etc)

These are not proper polls, but estimations based off an online panel. So you shoud treat them with caution.

http://electomania.es/ep4m/#idc-cover

Also, apparently premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) of the Valencian Community will call a snap regional election for the day of the general election (28th of April), probably trying to capitalize on the PSOE surge nationally.

https://www.lasprovincias.es/politica/puig-convoca-consell-adelanto-electoral-comunitat-valenciana-20190304090807-nt.html

Ironically, Puig was originally against a "super sunday" yet he will now call for one lol

If confirmed, there would be several firsts:

-First regional election to happen the same day as a general election since Andalucia 2008

-First snap regional election in a "non historic" autonomous community (ie not Andalucia/Catalonia/Basque Country/Galicia) since Asturias 2012

-First snap regional election that won't get a regular election when the original election term is over (wouldn't even make sense in this case)

Over the last 15 years, several autonomous communities passed new autonomy statutes giving themselves more powers, among those the power to call snap regional elections and not be confined to holding them alongside the local elections. However, the Valencian Community will be the first to exercise this power.

I'm currently rating the Valencian regional elections as lean PP. Puig is an underdog, but he is not overly disadvantaged.
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Velasco
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« Reply #64 on: March 04, 2019, 06:59:04 am »


On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.


The same argument can be made against wage labour, which is precisely why I disagree with such arguments against prostitution and surrogacy - I consider them morally equivalent to wage labour, and the reactionary right arguments against prostitution and surrogacy are also based on the premise that they are not morally equivalent with wage labour.

My opinion is that prostitution and surrogacy imply the commodification of the women's body, not to mention the sordid elements surrounding prostitution and sexual exploitation. Wage labour implies that you sell your workforce to the employer, not necessarily your body in a sexually exploitative way. Maybe there's a difference after all, but possibly all these things are to be discused in other boards... As for surrogacy, I  just heard to Inés Arrimadas saying that Cs only supports it when surrogacy is "altruist", not the "womb renting". I find difficult to imagine a woman of middle or high socioeconomic status breeding a child for other woman only for altruist reasons. Apparently the Cs folks think otherwise
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« Reply #65 on: March 04, 2019, 08:16:15 am »

Electomania.es apparently will be publishing vote estimations all weekdays for all elections that will happen. (so mondays for the general election, tuesdays for the EU elections, etc)

These are not proper polls, but estimations based off an online panel. So you shoud treat them with caution.

http://electomania.es/ep4m/#idc-cover

Also, apparently premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) of the Valencian Community will call a snap regional election for the day of the general election (28th of April), probably trying to capitalize on the PSOE surge nationally.

https://www.lasprovincias.es/politica/puig-convoca-consell-adelanto-electoral-comunitat-valenciana-20190304090807-nt.html

Ironically, Puig was originally against a "super sunday" yet he will now call for one lol

If confirmed, there would be several firsts:

-First regional election to happen the same day as a general election since Andalucia 2008

-First snap regional election in a "non historic" autonomous community (ie not Andalucia/Catalonia/Basque Country/Galicia) since Asturias 2012

-First snap regional election that won't get a regular election when the original election term is over (wouldn't even make sense in this case)

Over the last 15 years, several autonomous communities passed new autonomy statutes giving themselves more powers, among those the power to call snap regional elections and not be confined to holding them alongside the local elections. However, the Valencian Community will be the first to exercise this power.

I'm currently rating the Valencian regional elections as lean PP. Puig is an underdog, but he is not overly disadvantaged.

I find this electopanel super interesting. I'll be constantly checking it.
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Velasco
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« Reply #66 on: March 04, 2019, 01:02:31 pm »

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections. This decision is aimed to increase turnout, taking afvantage of the Pedro Sánchez's traction and give nationwide visibility to the Valencia region. PSOE governs in coalition with leftwing regionalist Compromis and the Podemos confidence and supply. Compromis was opposed to this date, preferring May 26 alongside local elections. Compromis is led by deputy premier Mónica Oltra; another leading figure of the regionalists is the mayor of the capital city of Valencia Joan Ribó.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #67 on: March 05, 2019, 07:04:09 am »

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections.
Very, very risky. A regional election on April 28 means a worse result for Compromis, securing the PSPV's status as the main left-wing party, but it also means that the campaign will probably be nationalized, helping the right-wing parties. Could be the political suicide of the year.
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Velasco
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« Reply #68 on: March 05, 2019, 01:06:55 pm »

Time to repost the 2015 map


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Valencian_regional_election
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« Reply #69 on: March 05, 2019, 02:16:36 pm »

The moves in Valencia are a classic case of poltiicians playing for the short term. Back when PSOE was down to the triumvirate, they didn't want to taint the locals. Now that they are about equal and PSOE is rising, local leaders want to hop on that train. Of course things can change in a month, so its a a rather short sighted move.
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Velasco
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« Reply #70 on: March 06, 2019, 04:54:07 am »

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections.
Very, very risky. A regional election on April 28 means a worse result for Compromis, securing the PSPV's status as the main left-wing party, but it also means that the campaign will probably be nationalized, helping the right-wing parties. Could be the political suicide of the year.

The snap election in Andalusia was already a political suicide. Susana Diaz miscalculated her forces, expecting to win easily without the help of her enemy Pedro Sánchez and the national PSOE. The plan of Susana Diaz was to repeat her deal with Ciudadanos and wait the right moment to adjust accounts with Pedro Sánchez, once the fragile coalition with Podemos and the peripheral nationalists was beginning to break down. Then she could take revenge. The wear of the Andalusian socialists after 37 years in government and the corruption scandals (ERE case and others), as well as the repercusions of the Catalan conundrum, created the conditions for disaster. Four previous regional elections were called in Andalusia in coincidence with the Spanish general elections. In all cases the PSOE performed well.

Ximo Puig appears to be a pragmatist. He supported Susana Diaz in the leadership contest, but now he has an acceptable relationship with Pedro Sánchez (the PM's right hand José Luis Abalos is Valencian). Puig is seeking to  repeat a left-wing majority, because a deal with Cs is very unlikely in Valencia. Cs regional candidate Toni Cantó says that Puig is a  Trojan Horse of the Catalans. Puig is fron Morella, a small town of the Castellón province located near to the border with Aragon and Catalonia, in the NW corner of the region (see the deep red in the map). He is more moderate than Susana Diaz and other socialist 'barons' in what concerns the management of the Catalan crisis. His relationship with Compromis has been reasonably good, although the move to call a snap election is opposed by Mónica Oltra (however she stated the coalition will be repeated, although she hopes to win and be the next premier). Obviously Puig is seeking to reinforce the PSPV-PSOE at the expense of Compromis. The move is a relief for Unidos Podemos as well, because the cpincidence with general elections might help to reduce losses. Puig is taking a risk, but maybe this tactical move will work (or maybe not).
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« Reply #71 on: March 08, 2019, 03:56:24 am »

PP will not attend the Women's Day march today while Pablo Casado attacks "left-wing feminists"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/07/inenglish/1551946883_713484.html

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Spain’s Popular Party (PP) has announced it will not be attending the demonstration in Madrid for International Women’s Day on Friday, March 8. In a press release, the opposition conservative group defended its decision on the grounds that the declaration that will be read out at the march is “politicized” and “partisan.”

“Far-left parties want to monopolize this demonstration, looking to create division and conflict between men and women, and even between women of different ideologies,” the party stated.

However, PP leader Pablo Casado told members that they could still join the women’s general strike, which has also been called for Friday, or attend the demonstration if they wanted to, according to sources from the PP (...)

Female leaders within the PP, including the vice secretaries of communication Marta González, of social policy Cuca Gamarra and of studies and programs Andrea Levy, had planned to attend the Friday protest but changed their mind when they saw the declaration that would be read at the march, said PP sources.

In one paragraph, the text says: “This year, we join the global cry of women in Brazil, in the United States, in Italy, in India and in other parts of the world against the patriarchal reactions to women’s progress towards achieving our rights, and against the right and far right that have placed women and migrants as the top priority of their ultraliberal, racist and patriarchal offensive.” (...)

While I think it's undeniable the radical and the far right are misogynist and it's  necessary to denounce leaders like Trump or Bolsonaro (among others) in a Women's Day march, possibly it would have been better to negotiate the declaration's wording. Despite Casado and some radicals in the PP, there some are right-wing women believing in gender equality (feminism is not about sex war) that should be in the march. However and in my view, the double standard of PP and Cs with regards to Vox detracts legitimacy to their complaints.

Vox member arrested on alleged sexual abuse of disabled man.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/06/inenglish/1551879031_488424.html

Quote
Spanish political party Vox is trying to distance itself from José Antonio Ortiz Cambray, who until now had been the emerging far-right group’s visible face in the Catalan city of Lleida, but on Tuesday was arrested on accusations of sexually abusing at least one person with a severe disability, according to police sources consulted by EL PAÍS.

In an official statement released by Vox, which garnered a surprise result in the Andalusian regional elections late last year, the party claimed that the detained man “does not occupy any role of responsibility in Vox and is just a grassroots member.” The messages posted by the party on Twitter and Instagram in which he was presented as its president in Lleida have been deleted (...)

In other news, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias will return to a more active role on March 23, after his paternity leave. This image was briefly posted in the party's Twitter account and raised criticism due to its "messianic" message. It says:

"VUELVE" ("HE COMES BACK"). "Pablo Iglesias meets again with the people".

Maybe this is not the best way to refute the personality cult allegations...

 

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tack50
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« Reply #72 on: March 08, 2019, 08:49:54 am »
« Edited: March 08, 2019, 08:56:13 am by tack50 »

Ok, so today was Womens' day. Like last year, there was a strike programmed, which seems to be completely nonexistent, although I have to say it was marginally more successful than last year.

I do expect the protests this to be huge though, certainly larger than last year.

The main difference is obviously the fact that Vox is a lot larger than last year, wiht their controversial anti-feminist platform, as well as the PP turn to the right.

Today El Mundo published a poll about this issue. Here are its results:

Do you think it's reasonable that the anti gender violence law has stronger punishments for men than for women because of their physical superiority?

(Yes-No)

Men: 35-55
Women: 34-50
Overall: 34-53

Do you think your significant other is sexist? (machista)

(Yes-no)

Men: 2-87
Women: 12-77
Overall: 7-82

Do you consider yourself a feminist?
(Yes-no)

Men: 37-55
Women: 49-47
Overall: 43-51

I personally know mistreated women
(Yes-no)

Men: 40-59
Women: 48-52
Overall: 44-55

Do you consider Spanish politics to be sexist?

Men: 55-40
Women: 71-22
Overall: 64-31

Full poll, with party and age crosstabs: https://www.elmundo.es/papel/historias/2019/03/08/5c81477efdddffe7208b463a.html
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tack50
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« Reply #73 on: March 08, 2019, 10:23:23 am »

Actually, forget what I said earlier, the strike was actually a (partial) success this year.

Electric consumption is down 2% right now. That is indeed low, but putting it in comparison to other strikes puts them into context:

-The 2012 general strike saw roughly a 14% decrease.

-The 2017 Catalan strike saw roughly a 3% decrease

-The 2018 women's strike saw no decrease at this time, peaking at a 2% decrease around 8:30 (the time of the protests)

Assuming the energy consumption data follows a 2018-like pattern, that means the strike will see a 5% decrease or so at its peak, and a 2% decrease over the whole day.

Those are numbers comparable to the Catalan strike, albeit spread out across the whole country, and with less people to strike (7.5 million Catalans vs 23 million women, and that doesn't count the handful of men who follow the strike as well)

Still, certainly a lot bigger than last year.
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Velasco
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« Reply #74 on: March 08, 2019, 12:09:25 pm »

Actually, forget what I said earlier, the strike was actually a (partial) success this year.

Electric consumption is down 2% right now. That is indeed low, but putting it in comparison to other strikes puts them into context:

-The 2012 general strike saw roughly a 14% decrease.

-The 2017 Catalan strike saw roughly a 3% decrease

-The 2018 women's strike saw no decrease at this time, peaking at a 2% decrease around 8:30 (the time of the protests)

Assuming the energy consumption data follows a 2018-like pattern, that means the strike will see a 5% decrease or so at its peak, and a 2% decrease over the whole day.

Those are numbers comparable to the Catalan strike, albeit spread out across the whole country, and with less people to strike (7.5 million Catalans vs 23 million women, and that doesn't count the handful of men who follow the strike as well)

Still, certainly a lot bigger than last year.

It's not posible to compare the women's strike with a general strike for various reasons. To begin eith this one is for women: men are asked to support it by replacing women in all the tasks usually performed by the latter, including non-paid activities traditionally feminine such as homework and caring. Another aspect tp take into account is that unions are not calling the strike, just giving legal coverage. Mainstream unions (UGT and CCOO) are supporting 2h strikes by shift work, while other unions are supporting 24h strikes. Women can choose one option or another. Comparisons in electric consumption decrease with the 2012 general strike or the 2017 strike in Catalonia are not appropiate.
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