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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 32839 times)
crals
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« Reply #100 on: March 25, 2019, 11:02:37 am »

Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?
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Velasco
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« Reply #101 on: March 25, 2019, 12:03:24 pm »
« Edited: March 25, 2019, 01:33:33 pm by Velasco »

Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?

I wouldn't trust the graphs illustrating opinion polls very much. The last one is not good...

CC is a regionalist party of the Canary Islands. Ideologically the Canary Coalition is on the centre-right, although above all things it's a regional interests party. CC has governed the Canary Islands since 1991: most of the times in coalition with the PP, but occasionally in coalition with the PSOE or forming minority governments. CC made a coalition agreement with the PSOE after the 2015 regional elections, but currently governs in minority with the confidence and supply of the PP and the ASG (PSOE split in La Gomera island). In Madrid CC votes occasionally with PP and PSOE, usually depending on regional interests. Currently the relationship between PSOE and CC (central and regional governments) is not good. The CC deputy Ana Oramas abstained in the no confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy, but initially it was going to vote alongside PP and Cs. Oramas is regarded a good parliamentarian, but her party's support has dropped over the years. CC won 4 seats Congress at its peak, but currently it holds a single member for Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
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tack50
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« Reply #102 on: March 25, 2019, 05:12:54 pm »

Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?

Could? Absolutely, but it's not the most likely thing in the world.

Relations between CC and PSOE are quite bad since CC kicked out PSOE of the regional government in 2016 (since then CC has led a weak minority government in the islands). CC also dislikes UP a lot. However, CC could support a PSOE government, especially a PSOE-Cs one, but not a PSOE-UP one.

On the other hand, I don't think CC would prop up a PP-Cs-Vox government either.

CC is nominally centrist, but clearly much closer to the right than the left. Still their placement is incorrect on the graph. If we were doing a graph based on ideology, my proposal would be:

Bildu-ERC-UP-PSOE-PDECat-PNV-CC-Cs-Navarra Suma-PP-Vox
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tack50
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« Reply #103 on: March 27, 2019, 10:56:55 am »

Today the preliminary lists for the General election got published. Some of these will drop out by the 2nd of April when election authorities determine whether the required paperwork is in order or not.

I won't cover all 52 provinces, but here is the full list as published by the election authorities:

https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2019/03/27/pdfs/BOE-A-2019-4492.pdf

For my province of Las Palmas (which is also Velasco's province I think?) the lists we have are (as per usual, lists with a chance at getting seats nationally or just getting an ok result are coloured while minor lists are in black):

Canarian Coalition-Canarian Nationalist Party (CC-PNC)
Citizens-Party of the citizenry (Cs)
New Canaries (NCa)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
Canaries Now-Nationalist Alternative and Popular Unity (AHORA CANARIAS)
Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPE)
Animalist Party against the Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)
For a Fairer World (PUM+J)
United We Can (Podemos-IU-Equo)
People's Party (PP)
Humanist Party (PH)
Zero Cuts-Green Group (Recortes Cero-GV)
Vox (Vox)

So 13 lists in total, albeit only 5 for fringe parties and of those 5, 3 are the kind of party that has a small, but constant niche (Canarian Secessionists, Tankie Communists and the Zero Cuts people) That seems kind of low, with only 2 truly fringe parties (PH and PUM+J). Kind of happy that my signature for the Humanist party didn't go unnoticed though Tongue
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Velasco
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« Reply #104 on: March 27, 2019, 01:12:06 pm »

1 month an 1 day for the election and Albert Rivera is proposing a coalition agreement to Pablo Casado, overlooking both parties would need the Vox support. This offer sounds like Rivera is admitting that Cs is going to lose the battle for the hegemony of the Spanish Right. Casado replied that it sounds like a good idea if the Right has the numbers, but maybe it's too late to ensure a rightwing majority in Senate (Cs rejected a PP offer on a joint list). Albert Rivera is nervous because of the bad polling. José Antonio Zarzalejos, who is a former editor of the ABC newspaper and one of the smartest conservative analysts in Spain, warns that Vox is destroying the democratic Right (conservative PP and liberal Cs). In a recent interview to El País in Rome Steve Bannon says that PP and Cs are already speaking the Vox language: this is what the apostle of national-populism calls "take a product to market".

IU membership in Madrid voted against a coalition with Podemos for regional elections, against the wishes of national leader Alberto Garzón. IU Madrid will run with Anticapitalistas (far-left faction of Podemos) in a list called Madrid En Pie, so the alternative left will be splitted in three (Podemos, Más Madrid and the new list). Possibly this ensures a rightwing majority in the regional assembly. "Narcissism of the Small Differences". Headache. 

For my province of Las Palmas (which is also Velasco's province I think?) the lists we have are (as per usual, lists with a chance at getting seats nationally or just getting an ok result are coloured while minor lists are in black):

Canarian Coalition-Canarian Nationalist Party (CC-PNC)
Citizens-Party of the citizenry (Cs)
New Canaries (NCa)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
Canaries Now-Nationalist Alternative and Popular Unity (AHORA CANARIAS)
Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPE)
Animalist Party against the Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)
For a Fairer World (PUM+J)
United We Can (Podemos-IU-Equo)
People's Party (PP)
Humanist Party (PH)
Zero Cuts-Green Group (Recortes Cero-GV)
Vox (Vox)

Yes, I'm resident Las Palmas province. The PCPE folks are the greatest, IMO: they never fail.

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Velasco
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« Reply #105 on: March 28, 2019, 12:22:20 pm »
« Edited: March 29, 2019, 12:28:18 am by Velasco »

José Manuel Villarejo is a retired police superintendent imprisoned since November 2017, charged as the alleged leader of a police mafia. Mr Villarejo admitted today before the National High Court that he had access to the contents of a cellular phone belonging to an aide of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias. According to the defence lawyer, the corrupt policeman denied any involvement in the theft of said phone that contained personal and political information of Pablo Iglesias. Mr Villarejo tried to Justify having information concerning Pablo Iglesias (it was found in a pen drive when Villarejo was arrested) alleging there was an ongoing police investigation.

By 2016 and shortly after the Podemos irruption in Congress with 69 seats, that is to say in the heyday of the Pablo Iglesias party, the online newspaper OK Diario released a fake news on an alleged police report that said the Iran government financed Pablo Iglesias and people close to him. This writing was called the PISA report (PISA means Pablo Iglesias Limited Company) and its authorship is attributed to a so-called patriotic brigade within the police, during the term of Rajoy's Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, whose alleged leader was Mr Villarejo. Said reports were dismissed by a judge in June 2016, ruling they lacked evidence. The final goal of these reports was apparently to bring Podemos down and prevent a negotiation between the Pablo Iglesias party and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez.

Yesterday Pablo Iglesias testified before the Court as injured party. He could not reveal details due to sub iudice rule, but stated his commitment to the truth, justice, institutions, dirt cleansing, etcetera
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tack50
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« Reply #106 on: March 28, 2019, 12:40:10 pm »

José Manuel Villarejo is a retired police superintendent imprisoned since November 2017, charged as the alleged leader of a police mafia. Mr Villarejo admitted today before the National High Court that he had access to the contents of a cellular phone belonging to an aide of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias. According to the defence lawyer, the corrupt policeman denied any involvement in the theft of said cellar phone that contained personal and political information of Pablo Iglesias. Mr Villarejo tried to Justify having information concerning Pablo Iglesias (it was found in a pen drive when he was arrested) alleging there was an ongoing police investigation.

By 2016 and shortly after the Podemos irruption in Congress with 69 seats, that is to say in the heyday of the Pablo Iglesias party, the online newspaper OK Diario released a fake news on an alleged police report that said the Iran government financed Pablo Iglesias and people close to him. This writing was called the PISA report (PISA means Pablo Iglesias Limited Company) and its authorship is attributed to a so-called patriotic brigade within the police during the term of Rajoy's Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz whose alleged leader was Mr Villarejo. Said reports were dismissed by a judge in June 2016, ruling they lacked evidence. The final goal of these reports was apparently to bring Podemos down and prevent a negotiation between the Pablo Iglesias party and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez.

Yesterday Pablo Iglesias testified before the Court as injured party. He could not reveal details due to sub iudice rule, but stated his commitment with the truth, justice, institutions, dirt cleansing, etcetera

Regarding Villarejo, I personally think hes best recient report has been the fact that he claims that Morocco and France's secret service did the Madrid bombings.

I have to say, that's a nice change of pace from the usual right wing "ETA did the Madrid bombings and PSOE hid the evidence" conspiracy.
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Velasco
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« Reply #107 on: March 29, 2019, 12:36:07 am »
« Edited: March 30, 2019, 01:30:33 pm by Velasco »

Regarding Villarejo, I personally think hes best recient report has been the fact that he claims that Morocco and France's secret service did the Madrid bombings.

I have to say, that's a nice change of pace from the usual right wing "ETA did the Madrid bombings and PSOE hid the evidence" conspiracy.

The claim on an alleged involvement of French and Moroccan intelligence (in partnership with ETA) is far from being new. Back in the day people like Federico Jiménez Losantos was airing that nonsense.
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coloniac
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« Reply #108 on: March 29, 2019, 04:30:43 am »

...what motive did they suggest the French and Morroccan spooks had in blowing up 200 civilians?
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tack50
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« Reply #109 on: March 29, 2019, 04:57:34 am »

...what motive did they suggest the French and Morroccan spooks had in blowing up 200 civilians?

The conspiracy tends to think that when Aznar sided with the US, UK and Poland over France and Germany when the Irak war and in other EU related votes (like the Nice treaty), France was extremely angry and wanted some sort of revenge.

Similarly, Morocco wanted revenge for the "Perejil island war". So they conspirated together to create a terrorist attack on Madrid.

The conspiracy also claims that another motive for the attack was that it would cause a change in government, with PSOE being much more friendly to French and Moroccan interests than PP.

Does it make sense? In my opinion no, but still it's a common conspiracy theory. In fact when Villarejo outed that, Vox and PP started with "11-M truthism", claiming that we don't know the full truth.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/11/actualidad/1552335784_713196.html

https://www.twitter.com/Santi_ABASCAL/status/1105000639543869440

Quote from: Santiago Abascal
15 years later we still want to know the truth about the 11-M attacks, which caused 192 deaths and a planned government change. We do not forget!
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Velasco
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« Reply #110 on: March 30, 2019, 01:56:37 pm »
« Edited: March 30, 2019, 05:27:20 pm by Velasco »

New set of polls

Metroscopia / 20 minutos

PSOE 28.7 (116-126), PP 19 (72-78), Cs 16.3 (53-62), UP 14 (35-41), VOX 11.7 (30-37), Others 11.3 (29-31)*

* ERC 14, CDC (JxCAT) 6, PNV 6, EH Bildu 2-4, CC 1

IMOP 7 El Confidencial

PSOE 31 (133), PP 20 (77), Cs 14.9 (53), UP 11.9 (28), VOX 10.1 (27), ERC 3.3 (14), JxCAT 1.3 (4), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), EH Bildu 1.1 (3), Compromis 0.7 (3), PACMA 2 (1), CC ? (1)

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

PSOE 27 (110-115). PP 22.9 (93-95), Cs 16.7 (56-59), UP 12.1 (31-33), VOX 9.1 (18-20), ERC 2.8 (11-13), JxCAT 1.7 (5), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), Compromis 1.6 (4-5), EH Bildu 0.7 (2-3), En Marea 0.7 (3), N+ 0.5 (1), CC 0.3 (1)

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tack50
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« Reply #111 on: March 30, 2019, 02:33:22 pm »

After this, I don't think there's any pollster showing a right wing majority in terms of seats. Although all but one pollster do show a right wing victory in the popular vote, generally around 6 points or so.
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Velasco
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« Reply #112 on: March 30, 2019, 04:19:51 pm »

There was a Vox rally in Barcelona this morning, with the presence of the leading figures of the far-right party. Attendance was estimated at 15k by organizers and only 5k by the local police. Pro-independence and far-left groups, namely the CDR (Committeesfor the Defense of the Republic), called a counter demonstration in protest. The Mossos de Esquadra (regional police) prevented that Vox supporters and pro-independence groups clashed. According to La Vanguardia at least 7 people were arrested in the incidents between the Mossos and the pro-independence protesters. Vox advocates the suppression of regional police, as well as the suspension of regional autonomy, the ban of pro-independence parties and so on.

The most relevant political issue right now concerns the revelations on the dirty war launched by the Villarejo's patriotic brigade against Podemos

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553846581_687820.html

Quote
In April 2016, with the Popular Party (PP) in power, high-ranking officials at the Spanish Interior Ministry granted an extraordinary residency permit to a Venezuelan national who had been cooperating as a police informer in a political dirty war against the left-wing Podemos party.

This warfare is attributed to the so-called “Patriotic Brigade,” a group of officers who allegedly engaged in irregular activities during Mariano Rajoy’s first term in office in an attempt to damage the reputation of the PP’s political rivals (...)

Some bizarre statements made by the son of former PM Adolfo Suárez, who runs in the second position of the PP list for Madrid, raised controversy. Apparently Neanderthals were pro-choice

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553847183_963327.html

Quote
Spain’s conservative Popular Party (PP) is once again in hot water after its new congressional candidate made a series of incendiary claims about abortion. Adolfo Súarez Illana – who is the eldest son of Spain’s first democratically elected prime minister after the 1975 transition to democracy, Adolfo Suárez Gonález – stated on Thursday that “abortion has been around for 100,000 years. The Neanderthals also used it. But they waited for the baby to be born and cut off its head." (...)

This article about the animal welfare PACMA might be interesting for someone

https://www.politico.eu/article/pacma-animal-rights-party-spain-rise-of-the-spanish-vegans/

Quote
Green parties have been gaining ground in countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, but Spain's environmentalists have struggled to attract voters. That's changing, thanks to a radical animal rights party.

Pacma — which promotes veganism to fight global warming and wants to ban zoos, circuses, bullfighting, fishing and hunting — is predicted to send one or two MEPs to the European Parliament in May, joining a small club of animal rights parties with a representative in the European assembly (the Dutch Party for the Animals and Germany's Human Environment Animal Protection.)

But while in those countries and elsewhere, traditional green parties are far more popular than animal rights groups, Pacma is on track to become the closest thing Spain has to a viable environmentalist party (...)

After this, I don't think there's any pollster showing a right wing majority in terms of seats. Although all but one pollster do show a right wing victory in the popular vote, generally around 6 points or so.

I think NC Report for La Razón still does. Anyway Francisco Marhuenda is a PP hack.

Given that there's one month left and that's a very long time in modern politics, nothing can be taken for granted. I think the main risk for the PSOE is that Podemos collapses completely, to the point that socialists get isolated in parliament. In case UP resists in the 11-12 pp soil, PSOE is around 30 pp and the right-wing vote remains fragmented, everyhing  is going reasonably well for Sánchez. The worst thing that socialists could do is getting too confident, though
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tack50
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« Reply #113 on: April 02, 2019, 10:03:14 am »

The aquienvoto test for who you should vote for has been updated with questions and parties for 2019.

www.aquienvoto.org

Here are my results:

ERC: 64%
PSOE: 62%
UP: 62%
Bildu: 60%
PNV: 59%
PDECat: 55%
Cs: 49%
PP: 43%
Vox: 30%

Honestly very surprised to see ERC on top and UP tied with PSOE. Everything else as expected though.
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Velasco
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« Reply #114 on: April 02, 2019, 02:01:16 pm »

UP 84%
PSOE 79%
EH Bildu 78%
ERC 70%
EAJ-PNV 56%
PDeCAT 54%
Cs 44%
PP 28%
VOX 17%
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bigic
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« Reply #115 on: April 02, 2019, 02:15:29 pm »

My results:
EAJ-PNV 67,39%
Ciudadanos 58,95%
PDeCAT 56,99%
PSOE 51,58%
ERC 47,37%
PP 45,92%
EH Bildu 45,26%
UP 43,16%
Vox 30,77%

My "spider" compared to EAJ-PNV's


Compared to that of Ciudadanos
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« Reply #116 on: April 03, 2019, 11:52:50 am »

UP 76%
EH Bildu 74%
ERC 73%
PSOE 71%
PDeCAT 65%
EAJ-PNV 62%
Cs 48%
PP 28%
Vox 21%
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jeron
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« Reply #117 on: April 03, 2019, 12:32:36 pm »

PSOE 68%
C 66%
UP 55%
PP 43%
Vox 34%
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« Reply #118 on: April 03, 2019, 01:09:18 pm »

PP: 68
C's: 60
VOX: 56
PSOE: 48
Unidos Podemos: 32

Can't vote anyway, so...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #119 on: April 03, 2019, 01:11:00 pm »
« Edited: April 03, 2019, 01:14:09 pm by DavidB. »

Vox 71%
PP 68%
Cs 52%
PSOE 47%
EAJ-PNV 40%
PDeCat 37%
ERC 33%
UP 30%
EH Bildu 22%

Clearly most aligned with Vox and PP. Differences: Vox is more economically right-wing and more opposed to decentralization/autonomy for separatists than I am (I don't think rolling back already existing types of decentralization will be conducive in any way), which is no surprise. On the other hand I'm apparently even more pro-law and order than them.

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parochial boy
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« Reply #120 on: April 03, 2019, 01:40:41 pm »



didn't realise I was such a law and order hawk Unsure
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Velasco
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« Reply #121 on: April 03, 2019, 05:37:07 pm »

I didn't realise I was such a law and order hawk Unsure

Your "spider web" web is very similar to mine when I took the test yesterday.  I don't think I'm a hawkish person, but I know there's a difference between liberty and libertarianism Wink

I have many coincidences with EH Bildu and ERC, regardless the national question. I'm not hawkish on issues like the implementation of article 155 in Catalonia, which I strongly oppose because I consider undesirable a permanent state of emergency. I recall I had a 100% match with EH Bildu on environmental policies, but only 40% pn decentralization. Maybe the reason is that I voted "neutral" on the indy ref question, mostly because of boredom and bad precedents (Brexit, Colombia plebiscite)  
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« Reply #122 on: April 03, 2019, 06:45:01 pm »


PSOE 70%
Cs 59%
Podemos 56%
PP 53%
PDeCat 53%
ERC 51%
EH Bildu 50%
EAJ-PNV 48%
VOX 44%
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« Reply #123 on: April 03, 2019, 11:30:39 pm »

EH Bildu 82%
Unidos Podemos 81%
ERC 74%
PSOE 64%
PNV 61%
PDeCAT 58%
Ciudadanos 51%
PP 24%
Vox 17%

Not sure how much got lost in translation, but this seems accurate.
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« Reply #124 on: April 04, 2019, 02:27:45 am »

PP 63%
EAJ-PNV 62.7%
PDeCat 58%
ERC 53%
Ciudadanos 52%
PSOE 51%
Podemos 48%
EH Bildu 46%
Vox 37%

What a strange result. I didn't think I'd still end up with PP with all my decentralist answers.
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