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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 38898 times)
generalpepito
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« Reply #125 on: April 04, 2019, 03:11:51 pm »

EAJ PNV: 54%
Ciudadanos: 52,3%
PSOE: 50%
PP: 47,8%
Vox: 46,4%
ERC: 45,3%
PDeCat: 44,8%
UP: 42,3%
EH Bildu: 41,4%
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Velasco
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« Reply #126 on: April 05, 2019, 06:21:04 am »
« Edited: April 05, 2019, 06:47:02 am by Velasco »

CEO* poll

Spanish genereal election in Catalonia (2016 seats in brackets):

ERC 24.5% 15 seats (9)
PSC-PSOE 23.7% 11-13 seats (7)
ECP 15.4% 7-9 seats (12)
 JxCAT 12.1% 5-7 seats ( 8 )
Cs 11.7% 5-6 seats (5)
PP 5.9% 2 seats (6)
FR** 2.5% 0-1 seat
Vox does not appear

Parliament of Catalonia (2017 seats in brackets)

ERC 40-43 (32)
Cs 28-29 (36)
JxCAT 22-24 (34)
PSC 21-23 (17)
CatComú-Podem 8-9 ( 8 )
CUP 8 (4)
PP 3-4 (4)

* CEO is a sociological institute depending on the Catalan government, the equivalent to the Spanish CIS

** Front Republicá ("Republican Front") is a far-left separatist coalition that incorporates a faction of the CUP. The top candidate for Barcelona is Albano Dante Fachín, a former leader of Podemos in Catalonia born in Argentina. The candidate of En Comú Podem (ECP) for Barcelona is Jaume Asens, a philosopher and political scientist who is councilor in the Barcelona City Hall. This candidacy raised some opposition within Podemos because Asens is pro-independence.

The other top candidates running for Barcelona province are:

Oriol Junqueras: ERC leader and fromer deputy premier, who is being tried before the Supreme Court

Public Administrations minister Meritxell Batet for the PSC-PSOE

Former leader of the pro-independence organization ANC (Catalan National Assembly) Jordi Sánchez for JxCAT. He is in preventive detention and being tried like the ERC leader.

Opposition leader in the Parliament of Catalonia and Cs national spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas

Journalist and historian Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo for the PP, a hardliner against separatism

Previous general election polls in Catalonia predict a tight ERC-PSC contest

Recently Pedro Sánchez compared the Catalan secessionist bid with Brexit, arguing that both are based on lies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/03/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-brexit-catalan-independence-bid-both-based-on-lies

Quote
pain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has compared Brexit to the failed push for Catalan independence, warning that “engaging in campaigns or political projects based on lies eventually leads societies down a blind alley”.

Renewing his appeal for the UK to accept the EU’s withdrawal deal, Sánchez said he saw clear parallels between the rhetoric that drove the Brexit debate and the arguments used in the regional independence campaign that plunged Spain into its worst crisis in four decades.

“The techniques of the Catalan independence movement are very similar to those of [Nigel] Farage and other ultra-conservative leaders who have defended Brexit,” he said.
Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing
Read more

“They say, ‘Europe’s stealing from us!’, or ‘Spain is stealing from us!’, or, ‘If we had more economic resources …’. At the end of the day, I think that engaging in campaigns or political projects based on lies eventually leads societies down a blind alley and that’s really hard to manage.” (...)

 

The PSOE electoral slogan was presented this week. Its translation is "Make It Happen" ("Haz Que Pase") and apparently is inspired in a scene of the film Titanic, or at least that's what the Govt spokeswoman told to the press. The message it tries to convey is that people can make possible a better Spain by turning out and voting for the socialists. However, the double meaning of the sentence and the Titanic reference were ammunition for the PP. The campaign of the conservative party replied with comparisons between the government and the Titanvic sinking and sentences in the style of "haz que se pase pronto", whose translation could be "make the government to pass quickly"
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tack50
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« Reply #127 on: April 06, 2019, 11:29:26 am »

It's been almost 3 years since the 2016 general election, but El País has published a map of results and turnout by precinct for the 2016 general election.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/28/actualidad/1553783809_455746.html

Really interesting map tbh, I only wish we had an option to show the party results directly as well, but extremely interesting nontheless.
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tack50
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« Reply #128 on: April 07, 2019, 06:31:54 pm »

3 new polls tonight:

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 31% (138)
PP 21% (88)
Cs 15% (48)
UP 12% (29)
Vox 10% (17)

ERC 13
PNV 6
JxCat 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
CC 1
Compromis 1

Right wing bloc: 46% (155 including N+)
Left wing bloc: 43% (167)
PSOE+Cs: 46% (186)

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 30% (130)
PP 21% (86)
Cs 15% (49)
UP 12% (31)
Vox 11% (22)

ERC 14
JxCat 5
(other nationalists unespecified)

Right wing bloc: 46% (157)
Left wing bloc: 42% (161)
PSOE+Cs: 44% (179)

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE 27% (110)
PP 24% (100)
Cs 16% (56)
UP 12% (30)
Vox 9% (21)

ERC 12
PNV 6
JxCat 5
Compromís 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
En Marea 2
CC 1

Right wing bloc: 50% (178 including NS+)
Left wing bloc: 39% (140)
PSOE+Cs: 43% (166)

NC Report is the only one still giving the right a majority, though still all give the right very healthy leads in the popular vote. Of course because of vote splitting and the fact that no nationalist parties will make deals with PP-Cs-Vox, they don't just need to win, they need to win a landslide to get an overall majority, which seems hard.

2 of the 3 polls give a hypothetical PSOE+Cs government a majority. While ruled out by Cs, I think it's a very likely possibility. Even if they fall short by a handful of seats, I wouldn't completely rule out a PNV abstention or support by CC or N+

Finally, a PSOE+UP+nationalist government is possible in 2 polls as well, but I wouldn't trust that government to happen unless Sánchez gives Catalonia a referendum (not happening) or they win big enough that PNV support would be enough on its own. Maaaybe ERC could abstain, but I wouldn't trust that at all.

If the right doesn't get a majority, and neither Cs nor the Catalans give up, then we will see repeat elections.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #129 on: April 07, 2019, 06:40:27 pm »

Why is the right losing support?
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bigic
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« Reply #130 on: April 07, 2019, 07:34:14 pm »

Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?
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Velasco
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« Reply #131 on: April 08, 2019, 02:40:37 am »
« Edited: April 08, 2019, 04:03:55 am by Velasco »


The GAD3 and the GESOP polls indicate a level of support similar to the 2016 elections (PP+Cs 46%, PSOE+UP 43%), so the right is not losing much support. The problem for the right is that now it's splitted in three and the electoral system penalizes dispersion. Leaving aside some centre-left voters returning to PSOE over the Cs turn to the right, according to pollsters  most of the vote transfers are taking place within blocs. Cs boosted past year taking advantage of the PP collapse, as it was the natural choice for voters right of the centre disgruntled over the crisis in Catalonia or the corruption scandals. Now many voters are switching from Cs to Vox, attracted either by radicalism or by novelty. Polls say that Vox has slowed its growth, but there can be no assurance with this party. Apparently the PP has stopped falling and is stable on a 20-21 pp soil. Another factor to take into account is the mobilization of left-wing voters, becasue they are more prone to abstain if they feel disappointed. In the 2016 elections UP lost 1 million of voters in comparison with the Podemos and IU results in 2015 and the correlation between blocs was reversed (PSOE+Podemos+IU got 46% in 2015, PP+Cs got below 43%). It seems the fear of Vox might help to mobilize the left, but that's uncertain. Also, there is a sizeable amount of undecided voters that will make their decision in the final days. The last campaign days after Easter holidays will be decisive.

Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?

No. EH Bildu voted the no confidence motion against Rajoy, but later rejected any type of cooperation with the PSOE government. The Bildu folks are at the very least as radically pro-independence as the Puigdemont supporters. Anyway the correlation of forces makes EH Bildu much less relevant than the PNV and the Catalan nationalists.

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Michael19754
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« Reply #132 on: April 08, 2019, 06:35:48 am »

The debate over euthanasia has been dominating the news cycle for the past few days. The cause of this is the assisted suicide performed by Ángel Hernández on his wife María José Carrasco, who was suffering from multiple sclerosis and had asked her husband multiple times to help her commit suicide in order to end the pain she was suffering. During the last days before the event Ángel recorded multiple videos in which he mantains conversations with his wife about her situation and her wishes, and in the last two videos he asks her wether she is ready to die (she says the sooner the better) and finally Ángel helps her ingest potassium chloride, effectively killing her. He immediatly turned himself in to the police and spent the night in jail, but he was released the next day without charges.
PM Sánchez later said in an interview in Telecinco that he was 'overwhelmed' by the images and he promised to regulate euthanasia if he's re-elected, while at the same time he criticised parliamentary obstructionism on the issue by C's and PP.
UP is following more or less the same line as PSOE.
C's has performed a flip-flop of sorts. The party now says it wants a cross-party consensus to legalize assisted suicide but on very limited circumstances, even though they blocked the grand total of 19 times a bill proposed by the government that would've have allowed the practice.
Meanwhile PP and Vox say they remain diametrically opposed to euthanasia and have supported palliative care instead.
Polls say that over 80% of Spaniards are in favor of euthanasia. The unexpected entrance of euthanasia in the public debate a few weeks before an election that was supposed to be about Catalonia and Spanish unity seems to be very good news for the left, which is being very successful in setting the tone of the campaign.
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tack50
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« Reply #133 on: April 08, 2019, 06:36:09 am »


Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?

No. EH Bildu voted the no confidence motion against Rajoy, but later rejected any type of cooperation with the PSOE government. The Bildu folks are at the very least as radically pro-independence as the Puigdemont supporters. Anyway the correlation of forces makes EH Bildu much less relevant than the PNV and the Catalan nationalists.



Actually, I do believe EH Bildu would be more likely to support a Sánchez government than the Catalans (especially than JxCat, who seems very radicalized and almost as gone as CUP. You know things are bad when ERC, the tradicinally hardcore independence party are now the moderates).

While Bildu is just as radically-pro independence as the Catalans, their rethoric is a lot more concilliatory. In a way, they remind me of ERC circa 2004; which did support Zapatero's first government. They clearly want to be decisive in Sánchez's government judging from some of Otegui's remarks.

The main issue in my opinion with Bildu is not the fact that they are pro-independence, but instead their very clear ties to ETA.

The image of PSOE being propped up by the same guys who 10 years ago cheered whenever a Socialist councillor was murdered by ETA would be a very hard one to swallow, even more so than doing deals with the Catalans.


I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

A good example of how this election might turn out could be a "reverse 1996". In 1996 the left (PSOE+IU) very clearly beat the right (PP) 48-39. However because of vote splitting, PSOE+IU didn't have a majority and Aznar was able to get in government propped up by nationalists.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #134 on: April 08, 2019, 07:46:34 am »


I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

How does vote splitting affect the result? Is it because there are three competitive parties on the right and only two on the left?
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tack50
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« Reply #135 on: April 08, 2019, 08:19:04 am »


I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

How does vote splitting affect the result? Is it because there are three competitive parties on the right and only two on the left?

Yes, pretty much. Plus the fact that PSOE is ahead and the fact that UP seems to be holding around 13% so it gets penalized less than Vox (but more than Cs). Of course there's also a chance that polls are wrong and Vox gets less penalized than we expect.

It seems that for the most part it will be small provinces with a handful of seats that will decide the results. And in those provinces very small even swings can have dramatic effects. Here's an article explaining it, with a diagram:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/02/actualidad/1551556252_287887.html



This is an estimate of how many seats in small provinces (between 1 and 5 seats; which count up to 99 seats in total) each party would get depending on their national vote.

As you can see, small increases or decreases in the popular vote nationally mean very large swings.
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Velasco
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« Reply #136 on: April 09, 2019, 01:50:40 pm »

CIS mega-survey released today. Even though the vote estimation is controversial, there is a lot of interesting data. The sample size is massive and there are seat projections for every province, which must be taken with a grain of salt but give some clues on a number of issues (for instance, the geographical distribution of the Vox support)

Provinces where Vox has chances of winning seats. The result in Barcelona could be a shock


Catalonia: ERC landslide, PSC resurrection, En Comú Podem and JxCAT lose ground, mediocre results for Cs, Vox amazement, PP on the verge of extinction and PACMA could get in


[/center]
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parochial boy
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« Reply #137 on: April 09, 2019, 02:42:01 pm »

Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?
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Velasco
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« Reply #138 on: April 09, 2019, 05:07:50 pm »

Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?

Vox is a new party and its strength by regions is yet unknown. However, Vox is mostly a split of the PP and the vote patterns in the Andalusian elections suggest the far right party is stronger in the places where PP is traditionally strong. Extrapolating to the rest of Spain, most of the analyses and predictions point that Vox has better chances in regions that lean PP in general elections like Madrid, Valencia or Murcia. On the opposite side, Vox is expected to perform poorly in peripheral regions with proper language like Basque Country and Navarre, as well in Catalonia and Galicia (despite the latter is a traditional PP stronghold). So according to these expectations, Vox winning 3 seats in Barcelona would be a shocking result. Notice that Vox does not appear in the results of the CEO poll that I posted before. One of these two is going to be wrong. 

 The link between Catalonia and Valencia is complex. The Valencian region has a proper language that is a variation of the Catalan language, although there are Castilian speaking areas within the region (inland and southern sections). These linguistic zones are usually related to colonization in the Middle Ages after the Reconquista, either with Catalan or Aragonese settlers. There are two opposing political traditions in Valencia, one is Catalan-friendly and the other is fiercely anti-Catalan (Blaverism). Compromís could be an example of regionalist party of the first tradition and the historical Unió Valenciana of the second (UV formed electoral alliance and later merged with the PP). The Catalan nationalists ERC and the CUP have branches in Valencia, but they are rather marginal. Obviously Vox could garner a strong support among the anti-Catalan sector of the population.
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tack50
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« Reply #139 on: April 09, 2019, 05:34:58 pm »

Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?

Honestly, if we have to take the CIS poll at large with a bit of caution, the province/regional crosstabs should be taken with a ton of caution. Valencia is not the worst offender, IMO Barcelona would be (no way Vox is that high in Barcelona, even with an abysmal PP candidate)

If we are trying to analyze Vox's impact in Valencia, I would instead look at polls for the regional election which takes place the same day. Last poll (from late March) seems to point out this:

PSOE: 29%
PP: 22%
Cs: 15%
Compromís: 14%
Vox: 7%
UP: 6%

Granted, this is not a particularly great indicator as there will be quite a bit of split ticket voting; particularly for Compromís, but I could also see it happening with Vox.

I actually think Vox will slightly underperform or perform roughly on par with their national results in Valencia.

They might get plenty of seats though, since both Valencia and Alicante have quite a bit of seats (15 and 12 respectively). I could easily see Vox getting 2 in each province.
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Velasco
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« Reply #140 on: April 10, 2019, 12:16:22 am »

Frankenstein, ETA and the eight-headed serpent: the verbal aggression of Pablo Casado might be an act of desperation

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/09/inenglish/1554792934_759961.html

Quote
In March 1996, the governing Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) commissioned a campaign video that depicted its rival Popular Party (PP) as an enemy of progress, and illustrated the idea with ominous black-and-white images that included a large barking dog. The TV ad about “the Socialist doberman” made waves at the time, but these days it wouldn’t even scare kindergartners (...)

The term “Frankenstein government” has already become commonplace, following last year’s successful no-confidence vote against the PP’s Mariano Rajoy. The motion was led by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez with support from a loose coalition of leftist and regional parties, including Catalan separatists. This led critics to compare a hypothetical executive made up of all these varied groups with Mary Shelley’s famous patchwork monster.

And now comes “the eight-headed Hydra,” in the words of PP leader Pablo Casado, who used this figure from Greek mythology at a Barcelonarally on Monday, when he listed some the “heads” on this serpent-shaped monster: “Separatists, coup-plotters, terrorists, communists, Chavistas, Castro sympathizers...”

Honestly, if we have to take the CIS poll at large with a bit of caution, the province/regional crosstabs should be taken with a ton of caution. Valencia is not the worst offender, IMO Barcelona would be (no way Vox is that high in Barcelona, even with an abysmal PP candidate)

I think Vox will win seats in Barcelona. Maybe 1 or 2 instead of 3, I don't know. The relative success of PxC (Platform for Catalonia) in some local elections years ago suggests there's some ground for a xenophobic far-right party that advocates a radical Spanish nationalism, especially in the Metropolitan region of Barcelona. The CEO poll must be wrong
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rob in cal
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« Reply #141 on: April 10, 2019, 01:05:28 am »

  So in some of the 3 and 4 seat districts it would make sense for Vox and UP voters to vote tactically for either the PP or PSOE, if they want to help the bigger party closer to them on the ideology scale and when their party has a low chance to win one of the seats. Has tactical voting like this occured in recent Spanish elections?
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tack50
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« Reply #142 on: April 10, 2019, 03:42:41 am »

  So in some of the 3 and 4 seat districts it would make sense for Vox and UP voters to vote tactically for either the PP or PSOE, if they want to help the bigger party closer to them on the ideology scale and when their party has a low chance to win one of the seats. Has tactical voting like this occured in recent Spanish elections?

Oh, absolutely. Before 2015 tactical voting was extremely common among IU voters, often voting PSOE as the lesser evil. 2008 being the greatest example
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Velasco
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« Reply #143 on: April 11, 2019, 06:55:52 am »
« Edited: April 11, 2019, 02:56:33 pm by Velasco »

Today the CIS released a poll for the Valencian regional elections taking place on the same date as the general elections. The PSPV-PSOE led by premier Ximo Puig appears as the clear winner


GAD3 conducted a poll for Las Provincias local newspaper (March 31) with the following estimation:

PSPV-PSOE 28.8% (33), PP 22.4% (24), Cs 14.6% (15), Compromís 14.4% (13-14), VOX 7.1% (7-8), UP 6.7% (5-7)

I'd say PP is too low in the CIS poll and VOX is too low in both


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« Reply #144 on: April 11, 2019, 08:34:50 am »

and there is no way that cs will be that high in valencia
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tack50
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« Reply #145 on: April 11, 2019, 09:17:50 am »

Actually, Cs' number seems alright.

However, the poll taken at large is complete junk. Their general election poll was surprisingly reasonable, but there's no way the left wins a landslide this big in Valencia.

Valencia is still, at best, a community roughly around the national average; and all election polls are predicting a right wing victory in the popular vote; and vote splitting won't hurt the right all that much in the regional election compared to the national election (Remember even Castellón gives out 24 seats in the regional election; compared to 5 in the national one)

Yes, there will be split ticket voting, especially regarding Compromís, and that split ticket voting will help the left, but the Valencian election is no better than a tossup for the left, and I'm even tempted to give PP a small advantage.

Anyways, my ratings for the 28th of April elections since the campaign will start tonight at midnight:

General election (largest party): Likely PSOE
General election (largest bloc, popular vote): Likely right wing bloc
General election (largest bloc, seats): Lean right wing bloc

General election (most likely government): Lean new election (if we get a government, it's lean PSOE-Cs)

Valencian election (largest party): Likely PSOE
Valencian election (likeliest government): Tossup
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tack50
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« Reply #146 on: April 11, 2019, 09:25:06 am »

Also, we have now confirmed that there will be a single main debate during the campaign. All 5 main party leaders (Sánchez, Casado, Rivera, Iglesias and Abascal) will be invited and have confirmed they will go.

The debate will be hosted by private broadcaster Atresmedia, the ones in charge of the main 4-way 2015 debate as well.

There was also an offer to do a 4 way debate (without Vox) on the public broadcaster TVE, but Sánchez allegedly refused. The thing about TVE is that they have to be (even more) impartial than private broadcasters, so they were only allowed to invite parties with seats in Congress.

Of course, there will be more debates, generally with smaller parties and surrogates for the main ones. For example in 2016 we got a "women's debate" (Andrea Levy vs Margarita Robles  vs Carolina Bescansa vs Inés Arrimadas) and an "economic debate" (Luis de Guindos, Jordi Sevilla, Alberto Garzón and Luis Garicano). Both also done by Atresmedia.
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« Reply #147 on: April 11, 2019, 10:47:22 am »
« Edited: April 12, 2019, 09:55:34 pm by Velasco »

Valencia is still, at best, a community roughly around the national average; and all election polls are predicting a right wing victory in the popular vote; and vote splitting won't hurt the right all that much in the regional election compared to the national election (Remember even Castellón gives out 24 seats in the regional election; compared to 5 in the national one)

Yes, there will be split ticket voting, especially regarding Compromís, and that split ticket voting will help the left, but the Valencian election is no better than a tossup for the left, and I'm even tempted to give PP a small advantage.

I think the left has a chance to retain majority in Valencia, better than some might expect. The coalition government between PSOE and Compromís has been pretty stable and reasonably efficient, to the point that some people compare the regional political situation with Portugal. The current government came after a long period of PP in power with crushing majorities, whose turbulent final period was marked by massive corruption scandals. Valencia became synonymous with cronyism, squandering and wrongdoing  3 of 4 PP premiers are charged in legal proceedings: Francisco Camps, José Luis Olivas and Eduardo Zaplana. The latter has been already 8 months in prison and is accused of hiding 20 millions abroad... The contrast with the present period is so brutal that I'd be surprised if voters forget so fast. Anyway I concur the result is likely to be tight in what regards the balance between left and the rightwing blocs. The actual Vox support is yet unknown and could make the difference as in Andalusia, but I doubt the turnout will be so depressed in the left to create a similar shock.

Just as a reminder, the previous regional election was a landslide for the left. The parties left of the centre (PSOE, Compromís, Podem and EUPV) got 55% of the vote, while the parties right of the centre (PP, Cs and UPyD) got around 40%. PACMA (0.8%) and Vox (0.4%) were under radar.

However the right performed better in general elections. In 2015 the left (Compromís-Podem, PSOE, EUPV-IU) got 49% of the vote and the right (PP, Cs) 47%. In 2016 the left (Compromis-Podem-EUPV, PSOE) got 46% and the right (PP, Cs) got 50%.

 PACMA got 1.3% in 2016 and now the CIS says the animal rights party has chances of winning a seat for Valencia in the next general election. Winning a seat in that province requires approx 5% of the vote. The PACMA seat for Barcelona seems to be easier to win, given that it requires to get 3% and the PACMA already got 1.8% in 2016.

The party just released a well crafted campaign video. The PACMA "Re-Evolution" begins to fight against the Vox "Involution"

https://pacma.es/videos/empieza-la-reevolucion/
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« Reply #148 on: April 12, 2019, 07:46:46 am »

Tonight the campaign started officially. From now on there are 15 days left for Spaniards to decide if they want Frankenstein (PSOE, UP and peripheral nationalists), the Colón Triumvirate (PP, Cs and Vox) or a repetition of elections. Isn't it an exciting perspective?

Divide and conquer: the strategy of Pedro Sánchez

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/12/inenglish/1555052464_524300.html

Quote
The two-week campaign ahead of the general election of April 28 that began today is going to be an atypical one, with many Spaniards away on their Easter vacation. Everything will come down to the last week, and the candidate debate scheduled for April 23, five days before voters go to the polls, will be a crucial moment in the race.

When Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez decided on Thursday to agree to one single five-way debate – rather than four ways, excluding the far-right Vox – it confirmed what his strategy is going to be.

After much internal discussion, the socialist leader is opting to bring together the heads of the Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Citizens) and Vox, to convince undecided leftist voters that these three right-of-center parties will govern Spain unless there is a strong turnout on April 28. Sánchez wants a new “photo of Colón,” alluding to a mass protest against his government held in February at Madrid’s Colón square, and which marked the first and up until now only time that PP and Ciudadanos leaders were pictured together with representatives from the far-right Vox.

Sánchez also wants the political right to be as fractured as possible ahead of the vote. The idea is that if all three parties have similar levels of support, it will be harder for their leader – presumably the PP – to fight the PSOE over key seats in Congress (...)

This is going to be a weird campaign. Vox leader Santiago Abascal started his triumfal tour in Covadonga, which is an appropriate choice because that location in Asturias is the site of the inaugural battle of the Reconquista, or at least that's what the national mythology says (likely the Battle of Covadonga was just a skirmish).¡Santiago y Cierra España! The campaign will coincide with the Easter holidays; the colorful Holy Week processions will take place in Andalusia as usual. The three leaders pf the Spanish Right announced their presence in the Cristo de la Buena Muerte ("Christ of the Good Death") procession taking place in Málaga, but the organizers (a confraternity called Cofradía de Mena) have requested them not to go in order to prevent the vent turns nto a campaign act. This is true Spanish folklore: the wooden sculpture of the Christ id ¡s carried on the shoulders of the brave legionaires. The Spanish Legion is a military unit made in the likeness of its French counterpart and is very linked historically to the colonial wars in Northern Morocco (Rif), the Spanish Civil War and Franco. Currently the Legión is an elite unit that takes part in UN missions abroad.

El País average polling: PSOE 29.3%, PP 19.9%, Cs 15.5%, UP 13.6%, Vox 10.7%  

Podcast in English

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/03/inenglish/1554292100_462357.html

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 30.9% (135-137). PP 21.3% ( 85-91), Cs 13.5% (43-46), UP 12% (29-30), Vox 11.2% (25-29), ERC (12-13), EAJ-PNV (6), JxCAT (4-5), EH Bildu (2), NA+ (2), Compromís (1), CC (1)

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.3% (112-117), PP 23.9% (99-102), Cs 15.9% (51-56), UP 13.1% (32-37), Vox 7.8% 812-14), ERC 2.8% (12-13), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (6), JxCAT 1.6% (5), Compromís 1.5% (4-5), Eh Bildu 0.8% (2-3), En Marea 0.5% (3), NA+ 0.5% (1), CC 0.3% (1), PACMA 1.5% (0)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #149 on: April 12, 2019, 08:42:12 pm »

Honestly, I thinks is very hard to understand the stability of Compromís, I mean, the coalition covers a broad range of movements with different views on Valencian identity (well, not blaverism), from strong Valencianism to people who want to establish the Catalan Countries. I think it is great, but also is weird in a country like Spain, where the left tends to implode and ends divided.

Also I think the Valencian Community (or Pais Valencia) is the place (with Murcia) where Cs and Vox can do really well. Both are communities with historically strong provincial PPs that governed alone for many years but now are with notorious signs of exhaustion (the case of PP in Valencia is really crazy). Right wing people in those communities now have real options. I think Cs can also exploit the language card in Valencia with some success.
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